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Il mio portafoglio a modo mio (diversificazione, leva)

  • Creatore Discussione Membro cancellato 251249
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L'anno si avvicina alla chiusura; col portafoglio titoli è andata molto meglio di quanto sperassi.

Il guadagno rispetto al benchmark è arrivato da tre fattori principali:
- leva finanziaria, nonostante l'elevato tasso sul fido
- esposizione al bitcoin
- timing azzeccato su AT2120

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soma ha scritto:
Da leggere assolutamente, si impara qualcosa ;)

23 Ideas from 2023 - Safal Niveshak
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Ho molto apprezzato l’avere incluso alcuni pensieri di Howard Marks. Investitore molto particolare, ascolto tutti i suoi memo (c’è un bellissimo podcast). Sono una vera e propria palestra. Non essere attirati e conformati nel gregge (FOMO?), vedere le cose con distacco, avere pazienza, controllare la paura e diffidare dall’euforia sono qualità che richiedono allenamento continuo.
 
Central Bank rate actions in 2023...
Chile: - 300 bps (11.25% -> 8.25%)
Brazil: -200 bps (13.75% -> 11.75%)
Poland: -100 bps (6.75% -> 5.75%)
Peru: -75 bps (7.50% -> 6.75%)
China: -20 bps (3.65% -> 3.45%)
India: +25 bps (6.25% -> 6.50%)
Indonesia: +50 bps (5.50% -> 6.00%)
Switzerland: +75 bps (1.00% -> 1.75%)
Canada: +75 bps (4.25% -> 5.00%)
Mexico: +75 bps (10.50% -> 11.25%)
US: +100 bps (4.33% -> 5.33%)
Philippines: +100 bps (5.50% -> 6.50%)
Australia: +125 bps (3.10% -> 4.35%)
Sweden: +150 bps (2.50% -> 4.00%)
UK: +175 bps (3.50% -> 5.25%)
Denmark: +185 bps (1.90% -> 3.75%)
Eurozone: +200 bps (2.50% -> 4.50%)
Russia: +850 bps (7.50% -> 16.00%)
Argentina: +2,500 bps (75% -> 100%)
Turkey: +3,350 bps (9.00% -> 42.50%)
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1740790521461694576
 
The risks associated with low-carbon resources are significantly lower than for oil and gas exploration and extraction. While there is high uncertainty in the expected output for oil and gas, capacity is the primary risk for low-carbon resources. Selling risks in renewables are also much lower because fixed-offtake agreements cover more than half of renewable energy projects, in which power prices are locked in for a certain period. Unlike fossil fuel extraction, renewable projects are developed closer to the end-users, reducing political risk and exposure to geopolitical disturbances.
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However, geopolitics still play a significant role in the development of renewables, as low-carbon supply chains are heavily dominated by a few countries. While costs and prices are traditional risks associated with development, procurement risks are much more significant in renewables than in oil and gas. These factors represent important differences that oil and gas companies venturing into renewables should be aware of and aim to manage.
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Supply chains for oil and gas equipment and services are relatively fragmented and geographically diverse, with suppliers from Europe, the US, Russia, the Middle East, and mainland China. However, the renewable energy supply chain is heavily concentrated, dominated by a few suppliers and with a clear concentration in China and a handful of other nations for mineral extraction. This makes renewables more vulnerable to sourcing risks than oil and gas, as there are fewer supplier options and a greater reliance on specific countries or regions. This means procurement officers within renewables have a greater need to apply careful risk management.
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Specialized supply chains can be positive from a cost perspective, but it also poses challenges. Natural disasters, unexpected events and other disruptions can impact the reliability of supply chains – as seen during the pandemic and recently with ship attacks in the Red Sea – resulting in lockdowns and transport disruptions. Scalability and flexibility are also important dimensions, as there will be consequences if demand outstrips supply and countries prioritize their best trade partner or geopolitically important ally. Additionally, there is a risk that a nation or company may use critical materials, components or equipment as an economic weapon or for espionage purposes.
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Renewable Energy Faces Supply Chain Bottlenecks | OilPrice.com
 
When it comes to rare-earth elements (REEs), lithium stands out because of its usefulness and potential value. That's why the Department of Energy (DOE) was jumping for joy when it discovered what is believed to be the world's largest supply of lithium beneath California's Salton Sea. The estimated 18 million-ton motherlode could be worth up to $540 billion and meet America's demand for decades to come.
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World's Largest Reserve Of REE Lithium Discovered Beneath California's Salton Sea: $540 Billion Motherlode Could Meet America's Supply Demands For Decades
 
Blue Zones are regions of the world where people live startlingly, almost magically, long lives. As the story goes, a group of intrepid researchers went looking for the oldest people in the world at the start of the 21st century. They found five places with astonishingly high rates of centenarians and supercentenarians—people who live beyond 100 and 110 years, respectively. Those places are Loma Linda, California; Ikaria, Greece; Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; and Nicoya, Costa Rica. To give you an idea of the promise of Blue Zones, the original investigation into Sardinia found that the region had a rate of people aged over 100 years that was about 15 times higher than the Italian national average.
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The problem with trying to determine how many very old people are alive in an area is that the further back you look to verify ages, the worse the records get. It’s reasonably easy to figure out where and when a person was born if they are 80. But when we’re talking about 110-year-olds, the records are decidedly patchier. (The supercentenarians at the start of the Blue Zones study were born in the late 1800s.)
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There’s even some solid evidence that the rate of supercentenarians in a given area can be due to bad data. If you look at the Gerontology Research Group’s database of supercentenarians and compare it to the years in which U.S. states introduced full birth registration, you see a startling pattern. People who claim to be very old are mostly born before birth registration became statewide—afterward, the rate of 110-plus-year-olds drops by a staggering 80 percent per year. One good example is the state of California. There are 12 people in the GRG database who were born in California, but curiously none of them were born after the year 1900, when the state fully implemented birth registration.
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The problem, of course, is that all of this is still very uncertain. It is not impossible for the rate of supercentenarians to coincidentally decline because of some other factor after better birth registration.
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Do “Blue Zones” Really Exist?
 
Il settore oil&gas ha dalla sua un'alto inflation beta, una bassa correlazione col resto del mercato ed una elevata volatilità che lo rendono appetibile come rebalancing bonus, ma il rendimento medio storico non è stato tra i punti a favore. Un settore robusto (value, dividend yield).

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Sector Performance and Concentration

Although equities in general have performed quite poorly in high and rising inflation environments, there are potential areas that have historically performed better at the sector level. The energy sector, which includes oil and gas companies, is one of them. Such firms beat inflation 74% of the time and delivered an annual real return of 12.9% per year on average.
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Which Equity Sectors Can Combat Higher Inflation?

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https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/investing-sector-guide.pdf

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https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/de6dfd90-3fcd-42f0-aaf9-4b3565462b5a
 
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