This shows that it expects to make $808 million in EBITDA by the end of 2027. Sot its present post-closing EV of $3.3 billion will be 4 times EBITDA.
Moreover, the next year EBITDA will be $1.62 billion. That puts it at 2 times EV/EBITDA in 2028. Obviously that is too low. By that time the market value would be at least 4 times that amount, or $13 billion in EV, or $14 billion in market cap.
Discounting that back to the present at 10% over 8 years at 46.65% of its $14 billion market cap, or $6.53 billion. This is about 47% above its present $4.45 billion market cap post-merger.
So, in effect, Kensington Capital is worth around 50% more than its present price. And that is just if you value the company at 8 times EV to EBITDA in eight years, discounted back to the present.
If it gets a higher valuation then, like a Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation, the stock is worth much more. For example, if its relationship with Volkswagen takes off even further, or they take on larger clients than expected, then its estimated EBITDA and sales could be higher. That could lead to a higher price as well.