Cottle:
WARNING: DON’T BE A SUCKER!
Now and then, in certain situations, (for example when a bio-tech
company is expecting a decision from the FDA) a stock may experience
a large move, and implied volatility explodes. This creates what looks
like an opportunity, but one can lose a lot of money in these sucker plays.
Here is a common scenario; a stock that normally has an implied
volatility of, for example 30, explodes in anticipation of FDA approval.
The front month implied volatility increases to 100% and deferred
months only go up to 60%. The sucker, using a limited risk, long time
spread, buys the 60% volatility in the back-month and shorts the 100%
volatility in the front-month hoping to clean up on the correction. The
correction comes and both months come back down to say 40%. The
sucker thinks that because his shorts came down 60% and his longs only
came down 20% that he or she is a huge winner. WRONG! The vega of
the deferred longs are so much greater that they represent more money
per percentage point of implied volatility than the front month options
vega does. For example, front month vega is .05 per one percentage
point in implied volatility change while the deferred month’s vega is .30.
When the front month corrects by 40% it means that the option drops
$2.00 (40 x .05). The back month however, although correcting the
lesser amount of 20% volatility, represents $6.00 (20 x .30), losing $4.00
per spread. The poor sucker is bewildered and rarely understands where
the damage came from. It works like long-term interest rates versus
short-term rates changing. A 1% fluctuation in 30-year bonds is huge
while a 1% fluctuation in 30-day T-Bills is almost like nothing. Bottom
Line:
Volatility is not Money!
C
ps: DZ, mettilo in
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