Bond in sterline ne abbiamo?

Per ora sembra che stia recuperando piu' la sterlina che i gilts... Diciamo che siamo tornati ai valori di venerdi' mattina... Ma per ritornare a valori "pre-settembrini" penso che ce ne voglia ancora... Anche perche' il 3 novembre la BoE alzera' per bene i tassi...

Anche secondo me stanno facendo raffreddare il mercato, ma i tassi erano cmq destinati a salire ulteriormente entro fine anno.
 
Rimandano l'inizio delle vendite dei gilts sole 24 ore... Anziche' di minimo 6-12 mesi! :eek:
Non so piu' cosa pensare, rimango molto perplesso... Secondo me stanno facendo a gara a chi e' piu' scollegato dalla realta'... :confused:
Cara grazia che, almeno per il momento, le vendite non interesseranno i gilts di lungo periodo...


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/18/bank-england-delays-bond-sales-day-avoid-clash-hunt/

Bank of England delays bond sales by a day to avoid clash with Hunt

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will lay out plans to bring the deficit under control on Oct 31
By Tim Wallace 18 October 2022 • 7:22pm

The Bank of England is delaying the start of a major sale of government debt by one day to prevent a clash with the announcement of Jeremy Hunt's fiscal plan.

Officials have announced that they will begin offloading bonds bought through years of emergency quantitative easing (QE) on November 1.

The Bank previously said it would start this process on Oct 31 – when Mr Hunt, the new Chancellor, now intends to unveil his Government's plan to bring the deficit under control.

Threadneedle Street also said it will initially only sell short-dated Government debt of the kind not widely held by pension funds, in order to prevent a repeat of market turmoil that drove some retirement schemes to the brink in the wake of the mini-Budget.

In an announcement released after markets closed on Tuesday, the Bank said: “In light of the Government’s fiscal announcement now scheduled for 31 October 2022, the first gilt sale operation will now take place on 1 November 2022.”

It added that initial sales “will be distributed evenly across the short and medium maturity sectors only”.

It marks a significant shift from the initial plan to sell the bonds evenly across different maturities, but allows the Bank to crack on with its plan of selling £40bn of bonds over the next year in a decisive step to shrink its balance sheet.

QE was used to prop up the economy during the financial crisis and Covid by using billions of pounds of newly created money to buy government debt.

Thes support came to an end last December, and since March the Bank has allowed bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds to buy new ones.

This process has already allowed the Bank’s QE balance sheet to shrink from a peak of £895bn at the end of last year to just under £838bn of gilts and £18bn of corporate bonds.

A combination of maturing gilts and active sales is expected to reduce the total by around another £80bn over the next 12 months.


The sale process was initially intended to start at the end of last month, but the Bank was forced to postpone it as part of efforts to calm markets after the mini-Budget.

Sir Jon Cunliffe, the Bank's deputy governor for financial stability, told MPs that the subsequent pensions squeeze led to the five largest daily moves in the 30-year inflation-linked gilt market since records began in 2000.

But he said that officials' decision to buy bonds to give liability-driven investment (LDI) funds time to stabilise their positions appears to have worked.

In a letter to the Treasury Select Committee, Sir Jon said: “In aggregate, market intelligence suggests that LDI funds have raised tens of billion pounds in capital and made many billion pounds of gilt sales, both of which will reduce their leverage,” he wrote.

“We know that the majority of the Bank’s gilt purchases were from LDI managers. As a result of these actions, LDI funds have reported to the Bank that they have enough capital to withstand much larger increases in yields than before.”

It comes as the Government successfully borrowed £2.5bn with a bond maturing in 2051, with an interest rate of below 4.5pc. Investors offered more than £5bn for the debt, indicating they appear willing to back long-term UK borrowing despite the turmoil of recent weeks.
 
già passata sotto i vostri radar questa?
scadenza 1 anno e 2 mesi BEI

XS1679039328
 
Scadenza molto breve; ma, a questo punto, direi di aspettare e vedere dove andra' a finire, ora che un aumento tassi di 1.00 ad inizio novembre sembra sempre piu' probabile...
 
Gilt a dieci anni venduto oggi con tasso lordo del 4.11%... Facendo i conti della serva, i gilts gia' sul mercat dovrebbero salire un filo...

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1582683473097404416?cxt=HHwWgMDR3feO6fYrAAAA

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Ed Conway
@edconwaySky
Another gilt auction today. £3.25bn of 10yr govt debt.
Decent appetite: 2.42 bids for each bond.
Pretty reassuring, given everything that’s happened in the past few weeks - not just the mini-budget, but also @bankofengland
confirming last night it’s pushing on with bond sales…


https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1582683473097404416/photo/1
 
Notizie timidamente discrete (tradotto: la BoE potrebbe alzare i tassi "di soli 0.75" ad inizio novembre), recepite per ora con lieve positiva' dai mercati... Con conseguente lieve aumento delle quotazioni dei gilts OK!:cool:
In questo momento il governo ha bisogno di ritrovare credibilita'... Piu' in fretta la trovera', prima si ritrovera' stabilita' a livello finanziario... La strada resta comunque lunga e non priva di ostacoli...

32m ago
09.56 BST
BoE's Broadbent: Interest rates may not rise as much as market expects

Just in. Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent has said it ‘remains to be seen’ whether UK interest rates have to rise as much as the markets predict.

That could bring some relief to mortgage-holders, who are concerned that interest rates are currently forecast to more than double to over 5% by next summer.

Speaking at Imperial College London, Broadbent explains that the economy has been hit by severe real shocks.

The pandemic raised the global demand for goods and reduced their supply; Russia has cut back severely its supply of gas to Europe. These have had dramatic effects on relative prices.

In particular, import prices have risen significantly compared with the price of UK output. This has unavoidably depressed real incomes: the volume of output may have just about recovered to pre-Covid levels but its consumption value has not.

Broadbend explains that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will respond promptly to news about fiscal policy (the MPC is due to set interest rates on November 3rd, three days after Jeremy Hunt is due to announce his fiscal plan).

Broadbent says the justification for tightening monetary policy is clear (inflation is five times over the Bank’s 2% target, for starters).

But much of the overshoot in inflation is due to higher import prices (such as gas, and food which has risen by over 14% in the last year). That effect should fade as prices stabilise.

Broadbent explains that the path of wholesale energy prices is highly uncertain, but financial markets suggest we’re more likely to see negative than positive inflation in wholesale gas prices a couple of years from now.

Domestic inflation tends to be persistent, however. And reducing it requires the economy to grow below its trend rate for a period of time, he warns.

Broadbent concludes:

Because they’ve depressed real incomes, that slowing in demand will to some degree follow from the very same rises in import costs that have pushed up headline inflation.

Equally, if government support mitigates that effect, there is more at the margin for monetary policy to do. The MPC is likely to respond relatively promptly to news about fiscal policy. Whether official interest rates have to rise by quite as much as currently priced in financial markets remains to be seen.
 
Giusto per capire che proiettile abbiamo (per ora) schivato...

Bank of England wasn't briefed on mini-budget

The government did not tell the Bank of England about its tax cut plans before the mini-budget, one of its deputy governors has said.

In the event, the mini-budget sparked market turmoil, with the Bank having to step in to stabilise pension funds.

The Bank could have advised the government on the possible market reaction, Sir Jon Cunliffe said.

The government was criticised for bypassing some independent scrutiny of its plans before making them public.

The mini-budget, which was put forward by former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and Prime Minister Liz Truss, included huge tax cuts but it was unclear how they would be funded.

This led to a sharp drop in the pound against the dollar, and spooked investors about government debt, leading to the risk of some pension funds collapsing.

What was in the mini-budget and what is the government's new plan?
Jeremy Hunt scraps almost all mini-budget as Liz Truss battles to remain PM

The Bank of England was forced to step in to buy government debt to stop a fire-sale by some pension funds of assets which could have led to their collapse.

Following the market turmoil, criticism by institutions including the IMF, and a huge drop in the polls for the Conservatives, Mr Kwarteng was sacked by his close political ally Liz Truss.
 
Nei prossimi anni ci ammazzeranno di tasse... :nera::nera::incazzed:

UK Treasury to Transfer £11 Billion to BOE to Cover QE Losses

Payment is first evidence of taxpayer hit from bond-buying
Government has already made a £828 million advance to APF

By Philip Aldrick, David Goodman, and Tuhin Kar

19 October 2022 at 16:28 BSTUpdated on19 October 2022 at 17:48 BST

The UK Treasury is set to transfer more than £11 billion ($12.4 billion) to the Bank of England this fiscal year to cover projected losses in its bond-buying program, according to a person familiar with the situation.

The capital transfer was detailed in an update to the “Central Government Supply Estimates” published on Tuesday by the Treasury. The new £11.175 billion injection is listed under “assistance to financial institutions -- payment to the Bank of England.”

Parliament is set to debate the payment, which will cover losses for six months, on Monday. The BOE is to begin active sales of its quantitative easing program next month.

The transfer is a key milestone for QE’s journey from government cash cow to liability. The BOE began buying bonds in 2009 and has transferred around £120 billion in profits from the scheme to the Treasury so far.

The sharp rise in interest rates and the steep fall in gilt prices ahead of the BOE’s planned sales have now reversed the flows for the first time. An initial £828 million already been transfered.

In a written ministerial statement, Andrew Griffith, financial secretary to the Treasury, said the government is seeking parliamentary approval for the disbursal this month. Until members of Parliament approve the transfer, an £828 million advance has been made from the “Contingencies Fund.”

The BOE bought £895 billion of government and corporate bonds between 2009 and 2021 to provide economic support after interest rates were cut as low as they could go. The recent fall in bond prices, after interest rates shot up, has left the remaining the £838 billion portfolio of gilts carrying a market loss of about £200 billion.

As the BOE’s purchases are indemnified by the Treasury, any losses will be borne by taxpayer.

BOE officials have repeatedly stressed that the QE program was designed to support the UK economy, thereby protecting jobs and incomes, not to make a profit and should be seen in that context. The BOE declined to comment for this story.

However, the costs of the program are hitting at the worst possible time for Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government, which now needs to find large savings to balance the books in the wake of its disastrous budget last month.

Future Loss

The shortfall stems from the design of the BOE’s bond buying under its quantitative easing program, where the central bank bought bonds in financial markets to stimulate the economy and limit interest rates.

As part of the QE program, an equivalent amount of reserves were created in the form of deposits held by commercial lenders at the bank.

The central bank pays interest on those reserves at the current bank rate. Initially, the cost was more than covered by income earned on government bonds bought by the BOE with the money it created.

That equation has changed now that interest rates have risen to 2.25%, higher than the average coupon income on the gilt portfolio. That’s prompted speculation the government may consider changing the rules of the plan to mitigate the hit. The Treasury denies that tweak is coming
.

Pressure to change the payout on reserves may increase along with rising costs of the program. If the BOE’s key rates hit 5% next year, as markets currently expect, interest payments on holdings will be close to £40 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Coupon payments will offset less than half of that, while selling bonds will also likely incur extra losses as prices are currently much lower than they were bought for (e' quello che vado ripetendo ormai da settimane :wall::wall::wall: ).

Bloomberg calculations suggest the BOE’s annual loss could top £20 billion as soon as next year. Andrew Hauser, executive director for markets at the BOE, told parliament on Wednesday that it could take 10 years to unwind QE.

A spokesman for the Treasury said “the new chancellor remains very committed to bank independence and has full confidence in it.”
 
bel colpo è tornata a 91 OK!

Eh gia', avendo tolto di mezzo quel cancro del "mini-budget", ero sicuro al 99% che le quotazioni si sarebbero riprese... Purtroppo, per colpa della mia frenesia, venerdi' scorso ho comprato di mattina in area 85.5... :o Se avessi aspettato venerdi' primo pomeriggio avrei preso in area 80-81... Tanto per dire, venerdi' sera ero sotto di oltre £4k... Attualmente sto dentro con pmc 85.6 e godo solo a meta'... Ma mi accontento :D
 
La butto li'... Se Liz si dovesse dimettere, i gilts potrebbero tornare verso quotazioni pre-settembrine... :sperem::sperem::sperem:

3m ago
13.21 BST
Pound higher as Truss to make statement

The pound has pushed higher on reports that Liz Truss will give a statement outside Number 10 Downing Street on her future at 1.30pm.

Sterling is now up two-thirds of a cent at $1.128, the highest since yesterday morning.

Earlier today, a spokesperson for the prime minister told reporters that Truss will continue in office beyond the fiscal statement on 31 October.
 
ue si è dimessa!

era ben oltre 100 il 45 prima che si insediasse se non erro
 
Ricordi bene! Onestamente non mi aspetto bruschi strappi all'insù... Certo che, se Sunak tornasse, stavolta nelle vesti di Prime Minister... Penso proprio che i mercati apprezzerebbero... Stiamo a vedere cosa succede, ora della fine di settimana prossima...
 
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Starmer joins calls for Truss to decline ex-PMs’ £115,000 annual grant

Outgoing PM urged to forgo allowance amid cost of living crisis and cuts to public services

Ben Quinn and Jamie Grierson
Fri 21 Oct 2022 08.43 BST
First published on Fri 21 Oct 2022 06.00 BST

Keir Starmer has joined calls for Liz Truss to decline the allowance of up to £115,000 a year she will be entitled to as a former prime minister.


The Labour leader told ITV’s Good Morning Britain on Friday: “She should turn it down. I think that’s the right thing to do. She’s done 44 days in office, she’s not really entitled to it, she should turn it down and not take it.”

The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, also said she should turn down the allowance.

The political leaders’ remarks come after a trade union representing civil servants hit out at the entitlement to the perk amid a mounting squeeze on public services and the cost of living crisis.

Mark Serwotka, the general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services Union, said: “At a time when one in five civil servants are using food banks and 35% have skipped meals because they have no food, it’s grotesque that Liz Truss can walk away with what is effectively a £115,000 bonus.

“The next prime minister must give civil servants, who work hard on essential services, an above-inflation pay rise.”

Truss can claim the funding under the public duty costs allowance (PDCA), which was introduced by the then cabinet secretary, Sir Robin Butler, after Margaret Thatcher’s resignation. Government guidance states that the PDCA was introduced to assist former prime ministers still active in public life.

The former prime ministers are entitled to claim for necessary office and secretarial costs arising from their special position in public life. In 2020-21, John Major and Tony Blair claimed the maximum allowance; Gordon Brown claimed £114,712; David Cameron claimed £113,423 and Theresa May £57,832.

Mike Galsworthy, a campaigner on Brexit and other issues, tweeted: “Scrap the Public Duties Cost Allowance (PDCA). You’ll be seeing more of that term over the next days and months. Ridiculous that Johnson, Truss, Blair etc should be getting this £115,000 per annum for life.”

Jo Grady, the general secretary of the University and College Union, also joined calls for Truss to give up the allowance. She said: “Millions of public sector workers, including those who transform lives in education, are in the grips of a devastating cost of living crisis. Low pay leaves thousands upon thousands skipping meals and restricting energy use.

“They will be appalled to see the soon to be former prime minister rewarded for such catastrophic failings. She should do the right thing and give up the money.”

Steven Littlewood, the assistant general secretary of the FDA, which represents senior civil servants, said: “The hypocrisy is astounding. This year, the government has offered a real-terms pay cut and once again tried to attack the redundancy terms of the civil servants who are keeping this country running while we move from one prime minister to another.

“After all of that, it beggars belief that the prime minister would accept £115k a year for just six weeks in the job.”

Joe Davies, a local organiser in Brixton with the Don’t Pay group, which is demanding a reduction in bills, said: “It’s a slap in the face even as a name. We’re picking up the tab for her ‘public duty’ from our pockets, our stomachs and in our heating bills this winter.”

Truss’s pension will not receive any extra boost from her time in Downing Street. Since 2013, prime ministers have been part of the regular ministerial pension scheme, paying in a certain proportion of their salary while the government also contributes.

Blair is understood to have been the last prime minister to avail of a special prime minister’s pension. Brown and Cameron decided to forgo the scheme and join the general scheme, before doing so became law in 2013.

There is also a severance payment, which amounts to a one-off payment of 25% of the annual salary for the post that ministers have left. For prime ministers it is about £19,000 (25% of £79,000 annual salary).
 
Buon pomeriggio a tutti, come procede?

Le quotazioni dei gilts salgono lentamente, con il freno tirato... Come auspicato dal sottoscritto, Rishi Sunak e' sempre piu' papabile come nuovo primo ministro... Nel we ci siam liberati della sciagurata ipotesi di ritrovarci BoJo tra le bolas... A breve l'incoronazione di Sunak, forse il meno peggio tra la ghenga squinternata dei Tories... :rolleyes:

A queste buone notizie (i mercati esigono un governo stabile ed affidabile) fanno da contraltare le cattive notizie economico-commerciali (un po' in linea con quanto sta accadendo nel resto d'Europa; peccato che UK sia fuori dall'UE, e quindi attenzionata speciale)... :'(

UK business activity falls to lowest level since January 2021

UK business activity contracted for a third month in a row in October, and fell to its lowest level since January 2021, signalling that the UK could be on course for a deep recession.

That is based on the latest set of UK PMIs, with the composite PMI giving a reading of 47.2 compared to 49.1 in September.

Economists had expected a reading of 48.1.


In tutto questo, nell'attesa che ufficializzino il nuovo primo ministro: il 31 ottobre Hunt dovrebbe presentare la manovra finanziaria 2023; il 3 novembre la BoE decidera' se alzare i tassi di 0.75 o 1.00... :eek:

Con i miei gilts sono in verde, vedo un +7% abbondante... Mi piacerebbe riuscire a vendere prima del 31 ottobre o, alla peggio, comunque prima del 3 novembre... Vediamo se ora di venerdi' riesco a grattare un altro punticino o due sulle quotazioni... :o
 
In tutto questo, nell'attesa che ufficializzino il nuovo primo ministro: il 31 ottobre Hunt dovrebbe presentare la manovra finanziaria 2023; il 3 novembre la BoE decidera' se alzare i tassi di 0.75 o 1.00... :eek:

Con i miei gilts sono in verde, vedo un +7% abbondante... Mi piacerebbe riuscire a vendere prima del 31 ottobre o, alla peggio, comunque prima del 3 novembre... Vediamo se ora di venerdi' riesco a grattare un altro punticino o due sulle quotazioni... :o

Anche io ero entrato con un cippino e potrei seguire. Speriamo siano confermati i rialzi e l'inversione di trendOK!
 
Teniamo le dita incrociate, vediamo se sul 3 1/2% TREASURY GILT 2045 riusciamo a toccare i 94 in denaro entro oggi... :sperem::sperem::sperem:

EDIT: aggiorno con qualche buona notizia, almeno in un'ottica di breve periodo

"Reversion in UK/US 10 year bond spread" Ottimo, Sunak nuovo premier si traduce in maggiore stabilita' percepita dal mercato... Poi vabbe', vederemo quale finanziaria tireranno mai fuori dal cappello lui e Hunt, il 31 ottobre... :o
https://twitter.com/davidbelle_/status/1584809031826558976/photo/1

Ottimo constatare come la logica del "votiamo il meno peggio" non sia propria solo del Bel Paese... :rolleyes:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/25/best-of-a-bad-bunch-voters-share-their-views-on-rishi-sunak

Nel frattempo, telecronaca di Sunak che va a fare la conoscenza di King Charles III; per poi parlare alla nazione, e magari annunciare un posticipamento del piano fiscale... https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/oct/25/uk-politics-live-sunak-to-meet-king-charles-and-give-first-address-to-the-nation-as-pm
 
Ultima modifica:
Teniamo le dita incrociate, vediamo se sul 3 1/2% TREASURY GILT 2045 riusciamo a toccare i 94 in denaro entro oggi... :sperem::sperem::sperem:

Il denaro ha superato i 95 ed io ho venduto... Avevo pmc 85.6, quasi 10 punti fatti in un paio di settimane, diciamo che mi accontento... :o
Ora resto alla finestra, in attesa di capire cosa faranno il 31 ottobre, e soprattutto cosa fara' la BoE il 3 di novembre... Buona continuazione a tutti! :bye:

EDIT: sperando di far cosa gradita, posto questo link, a mio avviso molto utile per chi, come me, risiede in UK...
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/gilt-edged-securities-exempt-from-capital-gains-tax
Per farla breve, se avete residenza in UK e il vostro gilt e' incluso nella lista del link... Il capital gain non si paga! OK! La lista include anche il gilt 2045 che ho venduto, quindi il mio gain una volta tanto e' esentasse! :cool: ...Esentasse, che bella parola! :D:D:D
 
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occhio alle credit suisse visto che ci sono anche in GBP
starei alla larga
 
Indietro