Db X-Trackers MSCI world Energy Index Ucits Etf IE00BM67HM91 (ex LU0540980736)

Le compagnie petrolifere faranno ancora soldi perché diminuiranno i volumi di petrolio per fare carburanti ma aumenteranno quelli di gas per fare corrente. Paradossalmente in un Paese come la Cina dove ormai si vendono solo macchine elettriche continueranno a bruciare carbone per molti anni.

Le previsioni sui futuri consumi di petrolio da parte dell' IEA e dell' OPEC divergono tra loro. Sono più propenso a credere valide le previsioni OPEC.

There is also divergence over the longer-term prospects for oil demand, with the IEA last year predicting that it would peak before 2030, along with natural gas demand and coal demand. This prediction seems to have been the last drop for OPEC, which reacted with a sharp warning to the IEA to stop politicizing energy, accusing it of cheerleading for the energy transition and letting this affect the accuracy of its forecasts.

IEA, OPEC Divergence on Oil Demand Becomes Too Big To Ignore | OilPrice.com
 
That chart shows that energy stocks make up less than 4% of the S&P 500 by market cap. That's the second lowest level over the past few decades, including less than during the dot-com bubble. Because energy stocks supply 10% of the S&P 500's earnings, the sector should have around a 10% weighting since it has historically tracked its earnings contribution. That would put it near the historical average.
The other factor weighing on energy stocks is the misplaced belief that demand for oil and gas is declining. That's not the case. Muncrief noted that: "With global energy demand forecasted to increase 50% by 2050, the world is going to need growth from all sources of energy, including oil and natural gas. With the world's power needs continuing to grow, it is evident that peak oil demand is nowhere in sight and our industry will be an important contributor of energy growth for the foreseeable future." Valuations in the energy sector should reflect this growth, not the decline that the market is currently pricing in for most energy stocks.

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Kinder Morgan (KMI-N) Quote - Press Release
 
Il tempo ci dirà chi ha ragione tra l'OPEC o l'IEA. La domanda che viene posta qui al terzo paragrafo merita una seria riflessione, perché la sicurezza energetica è legata a doppio filo alla crescita economica e determina il supporto degli elettori alla politica.

In an op-ed for the Middle East Economic Survey last week, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais called on those predicting the end of oil to take it a bit easier because these predictions could be dangerous—especially since oil demand is very much not declining as the predictions say.
“Such assertions, despite all evidence to the contrary, are all the more dangerous given their potential to foster energy policies that stoke energy chaos,” Al Ghais said, citing a report by the Economist on, as he put it, “the end of oil.”
Interestingly enough, the Economist has published several articles recently on the topic of peak oil in evidence of the importance of the topic and, perhaps more importantly, the importance that some appear to see in trying to convince the public that human civilization can and should survive without oil. But, asks OPEC’s head, “What if investments in supply fall as a result, but demand for oil keeps increasing, as we are seeing today?”
This is not a new argument. In fact, it is OPEC’s main argument in the war of words with organizations such as the International Energy Agency, which last year called “the beginning of the end” of the oil and gas era, forecasting demand for all three hydrocarbon fuels would peak by 2030.

E' difficile trovare un tema più politicizzato dell'energia, visto l'impatto che ha sulla vita delle persone.

Energy poverty is a huge concern in most of the world, population-wise speaking. There are hundreds of millions of people with no access to any electricity, let alone one generated by wind and solar. A lot of these people want to be able to produce their own electricity from their own national resources, yet lenders such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are limiting access to funding for projects unless they are “aligned” with transition targets—essentially dooming these people to energy poverty.

OPEC Chief Challenges Reports Predicting Demise of Oil Demand | OilPrice.com
 
Il petrolio ha il più alto inflation beta, peccato che il rollover dei futures rende l'investimento tramite etc poco redditizio rispetto all'andamento del prezzo spot.

Inflation Revisited
 
Il price cap del G7 al petrolio russo non ha funzionato. La flotta di petroliere fantasma ha aggirato le sanzioni usando compagnie di assicurazioni e petroliere del resto del mondo. E i compratori non sono mancati.

The UK-based insurance group notes that 800 oil tankers that it used to insure have switched over to the shadow fleet to transport sanctioned Russian oil being sold above the $60 price cap.
Three weeks ago, Argus Media data cited by Bloomberg indicated that Russia’s flagship Urals grade crude was being exported for around $75 per barrel, or $15 above the G7 price cap of $60, which took effect at the end of 2022 when the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian seaborne crude imports.

Growing Shadow Fleet Makes Oil Price Cap Impossible to Police | OilPrice.com
 
Dove ci sarà la crescita della popolazione nei prossimi decenni?

"They [Global North] are putting a lot of funds to create the transition," Nasser said in a special meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Saudi capital Riyadh. "It doesn't work where the demand is today. Fifty to 60% of the demand is in the Global South. By 2050, 80% of the hydrocarbon demand is going to be in the Global South. So, we need to take that into consideration if we are worried about emissions. We need to focus on a mission rather than picking winners or losers."
"Coal is an average of $50/boe, LNG [liquefied natural gas] is $70/boe and oil is fluctuating between $80/b and 90/b. Countries have different priorities and will go for the most affordable," Nasser said.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityi...-oil-demand-to-come-from-global-south-by-2050
 
Credo sia quasi certo il fatto che il petrolio sta scontando un premio per il rischio geopolitico. Ma non credo sia dell'entità indicata da Doomberg in questa intervista.

 
The Energy sector is reporting the second-largest (year-over-year) earnings decline of all 11 market sectors at -25.5% while Q1 2024 revenue growth of -3.5% is the third lowest
Oil and gas companies could see a rebound in the current quarter, with FactSet predicting Q2 earnings growth of 15.7%, 3rd highest in the S&P 500 while Q2 revenue growth of 4.0% will be the market’s 6th highest.
Unfortunately for the bulls, the rebound will probably only be short-lived.
FactSet has predicted earnings growth of -3.0% for the energy sector in CY 2024 while revenue is expected to grow -0.4%. The sector’s earnings are likely to improve in the coming year, with FactSet predicting 8.2% growth in CY 2025 while revenue is seen growing 1.2%.
However, energy’s growth rates in both years will come in below market averages with S&P 500 earnings predicted to expand 10.8% in CY 2024 and 13.9% in CY 2025 while revenue is expected to grow 4.9% in CY 2024 and 5.8% in CY 2025.

Will Big Oil See Better Earnings In Q2? | OilPrice.com
 
"The oil and gas industry has experienced a number of booms and busts over the past few decades, but for now, it appears to be flush with cash," Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Andrew John Stevenson said, as quoted by the publication.
Thanks to these developments, oil and gas producers' ratio of net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization has dropped from 2.4 in 2020 to 0.8 last year, Stevenson also said, adding that by 2030, this ratio could dip below zero, which would make the industry quite unique—and quite appealing to investors.

Cash-flush Oil Industry Has Less Appetite For Debt | OilPrice.com
 
La vendita di auto elettriche in Europa non ingrana secondo i programmi. Nemmeno per i produttori cinesi con prezzi molto competitivi.

Some Chinese brand EVs had been sitting in European ports for up to 18 months, while some ports had asked importers to provide proof of onward transport, according to industry executives. One car logistics expert said many of the unloaded vehicles were simply staying in the ports until they were sold to distributors or end users.

Belgium's Ports Are Brimming With Unsold Chinese EVs | OilPrice.com
 
Una crescita economica di questo tipo è irrealizzabile, ed è chiaramente una provocazione intellettuale.

In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!

Ma va messo in conto un aumento dei consumi di energia da parte della classe media dei paesi emergenti.

The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.

The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.

Why the IEA is Wrong About Peak Oil Demand | OilPrice.com

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Ultima modifica di un moderatore:
Nei prossimi decenni assisteremo ad una diversificazione del business delle aziende del settore oil&gas.

ExxonMobil (XOM) will still be producing oil and gas in 2050, the energy company's CEO told Yahoo Finance on Monday, but fossil fuels will likely be a smaller part of the business.
"The products that we make in 2050 may be very different than the products that we make today," said Woods. He cited for instance a resin material derived from fuel molecules that can be used to replace the reinforcing bars commonly used in construction projects.
The comments come as Exxon and others in the industry have doubled down on oil and gas through new deals. This week the energy giant closed its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, making Exxon the biggest Permian Basin player. Woods highlighted the company's goal of producing more oil in a more cost-effective way while accelerating net-zero operations.

ExxonMobil will 'still be producing oil and gas' in 2050: CEO
 
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