whymustwedie
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Infatti è così, oggi c'è stato un po' di scarico su sovrani area euro e tbond, ma resta tutto molto caro.
Unica roba a sconto è debito HY distressed o quasi, robe pericolose. Io non trovo nulla da comprare già, manco IEMB mi attira più a questi prezzi.
High yield con recessione in arrivo avranno incremento dei default, ma ci sono le banche centrali a pompare.
https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/m...ll-trail-worst-stretch-of-great-recession.pdf
S&P Global Ratings said the default rate for high-yield, or junk, bonds is heading to 10% over the next 12 months, more than triple the rate of 3.1% that closed out 2019.
Junk bond default rate to triple within 12 months, S&P says
Fitch Ratings has revised the 2020 forecasts for European high-yield (HY) corporate default rates to 4%-5% for bonds and 4% for loans, up from its initial forecast of 2.5% for both. We expect bond and loan default rates to increase further in 2021 towards 8% and 7%, respectively.
https://www.fitchratings.com/resear...t-rates-rise-as-credit-cycle-turns-30-03-2020
“We expect the peak default rate for the high-yield portion of the emerging corporate debt market to be 6.5%.” The overall default rate for the whole market is only 3.5%, as investment grade makes up the bulk of this market.
EM corporate debt: an emerging asset class | Special Report | IPE
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