sand1975
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Ti sfugge che l'essere conto il lockdown non implica l'essere contro l'uso di mascherine
| L'HuffPost[/url]
Manifestazione Germania anti lockdown:
Coronavirus VS economia globale
- Creatore Discussione cicci82
- Data di inizio
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Ecco la 70° Edizione del settimanale "Le opportunità di Borsa" dedicato ai consulenti finanziari ed esperti di borsa.
Settimana di risk-off per i principali indici per via dei timori legati all’inflazione persistente e alle prospettive di tassi ancora elevati a lungo. Anche se il report di oggi sull’indice core Pce, la misura molto gradita alla Fed per valutare l’inflazione, ha mostrato un parziale raffreddamento, o quantomeno una stabilità. L’indice ha riportato una crescita su base annua del 2,8%, in linea con le previsioni degli analisti e con la rilevazione del mese precedente. Questo dovrebbe lasciare più margine di manovra alla Fed per abbassare i tassi di interesse nel corso del 2024. Passando al Vecchio Continente, il report sull’inflazione dell’Eurozona ha mostrato un indice al 2,6%, oltre il 2,5% atteso e in accelerazione rispetto al 2,4% precedente.
Per continuare a leggere visita il link
Manifestazione Germania anti lockdown:
whymustwedie
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Repetita iuvant: l'essere contro il lockdown non implica l'essere contro l'uso di mascherine.
Dei minchioni della manifestazione in Germania mi interessa poco, c'è un popolo contro il lockdown che non va a manifestare.
Così espresso è più charo quello che voglio dire?
sand1975
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Il lockdown è finito, te ne sei accorto?
Inoltre se hai letto l'esperienza di antonio.bronsa non sono solo i 4 minchioni in manifestazione che non usa la mascherina.
whymustwedie
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whymustwedie
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Ripropongo la mia stima del 19 aprile.
Sta arrivando la recessione, vendete tutto sul mercato azionario (vol. 4)
Ora siamo a 285k
Sta arrivando la recessione, vendete tutto sul mercato azionario (vol. 4)
Ora siamo a 285k
whymustwedie
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Io pur essendo un minchio.ne (
) uso la mascherina come prescritto per legge, ma se passeggiando in campagna non c'è nessuno nel raggio di 20 mt tengo la mascherina sul mento.In ufficio già la indosso per 9 ore mi sembra abbastanza.
Ringrazio @antonio.bronsa per la testimonianza, l'avevo letto, ma non fa una statistica globale. E per fortuna che ci sono stati 30 gg di martellamento con ansiogenicità mediatica. Ma non fanno più le multe ?
sand1975
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Contando che secondo molti esperti non solo italiani ma della stessa amministrazione Trump e Merkel il contagio durerà 18/24 mesi mi sembra un pò ottimistico arrivare a 500k visto che siamo a 285, anzi è probabile che quelli reali siano già oltre i 500k. C'è sono ancora il 99,9% della popolazione mondiale che non è contagiata.
whymustwedie
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Io mi sono esposto con una stima che vale quel che vale
i numeri li conteremo alla fine.Con mille distinguo.... di, a, da, in, con, su, per, tra, fra covid
Bergamo, le autopsie sui morti per Coronavirus sono un caso - Corriere.it
whymustwedie
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Ringrazio @antonio.bronsa per la testimonianza, l'avevo letto, ma non fa una statistica globale. E per fortuna che ci sono stati 30 gg di martellamento con ansiogenicità mediatica. Ma non fanno più le multe ?
I parlamentari tengono famiglia ....
Coronavirus, le ultime notizie dall’Italia e dal mondo - Corriere.it
whymustwedie
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Questi non li prendi (ancora) su amazon
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Covid, in Usa persi 36,6 milioni di posti di lavoro
Francia, cala a sorpresa la disoccupazione nel 1deg trimestre | Teleborsa.it
Piu che la mancata crescita, sara la disoccupazione il vero problema - Linkiesta.it
Coronavirus, la seconda ondata a Seul colpisce i giovani: il 75% dei nuovi contagiati ha tra 19 e 29 anni - La Stampa - Ultime notizie di cronaca e news dall'Italia e dal mondo
Global report: WHO says Covid-19 'may never go away' and warns of mental health crisis | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian
Francia, cala a sorpresa la disoccupazione nel 1deg trimestre | Teleborsa.it
Piu che la mancata crescita, sara la disoccupazione il vero problema - Linkiesta.it
Coronavirus, la seconda ondata a Seul colpisce i giovani: il 75% dei nuovi contagiati ha tra 19 e 29 anni - La Stampa - Ultime notizie di cronaca e news dall'Italia e dal mondo
Global report: WHO says Covid-19 'may never go away' and warns of mental health crisis | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian
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JUNE 23, 2020
Annie Lowrey
Staff writer at The Atlantic
...
At least four major factors are terrifying economists and weighing on the recovery: the household fiscal cliff, the great business die-off, the state and local budget shortfall, and the lingering health crisis. Three months ago, the pandemic and ensuing shelter-in-place orders caused mass job loss unlike anything in recent American history. A virtual blizzard settled on top of the country and froze everyone in place. Nearly 40 percent of low-wage workers lost their jobs in March. More than 40 million people lost their jobs in March, April, or May.
Faced with this historic catastrophe, the United States marshaled a historic response: Republicans in the White House and Congress, generally hostile to the notion of economic stimulus for low-income households, came together with Democrats to achieve a $2 trillion rescue package, including a $1,200 onetime payment for most adults and $500 for many children, a radical expansion of the unemployment-insurance system to include gig workers, and a $600-a-week bump to unemployment-insurance payouts. It also created a sweeping small-business rescue plan, covering payroll for companies that kept their employees on the books.
The good: This money kept families afloat—at least for the first, intense months of shelter-in-place. New estimates suggest that the congressional rescue plan prevented poverty rates from rising, with many jobless workers seeing their incomes increase during lockdown due to the expanded unemployment-insurance payouts. The bad: It left out roughly 15 million people in immigrant families, many of whom were working essential jobs stocking grocery shelves, delivering takeout, and drawing blood in hospitals. And the ugly: The big helicopter drop was a onetime thing, and the unemployment-insurance expansion was time-limited. Congress designed Uncle Sam’s help to dry up this summer, with the unemployment rate still in the double digits. Democrats and Republicans are negotiating another stimulus bill, but concerns about surging budget deficits are complicating the talks.
That means households are headed for a cliff. But not everyone will be affected by it equally. Rich workers, the ones with do-anywhere office jobs, have remained relatively untouched by job and earnings losses thus far. Wealthy families have seen their stock portfolios rebound to close to where they were in the winter. But poor workers—disproportionately black and Latino workers, as well as younger workers—have borne the heaviest employment and earnings losses. They entered this recession with no wealth cushion, many saddled with heavy rents and heavy debts. Income and job losses for them translate into a loss of demand economy-wide, absent federal intervention.
If and when that federal intervention dries up, millions of families just keeping their head above water will sink, as lost jobs and canceled hours force them to stop paying their rent and go into arrears on their debt payments. Hunger, homelessness, forgotten plans to attend community college, babies growing up in stressed households: These are the stakes. The CBO forecasts that every quarter through the end of 2021, American consumers will buy $300 billion to $370 billion less than they would have if the pandemic had never happened.
This steep decline in consumer spending will hasten mass business failure, the second factor weighing on the economy. The Paycheck Protection Program and other federal initiatives shoved an oxygen mask on many companies. But the PPP was scaled to help businesses through a short, intense disruption, though the economy is expected to remain sluggish for months and months. Moreover, the PPP did not include much aid for businesses with significant nonpayroll overhead costs, such as restaurants in high-cost cities. This means that many businesses will fail, if customers fail to return. Already, an estimated 100,000 small companies have shut permanently.
On top of that, numerous businesses—airlines, restaurants, live-events businesses, hotels, private schools, oil and gas companies—face severe and stubborn slumps. Students are not willing to pay as much for online learning as in-person instruction. Companies are not financing travel to conferences and sales meetings. Concerts and festivals are not expected to restart until scientists develop a coronavirus vaccine. Economists expect that 42 percent of people recently let go will not return to their former employers.
A third factor behind a possible second Great Depression is the budget crisis facing states and cities. The federal government does not have to balance its ledger year to year, and perpetually spends more than it takes in. Yet every state but Vermont and most cities and towns are required to remain in the black. Right now, sales taxes, real-estate-transfer taxes, income taxes, fines and fees—they are all collapsing, leaving local governments with a budget gap expected to total $1 trillion next year. Without help from Washington, this will necessarily mean massive service cuts and job losses: namely, an estimated 5.3 million job losses.
The shrinking of the government at the state and local level has already started, as Congress dithers on providing fiscal aid. Michigan is facing a $3 billion budget gap this year and a $4 billion one next year: It has instituted a work-share plan, asking two in three state employees to accept a partial furlough. In New Jersey, the government has asked 100,000 public workers to move to abbreviated schedules. Schools have already let go more workers than they did during the Great Recession, with nearly 500,000 positions lost.
A fiscal cliff for families. Rolling business failures. A budget crisis for state and local governments. Each is bad enough. Each might be a big-enough headwind to tip the economy into recession alone. But the last element is the true alpha and omega of our worst-case scenario: the catastrophe of the American government’s management of the novel-coronavirus pandemic.
Like many of its peer nations, the United States imposed shelter-in-place and social-distancing measures to curtail the spread of the virus. But it did so late, leading to the unnecessary deaths of tens of thousands of people. And it wasted the time these extreme measures bought, because the government failed to set up a strong test-and-trace regime. Countries including South Korea and New Zealand crushed the coronavirus. The United States merely patted it down. The country is reopening with the disease still spreading and maiming and killing, as several states experience a dramatic surge in caseloads.
Never getting the pandemic under control means never unleashing the economy. Just look at the casinos in Las Vegas: open, yet half-empty. The botched response means millions of parents will need to continue watching their young children instead of committing to work. It means thousands of offices will remain on work-from-home orders, hurting the commercial operations built to support them. It means Americans will avoid doctors’ offices, bars, and sporting events, staying at home and starving local businesses of revenue. It means localities might end up having to return to extreme social-distancing measures over the summer and fall. And it means fear and mistrust: depressed consumer confidence, ruined faith in government, and concerns about the economy’s ability to recover.
The Trump administration has repeatedly argued that there is a trade-off between the country’s economic health and its public health. But economists and physicians have repeatedly argued that that is untrue: Ending the pandemic would have been the single best thing the federal government could have done to preserve the country’s wealth, health, and economic functioning. The Trump administration, in its hubris, obstinacy, and incompetence, failed to do it.
Still, a second Great Depression is not inevitable. All four of these factors, and the many others hurting families and killing Americans, are amenable to policy solutions. Congress could extend unemployment insurance, offer new help to flailing businesses, send monthly cash grants to poor families, offer fiscal relief to the states, and implement a nationwide test-and-trace program. The collapse is over. The rebound is under way. But a terrifying future awaits us, one that does not have to come to pass.
The Second Great Depression - The Atlantic
Coronavirus, OMS: “Il peggio deve ancora venire”
Covid, Oms: “Il peggio deve ancora arrivare” | QuiFinanza
Annie Lowrey
Staff writer at The Atlantic
...
At least four major factors are terrifying economists and weighing on the recovery: the household fiscal cliff, the great business die-off, the state and local budget shortfall, and the lingering health crisis. Three months ago, the pandemic and ensuing shelter-in-place orders caused mass job loss unlike anything in recent American history. A virtual blizzard settled on top of the country and froze everyone in place. Nearly 40 percent of low-wage workers lost their jobs in March. More than 40 million people lost their jobs in March, April, or May.
Faced with this historic catastrophe, the United States marshaled a historic response: Republicans in the White House and Congress, generally hostile to the notion of economic stimulus for low-income households, came together with Democrats to achieve a $2 trillion rescue package, including a $1,200 onetime payment for most adults and $500 for many children, a radical expansion of the unemployment-insurance system to include gig workers, and a $600-a-week bump to unemployment-insurance payouts. It also created a sweeping small-business rescue plan, covering payroll for companies that kept their employees on the books.
The good: This money kept families afloat—at least for the first, intense months of shelter-in-place. New estimates suggest that the congressional rescue plan prevented poverty rates from rising, with many jobless workers seeing their incomes increase during lockdown due to the expanded unemployment-insurance payouts. The bad: It left out roughly 15 million people in immigrant families, many of whom were working essential jobs stocking grocery shelves, delivering takeout, and drawing blood in hospitals. And the ugly: The big helicopter drop was a onetime thing, and the unemployment-insurance expansion was time-limited. Congress designed Uncle Sam’s help to dry up this summer, with the unemployment rate still in the double digits. Democrats and Republicans are negotiating another stimulus bill, but concerns about surging budget deficits are complicating the talks.
That means households are headed for a cliff. But not everyone will be affected by it equally. Rich workers, the ones with do-anywhere office jobs, have remained relatively untouched by job and earnings losses thus far. Wealthy families have seen their stock portfolios rebound to close to where they were in the winter. But poor workers—disproportionately black and Latino workers, as well as younger workers—have borne the heaviest employment and earnings losses. They entered this recession with no wealth cushion, many saddled with heavy rents and heavy debts. Income and job losses for them translate into a loss of demand economy-wide, absent federal intervention.
If and when that federal intervention dries up, millions of families just keeping their head above water will sink, as lost jobs and canceled hours force them to stop paying their rent and go into arrears on their debt payments. Hunger, homelessness, forgotten plans to attend community college, babies growing up in stressed households: These are the stakes. The CBO forecasts that every quarter through the end of 2021, American consumers will buy $300 billion to $370 billion less than they would have if the pandemic had never happened.
This steep decline in consumer spending will hasten mass business failure, the second factor weighing on the economy. The Paycheck Protection Program and other federal initiatives shoved an oxygen mask on many companies. But the PPP was scaled to help businesses through a short, intense disruption, though the economy is expected to remain sluggish for months and months. Moreover, the PPP did not include much aid for businesses with significant nonpayroll overhead costs, such as restaurants in high-cost cities. This means that many businesses will fail, if customers fail to return. Already, an estimated 100,000 small companies have shut permanently.
On top of that, numerous businesses—airlines, restaurants, live-events businesses, hotels, private schools, oil and gas companies—face severe and stubborn slumps. Students are not willing to pay as much for online learning as in-person instruction. Companies are not financing travel to conferences and sales meetings. Concerts and festivals are not expected to restart until scientists develop a coronavirus vaccine. Economists expect that 42 percent of people recently let go will not return to their former employers.
A third factor behind a possible second Great Depression is the budget crisis facing states and cities. The federal government does not have to balance its ledger year to year, and perpetually spends more than it takes in. Yet every state but Vermont and most cities and towns are required to remain in the black. Right now, sales taxes, real-estate-transfer taxes, income taxes, fines and fees—they are all collapsing, leaving local governments with a budget gap expected to total $1 trillion next year. Without help from Washington, this will necessarily mean massive service cuts and job losses: namely, an estimated 5.3 million job losses.
The shrinking of the government at the state and local level has already started, as Congress dithers on providing fiscal aid. Michigan is facing a $3 billion budget gap this year and a $4 billion one next year: It has instituted a work-share plan, asking two in three state employees to accept a partial furlough. In New Jersey, the government has asked 100,000 public workers to move to abbreviated schedules. Schools have already let go more workers than they did during the Great Recession, with nearly 500,000 positions lost.
A fiscal cliff for families. Rolling business failures. A budget crisis for state and local governments. Each is bad enough. Each might be a big-enough headwind to tip the economy into recession alone. But the last element is the true alpha and omega of our worst-case scenario: the catastrophe of the American government’s management of the novel-coronavirus pandemic.
Like many of its peer nations, the United States imposed shelter-in-place and social-distancing measures to curtail the spread of the virus. But it did so late, leading to the unnecessary deaths of tens of thousands of people. And it wasted the time these extreme measures bought, because the government failed to set up a strong test-and-trace regime. Countries including South Korea and New Zealand crushed the coronavirus. The United States merely patted it down. The country is reopening with the disease still spreading and maiming and killing, as several states experience a dramatic surge in caseloads.
Never getting the pandemic under control means never unleashing the economy. Just look at the casinos in Las Vegas: open, yet half-empty. The botched response means millions of parents will need to continue watching their young children instead of committing to work. It means thousands of offices will remain on work-from-home orders, hurting the commercial operations built to support them. It means Americans will avoid doctors’ offices, bars, and sporting events, staying at home and starving local businesses of revenue. It means localities might end up having to return to extreme social-distancing measures over the summer and fall. And it means fear and mistrust: depressed consumer confidence, ruined faith in government, and concerns about the economy’s ability to recover.
The Trump administration has repeatedly argued that there is a trade-off between the country’s economic health and its public health. But economists and physicians have repeatedly argued that that is untrue: Ending the pandemic would have been the single best thing the federal government could have done to preserve the country’s wealth, health, and economic functioning. The Trump administration, in its hubris, obstinacy, and incompetence, failed to do it.
Still, a second Great Depression is not inevitable. All four of these factors, and the many others hurting families and killing Americans, are amenable to policy solutions. Congress could extend unemployment insurance, offer new help to flailing businesses, send monthly cash grants to poor families, offer fiscal relief to the states, and implement a nationwide test-and-trace program. The collapse is over. The rebound is under way. But a terrifying future awaits us, one that does not have to come to pass.
The Second Great Depression - The Atlantic
Coronavirus, OMS: “Il peggio deve ancora venire”
Covid, Oms: “Il peggio deve ancora arrivare” | QuiFinanza
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/an-unstoppable-force-vs.-an-immovable-object-2020-06-29
As this next chart shows, the stock market's rebound and the Fed's balance sheet rise have been in almost perfect harmony. This lockstep behavior even includes the recent local plateau we've been in since mid-June, as the Fed has tapered liquidity and the market took a step back from its upward trajectory:
As this next chart shows, the stock market's rebound and the Fed's balance sheet rise have been in almost perfect harmony. This lockstep behavior even includes the recent local plateau we've been in since mid-June, as the Fed has tapered liquidity and the market took a step back from its upward trajectory:
Allegati
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sand1975
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Quindi un bel pac in va su ftse world della durata di 24/36 mesi per stare "tranquilli"?
