NAVR : trend ottimo
- Creatore Discussione miris
- Data di inizio
Sir Wildman
The White Knight
- Registrato
- 21/6/03
- Messaggi
- 91.119
- Punti reazioni
- 5.094
Ho chiesto l'altro giorno. Tremaui ha parlato di un'acquisizione fatta malino .... vabbeh, forse e' vero....pero' hanno esagerato davvero......... a questi livelli e' regalata.......
Io non ho ancora trovato un motivo valido per giustificare questo crollo ...... se qualcuno mi illumina
Io non ho ancora trovato un motivo valido per giustificare questo crollo ...... se qualcuno mi illumina
trovato questa speigazione del crollo su ragin' bull
Four things:
1. Navarre has been growing sales at 20-25% for about 7 years, but only became profitable doing that about 3 years ago. As a result, there were huge tax-loss carryforwards that are just now being exhausted. The transition from untaxed earnings to taxed, with resulting adjustment in the EPS estimates, has caught some investors who weren't around for the lean years by surprise.
2. Even though they have managed to acquire three companies quite efficiently in recent years, the recent announcement of intent to acquire Funimation, Ltd., seems to have generated some skepticism in the market. At up to $140 million, this is by far the largest acquisition they've ever attempted, and was to have required issuance of a significant number of additional common shares, viewed by some as dilutive because Navarre has not had the opportunity to explain how they plan to leverage their distribution skills in what is essentially a publishing venture. Most short-term shareholders are not fully aware that Navarre has already been successful in the home-entertainment software publishing sector with their previous acquisitions of Encore and BCI Eclipse. On Tuesday of this week, when they filed to withdraw the registration with the SEC and seek sources of funding other than issuing more equity, it was probably seen as a sign of weakness, even though Navarre has never issued long-term debt and certainly has the fundamental strength and credit-worthiness to do so now.
3. One could justify the speculation that Navarre stock has been under a relentless short attack in this period. A local Minneapolis brokerage, Miller Johnson Steichem Kinnard (MMID is "MJSK") initiated coverage of the stock about two months ago with a "sell" rating and a price target of 10 (when it was still in the high teens.) This is in contrast to the other three analysts covering it, who comprised two "strong buys" and one "hold" with targets of up to 23. Todays February short interest from NASDAQ confirms a large increase in the period:
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/asp/short_interest_resp.asp?searchby=Detail&IssueID=17177
4. When the company reported 3rd-quarter earnings on 1-26, it was taken as a two-cent "miss" due to the effect of backing out a one-time tax benefit, and the market focused on the 6% negative surprise after positive surprises in the previous quarters of 54, 128, and 71%, respectively. This was despite the year-over-year comparison that EPS was up to 28 cents from 15, or 87%. Balance-sheet "issues" were seen, an increase in AR, cash at only $5000 on 12-31, and increased inventories, and the company was tight-mouthed in the conference call primarily due to the quiet period imposed by their 1-14 S-3 filing for the secondary offering needed to accomplish the Funimation deal, leading to speculation something more was going on than what really is.
To me, a catalyst for the price-drop was unwittingly furnished by the company, when they sought to raise some further cash by invoking a mandatory warrant exercise provision from an earlier acquisition, the theory for which I laid out here:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077803&tid=navr&sid=7077803&mid=133884
All of this together has created a "perfect storm" scenario that in my opinion has led to the mother of all buying opportunities, which I have been pursuing this week and earlier. I see the stock as really worth between 14 and 18 dollars, and I see it likely to be there in months, not years.
Four things:
1. Navarre has been growing sales at 20-25% for about 7 years, but only became profitable doing that about 3 years ago. As a result, there were huge tax-loss carryforwards that are just now being exhausted. The transition from untaxed earnings to taxed, with resulting adjustment in the EPS estimates, has caught some investors who weren't around for the lean years by surprise.
2. Even though they have managed to acquire three companies quite efficiently in recent years, the recent announcement of intent to acquire Funimation, Ltd., seems to have generated some skepticism in the market. At up to $140 million, this is by far the largest acquisition they've ever attempted, and was to have required issuance of a significant number of additional common shares, viewed by some as dilutive because Navarre has not had the opportunity to explain how they plan to leverage their distribution skills in what is essentially a publishing venture. Most short-term shareholders are not fully aware that Navarre has already been successful in the home-entertainment software publishing sector with their previous acquisitions of Encore and BCI Eclipse. On Tuesday of this week, when they filed to withdraw the registration with the SEC and seek sources of funding other than issuing more equity, it was probably seen as a sign of weakness, even though Navarre has never issued long-term debt and certainly has the fundamental strength and credit-worthiness to do so now.
3. One could justify the speculation that Navarre stock has been under a relentless short attack in this period. A local Minneapolis brokerage, Miller Johnson Steichem Kinnard (MMID is "MJSK") initiated coverage of the stock about two months ago with a "sell" rating and a price target of 10 (when it was still in the high teens.) This is in contrast to the other three analysts covering it, who comprised two "strong buys" and one "hold" with targets of up to 23. Todays February short interest from NASDAQ confirms a large increase in the period:
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/asp/short_interest_resp.asp?searchby=Detail&IssueID=17177
4. When the company reported 3rd-quarter earnings on 1-26, it was taken as a two-cent "miss" due to the effect of backing out a one-time tax benefit, and the market focused on the 6% negative surprise after positive surprises in the previous quarters of 54, 128, and 71%, respectively. This was despite the year-over-year comparison that EPS was up to 28 cents from 15, or 87%. Balance-sheet "issues" were seen, an increase in AR, cash at only $5000 on 12-31, and increased inventories, and the company was tight-mouthed in the conference call primarily due to the quiet period imposed by their 1-14 S-3 filing for the secondary offering needed to accomplish the Funimation deal, leading to speculation something more was going on than what really is.
To me, a catalyst for the price-drop was unwittingly furnished by the company, when they sought to raise some further cash by invoking a mandatory warrant exercise provision from an earlier acquisition, the theory for which I laid out here:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077803&tid=navr&sid=7077803&mid=133884
All of this together has created a "perfect storm" scenario that in my opinion has led to the mother of all buying opportunities, which I have been pursuing this week and earlier. I see the stock as really worth between 14 and 18 dollars, and I see it likely to be there in months, not years.
Sir Wildman
The White Knight
- Registrato
- 21/6/03
- Messaggi
- 91.119
- Punti reazioni
- 5.094
grazie
Sir Wildman
The White Knight
- Registrato
- 21/6/03
- Messaggi
- 91.119
- Punti reazioni
- 5.094
Navarre Corporation Announces $165 Million Financing Commitment
PR Newswire - April 18, 2005 09:00
MINNEAPOLIS, April 18, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Navarre Corporation (Nasdaq: NAVR), a leading publisher and distributor of a broad range of home entertainment and multimedia software products, announced today that it has obtained a fully underwritten financing commitment in the amount of $165 million from GE Commercial Finance. In connection with this commitment, the Company expects to enter into a senior secured credit facility that includes both a six-year $140 million Term Loan B facility and a five-year revolving credit facility for up to $25 million. The commitment provides that both the Term Loan B facility and the revolving credit facility will be secured by a first priority security interest in substantially all of Navarre's assets with expected initial pricing at LIBOR plus 3.25% per year. Each of these facilities would be prepayable at any time, at the Company's option.
The Company expects to draw the Term Loan B facility in its entirety at the closing of these facilities. The revolving credit facility will be available to the Company for its working capital and general corporate needs and it is anticipated that this facility will be undrawn at closing. This commitment is subject to certain conditions, including the negotiation and execution of definitive agreements.
The Company announced that it intends to use the proceeds from the Term Loan B facility to fund the cash portion of the purchase price of the previously-announced FUNimation acquisition and to pay certain costs and expenses incurred in connection with the acquisition and this financing. It is anticipated that the remaining balance of approximately $30 million from this facility would be placed into cash reserves for general corporate purposes as the Company is currently operating without bank debt. The Company expects to close the FUNimation acquisition prior to May 15, 2005.
7.65$ in premarket
sarebbe un possibile breakout ......
da tenere d'occhio ....
PR Newswire - April 18, 2005 09:00
MINNEAPOLIS, April 18, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Navarre Corporation (Nasdaq: NAVR), a leading publisher and distributor of a broad range of home entertainment and multimedia software products, announced today that it has obtained a fully underwritten financing commitment in the amount of $165 million from GE Commercial Finance. In connection with this commitment, the Company expects to enter into a senior secured credit facility that includes both a six-year $140 million Term Loan B facility and a five-year revolving credit facility for up to $25 million. The commitment provides that both the Term Loan B facility and the revolving credit facility will be secured by a first priority security interest in substantially all of Navarre's assets with expected initial pricing at LIBOR plus 3.25% per year. Each of these facilities would be prepayable at any time, at the Company's option.
The Company expects to draw the Term Loan B facility in its entirety at the closing of these facilities. The revolving credit facility will be available to the Company for its working capital and general corporate needs and it is anticipated that this facility will be undrawn at closing. This commitment is subject to certain conditions, including the negotiation and execution of definitive agreements.
The Company announced that it intends to use the proceeds from the Term Loan B facility to fund the cash portion of the purchase price of the previously-announced FUNimation acquisition and to pay certain costs and expenses incurred in connection with the acquisition and this financing. It is anticipated that the remaining balance of approximately $30 million from this facility would be placed into cash reserves for general corporate purposes as the Company is currently operating without bank debt. The Company expects to close the FUNimation acquisition prior to May 15, 2005.
7.65$ in premarket
sarebbe un possibile breakout ......
da tenere d'occhio ....
Sir Wildman
The White Knight
- Registrato
- 21/6/03
- Messaggi
- 91.119
- Punti reazioni
- 5.094
Tremaui, te che sei ben informato come la vedi sta storia......
?
?