Tecnologia USA

Why Microsoft’s Heads Count - WSJ

For Microsoft , the trick these days is growing the cloud—without getting itself too puffed up. The first objective has been progressing well. When Microsoft reports fiscal fourth quarter results on Thursday afternoon, its cloud businesses should remain a big growth driver—especially in a period of weaker sales of personal computers. The company’s Intelligent Cloud segment is expected to boost revenue by 9% year over year, according to FactSet. The Productivity and Business Processes segment, which contains important cloud services like Office 360, Dynamics and the newly acquired LinkedIn, is expected to grow revenue by 20%.
The second point has been more of a challenge. The acquisition of LinkedIn last year added more than 10,000 full-time employees to Microsoft’s payroll. That brought the company’s total head count to more than 121,000—not quite the record, as the ill-advised pickup of Nokia in 2014 pushed the size of the workforce to more than 128,000. Microsoft has been working since then to bring that number down without substantial job cuts because growing its cloud business requires talent, and not the cheap kind. So investors shouldn’t expect Microsoft to get much smaller, despite new layoffs numbering “in the thousands” reported earlier this month. An internal email from the company billed the move as an effort to “align the right resources for the right customer at the right time.” And it should be noted that Microsoft’s efficiency hasn’t been a big problem to date. Even with the head count boost this year, Microsoft’s annual revenue per employee still ranks well above that of many of its big tech peers. Still, Microsoft has to mind its spending. Shifting to the cloud has trimmed the high gross margins of its legacy software business. That isn’t a burden shared by its main cloud rivals Amazon and Google-parent Alphabet Inc. Wall Street is expecting Microsoft’s adjusted operating margin to make gradual improvements over the next two fiscal years after remaining flat around 30% for the last three. Expensive clouds need to show a silver lining.

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L'asticella di IBM è sempre molto bassa; quando si materializzeranno gli usi di Watson ci sarà spazio per una decisa espansione dei multipli.

IBM: The Bar Is Set Too Low - International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) | Seeking Alpha
IBM: fatturato in calo per il 21° trimestre consecutivo
-3,25% nel pre-mercato di Wall Street per International Business Machines. La società ha annunciato che, per il 21° trimestre consecutivo, il periodo aprile-giugno si è chiuso con vendite in calo. Il fatturato è arretrato del 5% a 19,3 miliardi di dollari mentre l’utile netto ha segnato un -7% a 2,3 miliardi.
Il risultato per azione in versione “adjusted” si è attestato a 2,97 dollari, rispetto ai 2,74 del consenso, mentre le vendite erano state stimate a 19,5 miliardi.

Ecco a voi i risultati della ginny; su 22 trimestri al comando siamo al 21 esimo negativo di fila.KO!KO!KO!KO!KO!KO!
Ginny sei una forza, :wall::wall::wall:stai riuscendo in quello che non era riuscito nemmeno ad Akers.

Per fortuna ne sono uscito per tempo, sia come dipendente che come azionista.
 
Ultima modifica:
IBM: fatturato in calo per il 21° trimestre consecutivo
-3,25% nel pre-mercato di Wall Street per International Business Machines. La società ha annunciato che, per il 21° trimestre consecutivo, il periodo aprile-giugno si è chiuso con vendite in calo. Il fatturato è arretrato del 5% a 19,3 miliardi di dollari mentre l’utile netto ha segnato un -7% a 2,3 miliardi.
Il risultato per azione in versione “adjusted” si è attestato a 2,97 dollari, rispetto ai 2,74 del consenso, mentre le vendite erano state stimate a 19,5 miliardi.

Ecco a voi i risultati della ginny; su 22 trimestri al comando siamo al 21 esimo negativo di fila.KO!KO!KO!KO!KO!KO!
Ginny sei una forza, :wall::wall::wall:stai riuscendo in quello che non era riuscito nemmeno ad OPEL.

Per fortuna ne sono uscito per tempo, sia come dipendente che come azionista.

Ti capisco, persino Warren Buffett ha perso la pazienza con IBM.

Io mantengo, sono in leggero gain; non ti nascondo però che in passato ho fatto una grande sciocchezza liquidando Google e mantenendo IBM.

Purtroppo negli investimenti questo vcapita.

Comunque ritengo sempre che IBM stia prezzando uno scenario pessimo, se dovessero esserci sorprese positive dagli imperativi e ci fossero quindi un aumento anche lieve degli utili ed un riapprezzamento dei multipli.... potremmo vedere i 250 USD.
Il problema è che per "farmi contento" i due "SE" dovrebbero avvenire contemporaneamente e ben prima del 2025 !!!!
 
nel mio piccolo, dopo aver appreso la notizia di Buffett e IBM, anche io ho considerato l'ipotesi di disfarmi di IBM, magari a favore di AAPL
 
quando la ex manager diventa competitor:
Cisco’s Feud With Former Star Executive Turns Personal—and Costly - WSJ

In a packed headquarters ballroom, Cisco Systems Inc.’s then-chief executive officer John Chambers offered a fond farewell to a star executive and friend, Jayshree Ullal. He celebrated her ability to make complicated things simple and wished her success in her next role. He didn’t expect that much success. Within months of the 2008 party, Ms. Ullal became CEO of Arista Networks Inc., a small startup that has since snagged Cisco customers including Microsoft Corp. and Facebook Inc., and is eating into the share of the networking giant’s most important business. Mr. Chambers couldn’t stand to lose sales, especially to someone he considered family, and the rivalry has become personal, according to people close to both executives. Defeating Arista has become a priority for Cisco, a company more than 40 times bigger by annual revenue. In 2013, Ms. Ullal’s image appeared in an internal Cisco presentation pasted onto a bull’s-eye pierced with arrows. “Arm the field, stop the bleeding and fire back,” according to the presentation. Now, the fighting is unfolding in court, where Cisco, once the world’s most valuable company, has accused Arista of stealing its technology. Arista has denied the allegations, saying the Silicon Valley giant sued only because it lacked smart ideas to regain business. Each side has notched incremental wins over the past two and half years with no sign of a resolution.
By the time Mr. Chambers handed over the CEO position to Chuck Robbins in 2015, Cisco had been through its fifth consecutive year of layoffs, various restructuring and other cost cuts. It’s struggling to regain the market share captured by Arista and other competitors, particularly in Cisco’s crucial switching business, which links together computers on corporate networks. Mr. Robbins said Cisco is now repositioning itself to build products with more automation and security. “Because we see companies that get disrupted, you can disappear in a hurry in today’s world,” he said in a recent interview. In June, Cisco promoted a new line of automated and programmable switches. Mr. Robbins told a gathering of 28,000 partners and customers the company was on a journey “to change everything.” His predecessor, Mr. Chambers, has said he made mistakes during his tenure as CEO. Cisco, he said in court testimony, was too slow to react to a fast-changing market. He declined to be interviewed for this article, as did Ms. Ullal. On Wednesday, Cisco reported that revenue fell for a seventh straight quarter. This account of how a Cisco insider became one of its fiercest foes is based on interviews with current and former executives of Cisco and Arista, court testimony and records, and unpublished corporate documents and emails reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Chambers, 67, now Cisco’s executive chairman, is credited with the company’s extraordinary growth phase in the 1990s, largely by buying smaller companies, including Crescendo Communications where Ms. Ullal worked. Ms. Ullal, who rose to become one of Cisco’s most valuable executives over her 15 years at the company, ran the switching division, which allows companies to shuttle data at high speeds. By the time she left, switching was Cisco’s biggest business, with more than $10 billion in annual revenue, a big reason why Cisco recovered from the dot-com bust. Mr. Chambers and Ms. Ullal made a strong team, partly because they’re both extremely competitive, according to former executives who worked with them. Their priorities and styles sometimes clashed. Mr. Chambers, a soft-spoken West Virginian, was a managerial guru and a salesman whose gracious manner skewed more senatorial than Silicon Valley. Ms. Ullal, raised in India, was an outspoken engineering and marketing whiz who disliked rigid rules. Ms. Ullal grew frustrated as Cisco began moving beyond its core switching and routing business into areas such as high-end videoconferencing and consumer electronics, former executives who worked with her said. About a year before she left, Mr. Chambers had created dozens of internal councils and boards, which was at odds with her command-and-control approach. Cisco’s engineering team knew Ms. Ullal’s departure would be bad news, say former co-workers. Arista was a better fit. The Santa Clara, Calif., startup, founded in 2004 by former Cisco executives, was small and entrepreneurial. When Ms. Ullal joined as CEO in 2008, it had shipped its first product, an unusually fast networking switch for Wall Street trading networks. The market was worth only about $50 million but it gave Arista a foothold. It was also a segment of the market Cisco hadn’t prioritized. Ms. Ullal urged her employees to avoid attracting Cisco’s attention at first, said a person familiar with her thinking. As the giant in the field, Cisco could have “destroyed us with a stray thought,” this person said. In public, Arista said it planned to focus on narrow markets such as high-frequency trading. Privately it was working on building a flexible and easy-to-program switch that could be sold to large internet companies that were Cisco customers. Mr. Chambers didn’t see his protégé as a threat until two years later, when it was too late. In 2010, Arista was on the verge of winning about $2 million of business from Microsoft, one of Cisco’s biggest customers, according to a March 2011 briefing document for Mr. Chambers and his own court testimony. The amount was small, but to Cisco it was a “canary in the coal mine,” the briefing document said. The Arista product was faster at moving data than Cisco’s hardware, and cost less, according to internal Cisco documents. Cisco feared that Arista could end up with as much as $100 million in future annual sales to Microsoft. Cisco was already concerned about losing business after missing its annual revenue estimate for the first time in eight years. Microsoft remains a big Cisco customer. But for the past six years, Microsoft has been Arista’s largest customer, accounting for 16% of its total revenue last year, or $181 million. Mr. Chambers felt betrayed by Ms. Ullal, a former Cisco executive said. “To John, it was a relationship question—‘Why would you do such a thing?’ ”
He told executives to keep Arista from winning any new business from Cisco customers, according to former executives. Mr. Chambers also sent a 1,500-word memo to employees in April 2011 saying Cisco was too slow to make decisions and lacked discipline. That month, the sales team created a “Tiger Team” to track Arista’s every move, thwart its marketing efforts and forestall its initial public offering plan, according to internal presentations and emails. As many as 70 salespeople and engineers participated in “war room” calls where no detail was too small. In 2012, Mr. Chambers asked four top Cisco engineers who had created some of its past hit products to secretly start a new company to compete directly with Arista’s offerings. Cisco invested $135 million in the company, Insieme Networks, and later bought it. Arista’s technology was faster, more flexible and less expensive than Cisco’s, according to customers and internal sales documents. Facebook engineers described Cisco as “behind the curve and on target to become irrelevant” in the data center, according to a Cisco engineer’s email to executives in March 2013. Facebook, now a customer of both Arista and Cisco, declined to comment. A Cisco employee presented the slide deck with Ms. Ullal’s photo on a bull’s-eye a few months later, calling for “zero loss tolerance against Arista.” Other customers started complaining. An email from a customer support engineer in August 2013 to dozens of senior managers, including Mr. Robbins, the future CEO, said Morgan Stanley had lost confidence in one of the switching products “after more than 12 months of ongoing software defects, instability and a lack of needed features.” The bank halted plans to use 400 Cisco switches and said it might turn to Arista. Morgan Stanley declined to comment. Cisco interviewed dozens of executives to understand the problem. The brutal conclusion in a September 2013 report: Cisco had good ideas and talented employees but a risk-averse culture, indecisive leaders and too big a focus on incremental products. In November, Ms. Ullal ran into Mr. Chambers at a cocktail party in San Francisco, according to a person familiar with the encounter. The two hugged, and then Mr. Chambers joked to the former CEO of a big Cisco customer that his onetime treasured executive had become his toughest competitor. “Don’t buy from her,” he said. Ms. Ullal was irritated by the exchange and told her staff that Cisco’s gloves were coming off, according to the person. Inside Cisco, a “Beat Arista” document in January 2014 warned that the impending IPO would provide the upstart the cash to strike Cisco’s most profitable product lines. “Time is now to target their top 100 accounts—slow momentum, impact revenue & market share and help drive an unsatisfactory IPO,” one slide said. About six months later, Arista had an initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange. Its shares jumped 35% on the first day of trading, making Ms. Ullal’s 7% stake worth about $260 million, and climbed another 40% by November. In December 2014, Mr. Chambers approved two lawsuits against Arista with the blessing of his operating committee. He struggled with the decision. “It is hard to accuse people who are your friends—and they are still my friends—of stealing from you,” Mr. Chambers said in court testimony. “But this was so blatant.” The lawsuits filed in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California accused Arista of copying technology, infringing on 14 patents and taking copyrighted material. Arista says the suits have no merit. “I’m disappointed at Cisco’s tactics—this is not the Cisco I knew,” Ms. Ullal told reporters at the time. She later wrote on Arista’s blog that older companies are “often in denial of new technologies and market disruptions until it’s too late.” Arista prevailed over Cisco in a trial late last year over copyright claims and one patent claim in one of the lawsuits. The other lawsuit is on hold pending related investigations being conducted by the International Trade Commission at Cisco’s request. The ITC found that Arista infringed on three of the patents in dispute, leading it to redesign some products this year. But the company is appealing a ban by the agency on the import and sales of products in the U.S. related to two other patents. Cisco, with a market value of $160 billion, remains the leader in the networking business, but the much smaller Arista is chipping away at the fastest-growing part of the switching business. Arista’s share of the overall data-center switching market has grown from nothing in 2010 to over 9% in 2016, while Cisco’s share has fallen from about 80% to about 58%, according to research firm International Data Corp. Mr. Chambers and Ms. Ullal did not see each other again until last month at a wedding, according to a person familiar with the meeting. They embraced, chatted for several minutes—though not about work—and appeared in a photo together. Then they went their separate ways.

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La cosa ulteriormente interessante è che non ci ha messo 10 anni per andare dal top al bottom... ma molti meno.
Questo fatto testimonia che in questi nostri tempi è sempre più difficile tenere un'investimento a vita. un po' la vecchia logica di Buffett.
quantomeno nei settori (ma sono sempre di più) ad alto tasso di innovazioni. ma innovazioni non necessariamente tecnologiche ma anche di marketing etc.
Quindi i famosi 'fossati' sono sempre più piccoli. E questo richiede a noi maggiore sforzo di studio, approfondimento, analisi. Insomma anche se si azzecca il timing di ingresso su aziende fantastiche non si può più dormirci sopra a lungo pensando che l'investimento cresca per conto proprio.

Saluti
 
quanto ci mangia pure:
Why Apple Rival Samsung Also Wins If iPhone X Is a Hit - WSJ

When the iPhone X goes on sale next month, Apple Inc.’s rival, Samsung Electronics Co., has good reason to hope it is a roaring success. The South Korean company’s giant components division stands to make $110 from for each top-of-the-line, $1,000 iPhone X that Apple sells. The fact reflects a love-hate dynamic between the phone makers that is one of the more unusual relationships in business. While each company vies to get consumers to buy its gadgets, Samsung’s parts operation stands to make billions of dollars supplying screens and memory chips for the new iPhone—parts that Apple relies on for its most important product. “These are two of the largest companies on the planet deeply tied at the hip and directly competitive,” said David Yoffie, a professor at Harvard Business School, who has studied Apple and serves on Intel Corp.’s board. “That makes this stand out compared with almost any relationship you can think of.” An analysis conducted by Counterpoint Technology Market Research for The Wall Street Journal finds Samsung is likely to earn roughly $4 billion more in revenue from iPhone X parts than from components made for the Galaxy S8 in the 20 months after the new iPhones go on sale Nov. 3. The majority of sales for a new smartphone occur in the first 20 months after its debut. Apple and Samsung are expected to be the world’s two most-profitable companies in 2017, excluding Chinese banks, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. And they will depend on each other to get there. Apple needs Samsung’s parts to make the iPhones that accounted for two-thirds of the Cupertino, Calif., company’s $215.64 billion in revenue in fiscal 2016, according to investment bank CLSA.
Samsung needs Apple’s orders to fuel a component business that delivered about 35% of the South Korean firm’s total revenue of about $195 billion last year and more than half of its $25.6 billion annual operating profit. Samsung and Apple declined to comment. Business rivals sometimes depend on each other. LG Electronics Inc., for example, produced its own home appliances while simultaneously working with General Electric Co. Major oil companies Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Exxon Mobil Corp. compete for drilling rights in some markets and collaborate in others. But the complex relationship between Apple and Samsung is unique. Their close association started more than a decade ago. Lee Jae-yong—the grandson of Samsung’s founder—personally negotiated with Apple founder Steve Jobs to provide flash memory for iPods, according to people familiar with the matter. The relationship grew after Apple moved into selling smartphones. Apple’s immense demand for parts—it sells more than 200 million iPhones a year—limits the field of possible suppliers. Samsung is one of a handful of semiconductor makers that can make a small chip crammed with extra memory capacity. And it is the only significant manufacturer of the organic light-emitting diode, or OLED, displays Apple has adopted to create the iPhone X screen. At meetings, Samsung executives are known to tell attendees who pull out iPhones: “It’s OK. They’re our best client,” according to people familiar with the matter.
Samsung employees often refer to Apple with code names. One of the most popular is “LO,” short for “Lovely Opponent,” people familiar with the matter said. Apple’s descriptor for Samsung, meanwhile, is Samsung, according to people with knowledge of the situation. Employees at the iPhone maker are often critical of its rival’s devices, pointing out software and hardware flaws behind closed doors. The relationship took an acrimonious turn in 2011, when Apple sued Samsung over alleged patent infringement, accusing the Galaxy S of ripping off the iPhone’s design. Samsung countersued Apple with its own patent-infringement allegations. Steve Jobs called it a “thermonuclear” legal war. Six years on, the U.S. lawsuit is unresolved. A federal appeals court is set to determine this month whether a new jury trial is necessary to resolve a case in which Samsung is challenging a nearly $400 million award to Apple for design patent-infringement damages. Samsung Electronics is run by three chief executives, a separation the company has said creates a sufficient firewall between the smartphone and components units. The smartphone unit buys parts from the components division, operating like they were two separate businesses. Apple will look to reduce its supply-chain reliance on Samsung, according to industry analysts, and is working to diversify OLED production by 2019 at the latest. Apple has encouraged others to build out OLED production operations, according to people familiar with its efforts, including Sharp Corp. and Japan Display Inc. It is supporting Bain Capital’s bid for Toshiba Corp.’s memory-chip business, which would give it an alternative supplier in that market. But for now, the two remain close. Apple and Samsung vacuum up nearly 95% of the smartphone industry’s profits, according to market researcher Strategy Analytics. They can plow those earnings into research-and-development and marketing, giving them an edge over smaller smartphone players, said Neil Mawston of Strategy Analytics. Apple also can use its size to buy up components, making it tougher for others to get the supplies they need. “Sleeping with the enemy,” said CW Chung, a Seoul-based analyst at Nomura, “might be a better strategy for them than hating each other.”

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onestamente non capisco se è un'opportunità... amd cresce intanto...
Mi piaceva intel e siamo proprio sul livello di mio buy, ma sono tentato dall'astenermi

Queste situazioni possono essere grosse opportunità o l'inizio della fine :D
Ma credo che Intel si riprenderà una volta passata la bufera.
Certo che è un bel colpo per l'immagine ed il CEO che vende 24 milioni di azioni un mese prima non aiuta..
 
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