(Washington Post) -- FOUR MONTHS after a failed U.S.-backed putsch against
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, his regime has hunkered down, betting
that it can outlast its domestic and foreign opponents. For the moment, at
least, it seems to have the upper hand.
Having broken off negotiations with opposition leaders over a new election
last month, Mr. Maduro last Monday signed an ersatz deal with minor parties
that he may use to undermine the opposition-controlled National Assembly. He
has partially liberalized the economy, reducing the inflation rate from seven
to six digits and causing food and other consumer goods to reappear in some
stores. And he has strengthened ties with Colombian guerrilla movements and
deployed 150,000 troops to the border, seeking to intimidate a country that,
along with the Trump administration, has pushed hardest for regime change in
Caracas.
This month, prompted by Colombia and the United States, the signatories to a
1947 inter-American defense pact known as the Rio Treaty agreed to invoke it
because of the threat posed by Venezuela to its neighbors. Its 19 members are
expected to meet at the United Nations later this week to consider more steps
to pressure the Maduro regime; the treaty provides for actions ranging from
diplomatic sanctions to armed intervention.
Neither the United States nor Venezuela's neighbors support military action,
so barring direct aggression by Venezuela or the Colombian groups now based on
its territory, that's unlikely to be a means for toppling the regime.
U.S.
officials still hope for an internal military rebellion against Mr. Maduro,
but there is no sign of one — and the extensive Cuban intelligence apparatus
in the barracks is dedicated to rooting out would-be rebels.
The
big losers in this stalemate are ordinary Venezuelans, who continue to
suffer from an extraordinary humanitarian crisis. Those who cannot pay $14 for
a box of imported cornflakes still struggle to find food. According to the
website Caracas Chronicles, 80 percent of health clinics have closed. Some
5,000 people a day flee the country, adding to the more than 4 million who
have already left. But nearby countries, including Ecuador, Chile and Trinidad
and Tobago, are taking steps to curtail entry by Venezuelans. T
he Trump
administration, despite its anti-Maduro rhetoric, has not granted protected
status to Venezuelans who have reached the United States.
U.S. strategy amounts to slowly increasing sanctions while trying to persuade
European and Latin American governments to join in. It's betting that the
regime lacks the resources to survive. Venezuelan oil production, having
dropped 69 percent in two years, is down to just over 700,000 barrels a day —
and half a million of those go to China and Russia to repay debts. Gold
reserves have dwindled to $4.2 billion, from $19 billion in 2011, according to
Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital Markets. Since it has defaulted on $25 billion
in debt, Venezuela is unable to borrow.
Can the Maduro government survive this squeeze? The Trump administration
thinks not, while Mr. Maduro is guessing he can, at least until the next
U.S. election. Meanwhile, Venezuelans starve.
Copyright 2019 The Washington Post
caro gioxx, lovebond et altri... che venga rimosso maduro. Tutti i dittatori macchiati di crimini contro l umanità accerchiati dal mondo intero come maduro in questo momento non sono durati molto.... ( Ceausescu, Tito ecc)
