Da Moody's:
NEWS AND ANALYSIS BANKS
Banca Carige’s new business plan is ambitious, but the lack of critical
detail is credit negative
Originally published on 28 February 2019
On 27 February, Banca Carige S.p.A. (Carige, Caa1/Caa3 direction uncertain, ca1
) disclosed a new business plan to rebuild the bank’s
long-term viability by restoring its capital base, disposing of a large share of its nonperforming loans (NPLs) over the next quarters and
finding a partner for a business combination. Although the capital increase and NPL target are meaningful, the bank’s action plan does
not provide critical details about how the bank will achieve these objectives, a credit negative.
Carige said that it needs to launch a €630 million capital increase by June 2019 to restore its creditworthiness, absorb a far-reaching
clean-up of its loan portfolio, and help develop its franchise. But in our view, executing the capital increase will be challenging.
In December 2018, Carige failed to raise equity that was intended to reimburse €318.2 million of bridge financing the bank had
obtained in the form of subordinated debt (Tier 2 securities) underwritten by the Voluntary Intervention Scheme (VIS) of the Italian
Interbank Deposit Protection Fund. The support in the form of the Tier 2 securities, which was necessary for Carige to comply with
capital requirements, carries a high cost (coupon of 16 %), hence the need for Carige to work out a capital increase as soon as possible.
The capital increase of €400 million, which was rejected by the bank's shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting on 22
December 2018, also triggered the resignation of a majority of the bank's board members. The European Central Bank on 2 January
2019 then decided to place Carige under special administration and tasked the administrators with finding a partner for a business
combination that will address the bank's long-term viability. Five days later, the Italian government approved a law decree that
granted state guarantees on new liabilities issued by Carige of up to €3 billion and set aside €1 billion for a potential precautionary
recapitalization.2
In case the contemplated capital increase (€630 million) is completed, its proceeds would be first used to repay the Tier 2 securities
held by the VIS and Carige's own funds would rise €310 million.
Carige’s ability to complete the announced capital increase through private means is not assured given that the amount the bank aims
to raise largely exceeds the €400 million it failed to raise in December 2018. Other challenges include difficult and volatile economic
conditions in Italy, the bank's need to materially reduce its stock of problem loans, which accounted for a high 22% of gross loans at
the end of 2018, and the challenges involved with restoring of a weakened franchise.
That said, Carige announced that the state-owned company Società per la Gestione delle Attività (SGA) had agreed to buy €2 billion
of gross problem loans, a scenario contingent upon the completion of a business combination. Such a disposal would reduce the bank's
problem-loan ratio to 6.3%, and the transaction would have an estimated cost of €120 million
As a last resort, the Italian government might need to use the €1 billion set aside for a potential precautionary recapitalization.
20 4 March 2019 Credit Outlook: 4 March 2019
Endnotes
1 The bank ratings shown in this report are Carige’s long-term deposit rating, issuer rating and Baseline Credit Assessment.
2 See Moody's places Banca Carige's long-term ratings under review, direction uncertain, 11 January 2019.
Fabio Iannò, VP-Sr Credit Officer
Moody’s Investors Service
fabio.ianno@moodys.com
+33.1.5330.3356
Alain Laurin, Associate Managing Director
Moody’s Investors Service
alain.laurin@moodys.com
+33.1.5330.1059
Nick Hill, MD-Banking
Moody’s Investors Service
nick.hill@moodys.c