Berkshire Hathaway n.3

Grazie del consiglio. Secondo te quali sono i multipli più indicativi da valutare su brk?

Per rispondere a questa domanda si potrebbe scrivere un libro.
Prova iniziare a guardare P/BV e P/Utile Operativo (quindi al netto di utili o perdite su investimenti).
 
Per rispondere a questa domanda si potrebbe scrivere un libro.
Prova iniziare a guardare P/BV e P/Utile Operativo (quindi al netto di utili o perdite su investimenti).

Grazie, sono neofita in questo campo.
Il P/B l'ho appena controllato, ma ogni sito dà un valore diverso... comunque sembra attorno all'1,5... significa che è sopravvalutata? Non dovrebbe superare 1 per essere un valore equo, giusto?

Che sito devo controllare per avere valori affidabili di questi indicatori?
 
Che cosa succederebbe all'utile di Berkshire se le partecipazioni di minoranza fossero consolidate invece che marked to market?
Se andiamo a vedere l'utile trimestrale 09/2009, abbiamo una perdita di 2688M$. Senza le perdite derivanti dalla valutazione di mercato delle partecipazioni di minoranza, pari a 10449M$, avremmo un utile di 7761M$. Ma, per esempio, Apple nel trimestre ha generato1.29$ di utile per azione, Berkshire ne possiede 895M di azioni, per cui se Apple fosse consolidata genererebbe ulteriori 1154M$ di utile. Sommando tutti gli altri utili (Chevron 955M$, Bank of America 818M$, Occidental Petroleum 490M$, Coca Cola 260M$, eccetera) totalizziamo 4857M$, che porterebbero l'ipotetico utile consolidato a 12618M$.
Se all'utile operativo ttm di 31369M$ sommassimo l'utile ttm delle partecipazioni di minoranza di 20886M$ otterremmo 52255M$, che rispetto alla capitalizzazione attuale di 694717M$ darebbero un P/E consolidato di 13.3.
 
Simpatico articolo sul Sole 24 Ore del 16 dicembre.... la Holding di Warren Buffet sorride nonostante l'orso ..... risultati 2022 rispetto agli indici americani...

Saluti
 

Allegati

  • WARREN BUFFET SORRIDE NONOSTANTE L'ORSO.pdf
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la lettera:
https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf

The Secret Sauce

In August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire. The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.

American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase. These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.

Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income. The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.
 
Riassunto dei buyback di Berkshire da agosto 2018 a dicembre 2022 (fonte: Berkshire Hathaway, relazioni trimestrali ed annuali) .

Il "Prezzo equivalente classe B" è dato dal totale degli acquisti del mese diviso la somma del numero di classe A moltiplicato 1.500 più il numero di classe B. In caso di mesi senza riacquisti ho riportato la chiusura mensile.
L'ammontare complessivo dei riacquisti del 2022 è di 8B$ (2018: 1.3B$, 2019:5B$, 2020:24.7B$, 2021:21.4B$).

"Berkshire’s common stock repurchase program permits Berkshire to repurchase its Class A and Class B shares at any
time that Warren Buffett, Berkshire’s Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, and Charles Munger, Vice Chairman of the Board, believe that the repurchase price is below Berkshire’s intrinsic value, conservatively determined. Repurchases may be in the open market or through privately negotiated transactions."

Il prezzo di chiusura di venerdi 24/2/23 della classe B è di 304.02$.

Berkshire riacquisti
Data​
Classe A n.​
Classe A prezzo​
Classe B n.​
Classe B prezzo​
Totale $​
Prezzo eq classe B​
ago 2018​
225​
312.806,74​
4.139.192​
207,09​
927.566.787,78​
207,20​
set 2018​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
205,27​
ott 2018​
202​
310.762,79​
589.955​
205,09​
183.767.954,53​
205,80​
nov 2018​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
204,17​
dic 2018​
790​
295.953,99​
0​
0,00​
233.803.652,10​
197,30​
gen 2019​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
201,30​
feb 2019​
293​
302.622,16​
595.412​
201,73​
208.780.755,64​
201,74​
mar 2019​
965​
304.175,15​
5.924.418​
200,63​
1.482.145.003,09​
201,05​
apr 2019​
226​
305.872,16​
0​
0,00​
69.127.108,16​
203,91​
mag 2019​
0​
0,00​
1.032.233​
198,90​
205.311.143,70​
198,90​
giu 2019​
55​
311.292,99​
733.907​
205,16​
167.689.474,57​
205,40​
lug 2019​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
203,41​
ago 2019​
64​
300.166,13​
2.793.092​
197,68​
571.349.058,88​
197,76​
set 2019​
149​
310.231,27​
375.771​
206,50​
123.821.170,73​
206,62​
ott 2019​
688​
306.086,60​
1.497.623​
204,07​
516.207.506,41​
204,06​
nov 2019​
1.326​
328.974,91​
3.657.884​
218,62​
1.235.907.330,74​
218,87​
dic 2019​
674​
333.298,06​
953.070​
221,67​
435.909.919,34​
221,94​
gen 2020​
177​
39.082,41​
582.074​
226,11​
138.530.338,71​
163,44​
feb 2020​
164​
325.411,91​
4.486.775​
214,00​
1.013.537.403,24​
214,15​
mar 2020​
1.001​
301.085,61​
319.814​
214,18​
369.884.458,13​
203,09​
apr 2020​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
185,58​
mag 2020​
540​
262.967,67​
18.828.006​
174,58​
3.428.995.829,28​
174,61​
giu 2020​
1.282​
268.815,58​
7.514.590​
178,59​
1.686.652.201,66​
178,72​
lug 2020​
1.965​
280.778,84​
10.521.719​
187,93​
2.529.077.072,27​
187,77​
ago 2020​
2.531​
316.766,16​
10.846.595​
209,96​
3.079.086.237,16​
210,28​
set 2020​
3.670​
325.251,28​
11.387.889​
215,80​
3.651.178.643,80​
216,14​
ott 2020​
1.894​
316.292,44​
11.097.536​
209,92​
2.928.652.638,48​
210,11​
nov 2020​
2.244​
341.117,06​
7.423.729​
219,12​
2.392.154.181,12​
221,71​
dic 2020​
1.787​
342.577,29​
12.605.335​
225,73​
3.457.587.886,78​
226,20​
gen 2021​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
240,50​
feb 2021​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
255,47​
mar 2021​
2.397​
425.870,54​
25.462​
276,25​
1.027.845.561,88​
283,86​
apr 2021​
611​
408.470,13​
5.795.788​
267,75​
1.801.397.486,43​
268,37​
mag 2021​
689​
432.536,24​
1.872.026​
286,10​
833.604.107,96​
286,90​
giu 2021​
2.250​
432.132,04​
8.646.680​
279,94​
3.392.848.689,20​
282,23​
lug 2021​
938​
420.100,50​
6.387.847​
278,13​
2.170.706.155,11​
278,48​
ago 2021​
868​
430.704,66​
6.535.695​
285,41​
2.239.204.354,83​
285,70​
set 2021​
1.323​
419.236,93​
9.580.995​
277,74​
3.215.676.009,69​
278,04​
ott 2021​
680​
431.525,72​
5.862.551​
282,86​
1.951.718.665,46​
283,57​
nov 2021​
403​
430.172,46​
7.013.482​
284,39​
2.167.923.647,36​
284,58​
dic 2021​
1.828​
439.625,92​
6.259.164​
287,62​
2.603.896.931,44​
289,28​
gen 2022​
625​
455.959,81​
73.987​
299,82​
307.157.663,59​
303,67​
feb 2022​
1.048​
474.398,80​
3.168.329​
312,14​
1.486.132.156,46​
313,51​
mar 2022​
332​
485.015,95​
3.582.355​
322,88​
1.317.696.077,80​
322,94​
apr 2022​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
315,98​
mag 2022​
0​
0,00​
0​
0,00​
0,00​
273,01​
giu 2022​
2.397​
425.870,54​
25.462​
276,75​
1.027.858.292,88​
283,86​
lug 2022​
1.302​
424.974,96​
0​
0,00​
553.317.397,92​
283,32​
ago 2022​
595​
444.401,28​
0​
0,00​
264.418.761,60​
296,27​
set 2022​
519​
424.972,62​
0​
0,00​
220.560.789,78​
283,32​
ott 2022​
1.550​
426.592,77​
0​
0,00​
661.218.793,50​
284,40​
nov 2022​
2.146​
463.584,86​
0​
0,00​
994.853.109,56​
309,06​
dic 2022​
584​
468.113,93​
3.046.794​
303,83​
1.199.085.956,14​
305,67​
Totale​
45.997​
185.783.236​
60.473.844.365​
 
Come è andata la trimestrale?
 
Come è andata la trimestrale?
Nel 10-K ci sono solo dati annuali. Escludendo le variazioni dovute alle valutazioni al prezzo di mercato delle partecipazioni di minoranza, il fatturato anno/anno è cresciuto del 9.4% e i costi del 9.3%, l'utile prima della tassazione e delle suddette variazioni è cresciuto del 9.9% anno/anno.
 
Utile e fatturato non riportato a bilancio delle partecipazioni di minoranza.

Ipotizzando una tassazione del 18% sull'EBT (usando la tassazione media degli ultimi tre anni) su 35.46B$ e sommando quindi circa 29B$ di utile netto così calcolato ai 19.9B$ di utile delle partecipazioni di minoranza si ottiene un utile complessivo di 48.9B$ su una market cap di 668B$ con un P/E risultante di 13.6. Sommando il fatturato delle partecipazioni di minoranza di 129.7B$ al fatturato di 302B$ si ottiene un totale di 431.8B$ con un P/S di 1.55.
Ovviamente il calcolo è approssimativo ma serve a dare un'idea di come sarebbe grosso modo il conto economico di Berkshire se le partecipazioni di minoranza fossero consolidate anzichè valutate al prezzo di mercato.


Società​
Numero azioni​
EPS​
Utile netto​
RPS​
Fatturato​
Margine netto​
Apple​
895.136.175​
5,89​
5.272.352.071​
23,97​
21.456.414.115​
24,6%​
Bank of America​
1.010.100.606​
3,19​
3.222.220.933​
11,62​
11.737.369.042​
27,5%​
Chevron​
162.975.771​
18,28​
2.979.197.094​
121,44​
19.791.777.630​
15,1%​
Coca Cola​
400.000.000​
2,20​
880.000.000​
9,89​
3.956.000.000​
22,2%​
American Express​
151.610.700​
9,84​
1.491.849.288​
69,89​
10.596.071.823​
14,1%​
Kraft Heinz​
325.634.818​
1,91​
621.962.502​
21,49​
6.997.892.239​
8,9%​
Occidental Petroleum​
194.351.650​
12,32​
2.394.412.328​
36,90​
7.171.575.885​
33,4%​
Moody's​
24.669.778​
7,44​
183.543.148​
29,59​
729.978.731​
25,1%​
Activision Blizzard​
52.717.075​
1,92​
101.216.784​
9,54​
502.920.896​
20,1%​
HP Inc.​
104.476.035​
3,01​
314.472.865​
59,94​
6.262.293.538​
5,0%​
DaVita HealthCare​
36.095.570​
5,78​
208.632.395​
121,33​
4.379.475.508​
4,8%​
Verisign​
12.815.613​
6,25​
80.097.581​
13,20​
169.166.092​
47,3%​
Citigroup​
55.155.797​
7,00​
386.090.579​
38,33​
2.114.121.699​
18,3%​
Kroger​
50.000.000​
3,20​
160.000.000​
200,22​
10.011.000.000​
1,6%​
Visa​
8.297.460​
7,15​
59.326.839​
14,23​
118.072.856​
50,2%​
Liberty SiriusXM C​
43.208.291​
2,68​
115.798.220​
26,06​
1.126.008.063​
10,3%​
General Motors​
50.000.000​
6,14​
307.000.000​
107,91​
5.395.500.000​
5,7%​
Paramount Global​
93.637.189​
1,60​
149.819.502​
46,37​
4.341.956.454​
3,5%​
Mastercard​
3.986.648​
10,22​
40.743.543​
22,90​
91.294.239​
44,6%​
Aon​
4.396.000​
12,12​
53.279.520​
58,51​
257.209.960​
20,7%​
Charter Communications​
3.828.941​
30,77​
117.816.515​
329,21​
1.260.525.667​
9,3%​
Bank of NY Mellon​
25.069.867​
2,90​
72.702.614​
19,69​
493.625.681​
14,7%​
McKesson​
2.855.514​
21,81​
62.278.760​
1.890,70​
5.398.920.320​
1,2%​
Celanese​
9.710.183​
17,36​
168.568.777​
88,66​
860.904.825​
19,6%​
Amazon​
10.666.000​
-0,27​
-2.879.820​
50,25​
535.966.500​
-0,5%​
Snowflake​
6.125.376​
-2,29​
-14.027.111​
5,89​
36.078.465​
-38,9%​
Liberty SiriusXM A​
20.207.680​
2,68​
54.156.582​
26,06​
526.612.141​
10,3%​
Globe Life​
6.353.727​
7,47​
47.462.341​
52,68​
334.714.338​
14,2%​
T-Mobile US​
5.242.000​
2,06​
10.798.520​
63,46​
332.657.320​
3,2%​
Ally Financial​
29.800.000​
4,97​
148.106.000​
29,07​
866.286.000​
17,1%​
Markel​
467.611​
-23,22​
-10.857.927​
870,14​
406.887.036​
-2,7%​
RH​
2.360.000​
26,22​
61.879.200​
133,51​
315.083.600​
19,6%​
Taiwan Semiconductor​
8.292.724​
6,51​
53.985.633​
14,53​
120.493.280​
44,8%​
Liberty Media F1​
7.722.451​
-0,13​
-1.003.919​
10,80​
83.402.471​
-1,2%​
Nu Holdings​
107.118.784​
-0,08​
-8.569.503​
0,63​
67.484.834​
-12,7%​
Lousiana-Pacific​
7.044.909​
13,27​
93.485.942​
50,80​
357.881.377​
26,1%​
Floor & Decor​
4.780.000​
2,77​
13.240.600​
39,69​
189.718.200​
7,0%​
US Bancorp​
6.670.835​
3,71​
24.748.798​
16,23​
108.267.652​
22,9%​
StoneCo​
10.695.448​
-1,04​
-11.123.266​
6,36​
68.023.049​
-16,4%​
Johnson & Johnson​
327.100​
6,74​
2.204.654​
35,66​
11.664.386​
18,9%​
Marsh & McLennan​
404.911​
6,02​
2.437.564​
41,02​
16.609.449​
14,7%​
Procter & Gamble​
315.400​
5,70​
1.797.780​
32,00​
10.092.800​
17,8%​
Liberty LiLAC A​
2.630.792​
-0,77​
-2.025.710​
20,72​
54.510.010​
-3,7%​
Mondelez​
578.000​
1,96​
1.132.880​
22,75​
13.149.500​
8,6%​
Jefferies Financial​
433.558​
3,04​
1.318.016​
28,08​
12.174.309​
10,8%​
Liberty LiLAC C​
1.284.020​
-0,77​
-988.695​
20,72​
26.604.894​
-3,7%​
United Parcel Service​
59.400​
13,20​
784.080​
114,71​
6.813.774​
11,5%​
TOTALE​
19.909.444.499​
129.721.250.646​
15,3%​
 
P/E di 13,3? Così basso? 😀
 
Munger said he had made most of his money from just four investments: Berkshire, retailer Costco, his investment in a fund managed by Li Lu’s Himalaya Capital and Afton Properties, a real estate venture that owns apartment buildings in California and New Jersey.

https://archive.ph/H1zet
 
https://archive.ph/DRfnA


brk.jpg
 
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps billions of dollars of US stocks Cash pile rises by $2bn to $130.6bn as sprawling conglomerate finds little to spend on Shareholders gather at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual conference in Omaha, Nebraska © Chris Machian/Omaha World-Herald/AP Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps billions of dollars of US stocks on twitter (opens in a new window) Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps billions of dollars of US stocks on facebook (opens in a new window) Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumps billions of dollars of US stocks on linkedin (opens in a new window) Save current progress 96% Eric Platt in Omaha 10 HOURS AGO 118 Print this page Receive free Berkshire Hathaway Inc updates We’ll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest Berkshire Hathaway Inc news every morning. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold billions of dollars worth of stock and invested little money in the US equity market in the first three months of the year, a signal the famed investor saw little appeal in a volatile market. Berkshire disclosed on Saturday that it had sold shares worth $13.3bn in the first quarter and bought stocks for a fraction of that figure. Instead, it put $4.4bn towards repurchasing its own stock, as well as $2.9bn on the shares of other publicly traded businesses. The figures underscore the struggle Berkshire faces in putting its mountain of cash to work at a time when Buffett and his longtime right-hand man Charlie Munger regard valuations as unappetising. The company’s cash pile has risen by $2bn since the start of this year to $130.6bn, its highest level since the end of 2021. Munger last month told the Financial Times that investors should reduce their expectations for stock market returns as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and the economy slows. The pair were joined on stage in downtown Omaha by Gregory Abel and Ajit Jain, two Berkshire vice chairs, for the company’s much anticipated annual meeting. Tens of thousands of shareholders descended on the Midwest city to hear from Buffett and the Berkshire team this weekend, where they discussed artificial intelligence and its effects on the investment world, their views on Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — Musk overestimated himself, Buffett said — as well as succession at the company. Recommended InterviewBerkshire Hathaway Inc Charlie Munger: US banks are ‘full of’ bad commercial property loans Buffett was relatively sanguine about the prospects for the company he has led for the past 58 years, as well as the broader economy, which has powered through aggressive rate hikes from the Fed and a series of bank failures that have rattled confidence in the financial system. He noted that the effects of the slowing economy were only just beginning to be felt by Berkshire, although he did not paint a dour picture of the economy. Buffett said he expected earnings to decline at the majority of its businesses this year. “It isn’t that employment has fallen off a cliff or anything, but it is a different climate than it was six months ago,” he said. “A number of our managers were surprised. Some had too much inventory on order.” Higher interest rates, however, have also been a boon to Berkshire. The company invests the vast majority of its $130.6bn of cash in short-term Treasury bills and bank deposits. Income on those short-term bills and cash-like deposits surged to $1.1bn, up from $164mn a year prior. Buffett was pressed for his thoughts on the health of the US banking system, which is in the midst of crisis, given the investor’s long tenure and history backstopping the industry. The billionaire investor said Berkshire had grown more cautious about investing in the industry given the rapid deposit flight some banks have suffered. It is a change from previous crises, when Berkshire’s capital helped shore up both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. The latter is now a core holding in the company’s stock portfolio. Buffett declined to say whether it was cutting its position in Activision Blizzard, which it bet heavily on after Microsoft agreed to buy the game-maker. Activision shares have tumbled since UK regulators moved to block the takeover, throwing the arbitrage trade made by Berkshire and a litany of hedge funds into turmoil. Disclosures have shown that Berkshire increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum during the quarter, however Buffett on Saturday said the company was not planning to take control of the oil company. Investors will have to wait until later in May to see how the company shifted its portfolio, although its quarterly filing indicated it sold a sizable portion of its stake in oil major Chevron. Berkshire reported a profit of $35.5bn in the first quarter, or $24,377 per class A share, largely driven by a rally in stocks that lifted the value of its $328bn portfolio of shares. Profit was up from $5.6bn a year before. Operating earnings — Buffett’s preferred performance measure for Berkshire’s diverse group of businesses — rose 12.6 per cent from the year to $8.1bn. For the first time the figure includes the results of truck stop business Pilot Flying J, which Berkshire took majority control of in January. One of Berkshire’s crown jewels, the Geico auto insurer, swung to an underwriting profit after six consecutive quarters of losses. The company said that scaling back advertising and raising policy rates had helped the unit generate a $703mn underwriting profit. The impact of higher interest rates and slower economic growth was evident across the businesses, which span the Dairy Queen ice cream purveyor, aeroplane parts manufacturer Precision Castparts and the BNSF railroad. Berkshire warned lower home sales continued to weigh on Clayton Homes, one of the largest makers of modular homes in the US, and that sales across its other housing businesses had fallen at the start of the year. Traffic on its BNSF railroad also fell at the start of the year, which the company blamed on lower imports from the west coast and the loss of a customer. Buffett was also questioned over the significant role Apple plays in the Berkshire empire, with its stake in the iPhone maker valued at $151bn at the end of the first quarter — just under half the value of its entire stock portfolio. “It just happens to be a better business than any we own,” he said. “Our railroad is a very good business but its not remotely as good as Apple’s business.” The investor struck a fairly upbeat tone at the meeting, joking that the coronation of King Charles III was a “competing broadcast” on Saturday. Berkshire stock has risen by 4.9 per cent since the start of the year.
 
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