May 19, 2010, 12:04 AM EDT
By Shiyin Chen
May 19 -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group Inc. cut profit and share-price estimates for Chinese property companies, citing a government clampdown on speculation to avoid asset bubbles.
Goldman Sachs, ranked second for Asian property coverage by Institutional Investor magazine, lowered its 2010 net income estimates by an average 13 percent and reduced earnings forecasts for the next two years by 25 percent, analysts led by Yi Wang wrote in a report today. Credit Suisse pared earnings- per-share estimates by as much as 15 percent for 2010 and 20 percent for 2011.
The MSCI China Real Estate Index’s 16 companies have slumped an average 23 percent this year as the central bank raised bank reserve requirements three times, while the government raised down payment requirements for second homes and banned loans for third homes. The slump in property stocks outpaced the 9.5 percent drop in the broader MSCI China Index that tracks mostly Hong Kong-traded stocks. The brokerages also slashed share-price targets by as much as 57 percent.
“In view of the revised tightening measures since mid- April, we turn more cautious on the property sector, particularly on transaction volumes for the remainder of the year,” Credit Suisse analysts led by Jinsong Du wrote in a report yesterday.
Falling Transactions
Property transaction volumes will tumble by about 15 percent on average this year from 2009, the brokerage estimated, keeping an earlier forecast that prices will slump 30 percent from current levels. There are signs the government may “adopt a more cautious stance on tightening” amid the European sovereign-debt crisis, according to the report.
China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has slid 21 percent this year, Asia’s worst performer.
Goldman Sachs predicted volumes will fall 40 percent between May and December from a year earlier, while home prices will fall as much as 30 percent from current levels, according to a note today.
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