Soft Commodities

  • Due nuove obbligazioni Societe Generale, in Euro e in Dollaro USA

    Societe Generale porta sul segmento Bond-X (EuroTLX) di Borsa Italiana due obbligazioni, una in EUR e una in USD, a tasso fisso decrescente con durata massima di 15 anni e possibilità di rimborso anticipato annuale a discrezione dell’Emittente.

    Per continuare a leggere visita questo LINK

simulpaolo

Gold is money
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Gentili amici,


chiedo di collaborare alla ricerca di titoli (ovviamente non sopravvalutati) operanti nel settore delle soft commodities (grano, granoturco, soia, mais ecc....) in quanto queste ultime mi pare viaggino davvero su quotazioni molto depresse relativamente al Crb index.
Inoltre sarei interessato anche a produttori di legname.




Grazie,Paolo
 
Guarda...non so se avro' tempo di farlo magari Sab o Dom pero' sei una delle persone piu' "giuste" del forum...Perche' non ti fossilizzi su un singolo titolo, ma mantieni sempre la mente "aperta"....sempre a caccia di valori e occasioni..
 
Allora diciamo che questo è il momento di sfruttare a pieno il rally del petrolio e dei metalli cavalcando titolini esplosivi ma nel frattempo lavoriamo per il dopo a selezionare ed accumulare se possibile titoli delle soft commodity.
In particolare e dimenticavo anche i suini e bovini sono piuttosto depressi ma su questo apriro' un thread a parte perche' ci sono buone occasioni.



paolo
 
simulpaolo ha scritto:
Allora diciamo che questo è il momento di sfruttare a pieno il rally del petrolio e dei metalli cavalcando titolini esplosivi ma nel frattempo lavoriamo per il dopo a selezionare ed accumulare se possibile titoli delle soft commodity.
In particolare e dimenticavo anche i suini e bovini sono piuttosto depressi ma su questo apriro' un thread a parte perche' ci sono buone occasioni.



paolo
ok mi piace la pancetta di maiale ...........
 
The 2005 Year in Commodities Review & 2006 Outlook

Softs

http://moundreport.com/featuredarti...e35-December- Year in Commodities Review.html
(qui trovate anche i grafici)
un po vecchiotto ma interessante

Orange juice has seen a doubling of price in under a year and a half as hurricane destruction in Florida along with Cankor fungus has devastated the once largest producer of orange juice in the world. Brazil production is questionable as well and overall this market is not only bullish but in a new dimension of trading. Not only are traders concerned about traditional frost season worries, but now they have a whole hurricane season to fear. About 2/3rds of the year the market is in weather panic – this is no small shift in trading mentality. This will likely force the market to maintain substantial premium throughout those seasonal periods. I am a buyer on any price dips below $1.

Coffee developed a short supply squeeze rally earlier this year, as what some insiders saw as a global third world collusion effort. The last several months found a true lack of price trending and technically offered several support and resistance points to develop a level of consolidation that screams bull breakout in ’06. You can’t ignore the historical relevance of the last two and only two times coffee prices have been below $.50/lb. Both times we saw a quadrupling of price before the run was over, and this time we are seeing the market meander around a $1 and taking far more time to accomplish the same feat. The reason this is so significant is that extremes in markets that have third world supply cycles tend to offer opposite extremes because growers tend to over-exaggerate the supply to compensate for those price shifts. This time around there is a changing dynamic. No longer is South America the producer of coffee it once was. The #2 is now Vietnam and Thailand and Mexico are fast becoming major influences in the coffee supply world. This global shift makes the cyclical changeover that should have brought about the extreme rally not so extreme. Overall the market remains bullish, but that cyclical pattern that brought a bunch of spec players like myself into the game is not there anymore.

***Chart Courtesy of Moore Research Center, Inc.

Cocoa should have had an expansive year in 2005 in both price and volatility, but found itself range bound for much of the year. When the Ivory Coast, that produces about 2/3rds of the world’s supply, was overtaken by France, went through election mishaps and was exposed to multiple coup attempts, you would have thought a cocoa rally was a foregone conclusion. Now, as the market surges to end the year, we may finally see a price breakout and a big year ahead in cocoa. Calls remain inexpensive despite price levels and volatility expansion around the corner.

***Chart Courtesy of Gecko Software’s TracknTrade.

The cotton market spent ’05 in a depressed mode, unable to establish a true bottom and also lacking the momentum to rally. This market is technically in need of a major breakdown to establish a low and cyclical turn that will force production to reverse and the supply situation to force a rally. This is a couple of years out and the market, in the meantime, will likely find itself attempting to set fresh lows. Fundamentally this market suffers from an abundance of supply and only weather will bail this market out of this situation. Look to buy inexpensive put options and avoid selling call premium as exposure to the upside is not worth the pitiful premiums given the dying volatility.

Sugar was perhaps the biggest underdog story of 2005 as it surged to levels not seen in over a decade, making this market nearly triple its price of just 2 years ago. Jim Rogers and George Bush should be thanked for their contribution as the energy crisis has brought many speculators to sugar because of its ability to be used in the production of ethanol. Nevertheless South America, and in particular Brazil have shifted its production efforts to sugar to benefit from the expanding price. Sugar production is cheap, easy and plentiful. This rally was based on part fear, part long term reality and part good PR that a demand surge was in the making. Sugar is at a critical price level. Sugar has not been above 16 & ½ cents in almost 25 years, and offered three critical tops just above 15 cents during that time. This market should be aggressively shorted by buying inexpensive leveraged deep OTM put options with a ton of time on them – look at July 12 cent puts for $300. If the market breaks thoroughly through 16 & ½ cents then the skies the limit, but otherwise this is a fairly predictable top in a market that is extremely overbought and overdue for a correction.

***Chart Courtesy of Moore Research Center, Inc.

Lumber remains in the middle of long term support and resistance bands and lacks a fundamental or technical directional trend worth looking at. I would look to be a seller near 400, a buyer near 240 and avoid anywhere in the middle. The housing market is not the focal point of lumber prices as much as it used to be, as new home construction is dwindling and the focus turns more to the natural disaster issues that is fast becoming the focal point of many commodity markets. Look to be a seasonal buyer of lumber in May if prices get below 300.
 
simulpaolo ha scritto:
Gentili amici,


chiedo di collaborare alla ricerca di titoli (ovviamente non sopravvalutati) operanti nel settore delle soft commodities (grano, granoturco, soia, mais ecc....) in quanto queste ultime mi pare viaggino davvero su quotazioni molto depresse relativamente al Crb index.
Inoltre sarei interessato anche a produttori di legname.




Grazie,Paolo

ciao Paolo
secondo me kompass potrebbe essere un buon punto di partenza
http://it100.kompass.com/search.php..._Keyword=nanotubi&_Zone=WW&_Lang=it&_Choix=PS

oppure conosci altre directory settoriali?

sono disponibile a mettermi al lavoro.... se credi posso fare una prima scrematura su parametri da te forniti...
ciao
 
simulpaolo ha scritto:
Gentili amici,


chiedo di collaborare alla ricerca di titoli (ovviamente non sopravvalutati) operanti nel settore delle soft commodities (grano, granoturco, soia, mais ecc....) in quanto queste ultime mi pare viaggino davvero su quotazioni molto depresse relativamente al Crb index.
Inoltre sarei interessato anche a produttori di legname.




Grazie,Paolo

Puoi dare qualche indicazione sui principali parametri fondamentali che preferiresti avessero questi titoli? ciao.
 
ma secondo voi questo elenco di aziende quotate nel legname tratto da yahoo finance è esaustivo o solo parziale?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/632_cl_pub.html


Advanced Environmental Recycling Technologies, Inc. [AERTA]
AmeraMex International Inc. [AMMX.PK]
American Woodmark Corporation [AMWD]
Deltic Timber Corporation [DEL]
Koppers Holdings Inc. [KOP]
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation [LPX]
MASISA S.A. [MYS]
Pope Resources, A Delaware Limited Partnership [POPEZ]
Universal Forest Products, Inc. [UFPI]
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. [WFTBF.PK]
Weyerhaeuser Company [WY]
 
sto cominciando a fare lo sreening. Non esiste infatti un vero bull trend del crb con eccessiva sottoperformance delle soft commodity. la regola vuole che prima o poi queste debbano allinearsi nei limiti del possibile alle altre.
Al di la' dei singoli titoli che pure mi appresto a selezionare vorrei segnalarvi un etf di sole materie prime (certificati) che è possibile acquistare almeno con fineco, la cui composizione è 50% agricole, 30% animali, 20% metalli.
E' quotato a Francoforte ed è emesso dalla goldman.



Paolo
 
Buffett: "I don't think there's a bubble in agricultural commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans. But in metals and oil there's been a terrific [price] move. It's like most trends: At the beginning, it's driven by fundamentals, then speculation takes over. As the old saying goes, what the wise man does in the beginning, fools do in the end. With any asset class that has a big move, first the fundamentals attract speculation, then the speculation becomes dominant.
 
Sta per uscire anche un ETF Lyxor con una bella esposizione sulle soft commodities (anche se non esclusiva, ci sono pure oro, metalli e oil).
 
non sarebbe il caso di dare una spolverata a questo 3d?
 
Indietro