Fol News

Tutti gli approfondimenti
Tutte le notizie

Discutere in armonia e senza pregiudizi. Chi non gli va bene il thread non entri

Unknown-1-1-2.jpegIran in the SCO, the timing is right


Iran's ascension to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) this September would be a win-win for both. For the Islamic Republic, it would represent its first-ever commitment to a regional collective security bloc and untold access to new export markets. For the SCO, Iran would represent a vital foothold connecting West Asia and Eurasia.



Vedi l'allegato 2783172


The timing may be right for Iran to join the SCO this September. The world is changing fast and geopolitical alliances are lining up to stake their claims.


Speaking at his 6 August inauguration ceremony, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said the message of the people of Iran in the 2021 presidential election was a message of change. “The world is changing and the interests of nations depend on understanding the new world and strategic interaction with emerging powers. A successful foreign policy will be a balanced foreign policy,” he elaborated.

Contrary to his predecessor, the new Iranian president told reporters during his first press conference that his foreign policy will neither start with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, nor will it be limited to the deal.

His words have fueled speculation that Iran foreign policy will shift further eastward under Raisi. By the ‘new world,’ president Raisi was likely referring in part to the rise of China as a major global economic power. Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani strengthened this speculation on 11 August, in a tweet referencing his phone conversation with the Secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolay Patrushev: “Fortunately, the political obstacles to Iran’s membership in the Shanghai agreement (Shanghai Cooperation Organization or SCO) have been removed and Iran’s membership will be finalized through technical formalities.”

The upcoming annual summit of the SCO is going to be held mid-September in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. A source told The Cradle that Tajikistan as rotating president and host of the summit has invited the Iranian president, who is expected to attend the conference.

If Iran’s permanent membership is confirmed in the leaders’ summit, this will be the first major step by the conservative Raisi administration toward Iran’s official convergence with eastern powers, China and Russia. Even more importantly, it will also mark the first time Iran has joined a regional collective security bloc since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The SCO is currently comprised of eight-member states including China, Russia, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran has held observer status in the organization since 2005. The issue of Iran’s accession to the body has been raised twice at the leaders’ level meetings but was rejected both times. The first application was made in 2006, and dismissed due to Iran’s inclusion in Chapter 7 of the UN Charter; It was rejected on the grounds that SCO member states have obligations to each other under the charter of the organization, which cannot be fulfilled with Iran being under sanctions.

The 2015 nuclear deal and subsequent lifting of international sanctions prompted a second Iranian application for permanent SCO membership. This too was dismissed, this time by Tajikistan, which believed Tehran to be supportive of the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan.

While this record would suggest caution in predicting Iran’s full membership status, new developments on the global stage bode well for Tehran’s accession to the SCO. Relentless US pressure and sanctions on China, Russia and Iran have, in recent years, prodded the three nations into converging on various fronts in order to counter US hegemonic demands. But now it appears the change of administration in the US has done little to improve Beijing’s and Moscow’s relations with Washington. For these two rising powers, US president Joe Biden is no improvement on former President Donald Trump, and potentially even worse. Likewise Iran, which hoped at least to see a unilateral return to the JCPOA under Biden.

Today, China, Russia, and Iran have even clearer reason to be members of a bloc which can compete with Western-dominated organizations that persist in thwarting their progress at every turn. The nature and function of the SCO might differ from Western alliances such as NATO, but it will have the potential to counter American hegemony, at least indirectly, and in the long run – if it starts now.

The new administration in Iran will be keenly eying the political, security and economic benefits of full SCO membership as well. If the SCO accepts Iran’s application this time around, despite aggressive US sanctions levied against the country, it suggests that member states have shed their concerns about the inviolability of US diktats, and may even be prepared to work around them. China, for instance, has been testing the US resolve for some time now by not ceasing its oil purchases from Iran. That, in itself, will be a huge burden off Tehran’s shoulders. It will no longer be expected to walk its difficult path alone.

The political and security dividends implicit in SCO membership are significant too. Iran can gain better access to the vast and hugely populated region of Eurasia to diversify its export markets, but importantly, the SCO will also for the first time gain inroads into West Asia. Also of interest to land-locked, Central Asian, SCO members will be Iran’s ports and waterways. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has already confirmed a major road artery through the north of Iran, and the combination of the Islamic Republic’s energy resources, waters and land routes will be hard to pass up. It is worth noting that Tehran reached an interim free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in early 2021. The country and the union will, in turn, be working on a plan for full-scale Iranian membership in the EAEU.

Against the backdrop of these developments, Iran has clinched a 25-year comprehensive strategic agreement with China, and is about to start work on a pre-existing, long-term deal with Russia as well. Both powers are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and have solid political, military and economic offerings that are tempting for Iran, specifically in an era of US ‘maximum pressure.’

Although membership in the SCO is based on consensus, Beijing and Moscow are the main driving forces in the organization and can pave the way for Iran’s membership. Iran’s relationship with Tajikistan continues to improve, and the latter has publicly and privately dropped its objections to Tehran’s application. The Speaker of Tajikistan’s parliament attended the inauguration ceremony of president Raisi and met with him one-on-one. And earlier this year, Tajikistan and Iran laid the foundation for expanding military cooperation to counter terrorism.

While Iran’s SCO membership prospects are unlikely to be confirmed before the September meeting in Dushanbe, the stars are well aligned this time. The US confrontation against Russia, China, and Iran, its humiliating losses in Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen, its troop drawdown in Iraq, China’s increasing footprint in West Asia, and the general state of America’s hegemonic decline – all these factors invite a seismic change in the global balance of power. And with that, the prospect of new and unexpected formal alliances that we might not have seen a few short years ago.

Iran in the SCO, the timing is right
 
NATO Announces Plan for Massive European Land Army – INTERNATIONALIST 360deg

In what NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called the “biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defense since the Cold War,” the US-led NATO alliance has announced plans to build a massive standing land army in Europe, numbering in the hundreds of thousands.
Stoltenberg said NATO would increase its “high readiness forces” sevenfold, from 40,000 to 300,000, deploying tens of thousands of additional troops, as well as countless tanks and aircraft, directly to Russia’s border.
The move will entail a massive diversion of social resources to NATO’s ongoing war with Russia and planned war with China, draining treasuries throughout Europe and North America and fueling demands for the elimination of social services, the slashing of wages, and the gutting of workers’ pensions.
Stoltenberg said the creation of this massive fighting force was a response to the “new era of strategic competition” with Russia and China.
He called the plan “a fundamental shift in NATO’s deterrence and defense,” embracing not only the war with Russia, but “the challenges that Beijing poses to our security, interests and values.”
As a part of this massive expansion of its fighting force, NATO will increase the numbers of troops stationed in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to the “brigade” level, meaning approximately 3,000 to 5,000 troops.
The Financial Times reported, based on an interview with Stoltenberg, that the plan will “include new structures in which Western NATO allies, such as the US, UK and France, would pledge their ships, warplanes and a total of more than 300,000 troops to be ready to deploy to specific territories on the alliance’s eastern flank, with graded response times starting from the opening hours of any attack.”
Instead of troops deployed to the Baltics serving as a “tripwire,” the new plan would envision NATO fighting a war against Russia directly on the borders of these countries on NATO’s eastern battlefront.
Stoltenberg boasted that “2022 will be the eighth consecutive year of increases across European Allies and Canada,” adding that NATO’s target of two percent of economic output going to military spending will be “considered a floor, not a ceiling.”
That same day, US officials previewed yet another massive weapons shipment to Ukraine, including the NASAMS medium-to-long-range surface-to-air missile defense system created by Raytheon.
In addition to “advanced medium- and long-range air defense capabilities for the Ukrainians,” the US would also provide “ammunition for artillery and counter battery radar systems,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said.
Members of the NATO alliance, meanwhile, are openly using the language of war. In his first public speech as the chief of the general staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders will, according to the Telegraph, declare that the UK army must be ready to “fight and win” against Russia.
Simultaneously, the US and its allies are intensifying the economic embargo against Russia. Over the weekend, participants in the G7 summit announced plans to ban imports of gold from Russia and are finalizing plans to try to put price caps on oil and gas sold by Russia.
On Monday, Russia officially defaulted on its foreign debt payments, after European payments clearinghouses refused to process payments from the country. Russian officials insist that they have the funds available to make the payments, but that it has been effectively cut out from the European financial system and hence forced to carry out an artificial default.
Regardless, this would be the first time Russia has defaulted on its debts since 1918, when the Bolshevik government, in the wake of the 1917 revolution, repudiated the foreign debts of the Tsarist regime.
NATO’s massive military escalation comes as the official position of the United States and NATO—that they are not at war with Russia—becomes increasingly untenable.
This weekend, the New York Times reported that US forces are secretly operating on the ground in Ukraine, as well as forces from several other NATO countries, despite the denials of Biden and other NATO leaders.
“But even as the Biden administration has declared it will not deploy American troops to Ukraine, some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country… directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces,” the Times wrote.
The newspaper reported that dozens of special forces from the UK, Canada, France and Lithuania have been operating inside the country.
The revelation, the report continued, “hints at the scale of the secretive effort to assist Ukraine that is underway and the risks that Washington and its allies are taking.”
The Times report is only the latest piece of evidence documenting the extent of US involvement in the war. Earlier this year, NBC and other media outlets reported that the United States was directly involved in Ukrainian targeted killings of Russian generals, as well as the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Ukrainian commanders, according to these reports, are provided intelligence extracted from satellites “which they can call up on tablet computers provided by the allies. The tablets run a battlefield mapping app that the Ukrainians use to target and attack Russian troops.”
Despite the massive degree of US involvement in the war, Ukrainian losses are surging, rivaling the number of US combat deaths at the deadliest point of the Vietnam war. On some days, Ukrainian forces have suffered between 500 and 1,000 casualties.
Russia now controls more than 90 percent of the Donbass in East Ukraine and a total of one fifth of the entire territory of Ukraine. But despite the disastrous series of battlefield setbacks, the United States and its NATO allies are massively intensifying their involvement in the war, no matter the cost in Ukrainian lives or the trillions of dollars diverted from vital social programs.
Russian officials are drawing the conclusion that open war between NATO and Russia is all but inevitable. In remarks last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: “Hitler rallied a significant part, if not most, of the European nations under his banner for a war against the Soviet Union… now, the EU together with NATO are forming another—modern—coalition for a standoff and, ultimately, war with the Russian Federation.”
The deadly logic of the spiraling conflict raises the prospect that the proxy war in Ukraine will rapidly metastasize across the European continent, triggering the deadliest global military conflict since the Second World War. This reality makes clear the urgent necessity for the working class to intervene in the crisis, aiming to unite the struggles against the surging cost of living and attacks on democratic rights with the struggle against war.
 
Guerra tra Russia e Occidente…. In un’ottica futuristica la Russia vincerà e potrà proclamarsi quella che effettivamente può essere Una “Madre Russia”
 
BRASILE MULTIPOLARE: UNA “POTENZA IN POTENZA” IN GUERRA CIVILE PERMANENTE
A pochi giorni dal ballottaggio che deciderà se il prossimo presidente del Brasile sarà Jair Bolsonaro o Ignacio Lula da Silva, per molti è alta la tentazione di descrivere questa sfida secondo il tipico modello sudamericano: Una destra pinochettiana filo-angloamericana e una sinistra populista/bolivariana filo-cinese e filo-cubana. La realtà si discosta molto da questo modello, però.

Il Brasile fa storia a se, ed ha una storia piuttosto complicata; di cui forse l’aspetto più facilmente decifrabile sono le sue relazioni con il resto del mondo. Quest’ultime sono segnate da un persistente neutralismo o – per essere più precisi – multilateralismo, che accompagna quasi l’intera storia del paese, e ci porta a leggere le odierne tensioni politiche su un piano prevalentemente domestico, piuttosto che internazionale.

UN ANTICO REGIME NEL NUOVO MONDO


Ad essere singolare è già la genesi del grande stato amazzonico.

Il Brasile nasce, come gli Stati Uniti, da una contesa tra potentati locali e madrepatria, relativa al deferimento dei poteri.
All’inizio degli anni ’20 dell’Ottocento, la monarchia brasiliana si trova in una situazione piuttosto precaria, essendo stata da poco restaurata dopo l’occupazione napoleonica della penisola iberica. Parte della famiglia reale – ripiegata in Brasile – tra cui Pedro “il liberatore”, decide però di non tornare in patria dopo la restaurazione. Quando Lisbona minaccia di ridurre l’autonomia del Brasile, Pedro si schiera con le forze locali, diventando il primo Imperatore del Brasile indipendente, e conducendo con successo una guerra di liberazione contro le truppe rimaste fedeli al Portogallo.

Mentre le colonie spagnole – nonostante i tentativi di unificazione di Simon Bolivar – si emancipano separatamente dalla madrepatria, l’ex colonia portoghese rimane unita, diventando lo stato più esteso e popoloso del subcontinente sudamericano, ponendo le basi per la nascita di una potenza globale, o almeno regionale. Lo stato brasiliano – retto da una dinastia europea (che cercherà anche di riconquistare il Portogallo, non riuscendoci) è il più europeo tra gli stati americani, e parla una lingua diversa da quella di tutti i suoi vicini. Forse è già in questo momento che vengono poste le basi “psicologiche” di quello che sarà il successivo atteggiamento circospetto del Brasile sulla scena internazionale.

UNO STATO PRETORIANO
Un altra ragione della prudenza brasiliana si trova nella difficoltà di mantenere il fragile equilibrio interno.

In questo il Brasile è una tipica nazione latina – come i suoi vicini, la Spagna, o l’Italia – sempre tormentata dallo spettro aleggiante della guerra civile; combattuta o meno che sia. Piuttosto che la cultura politica alla Westminster, in Brasile – con l’avvento della repubblica alla fine del diciannovesimo secolo – si afferma il coronelismo: L’alternanza al potere delle elite agrarie di Sao Paulo e Minas Gerais (anche detta politica del caffelatte) mediante una “democrazia clientelare”, assicurata dalle forze armate.

E’ proprio nell’assetto politico della prima repubblica che nasce un’ulteriore costante della politica brasiliana: Un ruolo preponderante dei militari.

Le forze armate brasiliane accompagneranno ogni svolta politica nella storia del paese, senza mai essere vittima degli eventi. Piuttosto, anticipandoli.

Sono proprio le forze armate ad assecondare il malcontento popolare nella fase terminale della Republica Velha – durante la grande depressione – appoggiando la rivoluzione di Getullio Vargas e la costruzione dell’estado novo sul modello di Salazar. Come il Portogallo di Salazar, il Brasile lavorerà per gli alleati durante la seconda guerra mondiale; arrivando a mandare un corpo di spedizione in Italia (che poi verrà internato e rieducato al ritorno in patria, per evitare contaminazioni politiche) in quella che sarà la seconda e ultima volta in cui le forze armate brasiliane parteciperanno ad un conflitto fuori dal continente americano.

Sarà poi proprio l’esercito a fiutare il cambio di vento successivo al secondo conflitto mondiale, deponendo Getullio Vargas con un colpo di stato e dando il via alla seconda repubblica. Il primo presidente eletto tramite libere elezioni nel 1945? Il Generale Eurico Caspar Dutra, ex ministro della guerra durante l’estado novo.

Ancora, nel 1954 i militari impongono a Getullio Vargas – tornato al potere tramite elezioni – di dimettersi, portandolo al suicidio. E saranno nuovamente i militari – in questo caso sì, ci sono paralleli con il Cile – a sfruttare una crisi costituzionale per mettere fine al governo del Partito Nazionale dei Lavoratori di Goulart nel 1964, instaurando il noto regime militare che governerà il paese fino all”85, quello contro cui combatterà Carlos Marighella, autore del primo manuale di guerriglia urbana mai scritto.

La transizione alla democrazia – sebbene richiesta dal basso – verrà anch’essa gestita dai militari senza scatenare una guerra civile, tanto che nessun esponente del regime verrà processato per gli eventi del “ventennio”.
DOPO LA DITTATURA MILITARE

L’inizio della “terza repubblica” brasiliana non coincide però con la fine dell’intervento dei militari nella vita politica del paese.

Nel settembre 2017, durante il caos politico causato dall’impeachment di Dilma Roussef e dai procedimenti giudiziari contro l’ex presidente Lula – nell’ambito dell’inchiesta “Lava Jato”, la tangentopoli brasiliana – il Generale Antonio Hamilton Martins Mourao dichiara pubblicamente la possibilità concreta di un intervento militare, e che ci sia “un limite al livello di caos politico che le forze armate possono tollerare“. La risposta della popolazione brasiliana fu tutt’altro che di unanime condanna, tanto che durante un’oceanica manifestazione di camionisti nel maggio 2018, si registra un convinto sostegno rispetto ad un’ipotesi di golpe.

Il costante interventismo dei militari nella vita politica del paese non sembra averne danneggiato irreparabilmente la reputazione. Dai sondaggi emerge che le forze armate siano l’istituzione di cui i brasiliani si fidano di più dopo la Chiesa; forse proprio a causa del ruolo di “traghettatore” durante periodi di caos per il paese.

L’immagine che esce da questo breve riassunto è quella di un paese di fatto “pretoriano”, in cui i militari accompagnano ogni importante transizione politica.

Il che ci porta ad arrivare alla caldissima questione delle elezioni e di Bolsonaro.
UN NUOVO GOLPE?

Le pagine dei giornali sono piene di titoli riguardanti l’ipotesi di un golpe guidato dal presidente Bolsonaro, in seguito ad un risultato sfavorevole alle elezioni. Ma perché?

Tutto ruota intorno alla sicurezza o meno del voto elettronico. Bolsonaro ne è un ardente critico, ed ha dichiarato di non voler riconoscere una sconfitta subita attraverso questo sistema elettorale.

Molti brasiliani sono d’accordo con lui: Il 51% della popolazione ha “poca o nessuna” fiducia nella regolarità del sistema elettorale.

Bolsonaro gode anche di un notevole supporto all’interno delle forze armate (dai gradi più bassi a quelli più alti) essendo stato egli stesso un militare e avendo collocato diversi militari in posizioni di potere; oltreché di una coorte di militanti sempre più armati, e dotati di una straordinaria capacità di mobilitazione: Nel settembre 2021, Bolsonaro porta in piazza mezzo milione di brasiliani, a suo sostegno nella faida con la Corte Suprema riguardante le politiche di gestione del covid.

Bolsonaro dunque ha sia il movente, che forse anche i mezzi – secondo le linee guida di Luttwak – per rimanere presidente con l’aiuto dei militari in caso di sconfitta alle elezioni; ma se scegliesse questa via potrebbe doversi scontrare con un avversario inaspettato per un regime militare sudamericano di estrema destra, con tendenze al liberismo sfrenato: Il governo degli Stati Uniti.

Lo scenario che si prefigurerebbe sarebbe diverso da quello boliviano del 2019, in cui la destra di Jeanine Anez, contestando la regolarità del voto, fece destituire il presidente eletto Evo Morales con un pronunciamento militare, per poi reprimere le proteste successive causando decine di morti e centinaia di feriti.

In quell’occasione, l’amministrazione Trump si schierò con i golpisti, e l’amministrazione Biden insediatasi in seguito mantenne la stessa linea.

Per Bolsonaro le cose non andrebbero così “bene”, e non solo a causa dell’antipatia personale che Biden e il presidente brasiliano uscente nutrono l’uno per l’altro. Il problema di Bolsonaro è di non avere dall’altra parte un Evo Morales, un avversario che sia ostile agli interessi angloamericani nel paese, o quantomeno più ostile di quanto lo sia lui stesso.

Gli Stati Uniti difficilmente rischierebbero di alimentare un’altra ondata di “yankee go home” per fornire copertura ad un Bolsonaro la cui politica estera è decisamente multipolare, che – al netto di una politica regionale ostile a Cuba e Venezuela, gradita a Washington – non segue con convinzione le iniziative di politica estera che la grande strategia americana richiede, come l’impegno nella guerra per procura in Ucraina e la guerra commerciale con la Cina. E che, a differenza dei generali durante la guerra fredda – che pure mantenevano lo stesso orientamento in politica estera – non reprimerebbe nel sangue una sinistra brasiliana largamente filosovietica e/o filocinese, come quella di Goulart prima (che sostenne Cuba durante la crisi dei missili) e dei rivoluzionari alla Marighella poi.

L’avversario di Bolsonaro – Ignacio Lula da Silva – al netto di “pericolose” quanto utopiche proposte di competizione contro il dollaro, rappresenta una sinistra la cui politica estera non differirebbe più di tanto da quella del presidente uscente, restando imperniata sugli stessi principi multilateralisti e neutralisti. In sostanza, l’incentivo geopolitico a supportare un golpe anti-Lula sarebbe molto basso, a fronte del danno diplomatico e d’immagine che Washington subirebbe.

Bolsonaro potrebbe tentare comunque di non riconoscere un’eventuale sconfitta alle elezioni e prendere il potere con la forza? Sì, ma non avrebbe gioco facile come i suoi predecessori degli anni ’60, riconosciuti come governo legittimo da Washington entro poche ore.

UNA POTENZA IN POTENZA

5% di sconto a vita su commissioni FTX, exchange di criptovalute

Ipotesi golpista permettendo, il Brasile che emergerà da queste elezioni, sotto il profilo delle relazioni internazionali, sarà lo stesso Brasile di sempre, a prescindere da chi vincerà le elezioni.

Un paese molto cauto e fautore del mondo multipolare; di una multipolarità che non intende sfruttare per avventure o tentazioni egemoniche – come la Turchia – ma in cui spera di ritagliarsi un’isola felice, forse anche una sfera d’influenza, senza però causare terremoti; nel mezzo del caos globale e interno.

Un paese le cui potenzialità nell’arena internazionale sono certamente frenate dalla costante instabilità domestica: Una disuguaglianza tra le più alte al mondo, violenza tra cartelli della droga e gruppi paramilitari, fette di territorio non controllate dallo stato centrale, tensione politica permanente che rischia ciclicamente di sfociare in guerra civile.

Un paese che anni fa sentii descrivere perfettamente dall’Avv. Diego Corrado, con l’espressione: “non è un paese per principianti“.

https://inimicizie.com/2022/10/16/b...XO1iYdZQn3ssps4B8HADtJQRo66iil7bU6TFM3iViVn3I
 
Avevamo chiesto a Diego Battistessa questo sguardo dall’altro lato dell’Atlantico sulle conseguenze del conflitto in Ucraina prima che venisse alla luce lo sventato golpe militare in Brasile – preventivo, orchestrato negli ambienti fascisti vicini al presidente in carica – volto a contrastare la probabile vittoria di Lula alle elezioni di ottobre; e non era ancora avvenuto il fallito attentato a Cristina Kirchner in Argentina; e nemmeno si era svolto il referendum sulla Costituzione cilena che doveva scardinare il lascito di Pinochet. Ma forse anche questi avvenimenti, dopo aver letto questa ricostruzione ragionata degli eventi collegabili al mondo latinoamericano, possono venire letti con lo scopo di schierare il Cono Sur – o sue parti –, da un lato o dall’altro.

OGzero
https://ogzero.org/ucraina-chiavi-d...Bq463ldhcuEGUC-6M0EQTWhSrB2hwSwetc1j6Xh-uqu5U
 
https://thegeopolitics.com/what-led-to-the-lebanon-and-israel-maritime-border-deal/

What Led to the Lebanon and Israel Maritime Border Deal?

Israel and Lebanon, two of the most bitter enemies, have finally reached an agreement over the location of their maritime border. The topic of who has the authority to drill for natural gas in disputed waters off the coast of the Mediterranean was the most important aspect of this deal. After more than a decade of mediation by the United States and some recent threats made by the Hezbollah in Lebanon, a compromise about drilling rights was finally struck. Additionally, it has been speculated that this transaction would be regarded as a “turning point” in the history books and that it will be beneficial to all parties involved. Additionally, it is the most significant step forward in terms of diplomatic relations between the two countries in recent times. On the other hand, recent developments in international politics have brought a number of previously resolved controversial issues back into the spotlight. All of these issues, from the crisis in Ukraine to the tensions in the Taiwan Strait, have deep roots in the past and are starting to resurface as issues that are relevant in the present day. The recent conflicts and sanctions imposed on the global economy have started to have an effect on the agricultural and energy sectors that has never been seen before. In addition to that, the economy of the globe has been impacted by a range of crises, such as inflation, food shortages, and the depletion of energy resources. When seen from this angle, the border deal between the two countries that have been at odds for a very long period demonstrates how vital it is to negotiate and search for a resolution.

The dispute

To comprehend this conflict and the border agreement, one must first grasp the international rules that underpin both. The authority of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is at the heart of the issue. States are entitled to a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) off their coast under this treaty. Lebanon adopted UNCLOS in 2011 and presented its proposed boundary to the UN. However, Israel never signed the pact but usually conforms to it and simultaneously presented its proposed boundary to the UN. On the other hand, Lebanon does not recognize Israel and has no diplomatic ties with it. Instead, when proposing treaties to the UN, Lebanon refers to Israel as “the state of Palestine,” and the two nations must depend on third parties to conclude agreements. And here is where the disagreement occurredThe deal

The parties have agreed to use the United States as a mediator in the event that cross-border deposits are discovered. The agreement also establishes, for the first time, a boundary between Lebanese and Israeli waterways, mostly along a delineation called Line 23. Since negotiating Line 23 would include giving up territory in the Karish field to the Israelis, splitting the Qana gas field, and lowering Lebanon’s share of Blocks 8 and 9, Lebanon was initially hostile to the idea. The deal states that Israel’ will keep all rights to develop the Karish field, while Lebanon will keep all rights to Qana (with one exception). Due to Qana’s extension southward over Line 23, Israel was able to get a royalty share via a separate arrangement with Total, the French company that operates Block 9. Moreover, in the future, unless already agreed upon bilaterally, neither party will submit any additional charts or coordinates to the United Nations.

Reasons behind the deal for Israel and Lebanon

Put an end to the border issue and start talking about peace

The deal clarifies the sea borders between the two countries, which have been a bone of contention between them for many years (though it does not touch the 50-mile Israel-Lebanon land border, which remains highly contested). Importantly, the maritime arrangement seems to have received the (grudging) acceptance of Hezbollah’s leadership, which has, for weeks, indicated support for the leadership of the Lebanese government in the negotiations. This is a significant development. An additional advantage of the deal for many Lebanese is that it improves energy access for the people of Lebanon. At the moment, the majority of residents in Lebanon have only two hours of power per day, so this deal will improve the residents’ quality of life and stability, albeit slightly, in a country that is experiencing a cascade of problems. Because of the agreement, the degree of tension that exists between Israel and Lebanon will decrease, and it will be less likely that these two countries would battle in the near future. Even though the agreement is limited and is not a peace deal between the two warring countries, it is still an important step forward because it shows that Lebanon recognizes Israel in a “soft” way. On the Lebanese side of things, the agreement was one of the few instances in which all of Lebanon’s various political groupings came to a consensus on anything.
To discover untapped natural resources

If the area in question were a completely uninhabited body of water, the maritime border dispute between Israel and Lebanon would be moot. There is oil and gas in the oceans off the coast of Israel. It is hypothesized that the waters off the coast of Lebanon contain some, with reserves believed to extend into the contested zone. Seismic research suggests that Lebanon’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) may contain 25 trillion cubic feet (tcfg) of natural gas. This would be a major windfall worth billions of euros for a state whose economy have been in a holding pattern for the last several decades.

An economic relief for Lebanon

This arrangement might signal the beginnings of a vital cash stream for Lebanon’s weak economy. Lebanon’s government is so split that the nation has been in a four-year financial crisis. This maritime border accord will considerably help Lebanon’s present crisis position. The accord would boost foreign trust and bring “hope” to Lebanon’s young people. The deal allows for gas development at the Qana prospect, which is located inside Lebanon’s exploration zone but crosses into Israeli waters. Despite the fact that the Qana gas field has yet to be completely explored, its potential richness is well acknowledged across Lebanon. If natural gas is found in Qana, drilling and exploration might commence in Lebanon via a collaboration led by Total, the French energy firm. In return, Lebanon would pay Israel royalties. The agreement is a positive move for Lebanon’s economy.

Israel’s plan of producing gas for Europe

Europe’s gas issue is worsening. Governments are doing all they can to protect customers from price increases, but the problem worsened when explosions damaged Nord Stream 1. It was Europe’s primary supplier of Russian gas. Israel has said that once a maritime agreement with Lebanon is reached, it would be able to begin producing oil and gas from its Karish field and exporting it to Europe within weeks. Israel’s caretaker Prime Minister Lapid has often mentioned the role Israel can play in assisting Europe as it attempts to wean itself from Russian energy.

A last-minute call just before the Israel’s election
In just over three weeks, Israel will have its sixth election in less than four years. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might return to power in the November 1 election, unseating the current centrist caretaker Prime Minister Lapid. According to Lapid, the agreement is “historic” and a “win” for Israel on both security and economic grounds. So, Lapid expects the accord to be a political boon for him.

Economic benefits for Israel

The deal is beneficial to Israel for a variety of economic and political reasons. Prime Minister Yair Lapid praised the agreement in his statement, calling it “a historic victory that will boost Israel’s security, infuse billions into Israel’s economy, and preserve the stability of our northern border.” In terms of economics, the arrangement provides Israel with around 17% of income from Lebanon’s Qana-Sidon gas field.

It’s not even close to being a peace accord. Israel, on the other hand, has high expectations that the pact would bring peace to the volatile region along its northern border, while Lebanon has high hopes that the potential gas it discovers will be able to fix the country’s failing energy infrastructure and ultimately infuse income into its weak economy. On both sides, this is seen as the first step in working together on a solution. This agreement demonstrates that even under circumstances in which peace cannot be achieved, major actions with wider-ranging ramifications and possibilities may be implemented. Also, this deal has the potential to be a game-changer since it may pave the way for Israel and Lebanon to make strides toward more engagement for peace with one another.
 
Art. molto interessante.... effettivamente che una casa editrice importante di psicologia pubblichi un libro controcorrente è raro.

Neuroscientist Explores How Dreams Could Predict Terror Attacks, Future Events: ‘Mental Time Travel’

There are rules in the physical world that don’t apply to the mental one. In a dream, you can fly. One can imagine a squirrel talking to one’s self. The realm of dreams and imagination is, however, often thought to be self-contained, with no tangible bearing on the real world.
But the study of precognition in dreams has taught cognitive neuroscientist Dr. Julia Mossbridge otherwise. She defines the term “precognition”, as “a kind of mental time travel into the future to get information.”
“We’re just so used to applying the rules of the physical world to the mental world that we don’t really get it that there are different rules. That’s a different domain,” she said.
“The separation that we have between people in space and the separation we have between events in time in the physical world—who says that has to apply to the mental world?”
Precognitive dreams suggest the mind doesn’t follow the rules we usually apply in the physical world, she added.
Mossbridge has been working with physicists and psychologists to figure out the rules of mental time travel. Her book, “Transcendent Mind,” co-authored with Dr. Imants Barušs, was published by the American Psychological Association in 2017.
Having a major scientific institution publish her book is a significant step forward for scientists who have seriously studied precognition, a “shared mind,” and other phenomena that suggest the mind exists beyond the brain.
Mossbridge’s personal experience with precognitive dreams started her on this research journey. She said that one such dream “knocked my socks off.”
She recounted having had a dream that accurately predicted an event in great detail.
At the time she had the dream, she was going through a divorce. She had a 5-year-old child and didn’t know where they would live. She thought of an area where she used to live and decided it would be nice to return there.
In the dream, she called a landlady whom she knows in the area. This landlady told her she had a two-story rental property available. The upstairs unit had been recently refurbished and was already occupied. The downstairs was being refurbished and would be ready in two months. The landlady said she could show Mossbridge around the upstairs so she could get an idea of what the downstairs would look like when finished. If Mossbridge were to sign the lease right away, she could pick the color of the paint.
In waking life, after the dream, Mossbridge didn’t call the landlady; she encountered her by chance instead. But several other minute details of the dream came true: the two-story property, the refurbishing, the two months until the bottom floor would be finished, picking the paint color—all of them.
“People both have dreams that seem mundane and dreams about things that are really important in their lives. Precognition works that way,” Mossbridge said. “But I’m kind of starting to get convinced that the things that seem mundane are not. That they’re more like signposts in your life. You don’t recognize them as important events, but later you go, ‘Oh yeah.’”
The first precognitive dream she recalls was one she had as a child. She dreamt that her friend lost her watch on the playground, and it happened the next day. It was a mundane event, but looking back, it seems pertinent to Mossbridge. The watch, representing time, became a topic central in her research later in life.
As a scientist, Mossbridge asks herself whether this is all confirmation bias. In science, confirmation bias generally means interpreting information in a way that confirms a preexisting belief. A meaningless dream could be “precognitive” if one looks back on it and intentionally searches for connections to events in waking life.
That’s why Mossbridge tests things scientifically. Experiments, she discovered, have shown that people sometimes unconsciously know what’s going to happen in the future.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/neuro...L+NCkXYMDSoeEn4LBi95lImklqFEmKA4MXXOfmoeYFIVM
 
Invictus25 ha scritto:
Art. molto interessante.... effettivamente che una casa editrice importante di psicologia pubblichi un libro controcorrente è raro.

Neuroscientist Explores How Dreams Could Predict Terror Attacks, Future Events: ‘Mental Time Travel’

There are rules in the physical world that don’t apply to the mental one. In a dream, you can fly. One can imagine a squirrel talking to one’s self. The realm of dreams and imagination is, however, often thought to be self-contained, with no tangible bearing on the real world.
But the study of precognition in dreams has taught cognitive neuroscientist Dr. Julia Mossbridge otherwise. She defines the term “precognition”, as “a kind of mental time travel into the future to get information.”
“We’re just so used to applying the rules of the physical world to the mental world that we don’t really get it that there are different rules. That’s a different domain,” she said.
“The separation that we have between people in space and the separation we have between events in time in the physical world—who says that has to apply to the mental world?”
Precognitive dreams suggest the mind doesn’t follow the rules we usually apply in the physical world, she added.
Mossbridge has been working with physicists and psychologists to figure out the rules of mental time travel. Her book, “Transcendent Mind,” co-authored with Dr. Imants Barušs, was published by the American Psychological Association in 2017.
Having a major scientific institution publish her book is a significant step forward for scientists who have seriously studied precognition, a “shared mind,” and other phenomena that suggest the mind exists beyond the brain.
Mossbridge’s personal experience with precognitive dreams started her on this research journey. She said that one such dream “knocked my socks off.”
She recounted having had a dream that accurately predicted an event in great detail.
At the time she had the dream, she was going through a divorce. She had a 5-year-old child and didn’t know where they would live. She thought of an area where she used to live and decided it would be nice to return there.
In the dream, she called a landlady whom she knows in the area. This landlady told her she had a two-story rental property available. The upstairs unit had been recently refurbished and was already occupied. The downstairs was being refurbished and would be ready in two months. The landlady said she could show Mossbridge around the upstairs so she could get an idea of what the downstairs would look like when finished. If Mossbridge were to sign the lease right away, she could pick the color of the paint.
In waking life, after the dream, Mossbridge didn’t call the landlady; she encountered her by chance instead. But several other minute details of the dream came true: the two-story property, the refurbishing, the two months until the bottom floor would be finished, picking the paint color—all of them.
“People both have dreams that seem mundane and dreams about things that are really important in their lives. Precognition works that way,” Mossbridge said. “But I’m kind of starting to get convinced that the things that seem mundane are not. That they’re more like signposts in your life. You don’t recognize them as important events, but later you go, ‘Oh yeah.’”
The first precognitive dream she recalls was one she had as a child. She dreamt that her friend lost her watch on the playground, and it happened the next day. It was a mundane event, but looking back, it seems pertinent to Mossbridge. The watch, representing time, became a topic central in her research later in life.
As a scientist, Mossbridge asks herself whether this is all confirmation bias. In science, confirmation bias generally means interpreting information in a way that confirms a preexisting belief. A meaningless dream could be “precognitive” if one looks back on it and intentionally searches for connections to events in waking life.
That’s why Mossbridge tests things scientifically. Experiments, she discovered, have shown that people sometimes unconsciously know what’s going to happen in the future.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/neuro...L+NCkXYMDSoeEn4LBi95lImklqFEmKA4MXXOfmoeYFIVM
Clicca per espandere...


She conducted a meta-analysis of experiments from seven independent laboratories, indicating that the human body reacts to future stimuli. When something is about to happen, a person unconsciously already knows about it. This unconscious response can be tested in a lab by measuring reactions in the nervous system, sweat glands, or heart rate.
Mossbridge described how this presentiment works in an analogy of a stick being dragged through water. The stick, representing an event, causes ripples on either side of it, representing the emotional disturbance we feel from the event. Ripples in front aren’t as pronounced, but those behind are larger. Similarly, the emotional response to events is more subtle before the event occurs than after.
She has also worked on experiments to show that people can use remote viewing and precognitive dreaming to predict stock market events and even terror attacks.
Predicting mass shootings or bombing attacks could be especially helpful in society. In 2015, Mossbridge had a precognitive dream about an ISIS bombing in Kuwait.
The dream occurred the same night it happened, and a lot of the details lined up. She saw it happening during a midday prayer; she saw the number 27, which was the number of people killed; she saw the letters “IS,” which stands for Islamic State. Some of the details didn’t align, though; she thought it was in Israel, not Kuwait.
Nonetheless, Mossbridge thinks that if people could share their premonitions on an online registry, it might help. If the registry received dozens of premonition accounts, all matching up in certain aspects, it could indicate an event is likely to occur.
People could avoid a certain location if enough people premonish the event at a particular time and place.
She also envisions a future with a central premonitions registry.
Although there have been some attempts to create such a registry, Mossbridge said, “They don’t seem to catch on because people can’t be out of the closet with this stuff. People are scared. If I were to tell someone about that dream about the bombing, if it was too much detail, they might be coming up to my house and saying, ‘So, you did this bombing.’”
According to Mossbridge, since we don’t know how to deal with such information yet, we call people who make premonitions crazy, or “more generously,” they are “seeing coincidences as something that’s meaningful, but they’re just coincidences.”
Thinking about time and transcendent mental abilities are among Mossbridge’s favorite things to do, though she also works on all kinds of other neat projects. Her roles include research director of the Mossbridge Institute, director of the Innovation Lab at the Institute of Noetic Sciences, and visiting scholar at Northwestern University.
Her daily tasks involve using compassionate robots to increase people’s happiness, developing apps to help people listen to their intuition and test their psychic abilities, and teaching Silicon Valley programmers take care of their minds.
 
Invictus25 ha scritto:
Predicting the unpredictable: critical analysis and practical implications of predictive anticipatory activity

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2014.00146/full
Clicca per espandere...

Part 1. The Evidence for Predictive Anticipatory Activity
- Criticisms of the Evidence for PAA;
- Order effects and expectation bias;
- Types of Anticipatory Physiological Activity.

Part 2. Potential Mechanisms for PAA and Implications of PAA
- Potential Mechanisms for PAA (Delayed conscious experience);
- Quantum biology;
- Implications of PAA for Physiology and Consciousness Research (Physiology);
- Consciousness.

Part 3. Potential Applications of PAA Sensing Tools

-Potential Roadblocks to Designing Reliable PAA Sensing Tools;
-Recommendations for Designing Reliable PAA-Sensing Tools;


Summary and Conclusions

In summary we have made the following points in this article.

• PAA, the predictive physiological anticipation of a truly randomly selected and thus unpredictable future event, has been under investigation for more than three decades, and a recent conservative meta-analysis suggests that the phenomenon is real.

• Neither QRP, expectation bias, nor physiological artifacts seem to be able to explain PAA.

• The mechanisms underlying PAA are not yet clear, but two viable yet difficult-to-test hypotheses are that quantum processes are involved in human physiology or that they reflect fundamental time symmetries inherent in the physical world.

• The evidence indicates that there is a temporal mirroring between pre- and post-event physiological events, so that the nature of the post-event physiological response is a reflection of the characteristics of the PAA for that event.

• Temporal blurring, in which closely overlapped emotional events may confuse or minimize both post-event responses and PAA before the event, may be a critical factor in isolating and amplifying PAA. %However, the noise introduced by this blurring may be limited by strictly “closing the temporal loop” between pre-stimulus and post-stimulus responses.

• The principles of temporal mirroring and temporal blurring both guide the recommendations for designing reliable PAASTs.

• Future research with multiple stimulus modalities, long inter-trial intervals, multiple individuals simultaneously exposed to the same stimulus, and machine-learning techniques will advance our understanding of the nature of PAA and allow a better harnessing of the delay before future events unfold.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2014.00146/full#h2
 
https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz...unwillingness-to-sell-weapons-to-ukraine/amp/

In a rare expression of unity between coalition and opposition figures, Defense Minister Benny Gantz and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday both expressed an unwillingness to alter Israel’s policy of not sending defense equipment to Ukraine.

“We are not selling weapons to Ukraine,” Gantz told the ultra-Orthodox Kol Chai radio station, noting instead the humanitarian aid Israel has been providing, and vowing to continue such shipments months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
 
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/10/22/russias-homage-to-nord-stream-pipelines/


Russia’s Homage to Nord Stream Pipelines
Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on OCTOBER 22, 2022

Who stands to gain? First pictures of Nord Stream pipeline show 50 metre hole after “powerful explosions” confirming sabotage.
David Brinkley, the legendary American newscaster with a career that spanned an amazing fifty-four years from World War II once said that a successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks others have thrown at him. How many American statesmen ever practised this noble thought inherited from Jesus Christ remains doubtful.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stunning proposal to Turkish President Recep Erdogan to build a gas pipeline to Turkiye to create an international hub from which Russian gas can be supplied to Europe breathes fresh life into this very “Gandhian” thought.
Putin discussed the idea with Erdogan at their meeting in Astana on October 13 and since spoke about it at the Russian Energy Week forum last week where he proposed creating the largest gas hub in Europe in Turkey and redirecting the volume of gas, the transit of which is no longer possible through the Nord Stream, to this hub.
Putin said it may imply building another gas pipeline system to feed the hub in Turkiye, through which gas will be supplied to third countries, primarily European ones, “if they are interested.”
Prima facie, Putin does not expect any positive response from Berlin to his standing proposal to use the string of the Nord Stream 2, which remained undamaged, to supply 27.5 billion cu. metres of gas through the winter months. Germany’s deafening silence is understandable. Chancellor Off Scholz is terrified about President Biden’s wrath.
Berlin says it knows who sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines but won’t reveal it as it affects Germany’s national security! Sweden too pleads that the matter is far too sensitive for it to share the evidence it has collected with any country, including Germany! Biden has put the fear of God into the minds of these timid European “allies” who have been left in no doubt what is good for them! The western media too is ordered to play down Nord Steam saga so that with the passage of time, public memory will fade away.
However, Russia has done its homework that Europe cannot do without Russia gas, the present bravado of self-denial notwithstanding. Simply put, the European industries depend on cheap, reliable supplies of Russian for their products to remain competitive in the world market.
Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi said last week that he cannot envisage a future where “zero Russian gas” flows to Europe. He noted acerbically, “ If that’s the case, then I think the problem is going to be huge and for a very long time. You just don’t have enough volume to bring (in) to replace that (Russian) gas for the long term, unless you’re saying ‘I’m going to be building huge nuclear (plants), I’m going to allow coal, I’m going to burn fuel oils.’”
Quintessentially, Russia plans to replace its gas hub in Haidach in Austria (which Austrians seized in July.) Conceivably, the hub in Turkiye has a ready market in Southern Europe, including Greece and Italy. But there is more to it than meets the eye.
Succinctly put, Putin has made a strategic move in the geopolitics of gas. His initiative rubbishes the hare-brained idea of the Russophobic European Commission bureaucrats in Brussels, headed by Ursula von der Leyen, to impose a price cap on gas purchases. It makes nonsense of the US’ and EU’s plans to put down Russia’s profile as a gas superpower.
Logically, the next step for Russia should be to align with Qatar, the world’s second biggest gas exporter. Qatar is a close ally of Turkey, too. At Astana recently, on the sidelines of the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), Putin held a closed-door meeting with the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. They agreed to follow up with another meeting soon in Russia.
Russia already has a framework of cooperation with Iran in a number of joint projects in the oil and gas industry. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak recently disclosed plans to conclude an oil and gas swap deal with Iran by the end of the year. He said that “technical details are being worked out – issues of transport, logistics, price, and tariff formation.”
Now, Russia, Qatar and Iran together account for more than half of the world’s entire proven gas reserves. Time is approaching for them to intensify cooperation and coordination on the pattern of the OPEC Plus. All three countries are represented in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
Putin’s proposal appeals to Turkiye’s longstanding dream to become an energy hub at the doorstep of Europe. Unsurprisingly, Erdogan instinctively warmed up to Putin’s proposal. Addressing the ruling party members in the Turkish parliament this week, Erdogan said, “In Europe they are now dealing with the question of how to stay warm in the coming winter. We don’t have such a problem. We have agreed with Vladimir Putin to create a gas hub in our country, through which natural gas, as he says, can be delivered to Europe. Thus, Europe will order gas from Turkey.”
Apart from strengthening own energy security, Turkiye also can contribute to Europe’s. No doubt, Turkiye’s importance will take a quantum leap in the EU foreign policy calculus, while also strengthening its strategic autonomy in regional politics. This is a huge step forward in Erdogan’s geo-strategy — the geographic direction of Turkish foreign policy under his watch.
From the Russian viewpoint, of course, Turkiye’s strategic autonomy and its grit to pursue independent foreign policies works splendidly for Moscow in the present conditions of western sanctions. Conceivably, Russian companies will start viewing Turkiye as a production base where western technologies become accessible. Turkiye has a customs union agreement with the EU, which completely removes customs duties on all industrial goods of Turkish origin. (See my blog Russia-Turkey reset eases regional tensions, Aug 9, 2022)
In geopolitical terms, Moscow is comfortable with Turkiye’s NATO membership. Clearly, the proposed gas hub brings much additional income to Turkiye and will impart greater stability and predictability to the Russia-Turkey relations. Indeed, the strategic links that tie the two countries together are steadily lengthening — the S-400 ABM deal, cooperation in Syria, the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, Turk-stream gas pipeline, to name a few.
The two countries candidly admit that they have differences of opinion, but the way Putin and Erdogan through constructive diplomacy keep turning adverse circumstances into windows of opportunity for “win-win” cooperation is simply amazing.
It does need ingenuity to get the US’ European allies source Russian gas without any coercion or boorishness even after Washington buried the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the depths of the Baltic Sea. There is dramatic irony that a NATO power is partnering Russia in this direction.
The US foreign policy elite drawn from East European stock are rendered speechless by the sheer sophistication of the Russian ingenuity to bypass without any trace of rancour the shabby way the US and its allies — Germany and Sweden, in particular — slammed the door shut on Moscow to even take a look at the damaged multi-billion dollar pipelines that it had built in good faith in the depths of the Baltic Sea at the instance of two German chancellors, Gerhard Schroeder and Angela Merkel.
The current German leadership of Chancellor Olaf Scholz looks very foolish and cowardly– and provincial. The European Commission’s Ursula von der Leyen gets a huge rebuff in all this which will ultimately define her tragic legacy in Brussels as a flag carrier for American interests. This becomes probably the first case study for historians on how multipolarity will work in the world order.
 
Devi accedere o registrarti per poter rispondere.
Indietro