Oggi la bisca.......volume 4°..................
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FINCANTIERI -0,6% Goldman Sachs abbatte il target price da 0,70 euro a 0,45 euro 19/11/2015 10:07 - WS
Fincantieri (FCT.MI) frena dopo tre rialzi consecutivi che hanno allontanato la quotazione dal minimo storico segnato a 0,399 euro. Stamattina scambia a 0,4315 euro.
Goldman Sachs ha preso posizione sul titolo tagliando il target price del 35% circa a 0,45 euro da 0,70 euro. La raccomandazione resta Neutral.
Risultati trimestrali deludenti, terremoto al vertice e timori di un aumento di capitale hanno convinto molti broker a tagliare giudizio e target.
Il gruppo ha archiviato i primi nove mesi del 2015 con una perdita netta di 96 milioni di euro dall'utile di 42 milioni di un anno prima.
Senza le poste straordinarie la perdita sarebbe stata pari a 73 milioni.
I ricavi sono saliti a 3,03 miliardi dai 2,96 miliardi.
Il portafoglio ordini è salito a 17,605 miliardi dai 14,59 miliardi di un anno prima.
L'Ebitda si è quasi azzerato ed è sceso a 6 milioni dai 207 milioni dei primi nove mesi del 2014.
Il gruppo sta lavorando a un nuovo piano industriale che illustrerà in occasione della presentazione del bilancio 2015.
Andrea Mangoni ha rassegnato le dimissioni dalle cariche di componente del Consiglio di Amministrazione e Direttore Generale di Fincantieri.
Collocata in Borsa nel luglio 2014 a 0,78 euro per azione, Fincantieri era salita in Piazza Affari fino a un massimo di 0,847 euro, segnato il 20 aprile 2015.
La capitalizzazione è scesa a 740 milioni.
La perdita da inizio anno si è ampliata a -45%.
Guardando al consenso riportato da Bloomberg emerge che a questo punto gli analisti non sanno "che pesci prendere".
I dieci analisti censiti sono tutti piazzati su un giudizio neutrale. Target medio 0,50 euro.
Soltanto a giugno erano ancora cinque gli esperti ottimisti e il target medio era indicato a 0,80 euro.
Homepage Websim
Titoli correlati a questa news: FINCANTIERI FCT.MI (News, Quotazione),
NO COMMENT............
Fincantieri (FCT.MI) frena dopo tre rialzi consecutivi che hanno allontanato la quotazione dal minimo storico segnato a 0,399 euro. Stamattina scambia a 0,4315 euro.
Goldman Sachs ha preso posizione sul titolo tagliando il target price del 35% circa a 0,45 euro da 0,70 euro. La raccomandazione resta Neutral.
Risultati trimestrali deludenti, terremoto al vertice e timori di un aumento di capitale hanno convinto molti broker a tagliare giudizio e target.
Il gruppo ha archiviato i primi nove mesi del 2015 con una perdita netta di 96 milioni di euro dall'utile di 42 milioni di un anno prima.
Senza le poste straordinarie la perdita sarebbe stata pari a 73 milioni.
I ricavi sono saliti a 3,03 miliardi dai 2,96 miliardi.
Il portafoglio ordini è salito a 17,605 miliardi dai 14,59 miliardi di un anno prima.
L'Ebitda si è quasi azzerato ed è sceso a 6 milioni dai 207 milioni dei primi nove mesi del 2014.
Il gruppo sta lavorando a un nuovo piano industriale che illustrerà in occasione della presentazione del bilancio 2015.
Andrea Mangoni ha rassegnato le dimissioni dalle cariche di componente del Consiglio di Amministrazione e Direttore Generale di Fincantieri.
Collocata in Borsa nel luglio 2014 a 0,78 euro per azione, Fincantieri era salita in Piazza Affari fino a un massimo di 0,847 euro, segnato il 20 aprile 2015.
La capitalizzazione è scesa a 740 milioni.
La perdita da inizio anno si è ampliata a -45%.
Guardando al consenso riportato da Bloomberg emerge che a questo punto gli analisti non sanno "che pesci prendere".
I dieci analisti censiti sono tutti piazzati su un giudizio neutrale. Target medio 0,50 euro.
Soltanto a giugno erano ancora cinque gli esperti ottimisti e il target medio era indicato a 0,80 euro.
Homepage Websim
Titoli correlati a questa news: FINCANTIERI FCT.MI (News, Quotazione),
NO COMMENT............
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SAIPEM - L'Analisi Tecnica di Websim 19/11/2015 09:56 - WS
FATTO
Saipem (SPM.MI) scambia a 8,15 euro, +0,20%.
Liberum ha alzato il target a 7 euro (da 5,70 euro), mantenendo la raccomandazione Sell.
La performance da inizio anno di Saipem è sotto la parità (-7%), ormai dallo scorso luglio, dopo aver toccato a maggio un picco a +47%.
EFFETTO
Graficamente, la robusta fascia di supporto intorno a 7,0 euro ha innescato nel corso del 2015 una serie di forti rimbalzi che non sono mai andati oltre la soglia dei 13 euro.
Le ultime due reazioni sono state bloccate da area 9 euro.
Operatività. L'analisi tecnica di Websim non ha posizioni aperte.
Ribadisce ingressi sulla debolezza verso area 7,0 euro o, in alternativa, sulla forza in caso di chiusura sopra 9,10 euro. Dettagli nella scheda tecnica.
SAIPEM
FATTO
Saipem (SPM.MI) scambia a 8,15 euro, +0,20%.
Liberum ha alzato il target a 7 euro (da 5,70 euro), mantenendo la raccomandazione Sell.
La performance da inizio anno di Saipem è sotto la parità (-7%), ormai dallo scorso luglio, dopo aver toccato a maggio un picco a +47%.
EFFETTO
Graficamente, la robusta fascia di supporto intorno a 7,0 euro ha innescato nel corso del 2015 una serie di forti rimbalzi che non sono mai andati oltre la soglia dei 13 euro.
Le ultime due reazioni sono state bloccate da area 9 euro.
Operatività. L'analisi tecnica di Websim non ha posizioni aperte.
Ribadisce ingressi sulla debolezza verso area 7,0 euro o, in alternativa, sulla forza in caso di chiusura sopra 9,10 euro. Dettagli nella scheda tecnica.
SAIPEM
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la bisca oggi...........bund negativi fino alla scadenza di 6 anni........
il piatto di marietto si fa sempre più sostanzioso
con 5 anni di bund vi beccate ZERO
se per qualcuno è una cosa normale si faccia avanti..............e mi spieghi per beme sta cosa...............
the new normal
il piatto di marietto si fa sempre più sostanzioso
con 5 anni di bund vi beccate ZERO
se per qualcuno è una cosa normale si faccia avanti..............e mi spieghi per beme sta cosa...............
the new normal
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ANALISI FONDAMENTALE: MEDIOLANUM 19/11/2015 12:50 - WS
Risultati. Mediolanum (MED.MI) ha chiuso i primi nove mesi con un utile netto in crescita del 26% a 311,4 milioni ed un margine di interesse di 187,5 milioni, dai 174,5 milioni del corrispondente periodo dell'anno scorso. Il cda ha deliberato un acconto di dividendo di 0,16 euro, da 0,15 euro dell'anno scorso, con stacco il 23 novembre.
Nel terzo trimestre i ricavi da commissioni generati dai fondi, di gran lunga la prima fonte di introito, sono saliti del 7% anno su anno a 248 milioni di euro, noi ci aspettavamo 261 milioni. Il margine d'interesse è salito a 62 milioni da 59 milioni. L'area assicurativa ha generato 6 milioni di ricavi, meno della metà dello stesso periodo di un anno prima e peggio del previsto.
I costi si sono attestati a 262 milioni di euro, in calo dai livelli dei primi due trimestri del 2015, in aumento rispetto allo stesso periodo dell'anno precedente. Noi ci aspettavamo 282 milioni.
Il risultato netto, anche per effetto dell'andamento dei costi, è 90 milioni di euro, in miglioramento da 81 milioni di un anno prima, meglio delle nostre stime.
La società ha una struttura patrimoniale più che solida, il core Tier 1 è 18,8%.
Previsioni. Nel corso della conference call il management ha anticipato che ottobre sarà un mese eccezionalmente positivo, le commissioni di performance, quelle che i clienti pagano in funzione del risultato del prodotto di investimento che hanno sottoscritto, sarà di poco superiore ai 100 milioni di euro. Il management ha anche precisato meglio le indicazioni sui costi, nel 2015 saranno più bassi di quello inizialmente stimato. Il margine di interesse degli ultimi tre mesi dell'anno sarà all'incirca in linea con i primi tre trimestri.
Dati mensili sulla raccolta. In ottobre è stata pari a 248 milioni di euro. Per i fondi, gli afflussi netti sono stati pari a 170 milioni di euro, 54 mln attraverso "MyLife": da inizio anno siamo a 3,929 miliardi
Rapporti con gli organismi di controllo. Il regolatore europeo dei mercati finanziari (ESMA) dovrebbe comunicare nella prima parte del 2016 le linee guida in materia di calcolo delle commissioni. Mediolanum ha ribadito che non si aspetta significative penalizzazioni in caso di revisione restrittiva. Entro la fine dell'anno ci dovrebbe essere anche un accordo con l'Agenzia delle Entrate su una disputa per tasse non pagate.
Il regolatore britannico FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) ha lanciato un'investigazione sul settore asset management in Gran Bretagna. L'obiettivo è quello di verificare le condizioni di concorrenza sul mercato, il ruolo svolto dagli investor consultants e la coerenza dei costi pagati dai clienti rispetto ai servizi e ai prodotti offerti.
L'inchiesta dimostra quanto sia alta l'attenzione dei regolatori sulle dinamiche del settore Asset Management
Stime, target, raccomandazione. Abbiamo rivisto al rialzo le stime di utile per incorporare il balzo delle commissioni di ottobre. Portiamo a 8 euro il target price, dal precedente 7,4 euro. Confermiamo il giudizio NEUTRALE anche perché resta qualche incertezza su eventuali provvedimenti dell'Esma.
Mediolanum, partecipata al 40,4% dalla famiglia Doris e al 30,1% da Fininvest, è la più grande fra le società italiane del risparmio gestito quotate.
A fine 2015 stimiamo che la società gestisca complessivamente attività per un valore pari a 62,4 miliardi di euro, da 56,5 miliardi sotto gestione al 31 dicembre 2014.
Per il 2016 prevediamo un utile netto di 353 milioni di euro, da 429 milioni del 2015 e 323 del 2014.
Stime Websim/Intermonte.
Homepage Websim
Risultati. Mediolanum (MED.MI) ha chiuso i primi nove mesi con un utile netto in crescita del 26% a 311,4 milioni ed un margine di interesse di 187,5 milioni, dai 174,5 milioni del corrispondente periodo dell'anno scorso. Il cda ha deliberato un acconto di dividendo di 0,16 euro, da 0,15 euro dell'anno scorso, con stacco il 23 novembre.
Nel terzo trimestre i ricavi da commissioni generati dai fondi, di gran lunga la prima fonte di introito, sono saliti del 7% anno su anno a 248 milioni di euro, noi ci aspettavamo 261 milioni. Il margine d'interesse è salito a 62 milioni da 59 milioni. L'area assicurativa ha generato 6 milioni di ricavi, meno della metà dello stesso periodo di un anno prima e peggio del previsto.
I costi si sono attestati a 262 milioni di euro, in calo dai livelli dei primi due trimestri del 2015, in aumento rispetto allo stesso periodo dell'anno precedente. Noi ci aspettavamo 282 milioni.
Il risultato netto, anche per effetto dell'andamento dei costi, è 90 milioni di euro, in miglioramento da 81 milioni di un anno prima, meglio delle nostre stime.
La società ha una struttura patrimoniale più che solida, il core Tier 1 è 18,8%.
Previsioni. Nel corso della conference call il management ha anticipato che ottobre sarà un mese eccezionalmente positivo, le commissioni di performance, quelle che i clienti pagano in funzione del risultato del prodotto di investimento che hanno sottoscritto, sarà di poco superiore ai 100 milioni di euro. Il management ha anche precisato meglio le indicazioni sui costi, nel 2015 saranno più bassi di quello inizialmente stimato. Il margine di interesse degli ultimi tre mesi dell'anno sarà all'incirca in linea con i primi tre trimestri.
Dati mensili sulla raccolta. In ottobre è stata pari a 248 milioni di euro. Per i fondi, gli afflussi netti sono stati pari a 170 milioni di euro, 54 mln attraverso "MyLife": da inizio anno siamo a 3,929 miliardi
Rapporti con gli organismi di controllo. Il regolatore europeo dei mercati finanziari (ESMA) dovrebbe comunicare nella prima parte del 2016 le linee guida in materia di calcolo delle commissioni. Mediolanum ha ribadito che non si aspetta significative penalizzazioni in caso di revisione restrittiva. Entro la fine dell'anno ci dovrebbe essere anche un accordo con l'Agenzia delle Entrate su una disputa per tasse non pagate.
Il regolatore britannico FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) ha lanciato un'investigazione sul settore asset management in Gran Bretagna. L'obiettivo è quello di verificare le condizioni di concorrenza sul mercato, il ruolo svolto dagli investor consultants e la coerenza dei costi pagati dai clienti rispetto ai servizi e ai prodotti offerti.
L'inchiesta dimostra quanto sia alta l'attenzione dei regolatori sulle dinamiche del settore Asset Management
Stime, target, raccomandazione. Abbiamo rivisto al rialzo le stime di utile per incorporare il balzo delle commissioni di ottobre. Portiamo a 8 euro il target price, dal precedente 7,4 euro. Confermiamo il giudizio NEUTRALE anche perché resta qualche incertezza su eventuali provvedimenti dell'Esma.
Mediolanum, partecipata al 40,4% dalla famiglia Doris e al 30,1% da Fininvest, è la più grande fra le società italiane del risparmio gestito quotate.
A fine 2015 stimiamo che la società gestisca complessivamente attività per un valore pari a 62,4 miliardi di euro, da 56,5 miliardi sotto gestione al 31 dicembre 2014.
Per il 2016 prevediamo un utile netto di 353 milioni di euro, da 429 milioni del 2015 e 323 del 2014.
Stime Websim/Intermonte.
Homepage Websim
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Global Markets Surge Overnight On Fed Minutes Optimism; ECB Minutes Set To Keep Rally Going
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 - 06:55
While it is still unclear just why the FOMC Minutes which are said to have made a December liftoff "more likely" unleashed a dramatic market rally, one which sent both stocks and TSYs higher, the sentiment continued overnight, with both Asian stocks surging on the US momentum, as well as Europe, where the DAX gapped solidly above the 200 DMA as most European shares advanced, led by resources, travel stocks. U.S. futures continue their ramp higher, and at last check were another 8 points, or 0.4%, in the green. But if the Fed Minutes were enough to unleash the latest leg in this rally, than the ECB's own minutes due also today, should send futures back over 2100 without much difficult, regardless of their actual content.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 - 06:55
While it is still unclear just why the FOMC Minutes which are said to have made a December liftoff "more likely" unleashed a dramatic market rally, one which sent both stocks and TSYs higher, the sentiment continued overnight, with both Asian stocks surging on the US momentum, as well as Europe, where the DAX gapped solidly above the 200 DMA as most European shares advanced, led by resources, travel stocks. U.S. futures continue their ramp higher, and at last check were another 8 points, or 0.4%, in the green. But if the Fed Minutes were enough to unleash the latest leg in this rally, than the ECB's own minutes due also today, should send futures back over 2100 without much difficult, regardless of their actual content.
Allegati
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WTI Tumbles Back Below $40, Goldman Warns Risk Of "Sharp Leg Lower"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 - 08:15
After an exuberantv-shaped recovery of hawkish fed minutes, WTI Crude (Dec contract) has tumbled back below $40 this morning following warnings from Goldmn Sachs of the potential for a "sharp leg lower" to $20 handle given expectations for warmer-than-normal weather this winter
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 - 08:15
After an exuberantv-shaped recovery of hawkish fed minutes, WTI Crude (Dec contract) has tumbled back below $40 this morning following warnings from Goldmn Sachs of the potential for a "sharp leg lower" to $20 handle given expectations for warmer-than-normal weather this winter
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Goldman Releases Its Top 6 Trades For 2016... And The Three Biggest Risks
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 07:50 -0500
Bond Book Value China Core CPI CPI Crude Crude Oil Currency Peg fixed Germany Italy Japan Portugal Recession Risk Premium Yuan
inShare
1
Moments ago, just two days after it was closed out of its Top Trade for 2015 ("to be short EUR/$ via a 1.00 – 0.95 put spread (initially struck at 1.20-1.15 with spot at 1.25), which expires out of the money incurring a loss of premium"), Goldman released its first Top 6 Trades for 2016. For those who can't wait to take the other side of Goldman's clients, and thus the same side of Goldman's prop desk, here they are.
Top Trade #1: Long USD vs short EUR and JPY
Go long USD against an equally-weighted basket of EUR and JPY at 100, with a spot target of 110 and a stop loss of 95. Annual carry is positive at around 1%.
The divergence between the Fed and both the ECB and BoJ will continue to be one of the more durable themes of 2016, in our view. In the US, we believe ongoing improvement in the labour market and resilience in domestic demand will ultimately drive a Fed tightening cycle that is more hawkish than the market is currently discounting. And in Europe and Japan, the fragility of their economic recoveries and lower starting point for inflation mean that the policy stance will remain dovish and will lean against the Fed. Currencies are particularly sensitive to this divergence pressure and, despite the strength we have seen so far, we believe the USD has more room to appreciate vs the EUR and JPY.
Top Trade #2: Long US 10-year ‘Breakeven’ Inflation
Stay long 10-year US break-even inflation (USGGBE10 Index), opened on 10 November 2015 at 1.60%, with an initial target of 2.0% and a stop on a close below 1.40%.
In the US, core CPI inflation is running just below 2%, and the more sticky service price components of the index are trending upwards, contributing more than 200bp to the headline reading. Yet, since the oil price crash in mid-2014, inflation expectations priced by the market have declined all the way out to 10-years. Currently, the inflation swap market prices that headline CPI will not reach 2% (the Fed’s inflation objective) until around 2020. Moreover, the option market assigns a 40% probability to CPI averaging less than 1% over the next 5 years. We think this represents an opportunity to take the other side of too pessimistic expectations by being long 10-year TIPS and short nominal Treasury bonds. Our view is predicated on the idea that continued above-trend growth will lead to a further build-up of wage and price pressures. In our central outlook, the drag to headline inflation from the energy complex should gradually reverse in the coming months.
Top Trade #3: Long MXN and RUB (equally weighted) versus short ZAR and CLP (equally weighted).
Go long an equally-weighted basket of MXN and RUB versus short an equallyweighted basket of ZAR and CLP, with an entry level of 100, total return target of 110 and stops at 95. The expected return, including carry, is around 10%.
This EM relative value trade speaks to a number of our key themes in EM in 2016. It positions for (i) currencies where external balances have adjusted in recent years (RUB) versus those where more progress is required (ZAR); (ii) currencies (MXN and, again, RUB) that are exposed to crude oil where we see limited further downside under our central forecasts versus commodities tied to capital expenditure, such as industrial metals, where we see further downside (CLP, ZAR); and (iii) the short side is relatively more exposed to a slowing in China and the risk of a CNY depreciation. We expect a 10% total return including carry (about 1% on a 12-month basis).
Top Trade #4: Long EM ‘External Demand’ vs. Banks stocks
Go long a basket of 48 non-commodity exporters (GSEMEXTD Index) and short a basket of 50 EM banks stocks (GSEMBNKS Index). We will monitor this trade as the ratio between the two indices, currently at 1.12, with a target of +15% (1.30) and a stop loss of -7% (1.04).
We expect the EM growth engine to remain challenged heading into 2016, facing the headwinds of sustained low commodity prices, a bumpy downshift in China’s growth engine and stretched leverage ratios across the EM complex. We find that equities tend to be the most sensitive asset class to shifts in growth, and suggest adopting long/short exposure tying into diverging growth trajectories.
Specifically, we recommend buying a basket of non-commodity EM exporter stocks and selling a basket of the largest EM bank stocks. This trade reflects an improving external (DM) environment, helped by weaker EM currencies, versus slowing credit growth across EM as US interest rates rise. At the margin, this trade would benefit from left-tail risks in China (either growth or a currency devaluation) given a greater weighting of China equity in the short leg (22% among ‘Banks’ vs. 6% in ‘External Demand’), although the beta of the long/short pair to China risk is quite low. We will monitor the trade through the ratio of the Bloomberg baskets: GSEMEXTD <INDEX> vs. GSEMBNKS <INDEX>.
Top Trade #5: Tighter Spread between Italy and Germany Long Rates
Go long 5-year, 5-year forward Italian sovereign yields vs short 5-year 5-year forward German yields, with an entry level of 160bp, target of 100bp and stop loss of 190bp.
The ECB’s easy interest rate policy and its government bond purchase programme have contributed to a decline in long-dated yields across the EMU bloc and beyond. Yet, the term structure of intra-EMU sovereign spreads has remained quite steep. The difference between 5-year rates in Italy and those in Germany is 50bp. But the same differential widens to over 150bp 5 years into the future. We think that a combination of the extension of the ECB’s QE program into 2017 (removing around 20% of the Italian debt stock from public hands, and fostering an extension of its average life), stronger Italian GDP growth than seen over the past two years and a cut to the deposit rate further into negative territory will encourage a compression of forward Italy-Germany spreads at least to where they were around the announcement of QE in March. A possible shift in the target duration of national central bank purchases and/or a shift away from an ECB capital key allocation of bond purchases to market capitalization would clearly give the trade a bigger boost. In terms of the more closely watched 10-year Italy-Germany spread, our trade recommendation implies a move from the current 105bp to around 75bp. We would look to add Spain and Portugal to the long side of the trade recommendation once uncertainties regarding the respective political scenes have subsided in the New Year.
Top Trade #6: Long large-cap US Banks relative to the overall S&P500
Go long large-cap US Banks through the BKX Index relative to the S&P500, indexed at inception to 100, with a target at 110 and stop loss at 95.
US banks tend to be mildly pro-cyclical and also benefit from a rising longer-dated yield environment (we forecast a steeper US term structure than the forwards discount), as the Fed tightening will lead to a progressive upward revision of expectations on terminal rates, while the ECB and BoJ’s efforts to boost inflation should restore bond premium across major markets. US banks are still relatively well-priced, trading just above book value and with a P/E below that of the overall market, and at about median levels compared with its own past history. Moreover, they remain off their recent highs, unlike other possible implementations of the domestic growth theme in the US stock market.
* * *
And here are the three main risks Goldman believes are associated with its top trades:
Three Main Risks: Bond Yields Up, China and Oil Down
As always, there are idiosyncratic risks surrounding our Top Trade recommendations. There are three ‘common’ or systemic risks to which our set of trades is most exposed:
Bond yields rising faster than we already anticipate: We are about to enter the first tightening cycle since 2004, following seven years of near-zero rates. At the micro level, the instruments through which the Fed intends to tighten policy (IOER, reverse repos, term deposit, run-down of the bond portfolio) and their interaction with regulatory constraints on financial intermediaries, are largely untested. At the macro level, the market-implied expectation of ‘terminal rates’ is unusually depressed (the forwards discount that US policy rates will be barely positive in 5 years’ time), and the term premium is close to zero.
Against this backdrop, the risk of negative shocks originating from the fixed income markets (ranging from liquidity dislocations to a rapid shift in duration risk) is hard to calibrate. We have confidence that the loopback effects for Fed policy (i.e., a shallower path for Fed Funds should financial conditions tighten excessively), against a global backdrop of low interest rates, would ultimately cap the increase in bond yields. But the path to the new equilibrium could be volatile. In terms of our recommended Top Trades, risk factor analysis suggests that our long US banks vs SPX, as well as long USD trade recommendations would stand to benefit from a rising USD yield environment, but historical comparisons may be less relevant given the exceptional starting conditions.
A further fall in commodity prices, in particular crude oil: Our Commodities team remains bearish on industrial metals, and has flagged a downside risks to their forecasts for crude oil in the near term given the high level of inventories. Should this risk materialize, this would drag headline inflation down, masking the acceleration in core CPI; hurt the RUB and MXN; amplify credit risk in US HY in other large oil producers; and, more broadly, increase risk premium across assets. Ultimately, one should not lose sight of the fact that lower energy prices represent, over the medium term, a transfer of savings towards advanced economies. The trades that are most directly exposed to a decline in crude oil are long US inflation and our EM FX basket.
A devaluation of the Chinese Yuan: The ongoing decline in industrial metals suggests that China’s ‘old economy’ remains in recession. Over the balance of 2016, a more pronounced and broader deceleration in China’s domestic demand than already embedded in our central forecasts could amplify pressures for a devaluation of the Chinese currency. After policy interventions, the offshore CNH is priced to weaken by a meagre 2.5-3.0% against the US Dollar over the coming 12 months. Should the Chinese authorities opt for a step adjustment in the currency’s peg to the Dollar, in order to regain room to cut domestic rates without losing reserves, deflationary pressures across the advanced economies could intensify. The goal posts for all Emerging Market FX crosses would also move, and another round of currency weakness ensue. To be clear, our central scenario envisages a fiscal expansion alongside structural reforms, and some monetary easing. We would see interventions on the currency as part of a redesign of the currency peg once the economy has stabilized. But this is admittedly one of the largest risks for asset markets over the year to come. Our EM FX basket trade is designed to hedge some degree of weakness in China and US rates increases, although in such an eventuality the broad EM complex would come under pressure and differentiation strategies are less reliable.
* * *
With all that said, something tells us the best trades for 2016 will be to go short the Yuan, go short Oil, and short TSYs, while doing the opposite of the Top 6 trade recos. We will CIX this "basket" and revisit one year from now.
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 07:50 -0500
Bond Book Value China Core CPI CPI Crude Crude Oil Currency Peg fixed Germany Italy Japan Portugal Recession Risk Premium Yuan
inShare
1
Moments ago, just two days after it was closed out of its Top Trade for 2015 ("to be short EUR/$ via a 1.00 – 0.95 put spread (initially struck at 1.20-1.15 with spot at 1.25), which expires out of the money incurring a loss of premium"), Goldman released its first Top 6 Trades for 2016. For those who can't wait to take the other side of Goldman's clients, and thus the same side of Goldman's prop desk, here they are.
Top Trade #1: Long USD vs short EUR and JPY
Go long USD against an equally-weighted basket of EUR and JPY at 100, with a spot target of 110 and a stop loss of 95. Annual carry is positive at around 1%.
The divergence between the Fed and both the ECB and BoJ will continue to be one of the more durable themes of 2016, in our view. In the US, we believe ongoing improvement in the labour market and resilience in domestic demand will ultimately drive a Fed tightening cycle that is more hawkish than the market is currently discounting. And in Europe and Japan, the fragility of their economic recoveries and lower starting point for inflation mean that the policy stance will remain dovish and will lean against the Fed. Currencies are particularly sensitive to this divergence pressure and, despite the strength we have seen so far, we believe the USD has more room to appreciate vs the EUR and JPY.
Top Trade #2: Long US 10-year ‘Breakeven’ Inflation
Stay long 10-year US break-even inflation (USGGBE10 Index), opened on 10 November 2015 at 1.60%, with an initial target of 2.0% and a stop on a close below 1.40%.
In the US, core CPI inflation is running just below 2%, and the more sticky service price components of the index are trending upwards, contributing more than 200bp to the headline reading. Yet, since the oil price crash in mid-2014, inflation expectations priced by the market have declined all the way out to 10-years. Currently, the inflation swap market prices that headline CPI will not reach 2% (the Fed’s inflation objective) until around 2020. Moreover, the option market assigns a 40% probability to CPI averaging less than 1% over the next 5 years. We think this represents an opportunity to take the other side of too pessimistic expectations by being long 10-year TIPS and short nominal Treasury bonds. Our view is predicated on the idea that continued above-trend growth will lead to a further build-up of wage and price pressures. In our central outlook, the drag to headline inflation from the energy complex should gradually reverse in the coming months.
Top Trade #3: Long MXN and RUB (equally weighted) versus short ZAR and CLP (equally weighted).
Go long an equally-weighted basket of MXN and RUB versus short an equallyweighted basket of ZAR and CLP, with an entry level of 100, total return target of 110 and stops at 95. The expected return, including carry, is around 10%.
This EM relative value trade speaks to a number of our key themes in EM in 2016. It positions for (i) currencies where external balances have adjusted in recent years (RUB) versus those where more progress is required (ZAR); (ii) currencies (MXN and, again, RUB) that are exposed to crude oil where we see limited further downside under our central forecasts versus commodities tied to capital expenditure, such as industrial metals, where we see further downside (CLP, ZAR); and (iii) the short side is relatively more exposed to a slowing in China and the risk of a CNY depreciation. We expect a 10% total return including carry (about 1% on a 12-month basis).
Top Trade #4: Long EM ‘External Demand’ vs. Banks stocks
Go long a basket of 48 non-commodity exporters (GSEMEXTD Index) and short a basket of 50 EM banks stocks (GSEMBNKS Index). We will monitor this trade as the ratio between the two indices, currently at 1.12, with a target of +15% (1.30) and a stop loss of -7% (1.04).
We expect the EM growth engine to remain challenged heading into 2016, facing the headwinds of sustained low commodity prices, a bumpy downshift in China’s growth engine and stretched leverage ratios across the EM complex. We find that equities tend to be the most sensitive asset class to shifts in growth, and suggest adopting long/short exposure tying into diverging growth trajectories.
Specifically, we recommend buying a basket of non-commodity EM exporter stocks and selling a basket of the largest EM bank stocks. This trade reflects an improving external (DM) environment, helped by weaker EM currencies, versus slowing credit growth across EM as US interest rates rise. At the margin, this trade would benefit from left-tail risks in China (either growth or a currency devaluation) given a greater weighting of China equity in the short leg (22% among ‘Banks’ vs. 6% in ‘External Demand’), although the beta of the long/short pair to China risk is quite low. We will monitor the trade through the ratio of the Bloomberg baskets: GSEMEXTD <INDEX> vs. GSEMBNKS <INDEX>.
Top Trade #5: Tighter Spread between Italy and Germany Long Rates
Go long 5-year, 5-year forward Italian sovereign yields vs short 5-year 5-year forward German yields, with an entry level of 160bp, target of 100bp and stop loss of 190bp.
The ECB’s easy interest rate policy and its government bond purchase programme have contributed to a decline in long-dated yields across the EMU bloc and beyond. Yet, the term structure of intra-EMU sovereign spreads has remained quite steep. The difference between 5-year rates in Italy and those in Germany is 50bp. But the same differential widens to over 150bp 5 years into the future. We think that a combination of the extension of the ECB’s QE program into 2017 (removing around 20% of the Italian debt stock from public hands, and fostering an extension of its average life), stronger Italian GDP growth than seen over the past two years and a cut to the deposit rate further into negative territory will encourage a compression of forward Italy-Germany spreads at least to where they were around the announcement of QE in March. A possible shift in the target duration of national central bank purchases and/or a shift away from an ECB capital key allocation of bond purchases to market capitalization would clearly give the trade a bigger boost. In terms of the more closely watched 10-year Italy-Germany spread, our trade recommendation implies a move from the current 105bp to around 75bp. We would look to add Spain and Portugal to the long side of the trade recommendation once uncertainties regarding the respective political scenes have subsided in the New Year.
Top Trade #6: Long large-cap US Banks relative to the overall S&P500
Go long large-cap US Banks through the BKX Index relative to the S&P500, indexed at inception to 100, with a target at 110 and stop loss at 95.
US banks tend to be mildly pro-cyclical and also benefit from a rising longer-dated yield environment (we forecast a steeper US term structure than the forwards discount), as the Fed tightening will lead to a progressive upward revision of expectations on terminal rates, while the ECB and BoJ’s efforts to boost inflation should restore bond premium across major markets. US banks are still relatively well-priced, trading just above book value and with a P/E below that of the overall market, and at about median levels compared with its own past history. Moreover, they remain off their recent highs, unlike other possible implementations of the domestic growth theme in the US stock market.
* * *
And here are the three main risks Goldman believes are associated with its top trades:
Three Main Risks: Bond Yields Up, China and Oil Down
As always, there are idiosyncratic risks surrounding our Top Trade recommendations. There are three ‘common’ or systemic risks to which our set of trades is most exposed:
Bond yields rising faster than we already anticipate: We are about to enter the first tightening cycle since 2004, following seven years of near-zero rates. At the micro level, the instruments through which the Fed intends to tighten policy (IOER, reverse repos, term deposit, run-down of the bond portfolio) and their interaction with regulatory constraints on financial intermediaries, are largely untested. At the macro level, the market-implied expectation of ‘terminal rates’ is unusually depressed (the forwards discount that US policy rates will be barely positive in 5 years’ time), and the term premium is close to zero.
Against this backdrop, the risk of negative shocks originating from the fixed income markets (ranging from liquidity dislocations to a rapid shift in duration risk) is hard to calibrate. We have confidence that the loopback effects for Fed policy (i.e., a shallower path for Fed Funds should financial conditions tighten excessively), against a global backdrop of low interest rates, would ultimately cap the increase in bond yields. But the path to the new equilibrium could be volatile. In terms of our recommended Top Trades, risk factor analysis suggests that our long US banks vs SPX, as well as long USD trade recommendations would stand to benefit from a rising USD yield environment, but historical comparisons may be less relevant given the exceptional starting conditions.
A further fall in commodity prices, in particular crude oil: Our Commodities team remains bearish on industrial metals, and has flagged a downside risks to their forecasts for crude oil in the near term given the high level of inventories. Should this risk materialize, this would drag headline inflation down, masking the acceleration in core CPI; hurt the RUB and MXN; amplify credit risk in US HY in other large oil producers; and, more broadly, increase risk premium across assets. Ultimately, one should not lose sight of the fact that lower energy prices represent, over the medium term, a transfer of savings towards advanced economies. The trades that are most directly exposed to a decline in crude oil are long US inflation and our EM FX basket.
A devaluation of the Chinese Yuan: The ongoing decline in industrial metals suggests that China’s ‘old economy’ remains in recession. Over the balance of 2016, a more pronounced and broader deceleration in China’s domestic demand than already embedded in our central forecasts could amplify pressures for a devaluation of the Chinese currency. After policy interventions, the offshore CNH is priced to weaken by a meagre 2.5-3.0% against the US Dollar over the coming 12 months. Should the Chinese authorities opt for a step adjustment in the currency’s peg to the Dollar, in order to regain room to cut domestic rates without losing reserves, deflationary pressures across the advanced economies could intensify. The goal posts for all Emerging Market FX crosses would also move, and another round of currency weakness ensue. To be clear, our central scenario envisages a fiscal expansion alongside structural reforms, and some monetary easing. We would see interventions on the currency as part of a redesign of the currency peg once the economy has stabilized. But this is admittedly one of the largest risks for asset markets over the year to come. Our EM FX basket trade is designed to hedge some degree of weakness in China and US rates increases, although in such an eventuality the broad EM complex would come under pressure and differentiation strategies are less reliable.
* * *
With all that said, something tells us the best trades for 2016 will be to go short the Yuan, go short Oil, and short TSYs, while doing the opposite of the Top 6 trade recos. We will CIX this "basket" and revisit one year from now.
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Has Deflation Been Defeated?
By: Clif Droke | Thu, Nov 19, 2015 More Sharing ServicesShare
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The last 15 years have been among the most turbulent on record. Since the year 2000, America has experienced two recessions (including a near depression), two stock market crashes, numerous selling panics, two terrorist attacks, and one of the slowest economic recoveries on record.
Just when it appears there might be some light at the end of the tunnel and the consumer is getting his confidence back, the threat of global deflation has appeared and has given them reason to remain cautious. This time around the threat of deflation is coming from overseas, specifically from China.
Thankfully, the near brushes with deflation in the last 15 years have all been averted so far due to the aggressive monetary policy responses of the U.S. central bank. Every time deflation reared its ugly head, the Fed was right there to ensure prices didn't stay low for long. In doing so, however, the Fed has short-circuited the natural process by which the economy is periodically cleansed of economic excess.
The natural cycle of deflation also brings an important adjustment in the cost of living for everyone, especially the savers among us. Those who sacrifice spending in the immediate term are typically rewarded for their thrift by the long-term economic cycle. This time, though, the long-term deflation cycle wasn't allowed to completely run its course. The net result was that savers were essentially punished
for their thrift while debtors were exonerated. It means that the natural economic order was turned on its head by central bankers.
This begs a number of important questions: 1.) Does this mean the cycle inflation and deflation known as the K-wave has been defeated by the Fed? 2.) Or will the natural order eventually reassert its primacy over central bank manipulation? 3.) Has the Fed run out of ammunition for mitigating future economic downturns?
Samuel "Bud" Kress, for whom the long-term Kress cycles are named, taught that when it comes to attempts by government to circumvent the long-term cycles, "Mother Nature and Father Time" always prevail in the end. If Bud were alive today I have no doubt he would maintain the Fed's impotence in ultimately destroying the long-term economic cycle of inflation/deflation. The effects of the long-term economic cycle, he always asserted, must win out.
The long-term cycle of inflation/deflation identified by Kress has a period of 60 years and is roughly analogous to the more widely known Kondratieff Wave (K-wave). According to Kress' numerical system, the cycle was to have bottomed in late 2014. The period between 2000 and 2014 encompassed the deflationary portion of his cycle, and it was during this time that the U.S. economy experienced most of the aforementioned turbulence. During this time frame the closest the U.S. came to the deflationary depression predicted by Kress was in 2007-2008. The Fed stepped in, however, and unleashed record amounts of liquidity in a furious attempt at reversing the deflationary spiral. Its efforts proved successful as depression was averted and prices recovered in the years that followed.
Yet the threat of deflation is ever present and remains a constant bugbear of central bankers, especially in Asia and Europe. The U.S. Fed may have succeeded in forestalling deflation, but the austerity programs pursued by other countries in 2009-2015 are coming back to haunt them. The interrelated global economy so passionately defended by many has revealed its ugly underside. Deflation, it turns out, can be spread abroad even to countries that aren't directly experiencing it at home.
A classic symptom of the deflationary pressure many countries are experiencing is the steep decline in commodity prices. The Reuters/Jefferies Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) is the benchmark price index for the broad commodities market. As the following graph illustrates, the CRB is at its lowest level since the 2008 credit crisis. This depressed level reflects the lack of industrial demand owing to the global economic slowdown.
CRB Weekly Chart
When monetary policy fails, the classic political response to deflationary pressure of this magnitude is to start a war. War is inflationary and always succeeds in boosting commodity prices and industrial production to above normal levels. The military adventures of the U.S. between 2002 and 2011 contributed to an historic boom in commodity prices and likely forestalled the early onset of deflation after the 30-year cycle peaked in late 1999.
There is also a 24-year cycle component of the Kress system which typically harbingers war. The last few times this cycle bottomed it was followed by a major military conflagration involving the major Western countries. The most recent 24-year cycle bottomed in late 2014. It will be interesting to see if any nations pursue this course of action in the years immediately ahead, especially in light of recent developments. Of interest, the Dow Jones U.S. Defense Index (DJUSDN) suggests that perhaps preparations to that effect are in the making.
DJUSDN Weekly Chart
In answer to the question of whether the Fed has succeeded in destroying the long-term deflation cycle, the evidence points to the negative. While there's no denying the mitigating influence that six years of QE had on U.S. equities, the billions of dollars created by the Fed failed to produce any discernible inflation in the broad economy. The fact that interest rates and commodity prices remain near historic lows illustrates this failure.
Essentially, there are two possible outcomes to the global economic slowdown: 1.) Either natural market forces will be allowed to run their course, or 2.) Governments will intervene with a vigorous monetary policy and/or military response. The latter option is the most likely outcome based on history. Although the central banks of China and Europe have already introduced stimulative monetary policies, these policies have so far failed at reversing the deflationary undercurrents still present in the global economy. A much more aggressive stimulus effort will be required to achieve the effects desired by central bankers and bureaucrats. It's questionable whether they have the political will to do this, however.
By far the quickest route to reversing low commodity prices is the warfare route. War lifts prices much faster than even the most aggressive QE could ever do.As undesirable as it is, war unfortunately remains the most likely choice for governments desperate to boost their economies at any cost.
The short answer to the question, "Has deflation been defeated?" is "No," at least not yet. It will either be allowed to finish its course, which is a salutary and beneficial outcome for consumers. Or it will be prematurely circumvented by policy makers, as it was in the U.S., to the detriment of the many and the benefit of the few. History suggests the latter course will be the one most likely chosen.
By: Clif Droke | Thu, Nov 19, 2015 More Sharing ServicesShare
Print Email
The last 15 years have been among the most turbulent on record. Since the year 2000, America has experienced two recessions (including a near depression), two stock market crashes, numerous selling panics, two terrorist attacks, and one of the slowest economic recoveries on record.
Just when it appears there might be some light at the end of the tunnel and the consumer is getting his confidence back, the threat of global deflation has appeared and has given them reason to remain cautious. This time around the threat of deflation is coming from overseas, specifically from China.
Thankfully, the near brushes with deflation in the last 15 years have all been averted so far due to the aggressive monetary policy responses of the U.S. central bank. Every time deflation reared its ugly head, the Fed was right there to ensure prices didn't stay low for long. In doing so, however, the Fed has short-circuited the natural process by which the economy is periodically cleansed of economic excess.
The natural cycle of deflation also brings an important adjustment in the cost of living for everyone, especially the savers among us. Those who sacrifice spending in the immediate term are typically rewarded for their thrift by the long-term economic cycle. This time, though, the long-term deflation cycle wasn't allowed to completely run its course. The net result was that savers were essentially punished
for their thrift while debtors were exonerated. It means that the natural economic order was turned on its head by central bankers.This begs a number of important questions: 1.) Does this mean the cycle inflation and deflation known as the K-wave has been defeated by the Fed? 2.) Or will the natural order eventually reassert its primacy over central bank manipulation? 3.) Has the Fed run out of ammunition for mitigating future economic downturns?
Samuel "Bud" Kress, for whom the long-term Kress cycles are named, taught that when it comes to attempts by government to circumvent the long-term cycles, "Mother Nature and Father Time" always prevail in the end. If Bud were alive today I have no doubt he would maintain the Fed's impotence in ultimately destroying the long-term economic cycle of inflation/deflation. The effects of the long-term economic cycle, he always asserted, must win out.
The long-term cycle of inflation/deflation identified by Kress has a period of 60 years and is roughly analogous to the more widely known Kondratieff Wave (K-wave). According to Kress' numerical system, the cycle was to have bottomed in late 2014. The period between 2000 and 2014 encompassed the deflationary portion of his cycle, and it was during this time that the U.S. economy experienced most of the aforementioned turbulence. During this time frame the closest the U.S. came to the deflationary depression predicted by Kress was in 2007-2008. The Fed stepped in, however, and unleashed record amounts of liquidity in a furious attempt at reversing the deflationary spiral. Its efforts proved successful as depression was averted and prices recovered in the years that followed.
Yet the threat of deflation is ever present and remains a constant bugbear of central bankers, especially in Asia and Europe. The U.S. Fed may have succeeded in forestalling deflation, but the austerity programs pursued by other countries in 2009-2015 are coming back to haunt them. The interrelated global economy so passionately defended by many has revealed its ugly underside. Deflation, it turns out, can be spread abroad even to countries that aren't directly experiencing it at home.
A classic symptom of the deflationary pressure many countries are experiencing is the steep decline in commodity prices. The Reuters/Jefferies Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) is the benchmark price index for the broad commodities market. As the following graph illustrates, the CRB is at its lowest level since the 2008 credit crisis. This depressed level reflects the lack of industrial demand owing to the global economic slowdown.
CRB Weekly Chart
When monetary policy fails, the classic political response to deflationary pressure of this magnitude is to start a war. War is inflationary and always succeeds in boosting commodity prices and industrial production to above normal levels. The military adventures of the U.S. between 2002 and 2011 contributed to an historic boom in commodity prices and likely forestalled the early onset of deflation after the 30-year cycle peaked in late 1999.
There is also a 24-year cycle component of the Kress system which typically harbingers war. The last few times this cycle bottomed it was followed by a major military conflagration involving the major Western countries. The most recent 24-year cycle bottomed in late 2014. It will be interesting to see if any nations pursue this course of action in the years immediately ahead, especially in light of recent developments. Of interest, the Dow Jones U.S. Defense Index (DJUSDN) suggests that perhaps preparations to that effect are in the making.
DJUSDN Weekly Chart
In answer to the question of whether the Fed has succeeded in destroying the long-term deflation cycle, the evidence points to the negative. While there's no denying the mitigating influence that six years of QE had on U.S. equities, the billions of dollars created by the Fed failed to produce any discernible inflation in the broad economy. The fact that interest rates and commodity prices remain near historic lows illustrates this failure.
Essentially, there are two possible outcomes to the global economic slowdown: 1.) Either natural market forces will be allowed to run their course, or 2.) Governments will intervene with a vigorous monetary policy and/or military response. The latter option is the most likely outcome based on history. Although the central banks of China and Europe have already introduced stimulative monetary policies, these policies have so far failed at reversing the deflationary undercurrents still present in the global economy. A much more aggressive stimulus effort will be required to achieve the effects desired by central bankers and bureaucrats. It's questionable whether they have the political will to do this, however.
By far the quickest route to reversing low commodity prices is the warfare route. War lifts prices much faster than even the most aggressive QE could ever do.
As undesirable as it is, war unfortunately remains the most likely choice for governments desperate to boost their economies at any cost.The short answer to the question, "Has deflation been defeated?" is "No," at least not yet. It will either be allowed to finish its course, which is a salutary and beneficial outcome for consumers. Or it will be prematurely circumvented by policy makers, as it was in the U.S., to the detriment of the many and the benefit of the few. History suggests the latter course will be the one most likely chosen.
pfm
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As Of Today, The Baltic Dry Freight Index Has Never Been Lower
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 - 13:01
Having fallen for 20 straight days, crushing the hopes and dreams of the mid-year bounce - and thoroughly breaking down from seasonally positive tendencies - The Baltic Dry Freight Index has collapsed to all-time (back to 1984) record lows. As on shipping broker exclaimed, “This market is looking like a disaster and the rates are a reflection of that. It is looking scary for the market and it doesn’t look like there is going to be any life in the market in the near term.”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 - 13:01
Having fallen for 20 straight days, crushing the hopes and dreams of the mid-year bounce - and thoroughly breaking down from seasonally positive tendencies - The Baltic Dry Freight Index has collapsed to all-time (back to 1984) record lows. As on shipping broker exclaimed, “This market is looking like a disaster and the rates are a reflection of that. It is looking scary for the market and it doesn’t look like there is going to be any life in the market in the near term.”
pfm
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The Party Is Over: Goldman Sees "Limited Equity Upside" As "Bernanke Put" Is Replaced With "Yellen Call"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015 - 04:59
"We see a risk that the ‘Bernanke put’ will gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. The ‘Bernanke put’ captured the intuition that when the risks to growth, monetary policy reacts aggressively to bad news. Now that these risks have receded, we expect the Fed will shift to an easing bias, implying that monetary policy will likely begin to react more aggressively to good news... Rallies in risk sentiment may be met by less accommodative monetary policy – the ‘Yellen call’.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015 - 04:59
"We see a risk that the ‘Bernanke put’ will gradually be replaced by the ‘Yellen call’. The ‘Bernanke put’ captured the intuition that when the risks to growth, monetary policy reacts aggressively to bad news. Now that these risks have receded, we expect the Fed will shift to an easing bias, implying that monetary policy will likely begin to react more aggressively to good news... Rallies in risk sentiment may be met by less accommodative monetary policy – the ‘Yellen call’.
pfm
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marietto.........per tenere un bund 2Y si perde lo 0,4%.........tutto normale no? meglio sotto il letto..........
German Bunds Give Draghi The Finger: 2-Year Hits Record Negative Low -0.39%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015 - 04:18
While the initial EUR response was as expected, dropping about 30 pips (but already rebounding on concerns that the Draghi bazooka may truly be empty this time - after all what else can he surprise with as CA's Valentin Marinov said), German Bunds, especially the short-end, were quick to give Mario Draghi the middle finger and the 2Y has dropped to a fresh record low of -0.389%, because all they heard was that the ECB will monetize even more debt.
COMMENTS: 8 5.232 READS
Tyler Durden's picture
Euro Tumbles As Draghi Says "ECB Will Do What It Must To Raise Inflation" But Drop May Not Last
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015 - 03:52
Yesterday, there was pent up expectation that the ECB's latest minutes, by being structurally dovish and thus the opposite of the Fed's own minutes, would unleash another round of EUR weakness. This did not happen, and instead not only did the EUR jump during the day, but the USD saw an unexpected round of all day weakness. Many were surprised by this response. It turns out Mario Draghi was merely biding his time, and in a speech released moments ago, titled "Monetary Policy: Past, Present and Future" delivered at the European Banking Congress, Draghi pulled another "whatever it takes" card, and promptly sent the Euro currency reeling, if only for the time being.
COMMENTS: 9 6.828 READS
meglio sotto il letto..........German Bunds Give Draghi The Finger: 2-Year Hits Record Negative Low -0.39%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015 - 04:18
While the initial EUR response was as expected, dropping about 30 pips (but already rebounding on concerns that the Draghi bazooka may truly be empty this time - after all what else can he surprise with as CA's Valentin Marinov said), German Bunds, especially the short-end, were quick to give Mario Draghi the middle finger and the 2Y has dropped to a fresh record low of -0.389%, because all they heard was that the ECB will monetize even more debt.
COMMENTS: 8 5.232 READS
Tyler Durden's picture
Euro Tumbles As Draghi Says "ECB Will Do What It Must To Raise Inflation" But Drop May Not Last
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015 - 03:52
Yesterday, there was pent up expectation that the ECB's latest minutes, by being structurally dovish and thus the opposite of the Fed's own minutes, would unleash another round of EUR weakness. This did not happen, and instead not only did the EUR jump during the day, but the USD saw an unexpected round of all day weakness. Many were surprised by this response. It turns out Mario Draghi was merely biding his time, and in a speech released moments ago, titled "Monetary Policy: Past, Present and Future" delivered at the European Banking Congress, Draghi pulled another "whatever it takes" card, and promptly sent the Euro currency reeling, if only for the time being.
COMMENTS: 9 6.828 READS
vogliono da sto pover uomo?