Turkey (usd) 8% 2034 US900123AT75 7,375% 2025 US900123AW05 vol.II

[pietropanz]

POLL-Turkish factory activity contracted in December
Oggi 12:13 - RSF

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reuters://realtime/verb=Opener=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRIP%3DECI
poll



ISTANBUL, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Turkey's industrial production index is expected to have continued contracting year-on-year in December, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, as a slowdown in some of Turkey's main trade partners hit factory activity.

Industrial activity had bounced back strongly after the initial coronavirus wave in April 2020 and expanded for more than two years straight.

But annual growth has slowed significantly since the summer, with demand declining due to the wider global slowdown. It was unclear how the major earthquake that hit the country's south on Monday might weigh in the months ahead.

The median estimate in the Reuters poll of six institutions showed a year-on-year contraction of 1.35% in the calendar-adjusted industrial production index
in December.

In November, it contracted 1.3% year-on-year, for the first time since 2020.

President Tayyip Erdogan's economic programme prioritises growth, exports, investments and employment while cutting interest rates.

The central bank cut its policy rate by 500 basis points last year, to 9%, in line with Erdogan's unorthodox policy despite soaring inflation. It justified the cuts by saying financial conditions must remain supportive to maintain the growth in industrial production.

The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce November industrial production figures at 0700 GMT on Feb 10.

(Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun and Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
((ezgi.erkoyun@thomsonreuters.com))

 

[pietropanz]

ANALYSIS-Turkey's quake response could shape tough election for Erdogan
Oggi 15:59 - RSF

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May 14 vote president's biggest test in two decades


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Some residents already criticising rescue effort


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Analysts say Erdogan's response could rally support



By Orhan Coskun and Birsen Altayli
ANKARA, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Turkey's deadliest earthquake in a generation has handed President Tayyip Erdogan a huge rescue and reconstruction challenge which will overshadow the run-up to May elections already set to be the toughest of his two decades in power.

A day after the quake struck, killing more than 3,500 people in Turkey, opposition parties and some residents in worst-hit areas complained that authorities were slow or ill-equipped to react to the devastation.

Any perception that the government is failing to address the disaster properly, or had not enforced adequate building codes in a country prone to earthquakes, could hurt Erdogan's prospects in the vote.

But analysts say the president, a skilled campaigner whose government has tackled earthquakes, wildfires and other natural disasters since he came to power in 2003, could rally national support around the crisis response and strengthen his position.

Speaking just hours after Monday's quake, which he described as the worst to hit Turkey in more than 80 years, Erdogan said thousands of rescue workers had already mobilised and no effort would be spared in the harsh winter conditions.

The government declared a "level 4 alarm", calling for international assistance, and a three-month state of emergency in the most affected provinces.

"Erdogan responded rapidly and coherently to the crisis," the Eurasia Group consultancy said. "That is likely to burnish his strong leader image ahead of 14 May elections — if the government can maintain its early momentum."
'BLACK SWAN'
Reconstruction costs are likely to run to many billions of dollars, straining an economy already hit by 58% inflation. The disruption in a region that is home to 13 million people is expected to curb growth this year, economists say.

The scale of the damage, across hundreds of kilometres and affecting millions of people and their homes, would "completely reset" Turkey's economy and politics, said Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.

Describing the 7.8 magnitude quake as a "black swan", an occurrence so unforeseen or unlikely that it could have extreme consequences, he said it was not yet clear whether elections could even be held in the hardest-hit regions.

Erdogan's political opponents have not rushed to make political capital in the immediate aftermath of the quake, as people remain trapped under buildings and the death toll rises.

The six-party opposition said only that the government should work "without discrimination" to address the disaster that hit regions including Kurdish communities and Syrian refugees.

But Ugur Poyraz, Secretary General of centre-right nationalist IYI Party, said he had toured severely hit areas and as of Tuesday morning seen no sign of emergency rescue workers.

"There is definitely no professional aid coordination," he told Reuters. "Citizens and local teams are joining the rescue operations by themselves to save people in the rubble."
Authorities say more than 12,000 search and rescue personnel and another 9,000 troops are in action.

In a close-run election, the government's response to the emergency could sway crucial middle ground voters, although it is unlikely to sway committed supporters of either side, said Hasnain Malik, managing director of emerging and frontier markets equity strategy at Tellimer in Dubai.

"The response of Erdogan's government to this natural disaster might shape the attitude of the floating voter but the loyalties of most voters are already determined."
(Additional reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Nick Macfie)
((Dominic.J.Evans@Thomsonreuters.com, @DominicJEvans)

 

[pietropanz]

UPDATE 1-GRAPHIC-Take Five: The truth about inflation
Oggi 08:10 - RSF
(Updates story published on Friday to add U.S. shooting down of object in theme 3 and updates earthquake death toll in theme 5)
LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Inflation is in the driving seat for markets already taking a punt on when central banks will start to cut borrowing rates.

That puts Tuesday's U.S. inflation data on the must-watch list. Who replaces Haruhiko Kuroda as the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) chief is also in focus with government nominations likely soon, while a deluge of UK data is due.

Meanwhile, in earthquake-hit Turkey, as an enormous humanitarian crisis causes an outpouring of concern, there is also a sense that the disaster could dominate one of the key elections of 2023.

Here's a look at the week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick and Karin Strohecker in London and Ira Iosebashvili in New York.

1/ INFLATION BET
Surprisingly strong January U.S. jobs data forced markets to rethink the view that interest rates will peak soon. Now, Tuesday's latest inflation figure is the next big test for where the Federal Reserve takes rates in coming months.

After rising to multi-decade highs last year, inflation has come in below expectations for three straight months, given the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign since the 1980s.

Economists expect headline inflation to rise 0.5% in January after dipping 0.1% in December.

Stock markets are confident that the Fed can bring down inflation without triggering a sharp growth slowdown.

A strong inflation print could spark another rethink on whether the Fed will actually cut rates by year-end - potentially hurting a rally that has boosted stocks and bonds after last year's rout.

2/ MR BOJ
Japan's government is set to nominate a dark horse candidate to replace Haruhiko Kuroda, whose decade as Bank of Japan chief will end soon.

Deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya was pick of the press and economists, but a Nikkei report on Friday suggests that Kazuo Ueda, a 71-year-old academic and a former member of the BOJ policy board, will be nominated.

The yen strengthened on the report, a curve ball to markets betting on Amamiya, known as "Mr. BOJ" for driving unconventional monetary policies, to take over.

According to the Nikkei, Amamiya declined the top job when approached.

Markets are watching closely. After all, at stake is the future of an ultra-loose monetary policy, which many suspect is likely to shift as inflation moves higher.

3/ JUST HOT AIR?
A strident U.S. response to a so-called a Chinese "spy balloon" in early February could be a bearish signal for one of this year's most favoured trades.

Chinese stocks and the offshore renminbi have been popular with investors as Beijing relaxed the COVID restrictions that had dragged down growth in the world's No.2 economy to one of its lowest rates on record last year.

U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed to "protect" the country from Chinese "threats", following pressure from Republican lawmakers to toughen up on Beijing.

And U.S. military fighter jets on Sunday shot down an octagonal object.

U.S.-China tensions are not new, but they have become fraught since former White House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last year. And almost a year on since Russia invaded Ukraine, investors know not to ignore geopolitical risks.
4/ CAN'T BUY ME LOVE
Spare some Valentine's Day love for British consumers.

January's inflation report on Wednesday could show double-digit price rises, meaning no respite yet on the interest-rate front.

With inflation-adjusted pay falling at its fastest since 2009, retail sales in December - when people are likely to splurge - fell by the most for that month in at least 25 years.

Friday's January retail sales data won't be much prettier.

Consumers are certainly borrowing. Latest data shows credit card lending is around its highest since 2020, but that spending is not on houses - mortgage approvals are at 2009 lows - or out at the shops.

With grocery price inflation at nearly 17% and energy bills tipped to rise 20% this year, food and heating may be where any spare cash is going - not a good sign for the only G7 economy the IMF expects to shrink this year.

5/ SHAKEN
There's global concern for Turkey and neighbouring Syria where an earthquake has led to a humanitarian disaster with the death toll topping 33,000.

There's also acknowledgement that President Tayyip Erdogan's handling of the crisis could dominate the run-up to May's elections, with the rush to save lives overtaking a poll expected to be defined by soaring inflation and regional security.

Turkey's 2002 election - three years after a 7.6 magnitude earthquake near Istanbul that killed nearly 18,000 people - saw the then coalition government decisively ousted as voters viewed its disaster and subsequent financial crisis response as poor.

As the struggle to safe lives continues, presidential and parliamentary elections - perhaps the most consequential in the century-long history of the republic - will determine whether Erdogan enters his third decade in power.


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(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima Talwani, Vineet Sachdev, Pasit Kongkunakornkul and Vincent Flasseur, Editing by Arun Koyyur)
((Dhara.Ranasinghe@thomsonreuters.com; +442075422684)

 

[Lorenz89BL]

La 8% stacca domani la cedola, corretto ?

Grazie a chi mi risponderà

 

[rolis]

si....

 

[xymox]

La 8% stacca domani la cedola, corretto ?

Grazie a chi mi risponderà

Arrivata puntuale all'alba (unicredit)

 

[Lorenz89BL]

Arrivata puntuale all'alba (unicredit)

Di già?🙃

UniCredit accredita prima di avere fisicamente i fondi o attende che la depositaria versi?

 

[xymox]

Di già?🙃

UniCredit accredita prima di avere fisicamente i fondi o attende che la depositaria versi?

A questo non so risponderti, ma posso dirti che è sempre puntualissima a pagare, segno sempre anche le date oltre l'importo

 

[locco68]

Su Fineco invece niente....penso nel pomeriggio

 

[Lorenz89BL]

Su Fineco invece niente....penso nel pomeriggio

Nemmeno intesa🙃

 

[Franco_]

Su Mps dovrebbe arrivare domani allora

 

[frank8]

Su Fineco invece niente....penso nel pomeriggio

Fineco arriveranno probabilmente domani con valuta e cambio Bce di oggi 1,0759

Anche con la 25 era andata così (cambio 1,0776) . .

edit. arrivati oggi pomeriggio . .

 

[andrea190404]

Arrivati puntuali alle 02:36
Banco BPM

 

[Franco_]

Su Mps si fanno attendere

 

[casino greco]

Su Mps si fanno attendere

Anche su intesa, sempre

 

[Lorenz89BL]

Anche su intesa, sempre

Confermi intesa nulla ancora?

 

[casino greco]

Confermi intesa nulla ancora?

Confermo, ad ora nulla!

 

[Lorenz89BL]

Confermo, ad ora nulla!

Quanto ci fan penare con intesa ...🥱🥱🥱

 

[Sine die]

Salve e buon pomeriggio. Alla luce dei dati FED e comunicazioni alle 18 della Bce Dott. ssa Lagarde pensate che domani i prezzi delle obbligazioni stati emergenti, tra cui Turchia e Romania, possono ulteriormente scendere dai minimi di oggi?

 

[dami87]

Salve e buon pomeriggio. Alla luce dei dati FED e comunicazioni alle 18 della Bce Dott. ssa Lagarde pensate che domani i prezzi delle obbligazioni stati emergenti, tra cui Turchia e Romania, possono ulteriormente scendere dai minimi di oggi?

EUR ORE 15,00

Discorso della Presidente della BCE Lagarde