ABN Silver Quanto Certificate NL0000401271.. a megasconto...

Silver sempre più brillante e si prevede un deficit a fine anno del 4%:

"High uptake of silver ETF seen tightening market, newsletter says
Last Update: 5:44 AM ET May 2, 2006

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The higher-than-expected uptake of Barclays' silver exchange traded fund during its first trading days are likely to make the silver market "extremely tight" in the longer term, U.S.-based newsletter Texas Hedge said.
Prior to trading start, Texas Hedge estimated over 11% of annual silver demand, or 100 million troy ounces, would be accumulated by the silver ETF in the first 18 months, judging from the trading history of U.S. gold ETFs.
However, on the first day alone, 2.342 million shares were sold.
As of Friday, 20,999,769 ounces of silver were in the trust with 2.1 million shares outstanding, the iShares Web site reported.
The ETF was launched to reflect the price of the silver held by the trust, minus expenses and liabilities, according to the trust sponsor Barclays Global Investors, a unit of Barclays PLC (BCS).
The ETF shares are backed by silver stored on behalf of the trust.
While the pace of silver accumulation would slow over time, earlier market estimates of around 4% of annual demand were inadequate, which could result in market tightness, Texas Hedge said.
Metals consultancy GFMS said identifiable inventories of silver have dwindled over the last 16 years from several billion ounces to less than 600 million ounces.
-Contact: 201-938-5400 "
 
Giornata sull'ottovalante ieri al Comex per il Silver: da 14,45 è precipitato ad un minimo di 13,05 per poi risalire e chiudere a 13,74; attualmente in Asia sta mantenendo i 13,72; UBS stima che la domanda aumenti a causa del successo dell'ETF appena lanciato:

"LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Uptake of Barclays' silver exchange traded fund is exceeding expectations and will likely reach and possibly exceed 100 million troy ounces within the first month, UBS said.
This is up from a previous UBS estimate of 60 million-100 million ounces of ETF uptake within one month.
"Our forecast will (likely) be met or exceeded within the first month of trading and our three-month forecast of $16/oz for silver may be reached within the same timeframe," UBS said in a report.
Barclays' ETF traded on the American Stock Exchange saw 21 million ounces of demand during the first trading day and has since increased to 32 million ounces.
Daily purchases would slow down but with "silver interest rates and spot silver increasing the success of the ETF appears to be a self-fulfilling prophecy," UBS said.
Spot silver last traded at $14.34/oz Wednesday, up $0.42 on the Tuesday fix.
The ETF was launched to reflect the price of the silver held by the trust, minus expenses and liabilities, according to the trust sponsor Barclays Global Investors, a unit of Barclays PLC (BCS).
The ETF shares are backed by silver stored on behalf of the trust.

-By Elisabeth Behrmann, Dow Jones Newswires; (4420) 7842 9412; elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com

Corrected may 3, 2006 12:07 ET (1607GMT)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-03-06 0756ET"
 
Ultima modifica:
Silver 13.57 13.62 ... prese di profitto a questi livelli.. i 14 e rotti sono una resistenza importante.

Silver ETF & Bolivia Confiscation

Silver Stock Report
5-2-2006
by Jason Hommel


Silver ETF


As of the close of business on Friday 4-28-06, the Barclays iShares Silver Trust ETF (Trading symbol: SLV) had nearly 21 million ounces of silver, up from 1.5 million ounces of silver when it started trading Friday morning. The Silver ETF (SLV) continues to be priced slightly higher than silver bullion spot prices; at present the ETF is at about $14.27/oz., (minus half of 1% annual fees and other expenses), while silver is at $14.18/oz. This spread, driven by market created demand for the ETF, creates the arbitrage incentive for the Silver ETF market makers to buy physical silver, in lots of about 500,000 oz. for 50,000 ETF shares, for the trust. Twenty million ounces is a shocking increase in the amount of silver purchased in a single day, and at this rate, the Trust could obtain about 100 million ounces of silver by Friday this week, and by next week, we might see a default on delivery of silver via NYMEX futures contracts! Silver moved up over $1/oz. on Friday, up again about $.50/oz. on Monday and up another $.20/oz. Tuesday.

iShares Silver Trust
http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/detail.jhtml?symbol=SLV

Frequently Asked Questions about the Silver ETF
http://www.ishares.com/material_dow.../repository/material/downloads/silver_faq.pdf

I do not personally recommend that small, individual investors buy the Silver ETF. I personally believe it is safer to own your own physical silver bullion, which you should own in case of brokerage house default, or if the markets simply stop trading for a year due to war or market meltdown. I believe the ETF is primarily for large institutional investors, who simply cannot personally move very large quantities of silver bullion that they would like to buy for investment purposes. If the price of silver stabilizes in about a month (or if market defaults on futures contracts do not take place), the Silver ETF may also be useful for large trading accounts such as IRA accounts, where it may be useful to trade into silver, instead of cash, to hold while deciding what other silver stocks to buy.

See my Brief Guide to Buying Silver:
What kind of silver, and where to get it.
http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm

----------------------

Bolivia Confiscation


In an ominous move for silver investors who own mining companies with properties in Bolivia, Bolivia nationalized (confiscated) their gas industry, on May 1st. If Bolivia does not care about property rights of natural resource investors, then silver properties are also at risk of nationalization, confiscation, or a "special tax", or some combination.

Apex, Coeur d'Alene stocks drop on Bolivia worries
http://tinyurl.com/jmhgx


NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - Stock in two silver mining companies plummeted on Tuesday amid concern that mineral-rich Bolivia would extend its nationalization from oil and gas to other natural resources.

The fears were eased somewhat when Bolivian Vice President Alvaro Garcia later ruled out mine seizures, but he said big foreign mining companies must still pay higher taxes.

"There are not going to be company expropriations, of course, but we're going to assume a greater level of state control," Garcia said on La Paz radio, one day after President Evo Morales announced nationalization of the energy sector.


Companies at risk (in my opinion, from most to least) include:

1. Apex Silver http://www.apexsilver.com/ --whose flagship property is San Cristobol in Bolivia. Apex Silver's stock plunged on the news, from $21.20/share to $13.50/share, and bounced back to $18/share after a statement by the company that no mining confiscation is anticipated. Nevertheless, why trust a known thief? Not only is Bolivia suspect, but so is Apex Silver in my opinion, which recently hedged part of its production to secure a bank loan of over $100 million. Losses on the hedges of unproduced minerals may already exceed the value of the bank loan!

2. Apogee Minerals http://www.apogeeminerals.com/ --has a primariy portfolio of exploration properties in Bolivia.

3. Coeur d'Alene Mines http://www.coeur.com/ --has one of it's most advanced development projects, San Bartolome, in Bolivia. "Leading Coeur's new growth in silver is San Bartolome, the largest new primary silver mine to be built in the Americas in decades. With construction underway, this major Bolivian silver mine is scheduled for annualized production of more than 8 million ounces of silver." Coeur has insurance against 85% of a loss through political expropriation.

4. Pan American Silver http://www.panamericansilver.com/ --one of three key development projects, the San Vicente Mine, is in Bolivia.

Potential beneficiaries of a potential Bolivian confiscation or nationalization of silver mines would likely be silver itself. After nationalization, foreign investment typically halts; which tends to prevent development of mines that may cost hundreds of millions of dollars to bring to production. With lower production of silver, or even the expectation of less silver production, higher silver prices would likely result.

Other potential beneficiaries are companies exploring in North America.

----------------------
Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" investment series, continues to write positive things about silver.

Five Factors for Favoring Silver
by Robert Kiyosaki
Tuesday, May 2, 2006
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/4027

He even mentions the Silver ETF as a positive development for higher silver prices.

He does not mention the short position at NYMEX, which recently had an open interest of 200,000 contracts, representing 1 billion ounces of silver promised to be delivered, which is nearly 1.5 years worth of annual mine production, which is a larger position than in any other commodity, while the exchange has less than 100 million ounces registered for delivery.

The Silver ETF, which is acquiring allocated physical silver, may soon bring the paper silver trading games to an abrupt end.

----------------------
I do not own any of the silver stocks mentioned in this report, nor do I own the Silver ETF (SLV); but I do own physical silver bullion and I own stocks in about 18 silver exploration companies.

This email is going out to 22,546 opt-in emails. To subscribe to receive free emails from the Silver Stock Report, please sign up your email address at silverstockreport.com

Prior emails can be found here: http://www.silverstockreport.com/ssrarchive.htm

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
 
Silver in rimonta oggi al Comex:
 

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L'argento e l'oro sono moneta... anzi la moneta !
È questo lo switch mentale che sta arrivando... e con la quantità di moneta cartacea in giro in mano ai cinesi ecc. ecc.... c'è la quasi certezza che si apprezzeranno.

Poi è vero che non danno rendimento.... ma se dai un occhiata al QUANTO sul SIlver è a sconto del 7% circa sul prezzo spot del Silver... questo significa che comprandolo oggi tra due anni alla scadenza un 7% è sicuro... inoltre non si ha il rischio di cambio... vermante conveniente oggi come oggi il QUANTO.

L'argento inoltre è un signor metallo industriale... con usi in continuo aumento.... ed è bellissimo... forse il metallo più bello (a mio avviso migliore dell'oro)... e con l'aumento di reddito in tanti paesi vi sarà anche un aumento di uso per motivi "futili"....
 
WorldLove ha scritto:
Poi è vero che non danno rendimento.... ma se dai un occhiata al QUANTO sul SIlver è a sconto del 7% circa sul prezzo spot del Silver... questo significa che comprandolo oggi tra due anni alla scadenza un 7% è sicuro... inoltre non si ha il rischio di cambio... vermante conveniente oggi come oggi il QUANTO.

Non sono d'accordo sul tuo ragionamento poichè è praticamente impossibile sapere quale sarà il prezzo del Silver tra due anni nei quali ci sta di tutto (dallo sgonfiaggio della bolla sui metalli alla guerra con l'Iran ...): renditi conto che stiamo parlando di un certificato legato al prezzo spot e non di un bond a sconto con rimborso a 100 sicuro.
 
Why Silver Prices Must Rise
(A thorough overview of the Fundamentals)


Silver Stock Report
May 6th, 2006
by Jason Hommel

http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/Why_silver_prices_must_rise.html

Since silver has recently risen so much in the past six months, from about $8 to as high as nearly $15/oz., it's time to review the fundamentals. I will back up each point with a link, so that you don't have to trust me, but so you can confirm the facts, and do your own research.

On February 3, 1998, Warren Buffet announced that Berkshire Hathaway bought 129,710,000 ounces of silver due to the fundamentals of supply and demand.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/feb03981.html


Warren wrote: In recent years, widely-published reports have shown that bullion inventories have fallen very materially, because of an excess of user-demand over mine production and reclamation. Therefore, last summer Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire, concluded that equilibrium between supply and demand was only likely to be established by a somewhat higher price.


Those reports were likely the studies by the silver institute, or the CPM group, both sponsored by the silver industry.

The survey by silverinstitute.org costs $195
http://silverinstitute.org/

The survey by cpmgroup.com costs $150, 162 pages.
http://www.cpmgroup.com/

These are the studies that show a deficit of silver for about the past 15 years. Recently, they have shown a surplus. But that term, "surplus" is misleading, and confusing. The surplus is really another term for "investor buying", and deficit means "investor selling".

The actual numbers are very rough, but about 650 million ounces of silver are mined each year, and about 200 million ounces come from scrap recycling, and about 100 million ounces used to come from investor selling, or government selling. That's a total of about 950 million ounces.

Of that, about 42% is consumed by industrial use, about 28% consumed by jewelry, 20% consumed by photography, 5% consumed in coins and medallions, and that's 95% of total available silver each year! This implies either a "surplus", or "investment demand", of about 5% of the total, or about 42 million ounces--for 2004.

In other words, there is no room in the silver market for any significant investor demand of any significant monetary or investment size, of say, over $500 million.

The main problem with these reports, I have felt, was that they were, in fact, not widely publicized. At the mining shows, I polled people who would attend my "silver investment workshops", and only about 5 people in 100 would raise their hand to indicate that they had even heard of those silver surveys by those groups.

And further, the reports had a bias against guessing about potential monetary demand, even to this day, describing investment demand as a "surplus". That one word is clearly a biased term, since it implies that the world has more silver than it knows what to do with. But if investors cannot find, or cannot buy, as much as they would like, then we do not have any surplus, there is a shortage!

Here are two U.S. Government produced reports on silver, containing data from 1900, on U.S. & world production, and U.S. consumption, and U.S. industry & government stockpiles.

Report #1
http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/USsilver.xls
Report #2
http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/USsilver2.xls

I evaluated these government reports in my silver stock report #36.
http://www.silverstockreport.com/reports/silverstockreport36.htm

In sum, we are running out of silver. The U.S. government had over 3 billion ounces of silver in 1940, and today, has very little left, or none.

On May 14th, 2004, the silver shortage was confirmed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a 9-page report that outlined the known facts of the bullish case for silver. They failed, in my opinion, to defend the excessive short positions and unfair rules in futures trading as "non-manipulative".
http://www.cftc.gov/files/opa/press04/opasilverletter.pdf

The CFTC is supposed to oversee and prevent market manipulation and defaults.

Michael Gorham, director of the CFTC, wrote that a short side price manipulation could not persist for long, as long as there is "unrestricted access to the market, [because] many knowledgeable and well-capitalized traders would readily buy any silver offered at artificially low prices." (4th paragraph, page 5) Michael Gorham, in the same report, in paragraph 3 on page 8, then contradicted his earlier statement by defending the position limits that prevent unrestricted access to the silver market. Michael Gorham then resigned from the CFTC about 3 weeks later.

Limits, of course, are evidence of shortages, by definition. Limits on what you can buy with your own money are a severe restriction of freedom, and are thus totally contrary to basic free market principles. Limits are a manipulation, and distortion of freedom.

What are the position limits? At the NYMEX, there is a position limit of 1500 contracts per person or entity per month (which is a limit of 7.5 million oz. of silver). Furthermore, total silver deliveries to all market participants may be limited to 1.5 million ounces in any given delivery month! Apparently, sellers can sell as many contracts as they wish, but buyers are severely limited.

These limits prevent large billionaires, such as Warren Buffet, from accumulating 100 million ounces of silver. He was very wise, and fortunate to acquire what he was able to buy. Some of you may think that is a good thing to restrict large buyers. But, in reality, restricting market freedom creates market distortions. In fact, the limits actually discourage large investment. And the functioning futures market gives the impression that plenty of silver is available.

And this brings me to the other bias. You, or more accurately, they, THEY, can sell silver that does not exist. Short sellers do not need to have silver, in order to make a promise for delivery and enter into a futures contract. How can they do that? Easy. Just promise. Just like a dollar is a promise. Just like politicians make promises. And just like those promises are broken, so, too, with the silver futures contract promises.

As long as investors don't take delivery of physical silver, they can get away with it. For a long time, only 1% of futures contracts resulted in delivery. Today, it is increasing toward 10% or more, which is growing ominous.

How many promises are made? You have to look at the total open interest in the CFTC Commitment of Traders report.
http://www.321gold.com/cot_silver.html

That report, as of May 6th, 2006, shows, in the bottom right corner: Open Interest: 167,853. That's how many futures contracts are "open", and each contract is for 5000 ounces. So that's 837 million ounces of silver, promised to be delivered, on the NYMEX. But how much do they have to deliver?

How much silver is available? At the NYMEX, they tell you.
http://www.nymex.com/sil_fut_wareho.aspx
as of close of business: 05/05/2006
Total Registered 72,827,606
Total Eligible 50,800,886
"Registered" means that the silver is ready to be delivered against a silver futures contract--but this, in no way implies that the owners want to sell it immediately, it could be held for long term investment.
"Eligible" means it is not yet registered for delivery, and may be held by longer-term investors.

Clearly, they cannot deliver over 800 million ounces, when they barely have 100 million ounces altogether or much less (as much of that silver could be held by long term investors who may be reading this report). This means that if the paper longs ask for, and pay for, full delivery, it could in what they call a "short squeeze", or "corner", where the price will rise furiously fast. The shorts must buy back, or "cover", their "naked" positions in the silver futures contracts, at, potentially higher and higher prices, or even at prices that may well rise further than we can imagine. If the longs ask for more silver than is available, and do not sell, then it becomes impossible to cover or deliver, and then, some people will not get their silver. If silver cannot be delivered, it's called a market default, like a bankruptcy. A silver short would then lose everything he possesses; his house, car, boat, yacht, trading account, business, everything.

Trading in futures contracts is how Barrings Bank, an institution with about $500 million and about a hundred year history went bankrupt by one trader in Singapore, which you can see in the movie, "Rogue Trader", starring Ewan McGregor. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00002RAPA/002-0662496-8392024?v=glance&n=130

NYMEX is not the only place where silver futures are traded in the world. There is also the London Metal Exchange (LME) http://www.lme.co.uk/ , which is reported to have even more paper trading, and even less physical silver. The third largest exchanges is the Shanghai Metal Exchange (SHME) There is also, the Toyko Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). http://www.tocom.or.jp/ There are also other, newer futures exchanges such as in Dubai http://www.dmcc.ae/COMMODITIES_DGandCE.htm . There is also the "over the counter" market, which is unregulated. I suppose if you buy silver from a local coin shop, and he promises to deliver silver in 3 days, that is also a type of unregulated futures contract.

Various experts have maintained that the entire world supply of above ground, refined, deliverable silver is about 300 million ounces.

Others have estimated that the remaining above ground silver may be as large as 4 billion ounces, with humanity having consumed as much as 37 billion ounces out of 40 billion ounces of silver mined in all of human history.

Most silver has been consumed in the age of electronics, which began right after World War II, and since then, modern industrialized nations have consumed about 6/10ths of an ounce of silver, per person, per year.

Ominously, this week, 42 million ounces of silver were bought by the Silver ETF in the first 5 days of trading!
http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/detail.jhtml;jsessionid=ORYNUXAJS2FX4RJUMRFRBGSFGQ0BYD50?symbol=SLV

Some people are extremely skeptical that the Silver ETF custodian has actually received physical silver yet, myself included. I think the "Authorized Participants" who sell iShares, and who must deliver silver, have bought paper contracts, as that is what it says they can do in the Barclays iShares Silver Trust SEC Application (June 2005) http://tinyurl.com/aowb7

See page 23 in the Application, "Deposit of Silver; Issuance of Baskets of iShares." It says:


If the trustee accepts the purchase order, it will transmit to the Authorized Participant, via facsimile or electronic mail message, no later than 5:00 p.m. (New York time) on the date such purchase order is received, or deemed received, a copy of the purchase order endorsed “Accepted” by the trustee and indicating the Basket Silver Amount that the Authorized Participant must deliver to the custodian in exchange for each Basket.


In other words, Barclays, the trustee, accepts a purchase order, and then issues iShares. The trustee does not first receive silver, and then issue iShares, they issue iShares first, upon receipt of a purchase order to buy silver! So, a potential market maker for the Silver ETF first buys futures contracts, then presents the futures contracts to the Silver ETF, and then gets iShares to sell, which are sold immediately to people who buy the Silver ETF.

It takes a long, long time, to arrange physical delivery of 42 million ounces of silver. It took CEF, the Central Fund of Canada, months to acquire 8 million ounces, and transportation arrangements take time. A convoy of up to 50 armored trucks takes time to arrange, as well as the decoy convoys. Due to the excess paper futures contracts, I wonder if the custodian of the ETF will actually end up taking delivery, without creating a short squeeze, or market default.

Thus, within a month or so, more or less, I suppose it's quite possible to see silver prices hit as high as $35 per ounce, or higher. After all, oil went up from $10 to $70, and if silver moved up 7 times like that, it would move up from $5 to $35, just to keep up with oil.

Most interestingly, this kind of price action was feared by the Silver User's Association, who opposed the creation of the Silver ETF, and who asked the SEC to not approve this ETF.
http://www.silverusersassociation.org/pubpol/050711_eft.shtml


The SUA's position: "The Silver Users Association opposes the creation of a silver ETF because of the concerns that doing so will require the holding of physical silver be held in allocated accounts, thus removing large amounts of silver from the market. By doing so, the ETF will cause a shortage of silver in the marketplace."


Now, I'm not predicting that silver will rise to $35 and stop. Oh no. Why would it? Would the shortage somehow miraculously end? No. Would the demand by industry suddenly stop? No.

Demand is inelastic. Such small quantities of silver are used in electronic switches that a rise in the silver price will have little effect on demand. A washing machine uses about 15-20 silver-coated switches. Will people stop buying washing machines? The Chinese are now probably buying and producing more washing machines than in the U.S.!

Supply is also inelastic. 70% of silver produced each year comes to market as a by-product of gold, copper, zinc, or lead mining. Further, new silver mines, or any new mines, in most cases, take years to go from exploration to production, from 5 to 10 to even 15 years. Some of the best silver projects today were first explored in the last silver boom, in 1980. In fact, the year 1980 saw less silver production than 1979. Mine supply comes on stream rather slowly.

Oil is different from silver. As oil prices rise, people begin to think about alternatives such as nuclear, wind, solar, or newer technologies, or conservation. And there has never been a mass movement by the public to go out to buy $7000 worth of oil, in 100 barrels, to store on the front lawn. Instead, people turn to silver and gold to protect themselves from rising prices--because people can carry and store silver and gold.

And as silver and gold prices rise, it attracts investors, who see the track record of annual percentage returns. Why should investors hold bonds paying 1-4% (during a time when inflation is 7-10%), when there is the alternative of silver which will be rising 60%-100% per year for several years in a row, or more?

With silver, for over 100 years, decreased monetary demand created lower prices, which created decreased monetary demand. Today, with the supply/demand balance leaving no room for increased investment demand, with low inventories, any slight increase in investment or monetary demand, will quickly lead to higher prices and ever more monetary demand.

To protect their wealth from the effects of inflation and paper money devaluation, investors will buy silver, without regard to price.

Higher prices, and slightly increased investment demand, is exactly what we are seeing right now.

Panic short covering has not yet started. About a week ago, open interest was larger, at 200,000 contracts. Some of the shorts were able to cover at slightly lower prices this week. They were very, very fortunate. Soon, they will be panic covering, buying futures contracts back, at ever higher prices, which is what happens in a short squeeze.

In sum, the fundamentals will likely stay in place for a long, long time to come. It will take years for new mines to come to production, and produce enough silver to cool off the investment panic that is now just beginning.

In the past, when silver was plentiful, about 100 years ago, a silver dime, quarter, or dollar was a day's wage. Due to the shortage, such a small amount of silver could well be worth a week's wage in the future.

The real fundamental is that paper money is fraud. It is a failed promise, a broken promise to deliver silver or gold. Very soon, in my opinion, the last form of paper promises to deliver silver or gold will also fail. At that point, people stop believing promises, and people will turn to gold and silver, which are not promises, but payment in full. And that kind of fundamental shift in awareness can last a generation.

There is no need to fear a price spike in silver, or a drastic drop. The bigger fear ought to be that even though you know all of this, silver prices will rise swiftly past $100/oz., before you decide to buy all that you want, and will continue to grind ever higher, for decades to come.

For more information, you might want to register for the Silver Summit this year in Idaho. It will be the best mining conference of the year.
September 21st - 22nd, 2006 Coeur d'Alene, Idaho
September 23rd - 24th, 2006 Wallace, Idaho (Optional Fun)
http://www.thesilversummit.com/

If you found this email helpful, or worthy, please pass it along.

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel

Archive of prior emails:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/ssrarchive.htm

A Brief Guide to Buying Silver:
The kinds of silver, and where to get it.

http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm
 
jimmy-red ha scritto:
Non sono d'accordo sul tuo ragionamento poichè è praticamente impossibile sapere quale sarà il prezzo del Silver tra due anni nei quali ci sta di tutto (dallo sgonfiaggio della bolla sui metalli alla guerra con l'Iran ...): renditi conto che stiamo parlando di un certificato legato al prezzo spot e non di un bond a sconto con rimborso a 100 sicuro.

Bolla sui metalli ?!
Ha.. ha... ha... ha.... l'argento era a 50 dollari nel 1980....

Guardati la bolla su tutto il resto allora... immobiliare, azionario... ecc. ecc.
 
il prof arcucci mostrosacro dei metalli preziosi dice che il rialzo non è finito è durera' fino ad agosto .speriamo ,in questi giorni fatevi sentire (martedi)...aspettiamo nel calino per il rientrino ,vi segnalo la northgate minerals (oro rame insieme ) per worldlove hai scoperto se l'etf sull'argento è armonizzato(isin?)ciao a tutti
 
scozia ha scritto:
il prof arcucci mostrosacro dei metalli preziosi dice che il rialzo non è finito è durera' fino ad agosto .speriamo ,in questi giorni fatevi sentire (martedi)...aspettiamo nel calino per il rientrino ,vi segnalo la northgate minerals (oro rame insieme ) per worldlove hai scoperto se l'etf sull'argento è armonizzato(isin?)ciao a tutti
mi comunicheresti l'isi di un certificato abn ambro che investe sui metali preziosi?
Grazie OK!
 
alfredo77 ha scritto:
mi comunicheresti l'isi di un certificato abn ambro che investe sui metali preziosi?
Grazie OK!


usa queso database di ricerca. Trovi tutti i certificati con leva che hanno come sottostanti oro e argento.

http://www.certificatiederivati.it/pagina.asp?IDM=20&IDSM=2010



Se invece vuoi dei certificati senza leva di tipo benchmark

NL0000324986 argento certificate scadenza 2008 e parità 10:1
NL0000019701 argento certificate scadenza 2010 e parità 1:1
NL0000324978 oro certificate scadenza 2008 e parità 100:1
NL0000019727 oro certificate scadenza 2010 e parità 100:1
NL0000401263 palladio certificate scadenza 2010 e parità 100:1
NL0000401255 platino certificate scadenza 2010 e parità 1000:1

NL0000401271 argento quanto certificate scadenza 2008 parità 10:1
NL0000401248 oro quanto certificate scadenza 2008 parità 100:1

FR0010087262 argento certificate scadenza 2009 parità 1:1
FR0010087247 oro certificate scadenza 2009 parità 100:1
FR0010087288 palladio certificate scadenza 2009 parità 100:1
FR0010087296 platino certificate scadenza 2009 parità 100:1

tra i certificati non c'è altro. C'è il RICI index che però è un paniere di 35 materie prime e quindi non è solo metalli preziosi.


cmq trovi tutto sul sito che ti ho linkato
 
Leon ha scritto:
usa queso database di ricerca. Trovi tutti i certificati con leva che hanno come sottostanti oro e argento.

http://www.certificatiederivati.it/pagina.asp?IDM=20&IDSM=2010



Se invece vuoi dei certificati senza leva di tipo benchmark

NL0000324986 argento certificate scadenza 2008 e parità 10:1
NL0000019701 argento certificate scadenza 2010 e parità 1:1
NL0000324978 oro certificate scadenza 2008 e parità 100:1
NL0000019727 oro certificate scadenza 2010 e parità 100:1
NL0000401263 palladio certificate scadenza 2010 e parità 100:1
NL0000401255 platino certificate scadenza 2010 e parità 1000:1

NL0000401271 argento quanto certificate scadenza 2008 parità 10:1
NL0000401248 oro quanto certificate scadenza 2008 parità 100:1

FR0010087262 argento certificate scadenza 2009 parità 1:1
FR0010087247 oro certificate scadenza 2009 parità 100:1
FR0010087288 palladio certificate scadenza 2009 parità 100:1
FR0010087296 platino certificate scadenza 2009 parità 100:1

tra i certificati non c'è altro. C'è il RICI index che però è un paniere di 35 materie prime e quindi non è solo metalli preziosi.


cmq trovi tutto sul sito che ti ho linkato
thanks OK!
 
WorldLove ha scritto:
Bolla sui metalli ?!
Ha.. ha... ha... ha.... l'argento era a 50 dollari nel 1980....
Guardati la bolla su tutto il resto allora... immobiliare, azionario... ecc. ecc.

Per la precisione il top a quasi 22 $ fu raggiunto nel 1979 durante l'ultimo shock petrolifero come da grafico sotto;


Comunque complimenti per l'interessante che hai postato sul futuro del silver; riporto l'intervista di un money manager riguardo ai prezzi sulle comodity:

"Price outlook for crude oil, gold & silver 2006-05-05 12:19

Most commodities have been rallying in global markets. Crude has been rallying, so has gold, copper, equities and currencies.
Juerg Kiener of Swiss Asia Capital believes that crude may rally upto USD100 per barrel after a brief correction. He is most bullish on silver among other precious metals.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Juerg Kiener:

Q: You have been right on gold, but can you tell us where you see gold and silver headed in the next three months and the next one year?

A: It is hard to predict where prices will be in the next three months as volatility is going to stay high in a very narrow market. But if one looks at silver and gold and compares it with oil prices, then we still have a huge discount to make up.

It is basically lagging the precious metal versus the energy market. I think this gap will close significantly over the next year and that means one will see precious metal prices for gold reaching between USD1200-1700 and silver will go well above USD20 over the next 12-18 months
Q: Do you expect to see any meaningful correction before those levels are reached if they do, given where gold and silver have reached in the recent rally?

A: We are trading well above the moving averages in precious metals. Silver and gold are roughly 25-30% above their moving averages. One thing we notice is that the physical demand is very strong and we also see that the short positions on the paper market, the futures market is getting squeezed. So people have to cover up their positions and we may not get any set back for people to enter the market, despite them being above their moving averages.

This reminds me of the old market between 2002 and 2004 and everybody was waiting for significant set backs and it just never happened and that is what we are seeing right now in the precious metal markets. The set backs are going to be very short and very shallow; they will just keep going up.

The only thing we see is the precious metal mining stocks, they haven’t done much in the last two weeks despite metals making new highs. So there is lot of disbelief in this rally right now already discounted in a market and we won’t be surprised if all of a sudden investors who have missed out on the rally have to join the party.

Q: Is it the same story for crude?

A: Crude had a fantastic rally. So if it corrects a little bit and we had the first correction early in the year and this is a second leg down. It will not get a stand very much, we still have the driving season in front of us and also the hurricane season and we have a geo-political system, which is totally out of balance.

America will not find an easy solution, together with international community to confront Iran and that means premium risks are on the way up and not down. We can come down to USD 60-62 in crude but that is not a big deal but then where is the upside, somewhere between USD 100-200 for crude. So therefore it gives a 20% downside risk to a 100% upside, I would obviously be long and would not dare be short in this market.

Q: In this relative catch up game between gold and crude, which one do you think will inch little bit ahead and you would bet more on?

A: If one looks at the long-term averages of crude and oil, we have a ratio of about 17-18 times. Right now we are well below that. Gold is roughly around USD700 and crude is at USD70, with a ratio of about 10. So the discount is still huge on the side of the gold and on the side of silver it is looking more severe. So I think silver will be the outperformer of the whole lot, but the market is narrow. So we recommend people to have a mix of gold and silver, maybe with palladium. Precious metals are looking very good.

Q: What about the base metals? Do you track them and keep an eye on those markets?

A: Nickel will have a deficit of at least 70,000 tonnes next year. So it is a reasonable deficit in the kind of economic growth, which is seen. So is copper. If one compares the deficit of the base metals versus the deficit in the precious metals market, it is absolutely nothing.

We have seen copper outperforming crude as well as precious metals. I think that is going to reverse and one is going to see the catch up of the monetary aggregates. So I am much more comfortable from a risk-return perspective to buy gold and silver than base metals.

Q: Do you have any targets for copper?

A: It is very hard to put a target in a market like that. The most important thing people keep forgetting, is one look at the 100-year chart will show the inflation adjusted at commodities are still very cheap. So setbacks might become meaningless, as more and more investors globally want to enter to the market.

Most asset allocation in commodities is relatively small, so that alone might mean the prices will stay up quite a bit. How far they will go, I really don’t know. The base metals look reasonably fine from demand-supply for another two - three years, but they already had a huge rally. We can’t forget that they are depending on economic growth, where the other two areas have much less dependence on economic growth.

Q: Do you think it is reasonable to say that the multi- year bull run in the commodity is very much on, especially in crude, precious metals, and even base metals?

A: There is no new supply coming on stream in almost all commodities. So I am very comfortable to have 30 - 40% commodity exposure and very little financial assets, which are driven by liquidity. "
 

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per alfredo77 l'abn ambro ha creato dei certificati quanto (che in parte possono protergerti dalla variazioni euro dollaro ) sono negoziati in italia quello sul silver è NL0000401271 sul sito abn ambro ne trovi quanti ne vuoi
 
Buffett Sold Silver; NY Times Covers Gold!


Silver Stock Report
May 7th, 2006
by Jason Hommel
This email can be accessed online at:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/buffett_times.html

Today, I received word from about 15 of my subscribers that Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has sold their pile of nearly 130 million ounces silver. Five different news articles tell a similar story, that Warren admits he sold the silver.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={505AA31F-EB4D-4F1B-B532-66B44374D2C9}
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12665304/
http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=37412326&brk=1
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19497
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/whats_new/298421.htm

This is very bullish for silver, because it explains why silver's rise took longer than we thought (Warren was selling), and it also means that there is much less silver above ground than we thought. Buffett's hoard of 130 million ounces no longer exists! Clearly, Warren made a mistake, and he seems to admit it when he says that he sold silver too soon. I always suspected that Warren did not understand gold or silver too well.

Buffett emphasized the 'non-productive"(?) aspect of gold in 1998 at Harvard: "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

I answered Buffett's conundrum on gold, why men keep it vaults, in my article, "Refuting Myths about Gold", in 2003. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/hommel102802.html

He must have never read it. It took me about 10 seconds to think up the answer to refute Buffett's myth, numbered 28 in the article (but it took me about 2 years to compile and write the full article):

28. It does not make sense to dig up gold from the ground, and bury it again deep in the ground in a vault:

Yes, it does. Gold is kept in the vault because gold is valuable and rare, and thus, it needs to be protected from theft. You wouldn't want your property to be stolen, would you? Gold ownership also prevents theft from inflation, and from banking collapses during depressions, which happen under paper money systems.


I really feel sorry for Mr. Buffett. He complains he has $40 billion and does not know what to do with it, or how to protect it from inflation. He recently tried buying foreign currency with it, but that does not work either, when all currencies are overvalued frauds. Too bad Mr. Buffett. Buffett's confusion must be due to God himself, or perhaps senility. As the Bible says, "God is not mocked", but perhaps Gold is not to be mocked, either.


Before, I had given Mr. Buffet the benefit of the doubt. I had thought that his line about the uselessness of Gold was clever dis-information, as foolish traders sometimes try to talk down an investment while accumulating. But it appears he is just ignorant about one of the most fundamental aspects about the nature of Gold, after all.


The fundamentals of silver have nothing to do with supply and demand after all. The fundamental nature of silver is that it is different from paper, and paper is no substitute. Gold's use is that it keeps men honest! Gold provides a method for peaceful and non-fraudulent beneficial trade among men.


What is so special about gold? I'll tell you once again, (from silverstockreport.com):


Gold is money because it is liquid because it is easily tradable, with a narrow spread between the prices to buy and sell (about 1%). Also, gold is easily transportable, because it has a high value for its weight. This makes gold an excellent medium of exchange.

Gold is money because it is divisible, you can divide it into coins, or re-melt it into bars, without destroying it. Also, gold is fungible, where each unit of .999 fine gold (99.9% pure) is similar enough to another unit so as to be easily interchangeable. Gold is also nearly impossible to counterfeit, and genuine gold is easily recognizable. When measured by weight, gold is easily countable. These properties make gold an excellent unit of account.

Gold is money because it is a great store of value. Gold is not subject to decay, rot, or rust. Gold has an intrinsic value in itself, because it is rare, highly coveted the world over, and is a luxury item.

Silver has all the same characteristics, except silver is heavier by value, (cheaper per ounce). (Silver is actually less dense, and lighter than gold per unit volume, which prevents counterfeiting coins by plating silver coins with gold). Silver is also more rare than gold, in above-ground, refined, deliverable form. Silver is more useful to industry than is gold, as silver is used in more applications than any other item except, perhaps, oil.


Buffett's problem is a pitfall I've worried that my subscribers would fall into. The danger is selling too soon, due to not knowing why you bought precious metal in the first place. For example, what if you sell gold as gold rises to $3000 per ounce, on its way to $30,000 per ounce? Well, between $300 and $3000, you'd make ten times your money. And then, between $3000 and $30,000, you'd give back all your gains, and be no better off. This is why I've personally risked my reputation, by writing "outlandish" articles about how and why gold can rise to infinity dollar per ounce! (As paper money dies.)


Future Gold & Silver Prices --December 21, 2005
http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/Future_Gold_and_Silver_Prices.html
Why no talk of $32,567/oz ? - 02 January 2003
http://www.silverstockreport.com/essays/Why_no_talk_of_32567_oz_-.html


During the past 7 years, I've closely watched many items that are bullish for gold and silver; most notably, who is covering them, and how good is the coverage. Finally, the New York Times covers gold in a somewhat positive way. This is no time to call a top, just because they are covering gold. (Many old gold bugs believe you should sell gold if the NY Times gives it coverage.) After all, the Times is still at the bottom of the learning curve, in my opinion, and still rather skeptical of the facts about gold, and the nature of gold, somewhat like Mr. Buffett. But the interesting thing about the Times is that many newspapers follow stories that the Times covers, and so, we may see the beginning of greater coverage about gold in the U.S. national press, and we may see gold prices rise substantially as a result.


This article was sent to me in email by several sources. Key excerpts below:


Finding Comfort (and New Friends) in Gold By Landon Thomas Jr.The New York TimesSunday, May 7, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/07/business/yourmoney/07gold.html?_r=1&oref= SHARON, Connecticut -- ... Their passion notwithstanding, gold bugs tend to be small-time investors. Gold's recent surge has instead been underpinned by a rush of mainstream investors, including hedge funds, commodity-based mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds. For these investors, gold is less a way of life than it is hedge against inflation and a prudent measure of diversification during an increasingly worrisome time. The extent to which this new wave of capital remains invested in gold will determine if the recent spike is just another anomaly or the onset of the second coming of the great gold bull market that the true believers have been calling for since the price of gold crashed a quarter-century ago. ... With their missionary zeal and weakness for conspiracy theories, gold lovers can seem a touch afflicted. They also collect and pass around offbeat, brain-teasing findings. One is that the dollar has lost 98 percent of its value since 1913, when the Federal Reserve System was established. Another is an assertion by the American Institute for Economic Research, an obscure research outfit in Great Barrington, Mass., that since 1945 inflation has eroded $15.8 trillion from the savings accounts of United States citizens. Both findings underscore their benchmark precept: that a currency not tied to gold becomes debased when central banks print money and governments spend freely. Perhaps Alan Greenspan, who before his run as chairman of the Federal Reserve was highly regarded in gold-bug circles, captured this point best. "In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation," he wrote in 1966, when he was an economic consultant. "Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." The great liquidity explosion that occurred under Mr. Greenspan has made him a turncoat in the eyes of the gold-bug crowd. But his successor, Ben. S. Bernanke, or "Helicopter Ben" as they call him, inflames its passions all the more. To this group, Mr. Bernanke's passing allusion -- before he became Fed chairman -- to a helicopter dropping money over a recession-bound economy confirmed its deepest fears that a monetary system not anchored by gold was essentially inflationary if not downright immoral. ... Like Mr. Sinclair, William J. Murphy III is also a Wall Street refugee. After a one-year stint in 1968 as a wide receiver for the New England Patriots, he began a career as a commodities trader, working for a number of firms, including Shearson and Drexel Burnham. Convinced that the price of gold was being suppressed by an unholy alliance between the central banks and major investment banks, he formed the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, known as GATA, that seeks to publicize facts and assertions that support his point -- namely that the gold reserves in central banks are significantly overstated. GATA for the most part is a one-man show -- Mr. Murphy, dressed in his sweatsuit, perched in front of the computer in his home in suburban Dallas. With his excitable manner and his outré theories about gold, he is generally thought to exist on the outer fringe of the gold-bug movement. Indeed, his central thesis -- that Goldman Sachs and other banks have conspired to keep a cap on the price via short sales to back the government's strong-dollar policy, especially while a former Goldman senior partner, Robert E. Rubin, was Treasury secretary in the late 1990s -- is far-fetched. With the price of gold surging, Mr. Murphy is convinced that Goldman Sachs, J. P. Morgan, and others are frantically buying now to cover for the gold they sold short over the years. Goldman Sachs and J. P. Morgan declined to comment about their gold trading positions or strategies. "What a day," Mr. Murphy said one day last week as gold broke through $670. Goldman Sachs and J. P. Morgan were big buyers that day on Comex, the division of the New York Mercantile Exchange where gold contracts trade. Sputtering at the joy of it all, Mr. Murphy could well have been a prospector hitting the Mother Lode. "These guys are short, and they are panicking to get out of their positions," he said. "They are sweating bullets, and it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys." There is a kernel of truth to what Mr. Murphy says. Central banks have been aggressive sellers of gold, especially in the late 1990s, when gold was touching record lows. But most economists say that there was no grand design involved, just a badly timed attempt to shift into higher-yielding assets like bonds. As for investment banks, they are sellers and buyers of any given asset at any given time. But it is also true that they have hardly been enthusiastic advocates for gold as an investment, especially when the stock market was king. Even now, as they have issued positive reports about the metal, their price targets seem oddly out of sync with its relentless rise. Goldman's forecast for a year-end price is $625 an ounce; J. P. Morgan's target, which is currently under review, is $560, and Morgan Stanley's is $550. Compared with Mr. Murphy and his boylike excitability, James Turk speaks with an assured gravity consistent with his background as a commercial banker at Chase Manhattan. But his views about gold as the ultimate store of value in a financial world on the verge of collapse are no less doctrinaire. Indeed, Mr. Turk has established his own online payment system, GoldMoney.com, through which he and his fellow gold bugs may enjoy the thrill of buying goods and services via gold, not cash. In some ways it is a symbolic exercise. While the payment system is supported by $100 million worth of gold, no merchants have agreed to take bullion as payment, although Mr. Turk hopes that day may come. More than anything else, the site demonstrates his disdain for the dollar and all other forms of paper money -- a view that he often heard from his parents, who experienced the ravages of hyperinflation in Austria in the 1920s. "It's not gold going up; it's the dollar going down," Mr. Turk said by phone from Australia, where he was speaking at an investment conference. Gold has held its value much better than the dollar against commodities like oil, he said. With oil hitting new highs -- it has hovered around $70 a barrel for weeks -- Mr. Turk foresees a return to the 1970s, when high inflation and a volatile Middle East drove gold to its peak. "If we get close to $850 this year, it's most probable that we will see a four-digit gold price in 2007," he said. Four-digit gold -- an ounce of bullion selling for $1,000 or more -- is the gold bugs' equivalent of a visit from the Messiah. But for the growing number of hedge funds that are piling into the commodity, gold is less a virtuous investment than it is a mercenary one. China and India are buying more gold. Iran is becoming more bellicose in its stand toward the West. And, most important, liquidity is making a broad shift to commodities and out of stocks. "Do I think that gold is God? No," said Monty Guild, who runs Guild Investment Management, a hedge fund in Malibu, Calif. "I'm a gold opportunist. When it's good, we like it; when it's not, we stay away. Gold does well during wars, and we believe there will be more wars." And for those not in gold, or any other highflying commodity, for that matter, the feeling can be lonely. William H. Miller III, portfolio manager of the $19 billion Legg Mason Value Trust, which has beaten the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index for 15 consecutive years, has no gold in the fund. His view is that inflationary expectations, if not prices themselves, remain quiescent, and that gold -- like oil, emerging markets, and small-cap stocks before it -- has become the latest investment craze, propelled upward by a wave of hot money, a term for speculative short-term capital. "Gold certainly looks extended from here," said Mr. Miller, whose fund is currently trailing the S.& P. 500 for the year. "It's easy to make money when you are trend-following," he added. "But if you are worried that the end is near, the last thing I want is gold because of all the hot money." -END-
Gold is up from "hot money", yes. But Gold IS money! Paper money is the "hot money" by definition--paper money is the hot potato that people have to dump if they want to protect their wealth. But gold is not up because gold is a fad. Gold is up because it's gold's time, because gold is timeless, and because the fad of paper money is ending. Once again, such basic misunderstandings mean we have a long, long way to go.

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
For your financial health:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/ -- promoting God's money, gold & silver
For your spiritual health:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/ -- warning against Satan's money, 666 --The mark of the Beast.

Archive of prior emails:
http://www.silverstockreport.com/ssrarchive.htm

A Brief Guide to Buying Silver:
The kinds of silver, and where to get it.
http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm
 
Effettivamente il fatto che Buffet abbia venduto in questi anni è veramente bullish... 130 milioni di once sono andate sul mercato e nonostante questo il prezzo ha continuato a salire... è evidente che Buffet questa volta abbia sbagliato...

D'altra parte Buffet la pensa così... Buffett emphasized the 'non-productive"(?) aspect of gold in 1998 at Harvard: "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

Cioè l'oro (e l'argento) non sono beni produttivi.
Peccato si dimentichi che la carta lo è anche di meno.
 
WorldLove ha scritto:
Effettivamente il fatto che Buffet abbia venduto in questi anni è veramente bullish... 130 milioni di once sono andate sul mercato e nonostante questo il prezzo ha continuato a salire... è evidente che Buffet questa volta abbia sbagliato...
D'altra parte Buffet la pensa così... Buffett emphasized the 'non-productive"(?) aspect of gold in 1998 at Harvard: "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
Cioè l'oro (e l'argento) non sono beni produttivi.
Peccato si dimentichi che la carta lo è anche di meno.

Non dimenticare che Buffet, come da lui sempre sostenuto, investe solo nei businness semplici e che lui può capire; va dato atto comunque alla lungimiranza degli scorsi anni quando accumulò l'argento a prezzi ridicoli e ora ha solamente incassato: al limite può sempre dire "vendi, guadagna e pentiti" l'importante per chi è "long" di non fare la fine dei fratelli Hunt che speculando negli anni 80 contro l'argento ci rimisero le loro fortune :yes: :yes:
 
Indietro