Venezuela e PDVSA (Vol.172)
- Creatore Discussione Aran2
- Data di inizio
- Stato
StormShadow
SnakeEyes
- Registrato
- 24/3/21
- Messaggi
- 2.688
- Punti reazioni
- 3.108
CARACAS/WASHINGTON/HOUSTON, 28 novembre (Reuters) - Il governo venezuelano potrebbe accogliere gli appelli dei politici dell'opposizione che cercano di rimuovere i divieti che impediscono loro di accedere a incarichi pubblici e di avanzare in tribunale, come un modo per soddisfare parzialmente le richieste degli Stati Uniti prima di una scadenza legata a allentato le sanzioni, hanno detto fonti a Reuters.
A ottobre gli Stati Uniti hanno annunciato una riduzione di sei mesi di alcune sanzioni nel settore petrolifero e hanno revocato il divieto di negoziazione di obbligazioni in cambio di un accordo sulle elezioni del 2024 tra il governo del presidente Nicolas Maduro e l’opposizione.
Ci sono deliberazioni in corso all’interno dell’amministrazione Biden – che ha subito pressioni da parte dei repubblicani per ripristinare le sanzioni – e una decisione dipenderà da cosa, se non altro, farà Maduro entro giovedì, ha detto una fonte di Washington.
Altre fonti erano scettiche riguardo ad una risposta immediata da parte degli Stati Uniti e prevedevano che una reazione potesse arrivare settimane dopo.
Due fonti dell'opposizione e un'altra a conoscenza della questione hanno affermato che il governo Maduro potrebbe consentire progressi sui ricorsi al Tribunale Supremo di Giustizia.
allora lo fanno..... tempo al tempo
Rokerduck
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 23/6/12
- Messaggi
- 1.198
- Punti reazioni
- 102
salve ragazzi, ciao Amgone e grazie di avermi ricordato. sono ancora dentro con tutto il malloppo , vi leggo sempre e ...spero!
forza e coraggio.
StormShadow
SnakeEyes
- Registrato
- 24/3/21
- Messaggi
- 2.688
- Punti reazioni
- 3.108
ciao,
è molto più di una speranza ..... adesso
Rokerduck
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 23/6/12
- Messaggi
- 1.198
- Punti reazioni
- 102
e allora bisogna incrementare...
dionesofista
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 7/11/07
- Messaggi
- 119
- Punti reazioni
- 35
Tutto sta procedendo secondo ragione e prassi diplomatica consolidata. Se non ci saranno sorprese è ipotizzabile che entro il prossimo semestre 2024 la ristrutturazione sarà ben avviata.
StormShadow
SnakeEyes
- Registrato
- 24/3/21
- Messaggi
- 2.688
- Punti reazioni
- 3.108
non scriverlo ai cubanisti dell'altro forum, che ti bannano in maniera arbitraria
StormShadow
SnakeEyes
- Registrato
- 24/3/21
- Messaggi
- 2.688
- Punti reazioni
- 3.108
e come? se riesci compri briciole....e allora bisogna incrementare...
e quando lo permetteranno liberamente , saranno swappati e chissà che prezzi alti avranno
ma io sono apposto
alby$
Lattepiù drinker!
- Registrato
- 17/9/10
- Messaggi
- 9.470
- Punti reazioni
- 2.184
Ho preso vari ban di là, sono più cerebrolesi loro di uno che lo é davvero.non scriverlo ai cubanisti dell'altro forum, che ti bannano in maniera arbitraria
A quotazioni sui 35 ricomincerò a scrivere
spiccioli60
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 28/10/09
- Messaggi
- 5.367
- Punti reazioni
- 217
A
Ahahah
Dart-Fener
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 19/6/17
- Messaggi
- 13.911
- Punti reazioni
- 1.175
alby$
Lattepiù drinker!
- Registrato
- 17/9/10
- Messaggi
- 9.470
- Punti reazioni
- 2.184
Carib
rerum cognoscere causas
- Registrato
- 1/12/04
- Messaggi
- 20.775
- Punti reazioni
- 4.830
La scelta di incrementare la posizione e' ovviamente soggettiva e resta relativamente rischiosa.
Ma e' relativamente facile da concretizzare, per chi vuole, ovviamente avendo dollari cash disponibili a sufficienza.
la tesi che per operare occorrera' attendere una ipotetica futura ristrutturazione e' semplicemente infondata, nel mondo reale.
Carib
rerum cognoscere causas
- Registrato
- 1/12/04
- Messaggi
- 20.775
- Punti reazioni
- 4.830
piedrahita
Investors are expecting a restructuring of $60 billion in unpaid debt of the Republic of Venezuela and PDVSA, but for many this process seems distant and complicated. Analysts affirm that it can only be executed after the presidential elections scheduled for 2024 and which result in a political change in the country. Investment advisor Jorge Piedrahita argues that this negotiation could take place up to three years after the installation of a new government and will only be successful if it is accompanied by a significant payment discount.
The lifting of the prohibition to negotiate in the secondary market of the United States, the external debt bonds of Venezuela and of the state-owned oil company PDVSA, was considered as the most important point in the relaxation of the financial sanctions of the government of Joe Biden. After a series of licenses issued last October, the one referring to Venezuelan securities does not have a term of six months, which contributed to the fact that investors began to negotiate in an important way the papers, generating a rise in their price. Of course, the expectation of all this is that a restructuring will be carried out, but according to analysts consulted, this plan could take some time to arrive.
After the US Treasury Department modified two licenses to allow the negotiation of Venezuelan debt bonds, these have more than doubled their prices. Venezuela's 2018 issue rose 17 cents to $8.75, while Petroleos de Venezuela's 2020 bond rose 13 cents to $65.
Bloomberg also recently noted that sovereign notes maturing in 2027 now cost around 18 cents on the dollar from 10 cents where they were during the trade ban. Meanwhile, Pdvsa bonds maturing in 2026 rose almost five cents to $11.5 in the same period.
The country's debt has traded at a small fraction of its face value following the 2017 default on $60 billion in debt and, subsequent restrictions imposed on secondary trading that kept U.S. investors out of this market. Prices plummeted further in 2019, when JPMorgan ejected Venezuelan securities from its emerging markets index. These papers are now expected to progressively return to the index which would help improve its performance.
Investors are expecting a restructuring for those $60 billion in unpaid debt since 2017, but for many this negotiation could be complicated. Others consulted affirm that it can only be executed after the presidential elections scheduled for 2024 and which result in a political change in the country.
Jorge Piedrahita, financial expert and investment advisor of Fondo Copernico, adds that a consensual renegotiation of the Venezuelan foreign public debt "is the only thing that would save Citgo Petroleum" from being sold to cover the expropriation debts of several companies that sued the country in U.S. courts.
He also pointed out that a successful restructuring of the Venezuelan debt will require a reduction of the money owed by both the Republic and Petróleos de Venezuela, in order to facilitate negotiations. He maintained that this discount could reach up to 80% of the total debt, a very important figure that could mean losses for the creditor, but which would be the option to recover some of the investment and settle the operation.
"There must be a significant write-off, otherwise we would have a country enslaved to pay its debt. We must remember that the debt is almost three times the Venezuelan gross domestic product", which Piedrahita estimates at $90 billion.
He considers that the elimination of the restrictions on the purchase and sale of bonds in the secondary market is permanent, that is to say, it is a decision that will not change. Representatives of the US government have indicated that they may revert the easing of the sanctions, if the ruler Nicolás Maduro does not comply with the Barbados agreement subscribed with the Venezuelan opposition. To do so, he has until this coming Thursday, November 30.
Piedrahita pointed out that the purchase volumes of bonds were important, due to the fact that many holders who were exhausted of waiting for a resolution with the Venezuelan debt wanted to get out of them and, others who preferred to have these papers on hand because they see it as an opportunity, that is to say, there was a market with enough liquidity.
"The fact that the license on the bonds does not have a specific period of validity generated a jump in the price. This was possible because there was demand from a new group of buyers who were restricted to do so and, then as this is in a context in which it is expected that this change in the sanctions regime will allow an increase in Venezuela's oil and gas revenues, it allows them to project that the country's GDP will be higher than expected, so the recovery value should be higher as well," he said.
Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group recently indicated in a report that "the Venezuelan debt restructuring will be a complicated process. It will be lengthy and plagued by multiple political and economic obstacles. There is a wide range of financial instruments in default, subject to different legal and economic conditions".
Eurasia Group's arguments are based on the fact that they see it as unlikely that the sanctions limiting debt issuance in the primary market will be lifted until after the presidential elections, "at the earliest, which points to a restructuring not occurring until 2025".
It will also depend on the holding of "a sufficiently competitive presidential election and the recognition of the U.S. government".
The consultant stresses that -when the conditions are right- the issuance of new bonds in exchange for the old debt is perfectly possible, even if there are still legal problems to attend to. That is why they highlight the important role that China could play in this matter as an important creditor of Venezuela. They explained that in view of the impossibility of accessing the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which "could complicate the efforts to reach an agreement", the Chinese government could meet the financing needs of Maduro's government.
Jorge Piedrahita agrees that an agreement to restructure the Venezuelan debt could be reached after a political change in the country, but goes much further than Eurasia Group, because his forecast is that it could start three years after 2025 in case a government other than Chavism is elected.
In this regard, he explained that in addition to the political reasons for starting a financial negotiation process, the new authorities would give priority in the short term to other issues related to the social situation of the population, such as the humanitarian crisis, the lack of supplies for health care, the great need to update basic infrastructure, security, reorganization of the economy, a new legal pact that implies reforms of laws, ordering statistics, "and these actions take time".
An article in the English newspaper Financial Times referred on Venezuelan debt that investors consider that the easing of sanctions could pave the way for an eventual restructuring by the authorities in Caracas. It could also allow "Wall Street heavyweights" to dive into the market in the hope of making big profits on bonds that are still trading at very low levels .
"We believe this is the start of a multi-step process ... to reintroduce Venezuela into the financial mainstream," said Nick Lawson, chief executive of London-based Ocean Wall and a holder of Venezuelan bonds since 2021.
"That will likely include increasing Venezuela's oil and natural gas production and exports, reinstatement of the bonds in major emerging market indices, debt settlement negotiations and eventual restructuring," he highlighted.
The report highlighted that among the hedge funds that benefited from the rise of the papers is Lee Robinson's Altana Wealth, which launched a fund to buy Venezuelan debt three years ago. The firm has $75 million invested in sovereign and Pdvsa bonds with a combined face value of nearly $500 million at the end of September, Robinson told .
"There has been a big push on both sides (to improve relations) for more than two years. The Middle East and the Russian attack on Ukraine have perhaps increased the urgency on the part of (the U.S.) and its allies," Robinson said.
Agreement with the IMF? Regarding the easing of sanctions on the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and the state-owned Banco de Venezuela, Jorge Piedrahita considers that this means a reinsertion of the country into the world's financial systems.
In the case of the BCV, he recalled that in the year 2021 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) allocated $650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to member countries, and the Venezuelan nation would be allocated $5 billion. Therefore, the fact that the Central Bank is not a sanctioned entity would open the door to agreements between the Fund's members for this money to be administered during Maduro's administration.
"What happened with the sanctions was much broader than many of us expected and in that sense it was surprising, but we must also remember that the United States was very clear in pointing out that the lack of compliance with the Barbados agreements could retract the previous situation", reiterated the financial expert.
An important point in the Venezuelan debt issue is the country-risk, which remains at a very high level, so there will be no access to international credit as long as the political issue is not resolved.
Investors are expecting a restructuring of $60 billion in unpaid debt of the Republic of Venezuela and PDVSA, but for many this process seems distant and complicated. Analysts affirm that it can only be executed after the presidential elections scheduled for 2024 and which result in a political change in the country. Investment advisor Jorge Piedrahita argues that this negotiation could take place up to three years after the installation of a new government and will only be successful if it is accompanied by a significant payment discount.
The lifting of the prohibition to negotiate in the secondary market of the United States, the external debt bonds of Venezuela and of the state-owned oil company PDVSA, was considered as the most important point in the relaxation of the financial sanctions of the government of Joe Biden. After a series of licenses issued last October, the one referring to Venezuelan securities does not have a term of six months, which contributed to the fact that investors began to negotiate in an important way the papers, generating a rise in their price. Of course, the expectation of all this is that a restructuring will be carried out, but according to analysts consulted, this plan could take some time to arrive.
After the US Treasury Department modified two licenses to allow the negotiation of Venezuelan debt bonds, these have more than doubled their prices. Venezuela's 2018 issue rose 17 cents to $8.75, while Petroleos de Venezuela's 2020 bond rose 13 cents to $65.
Bloomberg also recently noted that sovereign notes maturing in 2027 now cost around 18 cents on the dollar from 10 cents where they were during the trade ban. Meanwhile, Pdvsa bonds maturing in 2026 rose almost five cents to $11.5 in the same period.
The country's debt has traded at a small fraction of its face value following the 2017 default on $60 billion in debt and, subsequent restrictions imposed on secondary trading that kept U.S. investors out of this market. Prices plummeted further in 2019, when JPMorgan ejected Venezuelan securities from its emerging markets index. These papers are now expected to progressively return to the index which would help improve its performance.
Investors are expecting a restructuring for those $60 billion in unpaid debt since 2017, but for many this negotiation could be complicated. Others consulted affirm that it can only be executed after the presidential elections scheduled for 2024 and which result in a political change in the country.
Jorge Piedrahita, financial expert and investment advisor of Fondo Copernico, adds that a consensual renegotiation of the Venezuelan foreign public debt "is the only thing that would save Citgo Petroleum" from being sold to cover the expropriation debts of several companies that sued the country in U.S. courts.
He also pointed out that a successful restructuring of the Venezuelan debt will require a reduction of the money owed by both the Republic and Petróleos de Venezuela, in order to facilitate negotiations. He maintained that this discount could reach up to 80% of the total debt, a very important figure that could mean losses for the creditor, but which would be the option to recover some of the investment and settle the operation.
"There must be a significant write-off, otherwise we would have a country enslaved to pay its debt. We must remember that the debt is almost three times the Venezuelan gross domestic product", which Piedrahita estimates at $90 billion.
He considers that the elimination of the restrictions on the purchase and sale of bonds in the secondary market is permanent, that is to say, it is a decision that will not change. Representatives of the US government have indicated that they may revert the easing of the sanctions, if the ruler Nicolás Maduro does not comply with the Barbados agreement subscribed with the Venezuelan opposition. To do so, he has until this coming Thursday, November 30.
Piedrahita pointed out that the purchase volumes of bonds were important, due to the fact that many holders who were exhausted of waiting for a resolution with the Venezuelan debt wanted to get out of them and, others who preferred to have these papers on hand because they see it as an opportunity, that is to say, there was a market with enough liquidity.
"The fact that the license on the bonds does not have a specific period of validity generated a jump in the price. This was possible because there was demand from a new group of buyers who were restricted to do so and, then as this is in a context in which it is expected that this change in the sanctions regime will allow an increase in Venezuela's oil and gas revenues, it allows them to project that the country's GDP will be higher than expected, so the recovery value should be higher as well," he said.
Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group recently indicated in a report that "the Venezuelan debt restructuring will be a complicated process. It will be lengthy and plagued by multiple political and economic obstacles. There is a wide range of financial instruments in default, subject to different legal and economic conditions".
Eurasia Group's arguments are based on the fact that they see it as unlikely that the sanctions limiting debt issuance in the primary market will be lifted until after the presidential elections, "at the earliest, which points to a restructuring not occurring until 2025".
It will also depend on the holding of "a sufficiently competitive presidential election and the recognition of the U.S. government".
The consultant stresses that -when the conditions are right- the issuance of new bonds in exchange for the old debt is perfectly possible, even if there are still legal problems to attend to. That is why they highlight the important role that China could play in this matter as an important creditor of Venezuela. They explained that in view of the impossibility of accessing the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which "could complicate the efforts to reach an agreement", the Chinese government could meet the financing needs of Maduro's government.
Jorge Piedrahita agrees that an agreement to restructure the Venezuelan debt could be reached after a political change in the country, but goes much further than Eurasia Group, because his forecast is that it could start three years after 2025 in case a government other than Chavism is elected.
In this regard, he explained that in addition to the political reasons for starting a financial negotiation process, the new authorities would give priority in the short term to other issues related to the social situation of the population, such as the humanitarian crisis, the lack of supplies for health care, the great need to update basic infrastructure, security, reorganization of the economy, a new legal pact that implies reforms of laws, ordering statistics, "and these actions take time".
An article in the English newspaper Financial Times referred on Venezuelan debt that investors consider that the easing of sanctions could pave the way for an eventual restructuring by the authorities in Caracas. It could also allow "Wall Street heavyweights" to dive into the market in the hope of making big profits on bonds that are still trading at very low levels .
"We believe this is the start of a multi-step process ... to reintroduce Venezuela into the financial mainstream," said Nick Lawson, chief executive of London-based Ocean Wall and a holder of Venezuelan bonds since 2021.
"That will likely include increasing Venezuela's oil and natural gas production and exports, reinstatement of the bonds in major emerging market indices, debt settlement negotiations and eventual restructuring," he highlighted.
The report highlighted that among the hedge funds that benefited from the rise of the papers is Lee Robinson's Altana Wealth, which launched a fund to buy Venezuelan debt three years ago. The firm has $75 million invested in sovereign and Pdvsa bonds with a combined face value of nearly $500 million at the end of September, Robinson told .
"There has been a big push on both sides (to improve relations) for more than two years. The Middle East and the Russian attack on Ukraine have perhaps increased the urgency on the part of (the U.S.) and its allies," Robinson said.
Agreement with the IMF? Regarding the easing of sanctions on the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and the state-owned Banco de Venezuela, Jorge Piedrahita considers that this means a reinsertion of the country into the world's financial systems.
In the case of the BCV, he recalled that in the year 2021 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) allocated $650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to member countries, and the Venezuelan nation would be allocated $5 billion. Therefore, the fact that the Central Bank is not a sanctioned entity would open the door to agreements between the Fund's members for this money to be administered during Maduro's administration.
"What happened with the sanctions was much broader than many of us expected and in that sense it was surprising, but we must also remember that the United States was very clear in pointing out that the lack of compliance with the Barbados agreements could retract the previous situation", reiterated the financial expert.
An important point in the Venezuelan debt issue is the country-risk, which remains at a very high level, so there will be no access to international credit as long as the political issue is not resolved.
La Sibilla $
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 25/10/23
- Messaggi
- 1.432
- Punti reazioni
- 2.114
Bravissimo viva gli ADV
Dart-Fener
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 19/6/17
- Messaggi
- 13.911
- Punti reazioni
- 1.175
banca sella 27 OTC
denaro 18.30
lettera 19.75
sono in vendita a 19.60
denaro 18.30
lettera 19.75
sono in vendita a 19.60
La Sibilla $
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 25/10/23
- Messaggi
- 1.432
- Punti reazioni
- 2.114
Banca Invest 19,02 VVV 27
jul73
Nuovo Utente
- Registrato
- 3/5/13
- Messaggi
- 691
- Punti reazioni
- 51
faccio un paio di domande da ignorante:
ho visto che le Venezuela 2027 - US922646AS37 - stanno scambiando sulla Borsa di Francoforte.
io ne ho una piccola quantità su Directa, borsa EuroTLX
ho visto che le Venezuela 2027 - US922646AS37 - stanno scambiando sulla Borsa di Francoforte.
io ne ho una piccola quantità su Directa, borsa EuroTLX
- Posso chiedere a Directa di immettermi un ordine, o migrarmi il titolo su altra borsa, o vendere OTC?
- per coloro che stanno negoziando a Francoforte, come ci si regola con il rateo cedolare?
- Stato