Novartis

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Apro un thread su questo gigante farmaceutico visto che l'ultimo era un po' datato. :)

Oggi è uscita la trimestrale, non malvagia, ma sotto le attese.

Novartis Profit Misses Analyst Estimates, Shares Drop


Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Novartis AG’s fourth-quarter profit missed analysts’ estimates, sending the Swiss drugmaker’s shares to their lowest level in more than three months.

Net income rose to $1.5 billion, or 68 cents a share, from $904 million, or 40 cents, a year earlier, the Basel, Switzerland-based company said. Product withdrawals and generic-drug competition had depressed earnings a year ago. Sales were little changed overall, while drug revenue increased 5 percent. Novartis shares fell as much as 4.3 percent.

“The pharma unit didn’t deliver,” said Joerg De Vries- Hippen, chief investment officer in European equities at Allianz Global Investors in Frankfurt. “Pharma is supposed to be a safe haven in the current environment.”

Chief Executive Officer Daniel Vasella has cut jobs and reined in spending as Novartis prepares for the patent expiration on its hypertension drug Diovan. Europe’s fourth- largest drugmaker reduced its dependence on prescription medicines by developing its own generic treatments and vaccines and acquiring a stake in eye-care company Alcon Inc. last year.

Profit from continuing operations last quarter was $1.51 billion, falling short of the $1.78 billion median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Drug Mergers

Novartis fell 1.97 francs, or 3.8 percent, to 49.48 Swiss francs at 9:31 a.m. in Zurich trading. The drugmaker’s shares fell 10 percent in 2008, making it the eighth-worst-performing stock on the Bloomberg Europe Pharmaceutical Index.

A year ago, earnings were held back by generic competition and product withdrawals. Sales of five products, including the Famvir herpes medicine and the irritable bowel treatment Zelnorm had fallen by almost half to $1.7 billion from 2006 after the medicines either faced generic competition or were pulled from the market.

Vasella said Novartis will continue to make small acquisitions but probably won’t take part in a bigger wave of industry mergers.

“The most important thing is to grow organically,” he said in a televised interview. “But you have to act with your eyes wide open” after Pfizer Inc.’s $68 billion bid for Wyeth earlier this week. He said he doesn’t view the enlarged Pfizer as a competitive threat.

This year at Novartis, sales from continuing operations will probably rise at a mid-single-digit rate this year. Drug sales will likely grow at a mid-to-high-single-digit rate in local currencies, Novartis said.

The company’s experimental drug for multiple sclerosis fingolimod, a pill aimed at making treatment less painful for patients, is still expected for submission to regulators at the end of 2009, Novartis said.

The Swiss drugmaker is preparing for generic competition in 2012 with a clutch of new drugs including several combination heart pills and the Afinitor cancer drug.

Q4 Results Snapshot:

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Grafico a 5 anni in dollari visto che la presentazioni di Novartis usano l'USD.

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Io dico di monitorarla e aspettarla, perchè i flussi di cassa della società sono consistenti, finanziariamente è forte, i margini sono alti e il business è anticiclico. I rischi sono principalmente: Difficoltà nel recuperare i ricavi del Diovan il cui patent scade nel 2012, concorrenza dei generici, possibili future acquisizioni che potrebbero aver un impatto negativo nel breve termine per gli azionisti Novartis.
 
Novartis è free debt giusto ? Quanto ha in cassa ?
 
ciao seven dici di aspettarla ancora più in giù?
 
Novartis è free debt giusto ? Quanto ha in cassa ?

Cassa ed equivalenti 6.1B, Debiti finanziari non correnti 2.1B. Netto cambiamento rispetto al 2007 dopo l'acquisizione della partecipazione in Alcon da Nestlè.
Una delle poche società al mondo a permettersi un rating AAA da tutte le maggiori agenzie di rating, anche se visti i tempi che corrono meglio farsi le analisi sul debito da soli. :D

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Quasi impossibile il take-over su Roche:

Roche Closes Door to Suitors, Leaving Novartis Out in the Cold

Jan. 28 -- Roche Holding AG’s majority shareholder agreed to keep its stake in one pool for an unlimited period, protecting Switzerland’s largest drugmaker from a takeover at a time when industry mergers are heating up.

A shareholder pact, which was to have expired at the end of 2009, gives the descendants of founder Fritz Hoffmann-La Roche controlling voting rights, Bruno Dallo, their representative at Scobag Privatbank AG, said in a statement today. The pool owns slightly more than 50 percent of the bearer shares in the Basel- based company.

The extension of the accord will make it difficult for other drugmakers, including Novartis AG, which owns a 33 percent stake, to consider an acquisition of Roche, the world’s biggest maker of cancer medicines. Cross-town rival Novartis spent $2.1 billion in 2002 to increase its holding. Chief Executive Officer Daniel Vasella said at the time that a combination would produce “a great company.”

“Nobody really believed Novartis would be able to take- over Roche and that was confirmed today,” said Joerg De Vries- Hippen, chief investment officer of European equities at Allianz Global Investors in Frankfurt. “Besides not being able to raise that kind of money, Vasella missed his chance to persuade the Roche family years ago.”

The family’s decision comes as the Swiss drugmaker embarks on the biggest takeover in its history. The maker of the Avastin colon cancer drug is offering $43.7 billion for the 44 percent of Genentech Inc. it doesn’t own, a price the U.S. biotechnology company rejected as too low.

Revival

It also follows Pfizer Inc.’s $68 billion bid for smaller U.S. peer Wyeth two days ago, reviving drug-industry consolidation at a time when the world’s biggest pharmaceutical companies are struggling to introduce new medicines to replace top-sellers threatened by the loss of patent protection.

“After the announcement of Pfizer-Wyeth, Roche could have become a takeover target given that it has the most attractive pipeline, but this agreement calms any of those expectations down,” Dieter Buchholz, a fund manager at AIG Private Bank in Zurich, said in a telephone interview. “At the moment it just isn’t possible,” given the family’s continued majority stake.

Novartis plans to focus on organic growth though it would consider acquisition opportunities, Vasella said in a Bloomberg television interview today.

“The most important thing is organic growth and that you can produce your own pipeline,” Vasella said. “Of course, you have to proceed with your eyes wide open and look at every opportunity, but we won’t alter our strategy.”
 
Ultima modifica:
Novartis AG (NOVN VX): Switzerland’s second-largest drugmaker said first-quarter results will be “severely impacted” because of currency swings.

Continuano le notiziole decisamente non entusiasmanti per Novartis.
Il mercato piano piano sta togliendo il premio precedentemente attribuito al gigante svizzero. E' bene osservare con attenzione, ma secondo me le pere non sono ancora mature. Io la voglio circa a 90 miliardi di dollari di capitalizzazione secondo il metodo del cash flow; al netto di nuove grosse scoperte o approval dalla FDA. Underweight Target Price 34 according to SON Securities. :D

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Underweight Target Price 34 according to SON Securities. :D

A 34$ ci è andata poi.. OK!

Uscita la nuova trimestrale, l'effetto currency si fa sentire, ma ci si aspettava di peggio.

Novartis First-Quarter Profit Beats Estimates; Shares Advance

April 23 -- Novartis AG’s first-quarter profit beat analyst estimates on higher prescription-drug sales, sending the shares up the most in a month.

Net income dropped 15 percent to $1.96 billion, or 87 cents a share, hurt by the dollar’s strength against the euro and emerging-market currencies, the Basel, Switzerland-based company said in a statement today. Analysts predicted $1.89 billion, the median of seven estimates compiled by Bloomberg News.
Increased revenue from the hypertension drug Diovan and the cancer treatment Gleevec countered some of the effect from currency shifts. Chief Executive Officer Daniel Vasella confirmed the company’s forecast and said 2009 profit may fall because of the higher dollar.
“The profit was significantly better than expected, despite negative currency effects,” Karl-Heinz Koch, an analyst at Helvea SA, said in a telephone interview today. “The profit contribution from pharma especially and the generics unit Sandoz were higher than forecast, compensating for a lower performances in the consumer and vaccine divisions.”
Sales fell 2 percent to $9.71 billion. The company earned $2.32 billion, or $1.02, in last year’s first quarter, helped by a one-time gain of $115 million from a product divestment and an inventory adjustment of $45 million.
Novartis, which will lose patent protection starting in 2012 on its two biggest-selling products, Diovan and Gleevec, sees future growth fueled by sales of its Afinitor cancer pill and the Menveo meningitis vaccine. The company also is counting on expansion in emerging markets and renewed growth in the U.S. generics and over-the-counter units.

Share Rally

Novartis gained 1.62 Swiss francs, or 3.9 percent, to 43.22 Swiss francs at 9:35 a.m. in Zurich trading. The stock rose as much as 4.4 percent, the biggest intraday advance since March 12. The shares fell 18 percent in the first quarter, making it the second-worst-performing stock on the Bloomberg Europe Pharmaceutical Index.
Profit may drop this year if exchange rates remain where they are, Novartis said. The company aims to “again deliver record underlying net sales and earnings excluding currency effects,” Vasella said in the statement.
Sales at the drug unit rose 3 percent to $6.43 billion. A clutch of new products, including the hypertension drug Exforge and the cancer treatment Tasigna, added $872 million in revenue.

Vaccines, Generics

Revenue from vaccines slipped 12 percent to $247 million, mainly because of lower sales of tick-borne encephalitis shots. Sales at the generic drug unit Sandoz fell 9 percent to $1.73 billion, while consumer health lost 11 percent to $1.3 billion.
Novartis, Europe’s second-largest drugmaker, reports earnings in dollars. From the end of the 2008 first quarter through March 31 this year, the dollar gained 19 percent against the euro, reducing the value of Novartis’s sales in the euro region. The Hungarian forint, the Polish zloty, and the Russian ruble also slumped against the dollar.
Carrying costs for bonds issued in February and lower income from Novartis’s stake in Swiss rival Roche Holding AG hurt profit further, the company said. Novartis earned $83 million from eye-care company Alcon Inc. and Roche this quarter, down from $137 million a year earlier. Interest expense rose to $86 million from $57 million, the company said.
Sales from continuing operations will probably rise at a mid-single-digit percentage rate this year. Drug sales will likely grow at a mid-to-high-single-digit rate in local currencies, Novartis repeated.
 
Seguo Novartis, ma sono esposto su altri titoli per vari motivi. Uno di questi è il consolidamento del settore, Novartis non può essere preda ma solo predatore. Considerato quello che è successo alle azioni di Pfizer e Roche dopo le acquisizioni di Wyeth e Genentech non voglio essere sottoposto a questo rischio. Roche ieri ha perso 10 miliardi di capitalizzazione (soldi degli azionisti quindi) per aver calcolato male i costi-benefici dell'acquisizione di Genentech.

E mi successe una cosa del genere fabbe parecchio girare le palle :D

Visto che Novartis fra poco dovrà decidere cosa fare con il suo acquisto "a rate" di Alcon, ci vado con i piedi di piombo. Sbagliarono clamorosamente la tempisca, acquistando un pacchetto di azioni Alcon a più di 140$, ora ne vale 86$. Loro si sono assicurati di acquistare la seconda tranche a un prezzo non superiore a 181$, ma visto come si è messa la situazione il vantaggio pare averlo Nestlè, dall'altra parte del filo. Paradossalmente forse è quasi meglio prendere azioni Alcon e Novartis..Ma questo non posso dirlo con certezza..
Qui i dettagli dell'operazione, visto che si tratta di miliardi di dollari meglio dargli uno sguardo.. :)

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Parere negativo dell'autorità britannica per Afinitor

ZURICH (Dow Jones)--Le National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence au Royaume-Uni a annoncé vendredi sa décision de ne pas soutenir l'Afinitor de Novartis AG (NVS) en tant que traitement de deuxième intention contre le cancer du rein, en raison du coût encore trop élevé du produit par rapport à ses avantages.

Le géant pharmaceutique suisse, qui a déclaré qu'il ferait appel de ce verdict, a pourtant déjà abaissé le prix de ce médicament.

L'autorité sanitaire britannique a précisé qu'elle n'avait pas encore rendu d'avis définitif sur l'opportunité de rembourser l'Afinitor, mais son directeur général, Andrew Dillon, a déclaré que trop d'incertitudes entouraient encore le rapport coût/efficacité de cet anticancéreux pour qu'elle puisse le recommander.

Novartis s'est déclaré déçu de cet avis, et a indiqué qu'il ferait appel. Le groupe suisse a souligné que l'Afinitor était autorisé aux Etats-Unis et dans l'Union européenne, et remboursé dans de nombreux pays européens comme l'Allemagne, l'Espagne et la Suisse.

Selon les analystes, l'Afinitor pourrait devenir un médicament vedette avec plus de 1 milliard de dollars de chiffre d'affaires annuel.

Novartis AG Basel US66987V1098 : avis négatif de l'autorité britannique pour Afinitor, Infos / Conseils valeurs - Investir.fr
 

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CdT.ch - Svizzera - Novartis, nuovo cardio-farmaco "molto efficace"

31/08/2014 16:12

Novartis ha sviluppato un nuovo farmaco contro l'insufficienza cardiaca che potrebbe sostituire buona parte dei preparati utilizzati da un quarto di secolo in qua. È quanto risulta da uno studio presentato oggi a Barcellona durante la riunione annuale dello Società europea di cardiologia.

Il trattamento sperimentale messo a punto dal gigante farmaceutico basilese, conosciuto con la sigla LCZ696, riduce del 20% il rischio di decesso cardiovascolare e di ricovero. Ricercatori hanno giudicato "stupefacenti" simili risultati.

Alla Reuters, il direttore generale del settore pharma di Novartis, David Epstein, ha giudicato i risultati dei test migliori di "quanto avessimo mai potuto immaginare". Viste le premesse, il medicamento potrebbe diventare un nuovo "blockbuster", ossia essere in grado di generare ricavi annuali superiori al miliardo di dollari.

Stando agli analisti, le vendite di LCZ696 nel 2019 - ossia 4 anni dopo il lancio anticipato del farmaco - potrebbero salire a 1,9 miliardi dollari annui.
 
Nessuno segue più Novartis?
 
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