T'ho beccatevi una bella ventata di ottimismo con il Nuriello Nazionale!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1587856868&play=1
Nonostante condivida la preoccupazione per il rallentamento in atto; io credo che con in adeguato stock picking si può fare meglio del rendimento dei bond che ormai sono ai minimi. Ci sono tanti titoli solidi, se gli USA rallentano ai prodotturi di birra brasiliana importa poco (ABV). Cosi come al petrolieri cinesi (CEO), cosi come ai produttori di farmaci generici (WPI), ecc...
Certo la prudenza è d'obbligo in un clima di rallentamento. Ma perchè shortare questo mercato?? Quanto mai potrà scendere?? Io molto più basso dei minimi dell'anno faccio fatica a vedercelo a meno che non scoppia qualche grana a livello bancario...
L'unico rischio che vedo è lo scoppio di qualche grana bancaria o governativa magari innescata strumentalmente dalla disperazione di qualche grosso hedge che ha posizioni short sul mercato.
Perche per il resto leggendo anche questo la situazione appare chiara:
Fears of “double-dip” recessions in Japan and the US couldn’t dent summer rallies in key industrial commodities, such as copper, rubber, and steel - traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In each case, the rallies were supported by a reduction in supply. Orders by Beijing to Chinese steel mills to trim output by 25-million tons annually prompted a rally in steel prices across Asia. That equals 4% of China’s record crude steel output, and a quarter of the nation’s excess supply.
China, the world’s largest natural rubber user, is expected to boost imports 10% this year after “robust demand” from tire makers depleted inventories to the lowest level in seven-years. Natural rubber prices climbed to 26,200-yuan ($3,850) /ton on the Shanghai exchange, the highest level since July 2008. Rubber stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined to 14,770-tons on June 24, the lowest since Feb 2003, and fell sharply from 24,700-tons last week.
About half of the world’s rubber supply is used for making tires. China’s tire exports jumped 30% in the first six months from a year earlier to 87-million tires as demand from developing countries outweighed lost sales in the US, which levied a 35% tariff on China-made tires. Total vehicle sales in China were 56% higher compared with a year ago to 1.22-million units, boosting the demand for rubber.
Copper futures in Shanghai rebounded 20% over the past ten-weeks, tracking gains on the Shanghai red-chip index. Global copper miners put a floor under the London copper market at $6,000 /ton, by cutting output 6% in the first half of this year. Copper stockpiles held at the London Metal Exchange were whittled down to 395,000-tons, down 28% since mid-February levels of 555,000-tons. In Shanghai, copper stocks dropped to 105,200-tons today, from 185,000-tons in April.
Still, when viewed from a longer-term perspective, the Rogers Int’l Commodity Index, and the Baltic Dry Index, are far below their bubble highs of 2008, and little changed from levels that prevailed 5-years ago. Chinese imports, a key driver of the “Commodity Super Cycle” in earlier years, rebounded to new all-time highs, yet the commodity indexes were left behind in the dust. China is taking advantage of the lower commodity prices, by restocking iron ore, coal, crude oil, and soybeans, from Australia, South Africa and South America, as it braces for the winter season, with droughts and floods across the globe causing a shortage of grains.
The US-government aims to keep inflation under wraps through greater regulation of commodity traders, in the event the Fed decides to unleash QE-2, and boosts the money supply. The CFTC began eyeing position limits after oil and other commodity prices soared to record highs in 2008, on signs that investment banking firms were dominating trade. The commodities market was valued at $2.9-trillion in December 2009, and US-investment banks held one-third of the contracts.
Wall Street Oligarchs, JP-Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, are closing their proprietary trading operations in commodities, in conformity with financial reform, after more than five-years of rapid expansion. Yet other legions of commodity speculators are entering the game, and in recent weeks, commodities such as oil, copper, cotton, grains, and gold had strong trading volume. Chinese and Indian demand for commodities is also expected to grow in the years ahead.
