credibilità? ma vi rendete conto di quale sforzo sta facendo l'SNB? Devono avere i ciclostili roventi
Scherzi a parte il fatto che il cross non riesca ad allontanarsi da 1.20 la dice lunga sulla solidità di questo rialzo dei mercati cash, è tutto doping (LTRO della BCE) e piccola speculazione sull'ennesima tranche di aiuti alla fallita Grecia. Staremo a vedere l'evoluzione, ma la quotazione del CHF è il vero termometro, perchè una ripresa solida e non speculativa deve passare necessariamente da una diversa allocazione dei capitali. Finchè tutti comprano franchi non si può andare molto lontano
FXstreet.com (Florida) - In the past September, the announcement that the SNB “it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20” fueled the EUR/CHF pair to rally more than 1000 pips this day. After that, the pair rallied again above 1.2450 but this time fueled by rumours on possible repeg to 1.25 and even 1.30 level. After that, the EUR/CHF has then been in a gradual decline.
Now several rumours are talking about a possible SNB intervention to push the CHF weaker and put the EUR/CHF far from the 1.20 level. Can the EUR/CHF break the floor? asks Tim McCullough, Technical Strategist for Lloyds Bank and he believe sureley yes.
Lloyds "reexamined the long and short-term charts to consider if the charts indicate if investors still place such strong faith in the SNB policy," but they conclude "that the long-term chart still looks to retest 1.1311 at a minimum, before the 4 year downtrend can exhaust."
"We do not necessarily expect a retest of last year’s 1.0074 low however," says McCullough. "trend exhaustion signals may now occur closer to 1.13 and we note in particular that some
form of range may be forming with support at 1.1274 (Ichimoku Conversion Line)."
McCullough thinks that despite September 6th SNB announcement, "history might suggest however that eventually any such market interference is at risk of diminishing credibility."
Thus, in the technical perspective, "long-term downtrend remains intact and has not yet reached exhaustion," continues McCullough. "Trend resistance on the monthly chart has been tested recently, but each time remains intact at month end, indicating that the downtrend is set to resume. Resistance is now at 1.2490 (at month end). As time passes this level will decline further, reducing the scope of further rallies within the parameters of this 4 year trend"
Forex Flash: EUR/CHF to retest 1.1311 - Lloyds Bank