Magyar
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Buongiorno
Sempre short su oil e long su copper
Primo contratto short Oil chiuso
Restano 1 Oil e 2 Copper
CRUDE OIL & Energy in Generale - 25.0
- Creatore Discussione xinian70
- Data di inizio
Primo contratto short Oil chiuso
Restano 1 Oil e 2 Copper
ivan65
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giulione87
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Domani sera le scorte parleranno chiaro..E si salirà ancora probabilmente e si andrà a testare di nuovo i 59.
Vedo che nessuno ha commentato il mio post, forse sono "celate" delle verità? Allora vorrei sapere da voi che segnali di analisi tecnica vi hanno spinto ad andare short quest'oggi. Posso comprendere le ricoperture o gli accumuli ma perchè shortate ragazzi??
FUORI LE MOTIVAZIONI
Vedo che nessuno ha commentato il mio post, forse sono "celate" delle verità? Allora vorrei sapere da voi che segnali di analisi tecnica vi hanno spinto ad andare short quest'oggi. Posso comprendere le ricoperture o gli accumuli ma perchè shortate ragazzi??
FUORI LE MOTIVAZIONI
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Magyar
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Personalmente perchè, come avevo scritto, si stava tradando sulla riunione opec e prima che avvenisse il prezzo tutto sommato era rimasto la, senza andare a sfondare i 60$ prima, appunto, della riunione.
Se fosse stato uno scenario bullish probabilmente il prezzo si sarebbe già mosso sopra i 60 per poi amplificare il movimento non dando il tempo di entrare.
Dato che questo non è avvenuto (raggiungere i 60 subito prima della riunione) ho ritenuto che forse lo short avrebbe pagato più facilmente del long (parlando sempre di breve termine ovviamente)
ops hai ragione, trattasi di straddle! Comunque si, sono opzioni vendute una decina di gg fa. Il future quotava circa 1$ sotto l'attuale valore, quindi sono scese per semplice time decay. Visto che non mi aspetto grosse variazioni del sottostante, aspetto con pazienza che il tempo faccia il suo lavoro.
ps
altra rettifica: in realtà più che theta (ancora troppo piccolo) potè vega. La vola implicita è ora circa 22% mentre allora era 24 o 25
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Magyar
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Primo contratto short Oil chiuso
Restano 1 Oil e 2 Copper
Aggiunto 1 Oil FEB18 long a 57,5
quindi ho 1 short sul GEN da 57,9 e 1 long sul FEB da 57,5
Qual'è quindi il thread giusto?
Se dovesse tornare verso i 50, dipende ovviamente dai tempi e dai movimenti, ma probabilmente riposizionerei lo straddle un po' più in basso. Questo se resta la view attuale di un range 50-60 per i prossimi mesi.
Del resto una discesa nella parte bassa del range è quasi auspicabile, perchè pur essendo lo straddle al momento delta neutral, il calendar spread con futures è di fatto delta negativo. Per bilanciare questo, a suo tempo ho posizionato lo straddle un pò al di sopra sia dello spot che della parte mediana del range (allora era delta leggermente positivo).
automazione
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Aggiunto ottobre 2017 + aggiornato domanda 2018 prevista inizialmente a +1,4 mln di barili ora +1.3 mln di barili.
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bassosebino
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Grazie
saverio1973
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Si shorta a bestia
bassosebino
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E' sempre necessario che ci siano motivazioni/fondamentali dietro un movimento?
Riformulo la domanda: la stessa notizia/dato viene sempre letta in maniera univoca e coerente dal mercato?
automazione
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Nonostante i ribassi pre e dopo opec sta chiudendo sempre sopra la media mobile a 20 giorni...
saverio1973
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Mai pensato e mai dettk
figcap
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UPDATE 2-U.S. oil prices hit highest since 2015, but doubts loom over rally
Henning Gloystein
Published 42 Mins Ago
Reuters
* Brent, WTI crude have risen more than 10 pct since early Dec
* OPEC-led output cuts, dip in U.S. rig count support prices
* Speculators have built up large long positions
* Some warn markets getting ahead of themselves
* After year of good profits, refined product margins have stalled (Updates prices)
SINGAPORE, Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices hit their highest since 2015 again on Tuesday as speculators bet on further price rises amid OPEC-led production cuts and a dip in American drilling activity, though some warned the rally could run out of steam.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $62.16 a barrel at 0751 GMT - 43 cents, or 0.7 percent, above their last settlement. They earlier matched a May-2015 high of $62.56 a barrel.
Beyond equalling that 2015 high, which was a short intra-day spike, Tuesday's peak was the strongest level for WTI since December, 2014, at the start of the oil market slump.
Brent crude futures were at $68.11 a barrel, 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, above their last close. Brent touched $68.27 last week, its highest since May, 2015.
Traders said prices were mainly being driven by speculative money being poured into crude futures on the notion of a tighter market following a year of production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, which are set to last through 2018.
"Speculators continued to increase their net long in ICE Brent ... According to exchange data, speculators increased their position by 4,175 lots to leave them with a record net long of 565,459 lots," ING bank said.
A slight dip in the amount of rigs in the United States drilling for new oil was supporting WTI, traders said.
The number of rigs drilling for oil fell by 5 to 742 in the week to Jan. 5, according to oil services firm Baker Hughes.
GETTING AHEAD?
Despite the recent bull run, which has lifted crude prices by more than 10 percent since early December, some warn that markets are getting ahead of themselves.
The U.S. rig-count remains significantly above the low of 316 in June, 2016, and U.S. crude output <C-OUT-T-EIA> is expected to break through 10 million barrels per day (bpd) soon, hitting a level that only Russia and Saudi Arabia have achieved so far.
"U.S. crude oil production is still increasing, so surely this evidences that the system is, once again, becoming even more efficient," said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker with Freight Investor Services (FIS) in Dubai.
In Asia, the world's biggest oil consuming region, there were also signs that despite the cuts in crude production, fuel supplies remain ample.
Enjoying good profit-margins in 2017, Asian refiners had cranked up processing to a record 23 million bpd by last October.
With profits <DUB-SIN-REF>, known in the oil industry as cracks, now down due to higher feedstock crude prices and ample fuel supplies because of last year's processing binge, Asian refiners have started to reduce output, likely resulting in lower crude orders.
"Falling crude throughput will bring downward price pressure in Q1/Q2, as seasonally softening consumption, narrowing distillate cracks and spring maintenance lower run rates," BMI Research said in a note.
Henning Gloystein
Published 42 Mins Ago
Reuters
* Brent, WTI crude have risen more than 10 pct since early Dec
* OPEC-led output cuts, dip in U.S. rig count support prices
* Speculators have built up large long positions
* Some warn markets getting ahead of themselves
* After year of good profits, refined product margins have stalled (Updates prices)
SINGAPORE, Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices hit their highest since 2015 again on Tuesday as speculators bet on further price rises amid OPEC-led production cuts and a dip in American drilling activity, though some warned the rally could run out of steam.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $62.16 a barrel at 0751 GMT - 43 cents, or 0.7 percent, above their last settlement. They earlier matched a May-2015 high of $62.56 a barrel.
Beyond equalling that 2015 high, which was a short intra-day spike, Tuesday's peak was the strongest level for WTI since December, 2014, at the start of the oil market slump.
Brent crude futures were at $68.11 a barrel, 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, above their last close. Brent touched $68.27 last week, its highest since May, 2015.
Traders said prices were mainly being driven by speculative money being poured into crude futures on the notion of a tighter market following a year of production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, which are set to last through 2018.
"Speculators continued to increase their net long in ICE Brent ... According to exchange data, speculators increased their position by 4,175 lots to leave them with a record net long of 565,459 lots," ING bank said.
A slight dip in the amount of rigs in the United States drilling for new oil was supporting WTI, traders said.
The number of rigs drilling for oil fell by 5 to 742 in the week to Jan. 5, according to oil services firm Baker Hughes.
GETTING AHEAD?
Despite the recent bull run, which has lifted crude prices by more than 10 percent since early December, some warn that markets are getting ahead of themselves.
The U.S. rig-count remains significantly above the low of 316 in June, 2016, and U.S. crude output <C-OUT-T-EIA> is expected to break through 10 million barrels per day (bpd) soon, hitting a level that only Russia and Saudi Arabia have achieved so far.
"U.S. crude oil production is still increasing, so surely this evidences that the system is, once again, becoming even more efficient," said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker with Freight Investor Services (FIS) in Dubai.
In Asia, the world's biggest oil consuming region, there were also signs that despite the cuts in crude production, fuel supplies remain ample.
Enjoying good profit-margins in 2017, Asian refiners had cranked up processing to a record 23 million bpd by last October.
With profits <DUB-SIN-REF>, known in the oil industry as cracks, now down due to higher feedstock crude prices and ample fuel supplies because of last year's processing binge, Asian refiners have started to reduce output, likely resulting in lower crude orders.
"Falling crude throughput will bring downward price pressure in Q1/Q2, as seasonally softening consumption, narrowing distillate cracks and spring maintenance lower run rates," BMI Research said in a note.