S&P 500 sopravvalutato ?

Uh! Ma chi scrive qui ? Questa e' gente che ci capisce...
 
il ROS dello S&P500 ai massimi di sempre (tra l'altro anche Montier tempo fa parlava della grande espansione dei margini della corporate america dovuta principalmente ai bassi tassi sul debito: http://goo.gl/D1z5GK)
 

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com'è cambiato il Dow Jones:
Dow Jones Interactive Timeline - CNNMoney

non ci può che citare:

"Of the fifty most important stocks on the NYSE in 1911, today only one, General Electric, remains in business. . . . That’s how powerful the forces of competitive destruction are. Over the very long term, history shows that the chances of any business surviving in a manner agreeable to a company’s owners are slim at best."

Charlie Munger
 
Lo so che adesso mi sputtano alla grande e da domani faccio crollare tutto, comunque uno dei 2 investimenti che non ho ancora liquidato (violentando me stesso) è proprio un ETF long con leva sullo S&P 500. Penso ci sia ancora margine di crescita.

Il P/E attuale è circa 18 e i dividendi sono al 2%. Confrontandoli con i rendimenti dei T - Bond ad 1 anno e a 2 l'azionario è ancora molto in vantaggio secondo i miei gusti.

Nel 2001 e nel 2008 i rendimenti ad 1 anno dei T - Bond erano intorno al 5% a fronte di P/E relativamente alti.

La caduta ci sarebbe in caso o di un qualche shock capace di far scendere in maniera forte e generalizzata gli utili oppure in caso di un investimento alternativo migliore in grado di assorbire la stessa mole di liquidità (per quest'ultimo scenario occhio al rafforzamento del dollaro).

Chi vota su e chi vota giu? :specchio: :D
 
Magari è nel giusto... :sperem:

Jeremy Siegel – The Market is 10% to 15% Undervalued

I think fair market value for the stocks today is 10% to 15% higher, and that might even be on the conservative side.

As I mentioned last year, when you are in a low-to-moderate interest-rate environment, the average price-earnings ratio for stocks is 18 to 19. If you use reported earnings, which I think are too conservative in terms of their predictive value, we’re at 16.7 times next year’s estimate of forward earnings. That’s slightly above the long-term median but it’s below the average. In a low-to-moderate interest-rate environment, the average is 18- to 19-times earnings.

One factor yielding higher margins is that we have very low leverage among corporations today. They have $1.5 trillion in cash on their balance sheets. This leads to higher margins because corporations don’t have to spend that much on interest expense.

Today, 80% of corporate liabilities are long-term debt. In 1996, which was the last time that we were not in a recession and were at average margin levels, only 50% of corporate debt was long-term. Firms have now locked in these low interest rates on longer-term debt. Even if interest rates rise, their exposure is relatively small. And if rates rise, they’re going to start getting some interest on their $1.5 trillion of cash. Corporations have locked in their long-term debt, while their assets are short-term. I don’t think they will be hurt much by any rise in interest rates.

I wrote a paper last summer, “The CAPE Ratio: A New Look.” I presented it at a Q-Group conference in October. Bob Shiller and I debated it the day after he won the Nobel Prize. (Because of all the media coverage he appeared by videoconference rather than in person.)

The bottom line of the paper is I have a lot of problems with the CAPE predictions using S&P data, but not with the CAPE methodology. The CAPE methodology is brilliant and works. The data are the problem. I showed that the S&P 500 earnings data over the last 15 to 20 years, particularly in recessions, have been much different that prior to that, primarily due to the change in accounting conventions and the forced write-downs of assets. When I looked back at the historical data, S&P earnings compared to the business cycle, it was like night and day. You are not dealing with the same series.

I used the corporate profits from the National Income and Products Account (NIPA) data and plugged them in. Guess what? The Shiller overvaluation almost completely disappeared. And the cyclical behavior of the NIPA data is very consistent with the business cycle over the last 85 years.

When you normalize for the data, the market is not overvalued by much at all. Because Shiller’s CAPE is based on the average of the last 10 years, the crash in earnings during those recessions really pumped up the CAPE ratio, and that is a major, major reason for today’s over-valuation.

http://advisorperspectives.com/news...he_Market_is_10_to_15_percent_Undervalued.pdf
 
Goldman turns bearish on US equities - FT.com


Goldman Sachs has taken a bearish turn. David Kostin, the investment bank’s chief US equity strategist, spent much of a presentation to international clients on Monday showing how many measures demonstrated the S&P 500 was overvalued, and by just how much. He put a 67 per cent probability on a correction of at least 10 per cent this year. And he pointed out how stretched sentiment was.

Il senso dell'articolo, come si capisce meglio dal video, è che lo S&P500 appare sopravvalutato anche usando una metrica, come quella del rapporto tra prezzi e forward earnings, che in genere serve a giustificare una posizione bullish sul mercato.
 
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Che il mercato USA sia piu caro di quello Thailandesi ci sta tutto, no ?
Voi a parita di P/E dove investireste ?

La correzione prevista da GS e' arrivata. Pero all'insu'
 
Infatti Faber ha detto abbastanza onestamente che cercava una scusa per non uscire a fare ginnastica, e diciamo che qui non si è sforzato troppo ...

Quello di cui cerchiamo di discutere qui è sulla sopravvalutazione del mercato USA in se', rispetto al suo andamento nel passato. E' chiaro che un posto nel mondo che costa meno si trova sempre
 
e adesso ci si mette anche Seth Klarman ...

Any year in which the S&P 500 jumps 32 per cent and the Nasdaq 40 per cent while corporate earnings barely increase should be a cause for concern, not for further exuberance,” ... “On almost any metric, the US equity market is historically quite expensive. A sceptic would have to be blind not to see bubbles inflating in junk bond issuance, credit quality, and yields, not to mention the nosebleed stock market valuations of fashionable companies like Netflix and Tesla Motors,

Seth Klarman warns of impending asset price bubble - FT.com
 
Una voce in disaccordo:

Despite claims that the equity market is in a bubble, it is low beta stocks and not high beta stocks that are selling at rich valuations. High beta stocks are actually close to record conservative relative valuations.
....
While there is no doubt that investors’ fears regarding equities after the 2008 bear market have started to subside, this is a normal occurrence for a mid-cycle environment. The euphoria that is typically present at market peaks has yet to occur.
There are indeed financial bubbles around the world. Credit growth in China would be a perfect example. However, we strongly doubt that US equities should be added to that list.


http://rba-llc.com/templates/dmd/images/pdfs/equity_bubble_no.pdf

L'autore Richard Bernstein, ex Merrill Lynch, ha scritto due libri interessanti sul mercato azionario

Style Investing: Unique Insight Into Equity Management (Frontiers in Finance Series): Richard Bernstein: 9780471035701: Amazon.com: Books
Amazon.com: Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype eBook: Richard Bernstein: Books
 
e adesso ci si mette anche Seth Klarman ...

Any year in which the S&P 500 jumps 32 per cent and the Nasdaq 40 per cent while corporate earnings barely increase should be a cause for concern, not for further exuberance,” ... “On almost any metric, the US equity market is historically quite expensive. A sceptic would have to be blind not to see bubbles inflating in junk bond issuance, credit quality, and yields, not to mention the nosebleed stock market valuations of fashionable companies like Netflix and Tesla Motors,

Seth Klarman warns of impending asset price bubble - FT.com

Cioe ha detto di tutto un po'. I jumps del 32% a partire da quale livello ?
Il bubble degli yields dove sta ? Sono bassissimi!
E naturalmente la prova provata sono Netflix e Tesla, cioe una compagnia che capitalizza attorno all' 1, 2 per mille del mercato ed un altra che nemmeno e' inclusa nell' S&P500…
 
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