BAIDU: l’essenza cinese (Nasdaq: BIDU)

  • Ecco la 60° Edizione del settimanale "Le opportunità di Borsa" dedicato ai consulenti finanziari ed esperti di borsa.

    Questa settimana abbiamo assistito a nuovi record assoluti in Europa e a Wall Street. Il tutto, dopo una ottava che ha visto il susseguirsi di riunioni di banche centrali. Lunedì la Bank of Japan (BoJ) ha alzato i tassi per la prima volta dal 2007, mettendo fine all’era del costo del denaro negativo e al controllo della curva dei rendimenti. Mercoledì la Federal Reserve (Fed) ha confermato i tassi nel range 5,25%-5,50%, mentre i “dots”, le proiezioni dei funzionari sul costo del denaro, indicano sempre tre tagli nel corso del 2024. Il Fomc ha anche discusso in merito ad un possibile rallentamento del ritmo di riduzione del portafoglio titoli. Ieri la Bank of England (BoE) ha lasciato i tassi di interesse invariati al 5,25%. Per continuare a leggere visita il link

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The star of the week was again Baidu (BIDU) which muscled past the other internet giants to climb another 9.7 percent, adding on to its 15.9 percent jump the previous week. The Chinese search engine leader has been basking in newfound investor love as the next EV-maker wannabe.

The stock received further boosts from a strong Q4 2020 profit and the company placated investors for the revenue miss with an upside sales forecast. The management also shrewdly provided the soundbites during the earnings conference call that analysts were clamoring for in justifying higher price targets for the stock.

For instance, they emphasized the progress in the monetization of its AI investments including mass smart transportation and autonomous driving with the buzzwords Robotaxis and Robobuses thrown in. Unlike other EV makers, Baidu's strategy is akin to Google's (GOOGL) (GOOG) Android for smartphones.
Baidu Apollo Robobus

Source: Baidu Apollo

The company revealed strategic partnerships with 10 leading automakers for its Apollo self-driving platform and order-taking for its autonomous navigation pilot program. Less flashy AI businesses such as its AI Cloud also delivered, growing 67 percent year-over-year, reaching 2 billion yuan on an annualized basis.

Shortly after the release of the results, analysts were, almost like clockwork, publishing fresh upgrades on Baidu with upwardly revised price targets. I raised the likelihood of this happening in a prior article based on the woefully low consensus price target which was far from the prevailing traded price.

"The analysts risk looking uninformed and silly if they are slow to find new narratives to support a target price increase and upgrade the stock. The prevailing share price is already 31 percent higher than the consensus price target at $239.59. We have seen the phenomenon of analysts rushing to revise their target prices upwards happening at many tech stocks, including at the most prominent of all, Tesla. As the scenario gets played out, expect a positive feedback loop to fuel even more stock gains ahead."

Since my early October article titled Baidu: Surprisingly Cheap was published, the share price has risen 172 percent. However, with the forward P/E at 32 times for the fiscal period ending December 2021 and further reduced to 22 times with 2023 consensus estimates, it's hard to argue Baidu is no longer "cheap".


Source: Seeking Alpha Premium

The strong performance of Baidu had apparently single-handedly lifted the Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) from a more than 3 percent drop intra-week to close nearly flat on Friday. Baidu is the top holding of the CQQQ ETF with an 11.7 percent weightage in the portfolio. Readers seeking another data point to support their investment thesis could consider looking at the Quant rating for Baidu which has been held at "Very Bullish" since the upgrade on November 23.



Source: Seeking Alpha Premium
 
alla faccia del poco. attualmente è il titolo che ho in portafoglio su cui nutro più fiducia. Se poi fanno lo split come si vocifera, ancora di più
Ma infatti non capisco con tutti i titoli in giro che stanno deludendo le attese o anche i minimi ipotizzabili come sia possibile essere negativi su baidu.
 
Buongiorno,
sono alla ricerca di informazioni su Baidu...
Ce l'ho in watchlist da un po' e il recente pesante ritracciamento mi stà facendo pensare ad un primo ingresso...Stavo iniziando ad analizzarla sul mio broker ( Fineco ) ma leggo un P/E a 0,26 ( ovviamente sbagliato ), cercando su nasdaq.com invece vedo dati interessanti, che mi sembrano attendibili :

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/bidu/earnings
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/bidu/price-earnings-peg-ratios --> Il 2021 è visto in decrescita....

Mi sembra giusta la correzione recente, dopo il x3 dai minimi del 2020 ci stava, anzi credo ci sia ulteriore spazio per scendere, almeno fino ai 200, con la discesa dell'Hype dopo l'annuncio dell'ingresso del mercato delle elettriche.
Guardando un grafico ad almeno 5 anni vedo che i 250 li aveva già toccati nel 2015 e poi a fine 2018 e la discesa verso i minimi è iniziata ben prima della pandemia...
Chi ci è investito, su che basi l'ha fatto?Pura speculazione al rialzo post covid o ci sono fondamentali a supporto ?
Grazie a chi vorrà rispondermi, altrimenti cercherò notizie in autonomia.
Grazie.
 
BIDU Gets Green Light for Secondary Hong Kong Listing

Il mio investimento sulla società vede jmk78 una posizione lunga.
I motivi sono tanti: mercato cinese enorme in tutto, internet, elettrico, AI, e anche se nessuno lo scrive mai oltre alle potenzialità nelle aree appena elencate dove la società é presente ci sono anche investimenti nel settore salute dove abbiamo investito.
Nel mio portafoglio ho già il titolo che é più che raddoppiato ma non vedo il motivo del perché dovrei alleggerire. Il p/e della società aveva postato sopra un articolo che spiegava bene come siamo ancora a sconto.
La società tra le altre attività pensava anche di produrre chip e vedremo in futuro se aprirà anche questa nuova attività, visto poi la carenza cronica del mercato sarebbe una bella mossa.
Titolo da cassetto 😉
 
Grazie per la risposta e complimenti per il timing in entrata.
A grandi linee mi hai dato delle indicazioni entrando nel dettaglio delle notizie correlate però vedo che ha un mercato pubblicitario in calo in favore di nuovi servizi come quelli di bilibili, che sul cloud ha solo il 7% del mercato, iQiyi non cresce più, sembra invece che i suoi servizi di guida senza conducente siano in crescita.
A questi prezzi non mi convince, la crescita futura prossima SEMBRA non essere così forte. La tengo in watchlist e la riguardo se dovesse scendere ulteriormente.
Ps.
per correttezza questo l'articolo da cui ho preso le info :

Is Baidu Stock a Buy?
20/02/2021 14:35 MTFL
Baidu's (BIDU.O) stock recently dipped after the Chinese tech giant posted its fourth-quarter earnings. Its revenue rose 5% year over year to 30.26 billion yuan ($4.64 billion), marking its second straight quarter of sales growth but narrowly missing estimates by $20 million. Its adjusted net income fell 25% to 6.87 billion yuan ($1.05 billion), or $3.08 per share, but beat expectations by $0.49 a share. Baidu expects its revenue to rise 15%-26% year over year in the first quarter.

Those headline numbers look stable, but is Baidu's stock still worth buying after more than doubling over the past 12 months?

Baidu still hasn't fixed its biggest problem
Baidu generated 68% of its revenue from its online marketing services in the fourth quarter, compared to 72% a year ago. This core business mainly sells ads on its search engine, portal sites, and other apps.

Its revenue dipped 0.3% year over year to 20.71 billion yuan ($3.17 billion) during the quarter, marking its seventh straight quarter of declining sales. On the bright side, its revenue rose 2.5% sequentially.

Unfortunately, the growth of Baidu's advertising business is dismal compared to that of many of its Chinese peers. In their latest quarters, Tencent's online advertising revenue rose 16% year over year, as Bilibili's (BILI.O) advertising revenue soared 126%.

Baidu attributes its sluggish ad growth to macro headwinds and intense competition. But its problems are secular rather than cyclical: Baidu still owns China's top search engine, but people are spending more time on other apps like Tencent's WeChat, ByteDance's Douyin and Toutiao, and Bilibili. As a result, Baidu is becoming an also-ran in China's crowded advertising space alongside aging tech giants like SINA.

How is Baidu trying to expand?
Baidu is trying to counter this secular shift by expanding its ecosystem of Smart Mini Programs (SMPs), which compete against WeChat's Mini Programs, within its mobile app. It's also expanding its DuerOS voice search system with smart speakers, cars, and other connected devices.

Baidu ended the quarter with 544 million monthly active users (MAUs) on its mobile app, but it's still dwarfed by WeChat's 1.21 billion MAUs. On the bright side, 414 million of those MAUs regularly access Baidu's SMPs, and its total number of SMPs more than doubled year over year.

DuerOS processed 6.2 billion monthly voice queries. Its Xiaodu smart speakers and screens processed 3.7 billion of those queries, up 66% from a year ago.

Baidu is also increasing its exposure to the live streaming market with its content creation platform BJH and its upcoming takeover of YY Live. Furthermore, its Apollo driverless platform continues to expand with new partnerships and EV joint ventures, and already powers autonomous vehicles in several cities across China.

The expansion of Baidu's ecosystem might reduce its dependence on its core search engine and portals, but these efforts aren't generating meaningful revenue yet. Therefore, investors should always take Baidu's ecosystem-expanding announcements with a grain of salt.

iQiyi is still a dead weight
Baidu spun off iQiyi (IQ.O) in an IPO in early 2018, but it retained a majority stake in the online video platform.

iQiyi's growth initially offset Baidu's declining ad revenue, but its growth fizzled out over the past year. Its revenue, which accounted for 25% of Baidu's top line, dipped 0.5% year over year during the fourth quarter as its total number of subscribers fell 5% to 101.7 million. It narrowed its net loss from 2.49 billion yuan to 1.55 billion yuan ($237 million), but it remains a dead weight on Baidu's bottom line.

Baidu might still consider iQiyi a necessary part of its ecosystem or a buffer against Tencent Video and other premium video platforms, but it would arguably be wiser to divest the entire business.

How did Baidu generate positive growth?
As Baidu's two largest businesses floundered, its cloud business picked up the slack. The company noted the 52% growth of Baidu Core's non-marketing revenue was largely "driven by cloud and other services."

Baidu Cloud's growth boosted its "others" revenue (which includes iQiyi) by 18% year over year to 9.56 billion yuan ($1.46 billion). That growth looks promising, but Baidu only controls 7.1% of China's cloud platform market, according to Canalys, putting it in a distant fourth place behind Alibaba (BABA.N) (40.9%), Huawei (16.2%), and Tencent (15.8%).

Moreover, Alibaba Cloud still isn't profitable by GAAP measures -- so Baidu is also likely operating its cloud platform at a loss to grow its market share. In short, it's another dead weight on its margins.

Should you buy Baidu right now?
Baidu's business is stabilizing, but it's still spinning too many plates. Its forecast for the first quarter is promising, but investors should see if its core advertising business grows and reduces its top-line dependence on unprofitable businesses like iQiyi and Baidu Cloud.

Baidu still looks reasonably valued at 25 times forward earnings, but investors should only nibble on the stock at these levels. It's priced for a strong comeback, but there are still too many moving parts in play to guarantee that actually happens.

Leo Sun owns shares of Baidu. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Baidu, and Tencent Holdings. The Motley Fool recommends Bilibili and iQiyi. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.



Grazie.
 
Spero che la tradata ti vada bene ma questa è da stare long a oltranza, altro che trading intraday!
 
Ieri in chiusura sono scadute un bel po' di opzioni a 230$, credo sia quello il motivo dello strano dumping nel finale Vedi l'allegato 2756393
 

Allegati

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io sono rimasto IN ma francamente non capisco tutto quest'accanimento di vendite:wall:
 
Ok il rosso di martedì e mercoledì, ma il quasi -16% di ieri con alcune cinesi in leggero verde me lo spiegavo poco.....ma addirittura oggi da +8% nel premarket agli attuali -7%?!? :eek:

Ma sapete di qualche news? Perchè 1 crollo così non è spiegabile neanche con le notizie di possibile (ma improbabilisssssimo) delisting....
 
io sono rimasto IN ma francamente non capisco tutto quest'accanimento di vendite:wall:

mi rispondo sa solo:

Large blocks of Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Tencent Music (NYSE:TME) and Vipshop (NYSE:VIPS) are reportedly being offered through Goldman, according to a report.
10m Baidu shares are offered at $185 to market, according to a Bloomberg report.
Baidu down 7.3% in premarket trading. Tencent Music fell 10% and Vipshop dropped 7.4%.
 
oggi dovrebbe aver toccato il fondo in area 180.
SL sotto il minimo di oggi (175), circa la meta del ts di febbraio a 340 :D:D
Anche baba a 220 e' interessante per un long.

Ola

Paolo
 
chiusura in verde con un bel hammer, aspetteremo la settimana prossima per una verifica. OK!
 
Su Baidu come su Fox ci sono state pesanti vendite coatte da parte di un hedge fund in difficoltà.
 
Su Baidu come su Fox ci sono state pesanti vendite coatte da parte di un hedge fund in difficoltà.

Sì, infatti ho tenuto, i prezzi sono scesi diciamo artificiosamente e non per un effettiva mancanza di fiducia sul futuro.
 
Stamattina in Asia, Baidu in forte calo a Hong Kong e Nomura a Tokio. La più grande banca del Giappone ha comunicato che a causa di un problema con un suo grande cliente, rischia di ritrovarsi con una perdita di circa 2 miliardi di dollari: Bloomberg riporta che questo soggetto è proprio Archegos Capital.
 
Indietro