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According to a recent AQR study, a key determinant of the stock-bond correlation is the relative dominance of growth uncertainty and inflation uncertainty. Stocks and bonds react to growth shocks in opposite ways: stocks go up and bonds go down. But stocks and bonds react in the same direction to inflation shocks: stocks go down and bonds usually go down more.
At least in the short term, we believe higher stock-bond correlations are likely to persist, for the simple reason that stock-bond correlations tend to exhibit some level of autocorrelation.
Historically, higher stock-bond correlations have meant that bonds are less likely to offset stock declines and that long-duration bonds are less attractive. It also increases the likelihood of inflationary outcomes that favor commodities such as oil.
Below we show a table with returns to various asset classes in both high and low stock-bond correlation environments, normalized by historical volatility. We classify regimes by the standard deviation of the trailing stock-bond correlation, measured with a 30-day half-life, with an absolute deviation of 0.5 or greater needed to mark a positive or negative correlation regime. While the effect is not the strongest, it shows that neutral and positive-correlation environments tend to be good for equities and oil, while Treasurys and gold benefit from negative-correlation environments.
Figure 4: Sharpe Ratios by Asset Class and Regime, 1990–2023
Stock-Bond Correlations