NXG - Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) (AMEX:NXG)....titolo aurifero
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pj prove ha scritto:
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per ora benino,,,entrato in pre,,sperem 
simulpaolo
Gold is money
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Che candelone spettacolare, max a 1,64!!
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analisi vector vest,dopo ultima trimestrale
VectorVest Stock Analysis of Northgate Minrl as of 2/25/2005
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Northgate Minrl from VectorVest. The ticker symbol for Northgate Minrl is NXG. NXG is traded on the American Stock Exchange - (A)
Analysis Summary
NXG is undervalued compared to its Price of $1.64 per share, has somewhat below average safety, and is currently rated a Buy.
In-Depth Analysis
Business: NORTHGATE EXPLORATION LTD, (NXG) Operates as a Canadian gold and copper mining company whose main assets are the 290,000 ounce per year Kemess South mine in British Columbia and the adjacent Kemess North deposit, which is the subject of a feasibility study.
Price: NXG closed on 2/25/2005 at $1.64 per share
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.
NXG has a current Value of $2.27 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $1.64 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. NXG has an RV of 1.32, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. NXG has an RS rating of 0.83, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. NXG has a Relative Timing rating of 1.22, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. NXG has a VST rating of 1.14, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. NXG has a CI rating of 1.10, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. NXG has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 20.00%, which VectorVest considers to be very good. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, (8.43%).
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. NXG has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. NXG has a Stop of $1.50 per share. This is $0.14 below NXG's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.
EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. NXG has a forecasted EPS of $0.13 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. NXG has a P/E of 12.62. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 31.89. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. NXG has an EY of 7.84 percent. This is above the current average of 3.15% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. NXG has a GPE rating of 1.57. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.43%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.29. Therefore, NXG may be considered to be undervalued.
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. NXG does not pay a dividend.
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. NXG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. NXG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. NXG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. NXG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
Open: NXG opened trading at a price of $1.52 per share on 2/25/2005.
High: NXG traded at a High price of $1.64 per share on 2/25/2005.
Low: NXG traded at a Low price of $1.51 per share on 2/25/2005
Close: NXG closed trading at price $1.64 per share on 2/25/2005. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)
Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. NXG traded with a range of $0.13 per share on 2/25/2005.
$Change: NXG closed up 0.22 from the prior day's closing Price.
%PRC: NXG's Price changed 15.49% from the prior day's closing price.
Volume: NXG traded 3,124,900 shares on 2/25/2005.
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. NXG has an AvgVol of 736,900 shares traded per day.
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals 100 x (Volume/AvgVol). NXG had a %Vol of 324.06% on 2/25/2005
Sales: NXG has annual sales of $181,000,000
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. NXG has a Sales Growth of 35.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.
Sales Per Share (SPS): NXG has annual sales of $0.91 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): NXG has a P/S of 1.81. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Shares: NXG has 200,000,000 shares of stock outstanding.
Market Capitalization: NXG has a Market Capitalization of $328,000,000. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.
Industry Group: NXG has been assigned to the Mining (Gold\Silver) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Business Sector: NXG has been assigned to the Mining Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
VectorVest Stock Analysis of Northgate Minrl as of 2/25/2005
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Northgate Minrl from VectorVest. The ticker symbol for Northgate Minrl is NXG. NXG is traded on the American Stock Exchange - (A)
Analysis Summary
NXG is undervalued compared to its Price of $1.64 per share, has somewhat below average safety, and is currently rated a Buy.
In-Depth Analysis
Business: NORTHGATE EXPLORATION LTD, (NXG) Operates as a Canadian gold and copper mining company whose main assets are the 290,000 ounce per year Kemess South mine in British Columbia and the adjacent Kemess North deposit, which is the subject of a feasibility study.
Price: NXG closed on 2/25/2005 at $1.64 per share
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth.
NXG has a current Value of $2.27 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $1.64 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge. RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. NXG has an RV of 1.32, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. NXG has an RS rating of 0.83, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. NXG has a Relative Timing rating of 1.22, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. NXG has a VST rating of 1.14, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. NXG has a CI rating of 1.10, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. NXG has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 20.00%, which VectorVest considers to be very good. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, (8.43%).
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. NXG has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. NXG has a Stop of $1.50 per share. This is $0.14 below NXG's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.
EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. NXG has a forecasted EPS of $0.13 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. NXG has a P/E of 12.62. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 31.89. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. NXG has an EY of 7.84 percent. This is above the current average of 3.15% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. NXG has a GPE rating of 1.57. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.43%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.29. Therefore, NXG may be considered to be undervalued.
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. NXG does not pay a dividend.
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. NXG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. NXG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. NXG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. NXG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
Open: NXG opened trading at a price of $1.52 per share on 2/25/2005.
High: NXG traded at a High price of $1.64 per share on 2/25/2005.
Low: NXG traded at a Low price of $1.51 per share on 2/25/2005
Close: NXG closed trading at price $1.64 per share on 2/25/2005. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)
Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. NXG traded with a range of $0.13 per share on 2/25/2005.
$Change: NXG closed up 0.22 from the prior day's closing Price.
%PRC: NXG's Price changed 15.49% from the prior day's closing price.
Volume: NXG traded 3,124,900 shares on 2/25/2005.
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. NXG has an AvgVol of 736,900 shares traded per day.
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals 100 x (Volume/AvgVol). NXG had a %Vol of 324.06% on 2/25/2005
Sales: NXG has annual sales of $181,000,000
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. NXG has a Sales Growth of 35.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.
Sales Per Share (SPS): NXG has annual sales of $0.91 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): NXG has a P/S of 1.81. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Shares: NXG has 200,000,000 shares of stock outstanding.
Market Capitalization: NXG has a Market Capitalization of $328,000,000. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.
Industry Group: NXG has been assigned to the Mining (Gold\Silver) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Business Sector: NXG has been assigned to the Mining Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
tremaui
KA MATE KA ORA!!
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X pj ........NESBITT ANCHE SE DI PARTE
07:43am EST 28-Feb-05 BMO Nesbitt Burns Int. (Mallalieu, David 416-359-7771)
For important disclosures, please see research.bmonb.com.
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
Northgate Minerals Corp. Analyst: David Mallalieu
(NGX - AMEX; NGX - TSE)
February 28, 2005 Toronto, Ontario
Q4 Results in Line with Estimates; 2005 Will Still Be Challenging
Price(2/25)& EPS (FY-Dec) P/E Mkt Div/ Rating/
52-Week Range 2003A 2004E 2005E 2004E 2005E Cap Yield Target
$2.01 $0.05 $0.16 $0.00 10.2 nm $402.9mm $0.00
Mkt
$3.43-$1.70 0.0% $2.00
Event
The company reported year-end 2004 results on February 24. Q4 earnings were
US$0.06 per share and cash flow per share was US$0.12. Net income for the
quarter was US$12.2 million and was US$31.3 million for the year. Northgate
also resolved the strike at the Kemess mine.
Impact
Neutral. We had been expecting a good quarter based on the positive operating
results that were released January 11, 2005.
Forecasts
Company forecasts for 2005 and beyond have been modified slightly to account
for changes in when revenue will be recognized on concentrate sales. The
company has been forthright in forecasting that Q1/05 and Q2/05 will have lower
gold output given the cycle of mining through a part of the Kemess South pit
that is lower grade, has a higher work index, and will necessitate greater
waste rock stripping. By Q3/05, gold production to concentrate is expected to
exceed 80,000 ounces.
Valuation
We continue to consider in our valuation that Kemess North will be developed.
The target price is generated via a 30% weighting on a 40% premium to 0%
discounted NAV, a 40% weighting on 6x 2006E P/CF, a 20% weighting on a
US$200/oz adjusted market capitalization, and a 10% weighting on a P/E of 10x
2006E.
Recommendation
We continue to rate Northgate Market Perform with a $2 target price.
Details & Analysis
Q4 Results
Northgate Minerals Corp reported Q4 earnings of US$0.06 per share, directly in
line with our estimate and the First Call Mean of US$0.06. Cash flow per share
was as expected at US$0.12 per share. Net income for the quarter was US$12.2
million and US$31.3 million for the year.
*** Graphic object removed from ascii version of document. ***
Kemess North Permitting
The company expects a formal announcement imminently on the draft agreement for
the Joint BC/Canada Panel Review of the Kemess North Project. This will start
the environmental review of the project and lay out specific timelines for
completion. Once the environmental review process commences, the company
estimates that it will take 10-12 months to complete, which would see the
process completed in early 2006, allowing a potential development decision to
be made in the second quarter of 2006. We have incorporated Kemess North into
our valuation, with a start-up of Q1/08.
Outlook
Northgate Minerals Corporation announced that it has reached a settlement with
the union at its Kemess Mine, ending the strike that began on Tuesday, February
22, 2005. The new three-year agreement provides for wage increases of 4.5%,
4.0% and 4.0% and for certain increases to the benefits package. The settlement
was reached with the help of a mediator.
The company forecasts that it will lose approximately one week of production
because of the work stoppage. While this will negatively affect Q1/05 results,
the company also indicated that a sizable amount of its production in Q4/04
(15,000 ounces of gold) will be recognized as revenue in Q1/05. This will
ameliorate some of the negative impact of the short work stoppage at the mine
and the lower grades that are expected in the first half of 2005.
Valuation
The following table illustrates the impact on the 0% discounted NAV under a
number of scenarios, namely whether or not Kemess North is developed and
changing metal prices.
*** Graphic object removed from ascii version of document. ***
Based on long-term metal prices, we are largely indifferent as to whether
Kemess North is developed or not. However, at spot metal prices, Kemess North
represents a significant positive to the company's valuation.
Conclusions
We believe that Northgate Minerals' management has assembled a superior
operational team that is extremely capable of engineering, developing and
mining the Kemess North deposit. We therefore consider the technical risk
associated with Kemess North to be relatively low and not a significant issue
in the company's valuation. However, we believe that there are two overarching
issues that will continue to act as a cap on the company's share price: 1) in
the face of a US$0.90/pound copper price and a U.S./Canadian dollar exchange
rate of 0.82:1, Kemess North generates a marginal economic return (pre-tax IRR
of 5.7%); and 2) while management has indicated that there is a relatively
direct path to acquiring the necessary permits for developing the deposit (as
being advertised by the pro-mining B.C. provincial government), we continue to
harbour doubts about whether the deposit could be developed given the current
proposal for the disposal of tailings.
If an investor takes the view that current copper prices can be maintained and
that Kemess North can be mined, this stock represents an equity that could be
significantly undervalued.
While our estimates have been modified slightly (as a result of the timing of
the recognition of concentrate sales and the movement of the potential
commencement of production from the Kemess North deposit to Q1/08), there has
been no fundamental change to our outlook for the company. We continue to rate
the equity Market Perform with a $2 target price.
First Call Corporation, a Thomson Financial company.
All rights reserved. 800.347.7822
28feb05 12:43 GMT
Symbols:
CA;NGX GB;NWFX GB;NGX0TO DE;NE6 US;NXG
5A: AM: Northgate Minerals Corp - Q4 Results in Line with Estimates (comment)pj prove ha scritto:
07:43am EST 28-Feb-05 BMO Nesbitt Burns Int. (Mallalieu, David 416-359-7771)
For important disclosures, please see research.bmonb.com.
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
Northgate Minerals Corp. Analyst: David Mallalieu
(NGX - AMEX; NGX - TSE)
February 28, 2005 Toronto, Ontario
Q4 Results in Line with Estimates; 2005 Will Still Be Challenging
Price(2/25)& EPS (FY-Dec) P/E Mkt Div/ Rating/
52-Week Range 2003A 2004E 2005E 2004E 2005E Cap Yield Target
$2.01 $0.05 $0.16 $0.00 10.2 nm $402.9mm $0.00
Mkt
$3.43-$1.70 0.0% $2.00
Event
The company reported year-end 2004 results on February 24. Q4 earnings were
US$0.06 per share and cash flow per share was US$0.12. Net income for the
quarter was US$12.2 million and was US$31.3 million for the year. Northgate
also resolved the strike at the Kemess mine.
Impact
Neutral. We had been expecting a good quarter based on the positive operating
results that were released January 11, 2005.
Forecasts
Company forecasts for 2005 and beyond have been modified slightly to account
for changes in when revenue will be recognized on concentrate sales. The
company has been forthright in forecasting that Q1/05 and Q2/05 will have lower
gold output given the cycle of mining through a part of the Kemess South pit
that is lower grade, has a higher work index, and will necessitate greater
waste rock stripping. By Q3/05, gold production to concentrate is expected to
exceed 80,000 ounces.
Valuation
We continue to consider in our valuation that Kemess North will be developed.
The target price is generated via a 30% weighting on a 40% premium to 0%
discounted NAV, a 40% weighting on 6x 2006E P/CF, a 20% weighting on a
US$200/oz adjusted market capitalization, and a 10% weighting on a P/E of 10x
2006E.
Recommendation
We continue to rate Northgate Market Perform with a $2 target price.
Details & Analysis
Q4 Results
Northgate Minerals Corp reported Q4 earnings of US$0.06 per share, directly in
line with our estimate and the First Call Mean of US$0.06. Cash flow per share
was as expected at US$0.12 per share. Net income for the quarter was US$12.2
million and US$31.3 million for the year.
*** Graphic object removed from ascii version of document. ***
Kemess North Permitting
The company expects a formal announcement imminently on the draft agreement for
the Joint BC/Canada Panel Review of the Kemess North Project. This will start
the environmental review of the project and lay out specific timelines for
completion. Once the environmental review process commences, the company
estimates that it will take 10-12 months to complete, which would see the
process completed in early 2006, allowing a potential development decision to
be made in the second quarter of 2006. We have incorporated Kemess North into
our valuation, with a start-up of Q1/08.
Outlook
Northgate Minerals Corporation announced that it has reached a settlement with
the union at its Kemess Mine, ending the strike that began on Tuesday, February
22, 2005. The new three-year agreement provides for wage increases of 4.5%,
4.0% and 4.0% and for certain increases to the benefits package. The settlement
was reached with the help of a mediator.
The company forecasts that it will lose approximately one week of production
because of the work stoppage. While this will negatively affect Q1/05 results,
the company also indicated that a sizable amount of its production in Q4/04
(15,000 ounces of gold) will be recognized as revenue in Q1/05. This will
ameliorate some of the negative impact of the short work stoppage at the mine
and the lower grades that are expected in the first half of 2005.
Valuation
The following table illustrates the impact on the 0% discounted NAV under a
number of scenarios, namely whether or not Kemess North is developed and
changing metal prices.
*** Graphic object removed from ascii version of document. ***
Based on long-term metal prices, we are largely indifferent as to whether
Kemess North is developed or not. However, at spot metal prices, Kemess North
represents a significant positive to the company's valuation.
Conclusions
We believe that Northgate Minerals' management has assembled a superior
operational team that is extremely capable of engineering, developing and
mining the Kemess North deposit. We therefore consider the technical risk
associated with Kemess North to be relatively low and not a significant issue
in the company's valuation. However, we believe that there are two overarching
issues that will continue to act as a cap on the company's share price: 1) in
the face of a US$0.90/pound copper price and a U.S./Canadian dollar exchange
rate of 0.82:1, Kemess North generates a marginal economic return (pre-tax IRR
of 5.7%); and 2) while management has indicated that there is a relatively
direct path to acquiring the necessary permits for developing the deposit (as
being advertised by the pro-mining B.C. provincial government), we continue to
harbour doubts about whether the deposit could be developed given the current
proposal for the disposal of tailings.
If an investor takes the view that current copper prices can be maintained and
that Kemess North can be mined, this stock represents an equity that could be
significantly undervalued.
While our estimates have been modified slightly (as a result of the timing of
the recognition of concentrate sales and the movement of the potential
commencement of production from the Kemess North deposit to Q1/08), there has
been no fundamental change to our outlook for the company. We continue to rate
the equity Market Perform with a $2 target price.
First Call Corporation, a Thomson Financial company.
All rights reserved. 800.347.7822
28feb05 12:43 GMT
Symbols:
CA;NGX GB;NWFX GB;NGX0TO DE;NE6 US;NXG
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Paolino967
L'AQUILA
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professionale come sempre
ciao max,,,,!!!!!
ciao max,,,,!!!!!
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Paolino967 ha scritto:professionale come sempre
ciao max,,,,!!!!!
olaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa,,,paolo,,,,,ma che pofressionale,,,capzoooooooooooo,,,,,,,,pensa ,,ho dovuto vendere tre titoli che salivano,,,,,,perche ho problemi con pc,,un virus del capzo,,e linea adsl,,,azzz,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
li ho venduti perke non smettevano di salire
paolo,,,,hai terminato l esodo in olanda
?????
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qualcuno può gentilmente spiegarmi in sintesi il senso di questa notizia? non sono abbastanza sicuro di averne colto il significato tecnico....grazie.
Press Release Source: Northgate Minerals Corporation
Northgate Dramatically Reduces Gold Hedge Position
Wednesday May 11, 7:25 pm ET
Goal is to be Hedge Free Within One Year
VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 11, 2005--Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX - News; AMEX:NXG - News) is pleased to announce that in expectation of higher future gold prices, it has accelerated the reduction of its gold hedge position and reduced its outstanding gold forward sales position by 99,000 ounces since April 1, 2005. This accelerated de-hedging is part of an overall corporate strategy that would see Northgate become debt-free and hedge-free within one year. Northgate's gold hedge position now stands at 140,250 ounces representing approximately 12% of Kemess South mine production over the next four years and less than 4% Northgate's total recoverable reserves.
ADVERTISEMENT
Northgate invites all its shareholders to attend the Corporation's Annual General Meeting, which will take place on Thursday, May 12, 2005 (tomorrow) at 10:00 am at the TSX Conference Center located on the main floor of the Exchange Tower at 130 King Street West Toronto, Ontario. For those shareholders who are unable to attend in person, the meeting is being Webcast and management's presentation will be available on Northgate's web site at www.northgateminerals.com and will be archived for future reference.
Webcast:
To view the webcast, go to www.northgateminerals.com and follow the link on the home page that says "webcast". Before viewing the webcast, please ensure that your system meets the Minimum System Requirements and that you have installed Windows Media Player. If you do not have high-speed internet access, please download the PDF version of our Management Presentation and follow along with the audio broadcast.
Northgate Minerals Corporation is a gold and copper mining company focused on operations and opportunities in the Americas. The Corporation's principal assets are the 300,000-ounce per year Kemess mine in north-central British Columbia and the adjacent Kemess North deposit, which contains a Proven and Probable Reserve of 4.1 million ounces of gold. Northgate is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol NGX and on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol NXG.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release includes certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements include estimates, forecasts, and statements as to management's expectations with respect to, among other things, future metal production and production costs, potential mineralization and reserves, exploration results, progress in the development of mineral properties, demand and market outlook for commodities and future plans and objectives of Northgate Minerals Corporation (Northgate). Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "expect", "intend", "estimate", "anticipate", "believe", or "continue" or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by management are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from Northgate's expectations are disclosed under the heading "Risk and Uncertainties" in Northgate's 2004 Annual Report and under the heading "Risk Factors" in Northgate's 2004 Annual Information Form (AIF) both of which are filed with Canadian regulators on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov). Northgate expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX - News; AMEX:NXG - News)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Northgate Minerals Corporation
Mr. Ken G. Stowe
President and Chief Executive Officer
(416) 216-2772
OR
Northgate Minerals Corporation
Mr. Jon A. Douglas
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
(416) 216-2774
www.northgateminerals.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Northgate Minerals Corporation
Press Release Source: Northgate Minerals Corporation
Northgate Dramatically Reduces Gold Hedge Position
Wednesday May 11, 7:25 pm ET
Goal is to be Hedge Free Within One Year
VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 11, 2005--Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX - News; AMEX:NXG - News) is pleased to announce that in expectation of higher future gold prices, it has accelerated the reduction of its gold hedge position and reduced its outstanding gold forward sales position by 99,000 ounces since April 1, 2005. This accelerated de-hedging is part of an overall corporate strategy that would see Northgate become debt-free and hedge-free within one year. Northgate's gold hedge position now stands at 140,250 ounces representing approximately 12% of Kemess South mine production over the next four years and less than 4% Northgate's total recoverable reserves.
ADVERTISEMENT
Northgate invites all its shareholders to attend the Corporation's Annual General Meeting, which will take place on Thursday, May 12, 2005 (tomorrow) at 10:00 am at the TSX Conference Center located on the main floor of the Exchange Tower at 130 King Street West Toronto, Ontario. For those shareholders who are unable to attend in person, the meeting is being Webcast and management's presentation will be available on Northgate's web site at www.northgateminerals.com and will be archived for future reference.
Webcast:
To view the webcast, go to www.northgateminerals.com and follow the link on the home page that says "webcast". Before viewing the webcast, please ensure that your system meets the Minimum System Requirements and that you have installed Windows Media Player. If you do not have high-speed internet access, please download the PDF version of our Management Presentation and follow along with the audio broadcast.
Northgate Minerals Corporation is a gold and copper mining company focused on operations and opportunities in the Americas. The Corporation's principal assets are the 300,000-ounce per year Kemess mine in north-central British Columbia and the adjacent Kemess North deposit, which contains a Proven and Probable Reserve of 4.1 million ounces of gold. Northgate is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol NGX and on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol NXG.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release includes certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward-looking statements include estimates, forecasts, and statements as to management's expectations with respect to, among other things, future metal production and production costs, potential mineralization and reserves, exploration results, progress in the development of mineral properties, demand and market outlook for commodities and future plans and objectives of Northgate Minerals Corporation (Northgate). Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "expect", "intend", "estimate", "anticipate", "believe", or "continue" or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by management are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from Northgate's expectations are disclosed under the heading "Risk and Uncertainties" in Northgate's 2004 Annual Report and under the heading "Risk Factors" in Northgate's 2004 Annual Information Form (AIF) both of which are filed with Canadian regulators on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov). Northgate expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX - News; AMEX:NXG - News)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Northgate Minerals Corporation
Mr. Ken G. Stowe
President and Chief Executive Officer
(416) 216-2772
OR
Northgate Minerals Corporation
Mr. Jon A. Douglas
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
(416) 216-2774
www.northgateminerals.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Northgate Minerals Corporation
le miniere si dividono in hedged e unhedged. Le prime fissano a termine il prezzo dell'oro, le seconde no. Quindi le seconde subiscono oscillazioni maggiori degli utili quando l'oro scende o sale: rispetto alle hedged, il prezzo dell'azione generalmente scende o sale con una volatilita' piu' alta.
Se prevedi che il prezzo dell'oro e' destinato a salire tendi a diminuire l'hedging sul prezzo (come ha intenzione di fare la tua azienda) in questo modo alzi il livello di rischio ma se ci hai visto giusto, guadagni di piu'.
Oppure se sei un investitore, a comprare titoli unhedged.
Se non erro l'HUI e' l'indice che raccoglie le aziende che vendono unhedged, e infatti e' piu' volatile dello XAU.
Se prevedi che il prezzo dell'oro e' destinato a salire tendi a diminuire l'hedging sul prezzo (come ha intenzione di fare la tua azienda) in questo modo alzi il livello di rischio ma se ci hai visto giusto, guadagni di piu'.
Oppure se sei un investitore, a comprare titoli unhedged.
Se non erro l'HUI e' l'indice che raccoglie le aziende che vendono unhedged, e infatti e' piu' volatile dello XAU.
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Flex ha scritto:
Grazie Flex...
ti disturbo ancora un'ultima volta...
Dove posso trovare le liste delle stocks hedged/unhedged separate appunto per categoria...o quanto meno come posso determinare le singole percentuali perseguite da un'azienda? (immagino che per molte ci siano situazioni miste ...) grazie ancora, ciao.