Bond in sterline ne abbiamo?

[francesco3]

Guardando i titoli elencati in precedenza, e considerati i rendimenti lordi (io guardo quelli perche', essendo residente in UK, ho dei vantaggi fiscali a comprare gilts, diciamo che sono acquisti esentasse, o quasi) ottengo questo:

Gilt 2023, rendimento lordo 4.1%, netto 3.73%
Gilt 2024, rendimento lordo 4.17%, netto 3.81%
Gilt 2039, rendimento lordo 4.11%, netto 3.57%
Gilt 2044, rendimento lordo 4.18%, netto 3.73%
Gilt 2045, rendimento lordo 4.19%, netto 3.71%

Tutti e 5 sono abbastanza illiquidi, quindi io mi rassegno ad operazioni settimanali o mensili, assolutamente non riesco a fare operazioni intraday (parlo per me). Ad oggi, ho operato sul 2023, il 2044 ed il 2045; mentre non sono ancora riuscito ad entrare sul 2024 e sul 2039.

Al momento sono liquido, dopo aver venduto in gain il 2044 verso fine aprile.

ah ok, ho capito, quindi li usi per fare trading, io sono in ottica cassettista, volevo diversificare un po', ho visto che quello che avevo scelto, per via delle cedole più alte, non è liquido per niente. c'è il rischio cambio, però mi sembra che 0,87 sia un buon valore. Vorrà dire che seguirò il 44 e il 45

 

[Massimo Odiot]

ah ok, ho capito, quindi li usi per fare trading, io sono in ottica cassettista, volevo diversificare un po', ho visto che quello che avevo scelto, per via delle cedole più alte, non è liquido per niente. c'è il rischio cambio, però mi sembra che 0,87 sia un buon valore. Vorrà dire che seguirò il 44 e il 45

Si', il 2039 l'ho sempre trovato molto illiquido, proprio per via del cedolone... Il 2044, avendo la cedola piu' bassa, ma comunque "attraente" , di solito e' un po' piu' vivace nelle contrattazioni...

Un altro titolo purtroppo illiquidissimo e' l'intesa san paolo Intsanpaolo Tf 5,35% Nv24 Gbp XS2551345312
Lordo al 5% che a me interesserebbe decisamente... Ma netto al 3.5%, ma soprattutto e' completamente lasciata a se stessa, illiquidissima... Quindi ne sto alla larga

 

[gardener]

Guardando i titoli elencati in precedenza, e considerati i rendimenti lordi (io guardo quelli perche', essendo residente in UK, ho dei vantaggi fiscali a comprare gilts, diciamo che sono acquisti esentasse, o quasi) ottengo questo:

Gilt 2023, rendimento lordo 4.1%, netto 3.73%
Gilt 2024, rendimento lordo 4.17%, netto 3.81%
Gilt 2039, rendimento lordo 4.11%, netto 3.57%
Gilt 2044, rendimento lordo 4.18%, netto 3.73%
Gilt 2045, rendimento lordo 4.19%, netto 3.71%

Tutti e 5 sono abbastanza illiquidi, quindi io mi rassegno ad operazioni settimanali o mensili, assolutamente non riesco a fare operazioni intraday (parlo per me). Ad oggi, ho operato sul 2023, il 2044 ed il 2045; mentre non sono ancora riuscito ad entrare sul 2024 e sul 2039.

Al momento sono liquido, dopo aver venduto in gain il 2044 verso fine aprile.

Il mio preferito tra i gilt rimane il 2045 3,5% .
Segnalo EIB 2026 1% , si prende a 90 e rende a scadenza il 4% netto

 

[Massimo Odiot]

Fresh Gilt-Sale Blockbuster Is Coming as UK Lures Pension Funds​

• Debt office is selling its longest conventional bond in a year
• Sale to offer fresh insight into demand from UK pension funds

By
Alice Gledhill, James Hirai and Naomi Tajitsu
14 May 2023 at 08:00 BST

The UK’s sale of ultra-long gilts this week will offer the highest coupon in almost 15 years, a sign of the elevated funding costs that governments must now bear.

The 40-year conventional bond will pay 4%, reflecting the jump in yields after more than a year of interest-rate hikes. But it may have to offer an additional concession to lure a key part of the buyer base.

Investors say the bond will need to price at a discount — below par — to attract pension funds pursuing liability-driven investment strategies, who prefer lower coupons due to their higher duration — market parlance for interest-rate sensitivity.

If priced correctly, money managers say the offer could go as well as a recent inflation-linked sale that drew record demand.

UK Bonds Find Local Appeal ​

Domestic investors bought a record sum of gilts last quarter

“The success of the long-dated index linked bond syndication at the end of April showed that the LDI market is alive and well,” said Robert Scammell, senior portfolio manager at Van Lanschot Kempen, who is considering buying the notes. “There is no reason to think that the nominal bond on offer, providing it is priced appropriately, would not continue the trend.”

Another successful sale would show how the UK government is managing to raise funds for a budget laden with crisis spending, even as it comes just days after the Bank of England lifted rates to 4.5% and left the door open to further tightening. The Debt Management Office is planning to sell £237.8 billion ($296 billion) of gilts in the fiscal year 2023 to 2024.

Pension funds were at the center of the gilts crisis in September, forced to dump their holdings amid the fallout from former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s announcement of unfunded tax cuts. While they’re not the only investors to buy these ultra-long securities, their participation is particularly important in such a supply-heavy year.

Britain’s financial services watchdog has since implemented a series of reforms to amend shortcomings in the risk management of LDI investment strategies. That regulatory clarity should encourage fresh buying by those funds, according to Daniela Russell, head of UK rates strategy at HSBC Bank Plc.

“Many are likely to see the syndication as a key point of improved liquidity,” she said. “With long-end yields above 4% — and likely to move lower as we move through the year – current valuations provide an attractive level at which schemes can de-risk.”

UK Regulators Want LDI Pensions to Be Ready for Future Bond Rout

BOE data also point to healthy demand for gilts: domestic buyers bought a record number in the first quarter of the year, despite policymakers’ ongoing battle with inflation still at the highest among developed markets.

A surprisingly resilient UK economy has paved the way for additional interest-rate hikes, pushing terminal rate pricing to around 5% later this year, according to money-market wagers.

Gilts have fared poorly relative to other markets against that backdrop.

UK 10-year bonds are poised to lose out to their US equivalents for a record seventh month. The extra yield investors demand to hold UK bonds compared with similar-maturity German ones is increasing for a fourth month, the longest streak since October 2020.

The question now is when investors should jump in without getting stuck with a depreciating bond if rates go even higher.

Ian Fishwick, a fixed income portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said markets are still weighing flagging growth against still-stubborn inflation. The UK economy shrank unexpectedly in March, which seemingly runs counter to the BOE’s biggest upgrade to growth projections in a quarter century.

“We would like to go a bit longer in terms of absolute duration,” said Fishwick. “However, as we don’t know where rates will peak, it is hard to gauge what the correct downward slope on the curve should be and therefore we are currently neutral on duration.”

Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Aviva Investors see UK bonds recovering as the economic blow from a combined 4.4 percentage points of interest-rate hikes makes itself felt and hastens a drop in the inflation rate.

“The BOE should have plenty of scope to conclude they’ve done enough tightening” by its next meeting, said Alexander Batten, fixed income portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle. He expects inflation to be closer to 7% by that point compared with more than 10% now.

BOE Chief Economist Says UK Inflation at ‘Turning Point’

The more the BOE hikes, the larger and quicker the cuts when they come, said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. He’s long gilts on a cross-market basis and sees yields supported over the medium term.

“The headwinds are going to start to hit,” he said.

 

[Massimo Odiot]

Andrew Bailey admits Britain is suffering a wage-price spiral

Bank of England governor signals UK faces a longer crisis than expected in battle to tame inflation
By Eir Nolsøe 17 May 2023 • 4:00pm

Andrew Bailey has admitted for the first time that the UK is fighting a wage-price spiral, in a sign the Bank of England is increasingly concerned the country faces a protracted crisis.

The central bank governor told business leaders in London that even as the initial shocks from the energy crisis were wearing off and headline inflation would likely fall, “second round effects” were unlikely “to go away as quickly as they appeared”.

Threadneedle Street officials have consistently said that the Bank was raising interest rates to avoid high inflation becoming entrenched in the wider economy through wages and prices.

Mr Bailey acknowledging that such second-round effects are rippling through the UK means that the Bank failed to keep a lid on domestically generated inflation.

It comes as data released on Tuesday showed that private sector wages grew by 7pc in the three months to March, far higher than is consistent with the Bank’s 2pc inflation target.

He said: “Some of the strength in core inflation reflects the indirect effects of higher energy prices. But it also reflects second-round effects as the external shocks we have seen interact with the state of the domestic economy.”

The warning also suggests that inflation could take much longer to fall than initially expected, meaning interest rates would have to stay higher for longer.

Mr Bailey said: “While we expect CPI inflation to fall quite sharply as energy costs begin to ease, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than projected in February given the near-term outlook for food prices, the outlook for inflation further out is more uncertain and depends on the extent of persistence in wage and price setting.”

He said that while there were signs of the labour market starting to loosen, it was happening more slowly than the Bank had predicted only months ago.

The job market still remains very tight, he added. Vacancies are also still very high despite coming down marginally, which adds to inflation as employers have to compete harder for workers by raising salaries.

The Bank has already raised interest rates 12 times to 4.5pc. Mr Bailey said policymakers would have to lift borrowing costs further “if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures”.

He added that “near-term indicators suggest that pay growth could ease further later this year”, however.

Mr Bailey also defended the Bank’s record on inflation again, saying Threadneedle Street would have had to raise interest rates well into double digits during the pandemic if it had perfect foresight. This would have pushed up unemployment substantially and carried massive risks.

“Monetary policy can’t make the impact on real incomes go away I’m afraid,” he said.

He added: “I’d like to push back strongly against one argument you sometimes hear, which is that inflation is high because monetary policy was too loose in the past.”

The Bank of England has faced growing criticism for its failure to stem inflation, which has remained in double digits for eight months in the past year.

Several economists have claimed that the Bank’s quantitative easing programme during the pandemic - which saw it buy bonds largely from the government – likely added to rapid consumer price growth.

Mr Bailey acknowledged that the Bank was facing the “biggest test” of its inflation-targeting regime, with prices in recent months rising at the fastest pace in around 40 years.

Inflation in the UK was at 10.1pc in March. Mr Bailey said he expected it to fall by around one percentage point when data for April is released next week.

 

[cthulhu]

Il mio preferito tra i gilt rimane il 2045 3,5% .
Segnalo EIB 2026 1% , si prende a 90 e rende a scadenza il 4% netto

Guardavo proprio adesso il 45 è sui minimi (non considerando i minimi della recente crisi dei fondi) ... Però non è che abbia rendimenti strabilianti
Vediamo i prossimi giorni magari se va sugli 85 un pensierino

 

[Massimo Odiot]

Guardavo proprio adesso il 45 è sui minimi (non considerando i minimi della recente crisi dei fondi) ... Però non è che abbia rendimenti strabilianti
Vediamo i prossimi giorni magari se va sugli 85 un pensierino

Io sono entrato ieri sul 2044... Ovviamente son gia' sotto di una figura...
Per quanto riguarda eventuali nuovi minimi, settimana prossima dovrebbero uscire i dati sull'inflazione di aprile, vediamo quanto saranno brutti e se e quanto muoveranno le quotazioni... Io ormai ho dato e rimango a cedolare.

 

[Massimo Odiot]

Niente da fare, ho cannato completamente l'ingresso... A volte, 24 ore possono fare la differenza... Resto in attesa di capire a cosa sia dovuta la discesa... Spero non a notizie come questa, che dovrebbero essere gia' note e stranote...

IIF: debito globale $305 trilioni. Boom spese interessi - FinanzaOnline

 

[cthulhu]

Niente da fare, ho cannato completamente l'ingresso... A volte, 24 ore possono fare la differenza... Resto in attesa di capire a cosa sia dovuta la discesa... Spero non a notizie come questa, che dovrebbero essere gia' note e stranote...

IIF: debito globale $305 trilioni. Boom spese interessi - FinanzaOnline

oggi scendono tutti, Italia, Austria ecc
pare invertire la tendenza invece, la Turchia... ma viene da giorni molto negativi

 

[Massimo Odiot]

oggi scendono tutti, Italia, Austria ecc
pare invertire la tendenza invece, la Turchia... ma viene da giorni molto negativi

Eh la Turchia e' un caso a parte, cause elezioni... Ci avevo buttato un occhio, in questi giorni, ma la patata e' troppo bollente per i miei gusti, la lascio ad investitori piu' esperti di me...

 

[Massimo Odiot]

Vabbe' abbiamo capito... Anche oggi parlano quelli della Bank of England e quindi si scende... Il problema sembra essere il quantitative tightening, ovvero decine di miliardi di gilts in pancia alla BoE che stan vendendo sul mercato (in perdita), e che continueranno a vendere ad oltranza.

3h ago10.58 BST

Bailey insists QT isn't destabilising markets​

Q: Is the Bank of England certain that QT is not having any impact on the market? We’ve had a bank failure since you started… Is it having any inflationary or disinflationary pressures?

Governor Andrew Bailey says he doesn’t see any connection between quantitative tightening and the events in the banking sector.

As proof, he points out that the UK banking system has not experienced stress in recent months – the failure of Silicon Valley UK bank was a “very idiosyncratic issue”, because it was the subsidiary of a bank that failed in the US.

Bailey then explains that UK banks hold £1.5 trillion of “high quality liquid assets”, of which £900bn is reserves at the Bank of England. The BoE’s QT programme should reduce those reserves, with banks looking to hold other high quality liquid assets instead.

But that rebalancing should be “entirely manageable and entirely natural”, he pledges….

Deputy governor Ben Broadbent reiterates that QT is already priced into the financial markets, and those asset price levels are used in the Bank’s economic forecasts.

Broadbent says the Bank can’t tell exactly what impact QT is having, because it has already announced it (so it’s priced in…). But the Bank’s best bet is that it is having a fairly modest impact, maybe just 0.1 percentage point on inflation.


3h ago10.47 BST

Ramsden: QT could go up a little bit​

Q: How might the size of the Bank’s QT programme change in future years?

Deputy governor Sir Dave Ramsden says the Bank won’t definitely plump for another £80bn reduction in its bond holdings next year.

That’s because it would mean lower ‘active sales’ of bonds, given that more of the Bank’s stock of gilts expires next year.

Ramsden says bank analysis will determine the pace of QT:

So there’s the potential for us to go up a little bit. I don’t see us going down, given the experience of the first year.

 

[Ipse dixit]

Tassi in salita da qualche giorno (oggi 4,32% sul decennale), vicini ai massimi di ott-nov 22

 

[Massimo Odiot]

Tassi in salita da qualche giorno (oggi 4,32% sul decennale), vicini ai massimi di ott-nov 22

Inflazione fuori controllo, soprattutto per quanto riguarda gli alimentari, e governo che vagheggia di calmierare i prezzi di alcuni prodotti...

Probabile che si arrivi a tassi BOE al 5% ora di settembre, visto che dubito fortemente che la gente smettera' di spendere e spandere nei mesi estivi, anzi...

Io mi son preso per bene in faccia questo crollo delle quotazioni, sto sotto del 5% e cedolo in doloroso silenzio...

 

[Massimo Odiot]

Bank forecast to raise rates above 5% as UK inflation falls by less than expected

Bank of England says inflation has ‘turned corner’ despite soaring food prices

 

[shark2007]

Entrato stamane con un simbolico di 1.000 nominale sul bond: UK TSY 45 REG S 3.5%... al pmc = 85
Avevo da tempo delle sterline sul multi-currency che non sapevo come utilizzare ed allora, per non lasciarle ammuffire, ho pensato di investirle in un governativo inglese a lunga scadenza...

 

[cthulhu]

Entrato stamane con un simbolico di 1.000 nominale sul bond: UK TSY 45 REG S 3.5%... al pmc = 85
Avevo da tempo delle sterline sul multi-currency che non sapevo come utilizzare ed allora, per non lasciarle ammuffire, ho pensato di investirle in un governativo inglese a lunga scadenza...

Sono tentato anche io per lo stesso motivo, ma il rendimento non mi pare molto congruo... Del resto a lasciarle sul multicurrency me le remunerano con un 2,5 circa netto...

 

[Ipse dixit]

Per chi acquista ora comunque rendimenti di tutto rispetto anche con emittenti affidabili
Si vedono cose che si sono viste solo l'anno scorso nel pieno del marasma Truss
L'unica differenza, se si parte in euro, la sterlina allora era messa anche peggio (sopra 0,90)

 

[Ipse dixit]

Per caso qualcuno ha individuato titoli interessanti indicizzati all'inflazione ?

 

[BondTrad]

Metto qui la mia opinione su qualsiasi investimento in attivi UK (non solo obbligazioni).

Primo problema l'inflazione UK è ad alto rischio; lo ha ammesso una settimana fa il governatore della Bank of England "Bank of England governor admits UK economy suffering from wage-price spiral. Andrew Bailey pledges to raise interest rates as far ‘as necessary’ to bring inflation down to 2% [wishful thinking in my opinion]":
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
Pessimo per le obbligazioni, ma anche per azioni e real estate perché tassi molto alti riducono investimenti (prestiti per investimenti si riducono molto dovuto ad alto costo)

Secondo problema più importante: politica (volontaria o involontaria a me non frega nulla) degli incompetenti al governo UK svalutare la Sterlina a lungo termine soprattutto con grandi svalutazioni quando ci sono crisi finanziarie. Il grafico contro EUR (parte dal 2003) lo mostra ma relativamente poco (dovuto alla debolezza dell'EUR attuale che ha cause profonde nell'incompetenza BCE a direzione Lagarde e ultimi governi tedeschi):
GBPEUR=X Interactive Stock Chart | GBP/EUR Stock - Yahoo Finance

Contro il Dollaro è chiarissimo (nonostante gli americani hanno fatto di tutto per svalutare USD ):
Pound Dollar Exchange Rate (GBP USD) - Historical Chart
Dal 2008 si è svalutata di più del 40% e questa è vera svalutazione visto che beni reali (quello che si mangia o si usa) sono prezzati in USD. Non è un caso che i recuperi della sterlina su USD siano stati con governi Thatcher e Blair.

Io sono persino preoccupato su emittenti corporate decenti UK (che non siano multinazionali) di obbligazioni denominate in EUR (ce ne sono un paio che mi interessano). Dal 2007 ci sono stati solo governi di incompetenti in economia e il prossimo (Starmer) sarà ancora peggio. La Sterlina non è valuta di riserva, quindi rischio cambiario è molto più alto che quello su USD. Ricordarsi che tutti i governi e grande imprese hanno bisogno di Dollari per comprare beni reali (e anche molti servizi) ma non di Sterline (questo avviene da Bretton Woods 1944).

 

[WarrenRiccio]

Entrato su questo: UK TSY 39 4.25 preso a 96,80. Un pò paura per il cambio ma spero risulti un'ottima diversificazione...