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vari elementi tendono a dar l'idea che vi sia la volontà netta di non far fallire pdvsa; mentre inizio a credere che il fallimento sui titoli di stato sia già schedulato; magari subito dopo elezioni, se trovano i soldi per arrivarvi.
D'altra parte mi pare la scelta più ragionevole nel caso in cui effettivamente il governo venezuelano non trovi modo per avere i soldi per pagare sia pdvsa, sia i titoli sovrani, dovendo scegliere...
Prioritizing PDVSA Means High Risk of Selective Default: Nomura
By Christine Jenkins
(Bloomberg) -- Nomura’s base case scenario for Venezuela is a high risk of selective default on the sovereign as officials prioritize PDVSA for as long as possible, Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America Fixed Income at Nomura Securities, writes in research note.
Increasing conviction that PDVSA coupon payments should be released from paying agents after their compliance checks, while there’s been no official or specific notification on the delayed sovereign coupons
More noticeable delays on sovereign coupons, and negotiated settlement with Crystallex shows a strategy to prioritize PDVSA
It’s unusual that PDVSA vs. sovereign price differential has been narrowing to about 4 points from an average 8 points, and confirmation of PDVSA coupon payments should widen this differential to the higher end of the trading range
"If the sovereign shifts into permanent default sooner without paying these delayed coupons, then there could be forced selling from those investors that viewed the sovereign as the more defensive credit for higher recovery value"
Assumes another year of decline in oil production at aggressive pace which higher oil prices will be unable to offset and with no other creative sources of funding, which again shifts burden to import compression to balance the shortfall
qua si sblocca tutto a parte i soberanos...
Penso che invece arriveranno anche quelli
anche secondo me Kain ,
con gli ultimi pagamenti si sono messi in pari con le pdvsa mi sembra,
ora tocca ai nostri
qua si sblocca tutto a parte i soberanos...
Prepariamoci a volare.........Lunedì!!!!!
Maledetti americani !