Tvix........... 2015 >>> volatilita'

[espa]

Ecco arrivato .......... cosa farà dopo ??????????
(TVIX) VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX Short-Term ETN - VelocityShares

Credit Suisse AG Announces the Reverse Split of its TVIX ETN - Yahoo Finance

Credit Suisse AG Announces the Reverse Split of its TVIX ETN
[PR Newswire] August 2, 2016

NEW YORK, Aug. 2, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Credit Suisse AG announced today that it will implement a 1-for-25 reverse split of its VelocityShares™ Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETN ("TVIX"), expected to be effective as of August 9, 2016.

On August 11, 2016, holders of record will receive one reverse split-adjusted ETN for every twenty-five units of TVIX. In addition, such holders of record that hold a number of units of ETNs not evenly divisible by twenty-five will receive a cash payment for any fractional number of units remaining of TVIX (the "partials"). The cash amount due on any partials will be determined on August 15, 2016, based on the closing indicative value of TVIX on such date and will be paid by Credit Suisse AG on August 22, 2016.

The closing indicative value of TVIX on August 8, 2016 will be multiplied by twenty-five to determine its reverse split-adjusted closing indicative value. The reverse split will be effective at the open of trading on August 9, 2016 and TVIX will begin trading on the NASDAQ Stock Market on a reverse split-adjusted basis on such date. Following the reverse split, TVIX will have a new CUSIP but will retain the same ticker symbol.

The reverse split will affect the trading denominations of TVIX but it will not have any effect on the principal amount of the underlying notes, except that the aggregate principal amount will be reduced by an amount equal to the aggregate principal amount of the partials.

None of the other ETNs offered by Credit Suisse AG are affected by these announcements.

Reverse Split
Ticker Symbol
CUSIP / New CUSIP

VelocityShares™ Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETN due December 4, 2030

TVIX 22539T423 / 22539T274

che succedera'? dici...io sempre x cercare di ragionare con cauti e incauti investitori su questo stock, penso non si tratti di una pallina che gira in una roulette del casino', bensi' il risultato, la conseguenza dei dati economici che minuto x minuto vengono snocciolati sulle condizioni delle economie...noi stiamo in eu ma i dati che muovono tvix sono quelli dell'economia usa. oggi l'economia usa ha il massimo interesse a fornire buoni dati, non solo nell'interesse locale ma anche a fronte della competizione mondiale e segnatamente con l'europa. l'europa non sembra viaggiare col vento in poppa e questo di per se gia' favorisce l'economia usa.
io penso percio' che nel prossimo futuro, ci potranno essere singole giornate con indici rossi in usa, ma nel complesso quella economia,tornera' a guidare l'andamento mondiale...immagino percio' che le cose x chi punta sulla volatilita' in usa non saranno complessivamente favorevoli.

oggi in eu dati economici sostanzialmente in linea con le attese, adesso la palla passa oltreatlantico con 2 dati importanti: occupazione agricola e indice ism rispettivamente alle 14,15 e alle 16...alle 16,30 c'e' il dato sulle scorte di petrolio...vedremo.

 

[optiontrader80]

che succedera'? dici...io sempre x cercare di ragionare con cauti e incauti investitori su questo stock, penso non si tratti di una pallina che gira in una roulette del casino', bensi' il risultato, la conseguenza dei dati economici che minuto x minuto vengono snocciolati sulle condizioni delle economie...noi stiamo in eu ma i dati che muovono tvix sono quelli dell'economia usa. oggi l'economia usa ha il massimo interesse a fornire buoni dati, non solo nell'interesse locale ma anche a fronte della competizione mondiale e segnatamente con l'europa. l'europa non sembra viaggiare col vento in poppa e questo di per se gia' favorisce l'economia usa.
io penso percio' che nel prossimo futuro, ci potranno essere singole giornate con indici rossi in usa, ma nel complesso quella economia,tornera' a guidare l'andamento mondiale...immagino percio' che le cose x chi punta sulla volatilita' in usa non saranno complessivamente favorevoli.

oggi in eu dati economici sostanzialmente in linea con le attese, adesso la palla passa oltreatlantico con 2 dati importanti: occupazione agricola e indice ism rispettivamente alle 14,15 e alle 16...alle 16,30 c'e' il dato sulle scorte di petrolio...vedremo.

Concordo pienamente. Ero entrato a 3,5 pensando a qualche folata post brexit e sono rimasto incastrato. Secondo me andrà a finire in prossimità dello zero perchè tra poco lo S&P si spingerà a 2400 e oltre. Maledico il giorno che non sono uscito subito.

 

[espa]

Concordo pienamente. Ero entrato a 3,5 pensando a qualche folata post brexit e sono rimasto incastrato. Secondo me andrà a finire in prossimità dello zero perchè tra poco lo S&P si spingerà a 2400 e oltre. Maledico il giorno che non sono uscito subito.

hai commesso l'errore di fondo, che bada bene non e' la puntatina sullo stock tvix, ma e' il metodo di approccio a questo titolo inverso x 2...io pure lo ho affrontato nello stesso modo ma dopo 2 gg ho capito che se si aspetta il vento favorevole x quando arriva ci trova morti...ripeto il titolo e' da scalper...nei giorni favorevoli si possono realizzare 1/2/3 entrate/uscite giornaliere, nei gg negativi si devono chiudere gli occhi e fuggire senza voltarsi, la sera, a meno di casi eccezionali, si deve uscire, l'inizio delle contrattazioni del giorno successivo, offre sempre l'opportunita' di scelta se rientrare o meno, tra l'altro il titolo si muove x cent, sono sufficienti 1300 azioni x muovere l'intero ammontare delle commissioni a ogni spostamento.

 

[espa]

non che voglia dir molto ma.....

Mercati: dove puntare? Stati Uniti meglio dell'Europa (analisti)

L'incertezza legata alla Brexit e i rischi per i prossimi appuntamenti politici (non solo in Italia) potrebbero pesare sull'economia del Vecchio continente. Meglio quindi tenersi alla larga e puntare sul mercato degli Stati Uniti. E' il suggerimento che arriva da Patrick Moonen, principal strategist multi-asset a NN Investment Partners. L'analista spiega di seguito perché il mercato degli Stati Uniti è meglio dell'Europa e individua quali settori potrebbero sovraperformare

 

[amedeo8]

Trimestrali USA non così buone ( loro avevano ristrutturato come si DEVE 500banche chiuse riduzione paghe licenziamenti ecc.ecc.
adesso si salvano ....... mettendo earning attesi bassi eeee facendo meglio ???
occupazione al palo
dollaro troppo forte
sono 8 anni che la borsa cresce ???
hanno inondato di liquidità / ma dovranno pagare !!!

dopo il R/S di anno scorso 1/10 (come i 2 precedenti) è salita dopo 2 mesi

perchè 1/25 dopo che Goldman Sachs says stay away from stocks for the next three months - MarketWatch

ETF che seguono sp500 hanno fatto il contrario del R/S
Lo farà anche TVIX se crolla il mercato ???

 

[espa]

Trimestrali USA non così buone ( loro avevano ristrutturato come si DEVE 500banche chiuse riduzione paghe licenziamenti ecc.ecc.
adesso si salvano ....... mettendo earning attesi bassi eeee facendo meglio ???
occupazione al palo
dollaro troppo forte
sono 8 anni che la borsa cresce ???
hanno inondato di liquidità / ma dovranno pagare !!!

/QUOTE]trovo che un investitore esperto dovrebbe risolvere con facilita' questo dilemma...c'e' l'economia usa e lo stock che nereplica l'andamento al contrario con velocita' doppia.
se l'andamento continuasse a essere buono, in pochi giorni distruggerebbe l'investimento, se come probabilmente avverra', alcuni giorni buoni altri incerti, l'investimento viene decurtato piu' o meno velocemente dalla crescita economica che in una certa misura si realizza, e dal contango significativo stimato al 14% presente su tvix...nell'ipotesi che la ruota si inverte che l'economia rallenta fino a invertire il trend, in questo caso c'e' tutto il tempo x decidere di entrare sul titolo, l'unico caso imponderabile, e' lo scoppio di una calamita', di una guerra che nessuno si augura ma su cui nessuno credo possa ragionevolmente puntare. allora che fare? l'approccio logico a questo strumento e' una operativita' dove giorno x giorno, in base ai dati economici che investing.com ci trasmette con puntualita', decidere se entrare o starne fuori e se si entra, realizzare in giornata, poi domani altro giorno altra valutazione. a me non mi sembra ci siano altre possibilita' se si vuole ragionevolmente approcciare lo strumento e contenere il rischio.

 

[amedeo8]

Next TVIX Reverse Split—August 9th, 2016 - Six Figure Investing

Monthly and Yearly Decay Rates for Long Volatility Funds - Six Figure Investing

U.S. Equities: Could We See More Downside? - Bloomberg

 

[espa]

occhio a questo stock...PUO' MANGIARSI L'INTERO CAPITALE IN UNA SETTIMANA...quando si riscontra l'opportunita' favorevole, con giornata no dei listini, entrare e uscire lo stesso giorno, del doman non v'e' certezza.

 

[amedeo8]

occhio a questo stock...PUO' MANGIARSI L'INTERO CAPITALE IN UNA SETTIMANA...quando si riscontra l'opportunita' favorevole, con giornata no dei listini, entrare e uscire lo stesso giorno, del doman non v'e' certezza.

Giusto quasi sempre ...........ma se prende il trend........ si può rischiare qualche giorno !

siamo nel periodo a maggior volatilità......... vedremo ???

 

[amedeo8]

 

[amedeo8]

Something just happened in the stock market that was a precursor to the 1987 crash
August 4, 2016

After breaking all-time highs, the stock market has been on a bit of a losing streak lately.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 8 of the past 9 days, including the past 7 days straight. The index has only given back 1.5% in that time, but the consistent downward moves do not portend good things on the horizon.

According to Tom Leveroni of Nautilus Investment Research, this is only the 10th time since the start of the 20th century that the Dow has had such a downward streak and it historically has had negative connotations.

“Asterisk aside, this pattern has not been good historically,” said Leveroni in a note to clients Wednesday morning. “The Dow closed lower 1 month and 1 year later in 6 of the 9 occurrences since 1900 with 5 signals precisely marking cyclical tops (1901, 1919, 1966, 1976 and 1987). ”

The historical average loss for the Dow after a 8 for 9 day losing streak over the last nine times this happened was 0.94% in the next week, a loss of 4.42% over the next 3 months, and a 6.39% loss over the next 6 months. The worst such loss was a 31.06% drop after a signal on November 14, 1919.

Leveroni, however, also believes in the contrarian’s constant refrain: this time it’s different.

“For now, we are merely reporting this observation. For now, it does not trump the many bullish factors we have cited over the past few months and we still expect any further decline here will be a buying opportunity,” Leveroni concluded.

https://nworeport.me/2016/08/04/som...arket-that-was-a-precursor-to-the-1987-crash/

 

[amedeo8]

Deutsche Bank: The ‘zombie bank’ that may trigger a crisis
Deutsche’s challenges may trigger domino effect across already-weak Europe

By Sarah Diaa, Staff Reporter
14:14 August 4, 2016

Abu Dhabi: While investors and analysts around the world fret about Italy’s banking crisis, there is an even bigger problem hiding in plain sight that just might trigger the next financial collapse; Deutsche Bank.

Last week, Deutsche Bank reported €256 million (Dh1.04 billion) in net profit for the first half of 2016, marking an 81 per cent decline from the €1.38 billion reported in the same half of 2015. Profits for the second quarter alone were €20 million — down 98 per cent from the €818 million recorded in the second quarter of 2015.

For a bank of its size (Deutsche Bank’s investment arm represents one of Europe’s biggest investment banks), this spells trouble, if not the beginning of a long domino effect comparable to the one Lehman Brothers started.

The Lehman Brothers analogy might be misleading, though, because Deutsche’s assets dwarf Lehman’s — the former has €1.8 trillion in assets whereas Lehman, for all the damage it started, had $600 billion (€537 billion) in assets.

Christopher Dembik, head of macro analysis at Saxo Bank, said that Deutsche faces two main challenges; high dependence on investment banking activities at the expense of retail banking, and a huge derivatives exposure of circa $60 trillion.

“[The derivatives exposure] represents almost 24 times the German GDP (Gross domestic Product) and is almost equivalent to the global GDP. If a loss of 0.1 per cent on its gross derivatives exposure happens, Deutsche Bank may be forced to ask for financial aid from the German state.



The direct consequence of this rescue plan would be an increase by at least 10 basis points of the German public debt,” he said.

Enough deposits

As for the bank’s other hurdle (dependence on investment banking), while investment banking offers higher revenues, it has led to Deutsche Bank not having enough deposits today.

The bank’s second quarter of 2016 financial report shows it has around €566 billion in deposits. By comparison, Bank of America, whose assets (at $2.19 trillion) are quite on par with Deutsche’s, has $1.2 trillion in deposits.

Deposits are considered a cushion against volatility and macroeconomic challenges, meaning Deutsche, which is already facing trouble, is too fragile to face any new fluctuations in financial markets.

In 2015, Deutsche Bank reported €6.8 billion in net losses for the full year, marking a significant plunge from the €1.7 billion in net profit reported in 2014.

The losses in 2015 are even larger than those the bank recorded in the midst of the global financial crisis. In 2008, Deutsche reported €3.9 billion in net losses. At the peak of the global financial crisis back in 2008-2009, Deutsche Bank’s share prices fell to a low of nearly €15 per share. Today, they’re trading at around €11.

While most analysts do agree that Deutsche represents massive risk to the European banking industry, they also agree that the bank is unlikely to ever go bankrupt as the German government will probably keep injecting it with liquidity.

“Deutsche Bank needs a lot more capital, and it’s going to find it very difficult to go to shareholders for that because the outlook for its earnings is so weak … Eventually, something will have to be done with it. Nobody wants to buy it because its balance sheet is so weak and it’s probably got lots of bad loans on its books, so I don’t see any immediate way that that situation can be reversed,” said Tom Elliot, International Investment strategist at deVere Group, a financial consultancy.

Spread too thin

Elliot described Deutsche as a “zombie bank” that expanded too much too quickly and didn’t crash when it should have.

He also told Gulf News the bank has “spread itself too thinly” as it doesn’t have a dominant role in any one branch of banking even in Germany where it is based.

He doesn’t think, however, that Deutsche will be the beginning of another financial crisis simply because “there is no way the Bundesbank in the German government will refuse to save Deutsche” the way the US government refused to save Lehman Brothers in 2008.

“You might ask why any bank should get continued support from taxpayers when the German government wouldn’t support a small [manufacturer]. Well, the banking system needs for banks not to fail suddenly or fail at all, and in that way, banks are part of a social structure,” Elliot said.

MORE FROM BANKING
Deutsche may live off German government
02:23 PM
High impairment, litigation charges hit Deutsche
02:19 PM

 

[amedeo8]

TVIX ......... 08:28 $ 1.05 ---------- 33,949,321
/ USA 255mila posti di lavoro> meglio del previsto

p.s. aumento tassi ?????????

 

[amedeo8]

 

[amedeo8]

http://pro.strategicinvestment.com/NDPCOL6/PNDPS510/?h=true

80% Stock Market Crash To Strike in 2016, Economist Warns
BY JL YASTINE August 1, 2016
Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash.

Billionaire Carl Icahn, for example, recently raised a red flag on a national broadcast when he declared, “The public is walking into a trap again as they did in 2007.”

And the prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”

Smithers backs up his prediction using a ratio which proves that the only time in history stocks were this risky was 1929 and 1999. And we all know what happened next. Stocks fell by 89% and 50%, respectively.

Even the Royal Bank of Scotland says the markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the 2008 crisis. They told their clients to “Sell Everything” because “in a crowded hall, the exit doors are small.”

Stocks like Apple, will plunge.

But there is one distinct warning that should send chills down your spine … that of James Dale Davidson. Davidson is the famed economist who correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007.

Davidson now warns, “There are three key economic indicators screaming SELL. They don’t imply that a 50% collapse is looming – it’s already at our doorstep.”

And if Davidson calls for a 50% market correction, one should pay heed.

Editor’s Note: American seniors have been worried about our nation’s ability to continue to pay out Social Security. Leaked Reports.

Indeed, his predictions have been so accurate, he’s been invited to shake hands and counsel the likes of former presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton — and he’s had the good fortune to befriend and convene with George Bush Sr., Steve Forbes, Donald Trump, Margaret Thatcher, Sir Roger Douglas and even Boris Yeltsin.

They know that when Davidson makes a prediction, he backs it up. True to form, in a new controversial video, Davidson uses 20 unquestionable charts to prove his point that a 50% stock market crash is here.

Most alarming of all, is what Davidson says will cause the collapse. It has nothing to do with the China meltdown, Wall Street speculation or even the presidential election. Instead, it is linked back to a little-known economic “curse” that our Founding Fathers warned our elected officials about … a curse that was recently triggered.

And although our future may seem bleak, as Davidson says, “There is no need to fall victim to the future. If you are on the right side of what’s ahead, you could seize opportunities that come along once, maybe twice, in a lifetime.”

Perhaps most importantly, in this new video presentation, Davidson reveals what he and his family are doing to prepare right now. (It’s unconventional and even controversial, but proven to work.)

While Davidson intended the video for a private audience only, original viewers leaked it out and now thousands view this video every day.

One anonymous viewer wrote: “Davidson uses clear evidence that spells out the looming collapse, and he does it in a simple language that anyone can understand.” (Indeed, Davidson uses a sandcastle, a $5 bill, and straightforward analogies to prove his points.)

 

[espa]

TVIX ......... 08:28 $ 1.05 ---------- 33,949,321
/ USA 255mila posti di lavoro> meglio del previsto

p.s. aumento tassi ?????????

attenzione a come leggiamo i dati economici, in questi giorni sono usciti i dati pil dei vari paesi, dappertutto deludenti e inferiori alle attese...i pessimisti ci leggono fasi difficili future e invogliano a incrementare gli strumenti a favore della volatilita'...PENSO SIA UN GRAVE ERRORE...le economie mondiali nel complesso crescono seppur di poco, e quel poco e' sufficiente a mantenere la barca senza imbarcare acqua e a far crescere le economie che meglio gestiscono la fase, percio' di norma: ALLA LARGA DA TVIX...
la strategia che personalmente attuo e' la lettura dei futures mondiali e se rossi al mattino si puo' valutare un ingresso rigorosamente giornaliero sullo stock.

 

[optiontrader80]

la strategia che personalmente attuo e' la lettura dei futures mondiali e se rossi al mattino si puo' valutare un ingresso rigorosamente giornaliero sullo stock.

Ottima strategia. Il problema per quanto mi riguarda è che in questo momento ce l'ho sul groppone da 3,5 e non so se uscire chiudendo con una grossa perdita, il chè mi roderebbe non poco, oppure aspettare nella speranza di qualche breve periodo di trambusto che potrebbe arrivare, per giunta, quando oramai il titolo è devastato. Anche perchè sono sicuro che se esco non ci rientro più con questa schifezza.

 

[espa]

Ottima strategia. Il problema per quanto mi riguarda è che in questo momento ce l'ho sul groppone da 3,5 e non so se uscire chiudendo con una grossa perdita, il chè mi roderebbe non poco, oppure aspettare nella speranza di qualche breve periodo di trambusto che potrebbe arrivare, per giunta, quando oramai il titolo è devastato. Anche perchè sono sicuro che se esco non ci rientro più con questa schifezza.

l'augurio che ti faccio, e' aver investito una cifra contenuta.
la gestione e l'accettazione del loss con un suo eventuale taglio, e' uno dei problemi grandi dell'investitore, ci siamo passati tutti...se posso dirlo pero', quando si gioca contrarian e a velocita' doppia, si gioca "contronatura"...l'aspirazione economica dell'uomo e' la crescita

 

[amedeo8]

8milioni x 25 = 200milioni di azioni scambiate

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/marc-faber-sp-is-set-to-crash-50-giving-back-5-years-of-gains.html

 

[amedeo8]

Soaring Debt Has U.S. Companies as Vulnerable to Default as 2008

Christopher Olsen
August 9, 2016 — 6:13 PM EDT

U.S. companies have taken on so much debt that they’re at least as vulnerable to defaults and downgrades as they were leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, according to a report by S&P Global Ratings Tuesday.

Corporate leverage in the U.S., excluding financial firms, is at the highest level in 10 years, driven by a combination of low interest rates and slowing profits, S&P analysts Jacob Crooks and David Tesher wrote. This has resulted in record leverage ratios across a universe of 2,200 companies, they wrote.

Junk-rated firms are particularly at risk because the credit cycle may have peaked and future tightening in interest rates could shut the spigot on new borrowings right when the companies would want to refinance their debt.


“With the level of leverage that we’re seeing, some of these more-peripheral stressed sectors are going to experience some challenges to obtain new financing as well as refinancing,” Tesher said in an interview. “It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when.”

Meanwhile, bondholders who are searching for yield are increasingly willing to accept less compensation and weaker protections than than in the past -- leaving them more vulnerable to losses in a potential downturn.

Many companies have taken on debt in order to fund mergers and in effect “purchase revenue streams,” the report noted. Cheap debt has enabled firms to complete some of the biggest debt financed acquisitions ever, such as Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA’s $108 billion takeover of SABMiller PLC and Dell Inc.’s $67 billion purchase of EMC Corp.

“Organic revenue growth has been a challenge through this recovery,” Tesher said, adding that other revenue-boosting moves like cost-cutting have largely been exhausted. “What we’ve seen is some companies were turning to M&A, strategic M&A in particular, to effectively continue their revenue growth.”