Pmu
- Creatore Discussione miris
- Data di inizio
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Trasparente
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bravissimo...
altolivello
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bravo miris,,,capzo non ricordavo piu' il nome oggi di questo titolo,,
mi sto proprio rinkollionendo,,,,capzo,,,
mi sto proprio rinkollionendo,,,,capzo,,,
Trasparente
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ritardata di 20 min..
..era proprio lineare...
...col senno di poi
..era proprio lineare...
...col senno di poi
superbaffone
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Gooooooooooooooo
superbaffone
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una bella news di oggi
+DJ Pacific Rim Sells Andacollo Mine In Deal Valued In Excess Of $5M
04/01/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
04-01-04 0916ET
DJ Pacific Rim Sells Andacollo Mine To MCK Mining >PMU
VANCOUVER (Dow Jones)--Pacific Rim Mining Corp. (PMU) has finalized a letter of intent to sell its Compania Minera Dayton unit to MCK Mining Corp. (MMC.V) of Vancouver, subject to due diligence, regulatory approval and completion of a formal final agreement.
In a press release, Pacific Rim said CMD's primary holding is the Andacollo gold mine in Chile, which was shut down in December 2000 by Pacific Rim's predecessor company, Dayton Mining Corp.
Under the terms of the agreement, MCK Mining will pay $5 million and issue 4 million common shares to Pacific Rim through the end of 2007. Pacific Rim said due diligence is expected to be completed by May 31.
The company called the Andacollo property a non-core holding and said it will use proceedsd to continue advancement of its El Dorado gold project in El Salvador, for exploration of its other gold projects and the acquisition of new high-quality gold properties."
+DJ Pacific Rim Sells Andacollo Mine In Deal Valued In Excess Of $5M
04/01/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
04-01-04 0916ET
DJ Pacific Rim Sells Andacollo Mine To MCK Mining >PMU
VANCOUVER (Dow Jones)--Pacific Rim Mining Corp. (PMU) has finalized a letter of intent to sell its Compania Minera Dayton unit to MCK Mining Corp. (MMC.V) of Vancouver, subject to due diligence, regulatory approval and completion of a formal final agreement.
In a press release, Pacific Rim said CMD's primary holding is the Andacollo gold mine in Chile, which was shut down in December 2000 by Pacific Rim's predecessor company, Dayton Mining Corp.
Under the terms of the agreement, MCK Mining will pay $5 million and issue 4 million common shares to Pacific Rim through the end of 2007. Pacific Rim said due diligence is expected to be completed by May 31.
The company called the Andacollo property a non-core holding and said it will use proceedsd to continue advancement of its El Dorado gold project in El Salvador, for exploration of its other gold projects and the acquisition of new high-quality gold properties."
superbaffone
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vediamo se rimbalza anche se non è ancora il momento dell'oro
altolivello
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dentro a 0,62,,,,
altolivello
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e allora??
pare che regga,,,,che ne dite???
pare che regga,,,,che ne dite???
altolivello
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Scritto da WorldLove
Sono entrato ora anche io a 0,65.... ho l'impressione che abbia trovato una sua base....
... se penso che solo pochi mesi fa quotava 1,70....
in effetti e' rimbalzata,,,sui 60 cent,,,
e poi credo che proprio ora il prezzo e' buono,,,
vediamo che accade,,,,,,
WorldLove
Attenzione !!!
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Deflation Unavoidable?
Chris Laird
With the giant increases in M3 money, ones first impression is that the FED will just inflate right out of any possibility of deflation. But what if that is not possible?
What if the FED has already passed the threshold of controllability, having encountered an irresistible sink hole of economic activity. Supposedly, the with a combination of low interest rates and high liquidity, the FED can INDUCE the economic demand at will... to a point.
It appears we are reaching that point. Merely leaving interest rates low just pulls demand from the future into the now. If that process continues too long, the consumer reaches a point of debt capitulation, by simply borrowing too much, and being capped from any further borrowing by either spending all his discretionary money on debt service, or having rising interest rates cap any further debt service for him.
It turns out that there is a growth indicator which shows when such a debt maximum is being reached. Here, we'll look at the magic 12 to 17 % debt growth figure, which indicates when the household debt is maxing out. Then well look at the implications of a coming debt deflation which is probably around the corner.
Do we have a measurement (metric) of historical rate of debt growth to determine when that point is reached? Yes we do, and it correlates with recessions. It appears we have a metric that qualifies as a debt based bubble metric. The conclusions of this bubble metric is that the real estate bubble is presently pushing against its historical max debt growth rate. That rate is 12 to 17 %.
For real estate, rising interest rates caps demand by removing further liquidity from the economy, by preventing the NEXT guy from buying the previous guy's house for example. If he can't get a new buyer, pretty soon he is stressing financially, and has to lower the asking price. Having to lower asking prices will end a real estate bubble.
Included in this essay is data I'm introducing here indicates we will have a collapsed real estate bubble beginning perhaps in 2005. Whether that cascades into a deflationary depression will remain to be shown.
This capping of future demand based on the household is what could cause a real deflation in the US. Deflation is defined as less money pursuing goods. Inflation is defined as more money chasing goods. This economy is flirting or already past the point of no return with a deflationary sinkhole, ie a deflationary destruction of debt money. In fact, I'll argue that is beyond the FED's control. And the rate of sustainable increase of household debt is being reached NOW.
Before I get into the details lets look at a little movie analogy…
I remember the movie the Great Race, one of my all time favorite movies.
Professor Fate is competing with the elegant Leslie, for glory. Each one does some brave publicity stunt to get into the public eye. Any way, poor Professor Fate, in his latest scheme, has created a rocket sled on a railroad track. With his trusty assistant beside him in the cockpit, he lights the rocket, and they take off....
assistant "100!"
Fate "HA HA!!"
assistant: "150!"
Fate "LOOK AT IT! ITS GOING!!!!"
assistant "250!"
"NO ONE HAS DONE THIS BEFORE!!, HAHAHAHAH!!!!"
While they are rejoicing, they don't notice the sled has taken off going up into the air, flying. The next thing they notice is birds flying along with them.
They look at each other in shock, and turn back to stare at the still burning rocket...knowing what is coming.
The rocket keeps burning for a few seconds, and then it flames out.
BUT BREIFLY THEY KEEP GOING UP. Their end is predictable, as they are following a parabolic curve now, DOWN.
I submit the US economy is on a rocket that is just now flaming out, but it will keep going up for a brief while on its own momentum.
After that, there will be a parabolic destruction of debt money instruments that accelerates faster than the FED will be able to inflate the M3 or whatever other form of money they come up with. The idea that the FED can inflate their way out of deflation only works as long as the creation of new money IN THE HANDS OF THE CONSUMER outpaces the destruction of money in the form of real estate loan defaults, derivative defaults, and destruction of other gigantic forms of money in the US economy.
Lets look at some figures…For the US, total mortgage debt grew from about $5 trillion in Mar 97 to over $9 trillion in '03. An increase of almost 100% GSE assets grew from $800 billion in Dec 96 to 2.4 trillion in Dec 02, An increase of 200%.
For this year, savings deposits are up 258 billion a whopping +18.5% annualized. Real estate loans are up 167 billion, ytd or +17% annualized.
This is parabolic growth. And +17 percent is a magic number.
What goes up must come down
Lets take a look at these stats. For this year, saving deposits has grown at a 18.5% rate, while new real estate loans has increased 17% annualized. I think people are cashing out their real estate gains. Why are they now cashing in their real estate gains? Because we are now flirting with 17 percent debt growth rates. Historically this 17% rate has capped debt growth in the US and correlated with recessions. That 17 % number also correlated with a high inflation environment, in 1979.
Lets look at some historical household debt growth rates from the FED.
Debt growth by sector as a percent, US households (Footnote 2)
Year, Total, Mortgage, Consumer
1969 7.7 7.0 8.3
1970 4.4 4.4 3.4
1971 9.2 8.5 11.7
1972 11.3 11.2 13.1
1973 12.4 11.7 13.3 recession coming
1974 8.8 9.7 4.6
1975 8.2 9.1 3.8
1976 11.2 12.4 10.6
1977 15.5 16.5 15.5
1978 16.9 17.5 17.5 recession coming
1979 15.2 16.2 13.9 inflation sustaining debt growth levels at 15 %
1980 8.5 11.0 1.0
1981 7.6 7.2 5.5
1982 5.6 4.7 5.0
1983 11.2 10.3 12.1
1984 12.6 11.3 18.4
1985 15.8 14.0 15.9 recession coming
1986 11.4 13.6 9.1
1987 10.4 13.4 4.8
1988 9.8 11.7 6.7
1989 9.3 11.0 6.3
1990 7.0 8.9 1.9
1991 5.2 7.0 -1.1
1992 5.3 6.5 1.1
1993 5.9 5.5 7.4
1994 7.6 5.6 15.2
1995 7.1 4.9 14.4
1996 6.8 6.3 8.9
1997 5.8 6.3 4.9
1998 7.9 8.2 7.3
1999 8.2 9.1 7.8
2000 8.8 8.4 10.7 stock market bubble controlled decline
2001 9.0 9.9 8.0
2002 9.7 12.0 4.4
2003 10.4 12.7 4.9 *** ?????? recession coming, real estate bubble imminent end?
In 2004 real estate loans are up 167 billion YTD or 17% annualized!
Between the years of 1997 and 2004 mortgage debt has doubled. Rising interest rates must shorten the REMAINING time for the end of this cycle ending with debt growth rates hitting the magic 12 to 17 % growth rate.
DEBT DEFLATION
Now we have two effects of reaching the limit of debt growth: loss of liquidity equates to loss of equity very rapidly in real estate. The moment people realize that real estate is peaked, there will be a rapid decline in prices. Lets see the implications of this on the money in the US in M3, but in things like equity in houses (and its effect on debt money)
Parabolic debt destruction???
The indebtedness this time around for Federal, household, and all other sectors of the economy is so great that this next decline probably will result in debt deflation. The resulting destruction of debt money may increase at a rate FASTER THAN THE FED CAN OR WILL BE ABLE TO CREATE NEW MONEY.
For example, if we take 9 trillion of outstanding mortgage debt and say only 5 percent per year goes into default, that equates to 450 billion of destroyed debt money. Maybe the FED could create that much money in that time, but there have to be solvent borrowers to create new demand with the money. In a debt deflation, there are fewer and fewer credit worthy borrowers.
This debt destruction and resultant massive deflationary force could put pressure on things like our delightful new derivatives instruments, a new thing since about 1990…
Imagine the resultant deflationary forces if, instead of calculating a 5 % default rate for a measly 9 trillion of US mortgage debt, doing that calc on say 100 or 200 trillion of derivative debt and speculation instruments?? The FED could be faced with having to create not hundreds of billions of new money, but perhaps trillions, even tens of trillions. AND it has to get that money into the hands of qualified borrowers for it to have any traction. In a massive deflationary environment, that is almost impossible. I don't think this can happen this time. Juts too much debt is out there that will create a debt deflation never seen before. It will probably go world wide too, following the US dollar into other economies. Actually, I think right now we don't have any separate national economies any more. We have a gigantic debt ridden world economy that will see a debt deflation come because the FED cant create enough money to replace the coming destroyed US debt money world wide.
So, I believe we are looking at coming debt deflation for the reasons outlined above. We are either at the critical 17% debt growth number for household debt , or are rapidly approaching it, with a diminishing amount of time left because interest rates are increasing, and shortening the remaining period of the debt growth cycle. I'll hazard a guess this will occur in 2005. I could do a lot more work on the data from the FED in footnote 2, but I'll suffice this for now.
21 June 2004
Chris Laird
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/laird062004.html
Chris Laird
With the giant increases in M3 money, ones first impression is that the FED will just inflate right out of any possibility of deflation. But what if that is not possible?
What if the FED has already passed the threshold of controllability, having encountered an irresistible sink hole of economic activity. Supposedly, the with a combination of low interest rates and high liquidity, the FED can INDUCE the economic demand at will... to a point.
It appears we are reaching that point. Merely leaving interest rates low just pulls demand from the future into the now. If that process continues too long, the consumer reaches a point of debt capitulation, by simply borrowing too much, and being capped from any further borrowing by either spending all his discretionary money on debt service, or having rising interest rates cap any further debt service for him.
It turns out that there is a growth indicator which shows when such a debt maximum is being reached. Here, we'll look at the magic 12 to 17 % debt growth figure, which indicates when the household debt is maxing out. Then well look at the implications of a coming debt deflation which is probably around the corner.
Do we have a measurement (metric) of historical rate of debt growth to determine when that point is reached? Yes we do, and it correlates with recessions. It appears we have a metric that qualifies as a debt based bubble metric. The conclusions of this bubble metric is that the real estate bubble is presently pushing against its historical max debt growth rate. That rate is 12 to 17 %.
For real estate, rising interest rates caps demand by removing further liquidity from the economy, by preventing the NEXT guy from buying the previous guy's house for example. If he can't get a new buyer, pretty soon he is stressing financially, and has to lower the asking price. Having to lower asking prices will end a real estate bubble.
Included in this essay is data I'm introducing here indicates we will have a collapsed real estate bubble beginning perhaps in 2005. Whether that cascades into a deflationary depression will remain to be shown.
This capping of future demand based on the household is what could cause a real deflation in the US. Deflation is defined as less money pursuing goods. Inflation is defined as more money chasing goods. This economy is flirting or already past the point of no return with a deflationary sinkhole, ie a deflationary destruction of debt money. In fact, I'll argue that is beyond the FED's control. And the rate of sustainable increase of household debt is being reached NOW.
Before I get into the details lets look at a little movie analogy…
I remember the movie the Great Race, one of my all time favorite movies.
Professor Fate is competing with the elegant Leslie, for glory. Each one does some brave publicity stunt to get into the public eye. Any way, poor Professor Fate, in his latest scheme, has created a rocket sled on a railroad track. With his trusty assistant beside him in the cockpit, he lights the rocket, and they take off....
assistant "100!"
Fate "HA HA!!"
assistant: "150!"
Fate "LOOK AT IT! ITS GOING!!!!"
assistant "250!"
"NO ONE HAS DONE THIS BEFORE!!, HAHAHAHAH!!!!"
While they are rejoicing, they don't notice the sled has taken off going up into the air, flying. The next thing they notice is birds flying along with them.
They look at each other in shock, and turn back to stare at the still burning rocket...knowing what is coming.
The rocket keeps burning for a few seconds, and then it flames out.
BUT BREIFLY THEY KEEP GOING UP. Their end is predictable, as they are following a parabolic curve now, DOWN.
I submit the US economy is on a rocket that is just now flaming out, but it will keep going up for a brief while on its own momentum.
After that, there will be a parabolic destruction of debt money instruments that accelerates faster than the FED will be able to inflate the M3 or whatever other form of money they come up with. The idea that the FED can inflate their way out of deflation only works as long as the creation of new money IN THE HANDS OF THE CONSUMER outpaces the destruction of money in the form of real estate loan defaults, derivative defaults, and destruction of other gigantic forms of money in the US economy.
Lets look at some figures…For the US, total mortgage debt grew from about $5 trillion in Mar 97 to over $9 trillion in '03. An increase of almost 100% GSE assets grew from $800 billion in Dec 96 to 2.4 trillion in Dec 02, An increase of 200%.
For this year, savings deposits are up 258 billion a whopping +18.5% annualized. Real estate loans are up 167 billion, ytd or +17% annualized.
This is parabolic growth. And +17 percent is a magic number.
What goes up must come down
Lets take a look at these stats. For this year, saving deposits has grown at a 18.5% rate, while new real estate loans has increased 17% annualized. I think people are cashing out their real estate gains. Why are they now cashing in their real estate gains? Because we are now flirting with 17 percent debt growth rates. Historically this 17% rate has capped debt growth in the US and correlated with recessions. That 17 % number also correlated with a high inflation environment, in 1979.
Lets look at some historical household debt growth rates from the FED.
Debt growth by sector as a percent, US households (Footnote 2)
Year, Total, Mortgage, Consumer
1969 7.7 7.0 8.3
1970 4.4 4.4 3.4
1971 9.2 8.5 11.7
1972 11.3 11.2 13.1
1973 12.4 11.7 13.3 recession coming
1974 8.8 9.7 4.6
1975 8.2 9.1 3.8
1976 11.2 12.4 10.6
1977 15.5 16.5 15.5
1978 16.9 17.5 17.5 recession coming
1979 15.2 16.2 13.9 inflation sustaining debt growth levels at 15 %
1980 8.5 11.0 1.0
1981 7.6 7.2 5.5
1982 5.6 4.7 5.0
1983 11.2 10.3 12.1
1984 12.6 11.3 18.4
1985 15.8 14.0 15.9 recession coming
1986 11.4 13.6 9.1
1987 10.4 13.4 4.8
1988 9.8 11.7 6.7
1989 9.3 11.0 6.3
1990 7.0 8.9 1.9
1991 5.2 7.0 -1.1
1992 5.3 6.5 1.1
1993 5.9 5.5 7.4
1994 7.6 5.6 15.2
1995 7.1 4.9 14.4
1996 6.8 6.3 8.9
1997 5.8 6.3 4.9
1998 7.9 8.2 7.3
1999 8.2 9.1 7.8
2000 8.8 8.4 10.7 stock market bubble controlled decline
2001 9.0 9.9 8.0
2002 9.7 12.0 4.4
2003 10.4 12.7 4.9 *** ?????? recession coming, real estate bubble imminent end?
In 2004 real estate loans are up 167 billion YTD or 17% annualized!
Between the years of 1997 and 2004 mortgage debt has doubled. Rising interest rates must shorten the REMAINING time for the end of this cycle ending with debt growth rates hitting the magic 12 to 17 % growth rate.
DEBT DEFLATION
Now we have two effects of reaching the limit of debt growth: loss of liquidity equates to loss of equity very rapidly in real estate. The moment people realize that real estate is peaked, there will be a rapid decline in prices. Lets see the implications of this on the money in the US in M3, but in things like equity in houses (and its effect on debt money)
Parabolic debt destruction???
The indebtedness this time around for Federal, household, and all other sectors of the economy is so great that this next decline probably will result in debt deflation. The resulting destruction of debt money may increase at a rate FASTER THAN THE FED CAN OR WILL BE ABLE TO CREATE NEW MONEY.
For example, if we take 9 trillion of outstanding mortgage debt and say only 5 percent per year goes into default, that equates to 450 billion of destroyed debt money. Maybe the FED could create that much money in that time, but there have to be solvent borrowers to create new demand with the money. In a debt deflation, there are fewer and fewer credit worthy borrowers.
This debt destruction and resultant massive deflationary force could put pressure on things like our delightful new derivatives instruments, a new thing since about 1990…
Imagine the resultant deflationary forces if, instead of calculating a 5 % default rate for a measly 9 trillion of US mortgage debt, doing that calc on say 100 or 200 trillion of derivative debt and speculation instruments?? The FED could be faced with having to create not hundreds of billions of new money, but perhaps trillions, even tens of trillions. AND it has to get that money into the hands of qualified borrowers for it to have any traction. In a massive deflationary environment, that is almost impossible. I don't think this can happen this time. Juts too much debt is out there that will create a debt deflation never seen before. It will probably go world wide too, following the US dollar into other economies. Actually, I think right now we don't have any separate national economies any more. We have a gigantic debt ridden world economy that will see a debt deflation come because the FED cant create enough money to replace the coming destroyed US debt money world wide.
So, I believe we are looking at coming debt deflation for the reasons outlined above. We are either at the critical 17% debt growth number for household debt , or are rapidly approaching it, with a diminishing amount of time left because interest rates are increasing, and shortening the remaining period of the debt growth cycle. I'll hazard a guess this will occur in 2005. I could do a lot more work on the data from the FED in footnote 2, but I'll suffice this for now.
21 June 2004
Chris Laird
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/laird062004.html
superbaffone
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segue la ribassista di precisione non un buon segno per ora, elliott direbbe di aspettare, aspettiamo.