Tenaris ..."la cavalla"...31

Go-Gain

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visto che l'ultimo mio aperto ha portato fortuna eccomi qui
 
Go-Gain ha scritto:
visto che l'ultimo mio aperto ha portato fortuna eccomi qui
ops :angry: mi sono scordato di inserire il titolo mannagggia!!!!
 
Allora light sweet a 71,36
 
Go-Gain ha scritto:
visto che l'ultimo mio aperto ha portato fortuna eccomi qui

Aspetta un attimo, ci sono i soliti ritardatari.
Metà mese.

Se scendesse un pochettino....................
 
Molto bene, vedo che con il serale ci siamo messi in tasca un altro bello 0,50% :D
 
eccoci........ ;) ;)
 
voglio la Tenarisaaaaaaaa
voglio la Tenarissaaaaaaaaaa
voglio la Tenarissaaaaaaaaaa

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
 
bix75 ha scritto:
eccoci........ ;) ;)



ciao Paolo ;)

ripropongo un paio di post scritti dal maggior esperto di Tenaris su yahoofinance:


Fake rally?
by: fp_scientist
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 05/26/06 02:58 pm
Msg: 2528 of 2540

Fake rally? I don't think so.

Long weekend ahead, means modest volumes yesterday & today. Everyone who wanted out, is out. Yet this morning TS made 1.2 million shares in the first hour. That is not a fake really. That is a professional money taking positions and leaving the office early today.

Shoulder season is over, IMO. TS has been trading with the energy stocks for a while. The sell off and rebound followed the oil service stocks. Check OIH (energy holders) or individual stocks like SLB or BTU and compare their charts with TS. They are identical. This sell off was not a company driven event. It was a sector and market event.

Very soon, the market will start focusing on hurricane and driving season. Demand for oil is firm. Supply of crude light very tight. What the saudis can offer, very few want to refine. Drilling, especially in harsh environments and/or deepwater is booming. Two companies own the high-end market: Tenaris & Vallourec. Prices per ton in this sector are 3x regular steel or more. Thus the margins and ebitda. Who is drilling like crazy to keep up with demand? The Saudis. Who is the main semaless provider to Saudi-Aramco? Tenaris.

Compared to peers in the energy service sector, TS still trades at a discount. The discount is not as dramatic as it was 2 years ago but it is still significant compared to HAL, WFT, SLB, or BHI.

TS has come a long way. Yes, it is a 10-bagger since the IPO 3 years ago. But after this sell off, the stock is attractive again. Bought back my full position at 32.60 and low 34s in the last few days plus the 1/3 position I kept (but hedged selling covered calls and long the 40 May puts). I posted about all these trades.

Besides the technicals (oversold, Fib retracement, etc), this stock has great fundamentals. Two news this week had me buying with confidence: GDP is fine and inflation under control. The economy is healthy and chugging along. Will re-evaluate as we go along but the only one thing that can/may bust this energy bull (and TS with it) is a big R (as in RECESSION) coming, and I don't see it in the manufacturing sector... yet. Yes, the US consumer will slow down and the housing market needs to adjust, but TS ia a global company (actually they cannot sell OCTG in the US), so there will be bumps but mark this post, we put a bottom this week.

Have a good Memorial weekend y'all,
fp

Disclaimer: as usual, these are my opinions. Do your own dd and invest at your own risk.

Re: Relative Value - US -
by: fp_scientist 05/29/06 12:16 am
Msg: 2536 of 2540

Most of the companies you mention (MVK, LSS, and NSS) are focused on the low-end segment (octg, welded & seamless) and the north-american market.

Grant-Prideco (GRP) is a better comparison: higher-end product, deep water, global reach... yet GRP is valued 30-50% higher than TS on most measures. GRP P/S is 4.0 vs TS 3.0. GRP has a trailing P/E of 24.5 vs TS 15.5.

A better peer-group outside tubular and within the oil-services sector would be SLB, BHI, RIG, WFT, and NOV. Why? Because like TS, these companies have global reach, great technology, and are market leaders in their respective niches. TS is still undervalued from a market-cap/EBITDA perspective when you compare it with this other peer group.

TS will keep reconverting their low end into higher end product, and this means earnings growth.

Check the last presentation at the TS website: http://www.tenaris.com/en/Investors/files/IPMay06eng.pdf

Check slide #3 for a comparison with the peer group above.

To understand why the market is willing to pay more for TS compared to LSS, NSS, or MVK, check slide #14 (tons of high-end and premium seamless per well complexity). Then, check slide #17 (high-end production) and slide #18 for margin growth in seamless.

The message is very clear.

When TS came to market 3.5 years ago, it was pretty much valued as a regular steel company. The nay-sayers said it would never be valued as on oil-services company. I think we are half way there and still have plenty of room to go.

fp
 
fabri69 ha scritto:
ciao Paolo ;)

ripropongo un paio di post scritti dal maggior esperto di Tenaris su yahoofinance:


Fake rally?
by: fp_scientist
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 05/26/06 02:58 pm
Msg: 2528 of 2540

Fake rally? I don't think so.

Long weekend ahead, means modest volumes yesterday & today. Everyone who wanted out, is out. Yet this morning TS made 1.2 million shares in the first hour. That is not a fake really. That is a professional money taking positions and leaving the office early today.

Shoulder season is over, IMO. TS has been trading with the energy stocks for a while. The sell off and rebound followed the oil service stocks. Check OIH (energy holders) or individual stocks like SLB or BTU and compare their charts with TS. They are identical. This sell off was not a company driven event. It was a sector and market event.

Very soon, the market will start focusing on hurricane and driving season. Demand for oil is firm. Supply of crude light very tight. What the saudis can offer, very few want to refine. Drilling, especially in harsh environments and/or deepwater is booming. Two companies own the high-end market: Tenaris & Vallourec. Prices per ton in this sector are 3x regular steel or more. Thus the margins and ebitda. Who is drilling like crazy to keep up with demand? The Saudis. Who is the main semaless provider to Saudi-Aramco? Tenaris.

Compared to peers in the energy service sector, TS still trades at a discount. The discount is not as dramatic as it was 2 years ago but it is still significant compared to HAL, WFT, SLB, or BHI.

TS has come a long way. Yes, it is a 10-bagger since the IPO 3 years ago. But after this sell off, the stock is attractive again. Bought back my full position at 32.60 and low 34s in the last few days plus the 1/3 position I kept (but hedged selling covered calls and long the 40 May puts). I posted about all these trades.

Besides the technicals (oversold, Fib retracement, etc), this stock has great fundamentals. Two news this week had me buying with confidence: GDP is fine and inflation under control. The economy is healthy and chugging along. Will re-evaluate as we go along but the only one thing that can/may bust this energy bull (and TS with it) is a big R (as in RECESSION) coming, and I don't see it in the manufacturing sector... yet. Yes, the US consumer will slow down and the housing market needs to adjust, but TS ia a global company (actually they cannot sell OCTG in the US), so there will be bumps but mark this post, we put a bottom this week.

Have a good Memorial weekend y'all,
fp

Disclaimer: as usual, these are my opinions. Do your own dd and invest at your own risk.

Re: Relative Value - US -
by: fp_scientist 05/29/06 12:16 am
Msg: 2536 of 2540

Most of the companies you mention (MVK, LSS, and NSS) are focused on the low-end segment (octg, welded & seamless) and the north-american market.

Grant-Prideco (GRP) is a better comparison: higher-end product, deep water, global reach... yet GRP is valued 30-50% higher than TS on most measures. GRP P/S is 4.0 vs TS 3.0. GRP has a trailing P/E of 24.5 vs TS 15.5.

A better peer-group outside tubular and within the oil-services sector would be SLB, BHI, RIG, WFT, and NOV. Why? Because like TS, these companies have global reach, great technology, and are market leaders in their respective niches. TS is still undervalued from a market-cap/EBITDA perspective when you compare it with this other peer group.

TS will keep reconverting their low end into higher end product, and this means earnings growth.

Check the last presentation at the TS website: http://www.tenaris.com/en/Investors/files/IPMay06eng.pdf

Check slide #3 for a comparison with the peer group above.

To understand why the market is willing to pay more for TS compared to LSS, NSS, or MVK, check slide #14 (tons of high-end and premium seamless per well complexity). Then, check slide #17 (high-end production) and slide #18 for margin growth in seamless.

The message is very clear.

When TS came to market 3.5 years ago, it was pretty much valued as a regular steel company. The nay-sayers said it would never be valued as on oil-services company. I think we are half way there and still have plenty of room to go.

fp


altro che websim, eh Fabri?? .......... :D :D
 
bix75 ha scritto:
eccoci........ ;) ;)

ok bix, ma coordinati con go-gain in quanto ci sono 2 3d con lo stesso titolo.

ciao.
giugin :bye:
 
Scritto da Fabri
intendevo il +3% di oggi e un +4% domani.
altre volte con l'America chiusa siamo saliti per 2 giorni di seguito

Spero che si avveri Fabri, ma credo che siamo un po' tiratini, i mercati non si sono ancora stabilizzati dopo il sell-off e a meno di novità sul fronte petrolio prima di un attacco alla ribassista vedo uno stornetto di scarico-ricarico....spero di sbagliarmi, ma non siamo nella stessa situazione di spinta di qualche tempo fa.... ;) Vediamo.
 
giugin ha scritto:
ok bix, ma coordinati con go-gain in quanto ci sono 2 3d con lo stesso titolo.

ciao.
giugin :bye:


in realtà da 2 -3d siamo passati ad 1 -3d....... OK!
 
bix75 ha scritto:
in realtà da 2 -3d siamo passati ad 1 -3d....... OK!


vero, vero. Vedi che uditorio attento?
ciao.
giugin :bye:
 
I think we are half way there and still have plenty of room to go.
Come mi piace questa frase ............
 
Molto interessante la slide 3.
Ma quella sui seamless margin e' molto piu' accattivante perche' se e' vero che il primo trim 2006 rispetto all' ultimo ha avuto un trend ottimo.... se tanto mi da tanto questo trimestre se paragonato allo stesso periodo 2005 dara' l' esatta sensazione di come potrebbe finire l' anno in corso.......:D:D:D:D
 
eccomi qua ero impegnata con lo stacchetto :D :D :D
 

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Buenas tardes Señores...or mejor Buenas noches!!!

Dunque ...bella giornatella per la nostra Cavalla.

Quello che a me interessava era che chiudesse sopra 15,25-27...e cosi' ha fatto.

Altra cosa che si superasse la " testa " delle posizioni short prima a 10, poi ad 1 ora..adesso a 4 ore...

Ed e' proprio quest'ultima " testa"..che mi piace..perche' e' la piu' solida...ben 2.200k ..non male.

Indicatori un po' tirati..ma qui la palla passa adesso agli Yankee...e se domattina superasse o toccasse il valore di 15,65......potrebbe essere un buon viatico per Volatilita', nelle sue medie - shorts USA ( 6,500k)...

Insomma c'e' da vedere un bel po' di situazioni...che potrebbero rendere "neutra" questa giornata da noi....

Ci sono ben due fibo che hanno una forte resistenza...vediamo...notte ( qui ancora no)...
 
Al cambio attuale da noi vale 36.06$, a ws aveva chiuso a 38,11$. E ora come si mette?
 
rimm-jazz ha scritto:
Buenas tardes Señores...or mejor Buenas noches!!!

Dunque ...bella giornatella per la nostra Cavalla.

Quello che a me interessava era che chiudesse sopra 15,25-27...e cosi' ha fatto.

Altra cosa che si superasse la " testa " delle posizioni short prima a 10, poi ad 1 ora..adesso a 4 ore...

Ed e' proprio quest'ultima " testa"..che mi piace..perche' e' la piu' solida...ben 2.200k ..non male.

Indicatori un po' tirati..ma qui la palla passa adesso agli Yankee...e se domattina superasse o toccasse il valore di 15,65......potrebbe essere un buon viatico per Volatilita', nelle sue medie - shorts USA ( 6,500k)...

Insomma c'e' da vedere un bel po' di situazioni...che potrebbero rendere "neutra" questa giornata da noi....

Ci sono ben due fibo che hanno una forte resistenza...vediamo...notte ( qui ancora no)...

Miami? :D
 

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