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Agrokor 9,875% 5/2019 isin XS0776111188

ZAGREB (Croatia), January 9 (SeeNews) - Moody's Investor Services said it has downgraded its corporate family rating (CFR) of Croatian retailer and food manufacturer Agrokor to B3 from B2 and its probability of default rating (PDR) to B3-PD from B1-PD.At the same time, Moody's has downgraded the senior unsecured rating assigned to the notes issued by Agrokor and due in 2019 and 2020 to B3 from B2. The outlook on all ratings is stable, the rating's agency said in a statement last week."The downgrade reflects our view that Agrokor is not likely to restore credit ratios in line with our previous requirements for a B2 rating in light of the deterioration in operating performance that occurred during the first nine months of 2016", Vincent Gusdorf, vice president -- senior analyst at Moody's is quoted as saying. "However, the stable outlook reflects our expectations that Agrokor will stabilize its earnings over the next 12 months despite fierce competition in Croatia and Slovenia", he added.Moody's also said in the statement:"Moody's forecasts that the adjusted debt to EBITDA of the Agrokor group will reach 6.8x at the end of 2016 and 6.9x in 2017, and 6.2x and 6.3x for the restricted group. This compares with our previous expectations of a Moody's-adjusted leverage ratio of below 5.5x to maintain the rating at B2. The rating agency also believes that slow earnings growth will constrain deleveraging over the next 12 months at constant scope.Agrokor has low interest coverage ratios. Moody's forecasts that its adjusted EBITDA-to-interest ratio will remain at just 2x over the next 12 months and that Moody's-adjusted EBIT-to-interest ratio will stay at about 1x, a level which is deemed low for a rating in the single B category.High capital expenditures and interest expenses weigh on Agrokor's cash flow generation. Although Moody's estimates that Agrokor will post about HRK700 million of positive free cash flows (as defined by Moody's) in 2016 thanks to a reduction of working capital, the rating agency forecasts that free cash flows will be close to zero in 2017 and in 2018. In addition, the historically high free cash flow generation forecasted in 2016 will translate into a free cash flow-to-debt ratio of only 2%, which is low for a B2 rating. That said, Moody's cautions that Agrokor's cash flow generation is somewhat difficult to assess with accuracy considering that the company's consolidated cash flow statement includes several undisclosed non-cash items.Moreover, Moody's has recently revised its assessment on the PIK toggle loans issued by its holding company Adria (unrated) and has decided to include them in its adjusted debt calculation even though they sit above the restricted group. This is because the new documentation of certain bank facilities refinanced between September and November 2016 indicate that the outstanding loans may become immediately due and payable if the PIK toggle loans are not refinanced by 8 March 2018. This is tantamount to a cross acceleration provision, in our view. The PIK toggle loans also mature before the bank facilities of the restricted group, which come due between 2018 and 2021.The inclusion of the PIK Toggle loans to Agrokor's Moody's-adjusted debt adds approximately 0.7x to its leverage ratio. Excluding this adjustment, Agrokor's debt-to-EBITDA stood at 6.0x at the group level on 30 September 2016 and at 5.6x at the restricted group level and are not expected to improve over the next 12 months. These levels are no longer commensurate with our prior expectations for the B2 rating of below 5.5x.Moody's now views Agrokor's liquidity position as adequate. In November 2016, it agreed with VTB Bank (Austria) (unrated) to postpone the maturity of €340 million worth of debt. This follows the extension in maturity of €500 million worth of debt issued by a pool of large international banks which was announced last September. In both transactions, Agrokor increased its debt maturities by two to three years and, as a result, the majority of the debt repayments will occur after 2019. Having said that, and in light of the provision presently included in Agrokor's credit agreements, failing to refinance the PIK toggle loans issued by Adria by 8 March 2018 could trigger an acceleration of certain of the bank facilities.Agrokor's external sources of liquidity are limited. It has no committed credit facilities maturing beyond 12 months although it has access to short-term bilateral facilities. Agrokor has set up a commercial paper program of $500 million but its availability is subject to market conditions.RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOKThe stable outlook reflects our view that Agrokor will gradually stabilize its consolidated EBITDA in the coming quarters thanks to better economic conditions and higher traffic. It is also based on the assumption that the company will maintain an adequate liquidity profile and that it will refinance the PIK toggle loans issued by Adria in a timely manner. The B3 rating does not incorporate any additional debt-funded acquisition.WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING -- UP/DOWNMoody's could upgrade Agrokor's ratings if it managed to reduce its Moody's-adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 5.5x. Such a scenario could unfold for instance if further improvement in economic conditions combined with market share gains led to a substantial increase in EBITDA.However Moody's cautions that upward pressure would also be subject to potential changes in the group structure. For instance, we may revise our debt-to-EBITDA target if the creation of large minorities would decrease the cash flows available to service debt.Moody's could downgrade the ratings if Agrokor's Moody's-adjusted EBITA-to-interest expense ratio fell substantially below 1.0x. Moody's could also lower Agrokor's ratings if it failed to curb the deterioration of its EBITDA or if free cash flows become significantly negative. Any weakening of the company's liquidity profile could also trigger a downgrade." - See more at: Moody's downgrades Croatia's Agrokor corporate family rating to B3, outlook stable - SeeNews - Business intelligence for Southeast Europe
 
Mi pare di capire che fino a marzo 2018 non ci possono essere problemi perche' non ci sono rimborsi. Pero' in caso di non rifinanziamento di questa facility PIK sembra che alcuni debiti, non si sa quali perche' le condizioni non sono pubbliche, potrebbero essere richiamati, cioe' richiesto un rimborso immediato. Non e' in obbligo ma in diritto del lender. Tra l'altro il PIK non e'consolidato in bilancio, per questo non lo avevo identificato subito.

Chiaramente ci sono molte aspetti incerti e in po' nascosti e per questo il mercato e' andato nel panico. Rimango pero' relativamente positivo sul fatto che l'azienda non avra' problemi di cash flow. Non e' una azienda in seria difficolta' commerciale. Che interessa avrebbe una banca a creare in fallimento quando le probabilita'di recuperare i propri soldi come going concern sono alte?

Se hanno bisogno di cash hanno tempo di vendere in business fino al 2018 o possono sempre dare in pegno le azioni delle societa' quotate. Benche' tutte le soluzioni non sono indolori rimangono parecchie alterntive per generare cash.

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Fra41 ha scritto:
Agrokor: la caduta dei bond high yield continua - Obbligazioni - InvestireOggi.it
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articolo in po' da scoop che non aggiunge informazioni che non sapessi. Se sono una Parmalat che falliscano e i dirigenti vadano in galera. Sceme le banche che hanno prestato i soldi senza identificare la truffa!

Personalmente non penso ci sia alcuna truffa perche' il movente non esiste. Certo hanno del debito off balance sheet che non e' mai trasparente.

Dire che le banche vogliono rinegoziare il debito mi sembra una stupidaggine. Qual'e' il dirigente bancario che vuole fare una svalutazione dei propri loan? La scadenza e' ancora lontana e le banche vogliono arrivare forti al tavolo il prossimo anno. La societa' ha parecchi assets che puo' vendere e dare in garanzia.

Aspettiamo aprile per il conti 2016 e nel frattempo cedoliamo...

F
 
Fran7 ha scritto:
articolo in po' da scoop che non aggiunge informazioni che non sapessi. Se sono una Parmalat che falliscano e i dirigenti vadano in galera. Sceme le banche che hanno prestato i soldi senza identificare la truffa!

Personalmente non penso ci sia alcuna truffa perche' il movente non esiste. Certo hanno del debito off balance sheet che non e' mai trasparente.

Dire che le banche vogliono rinegoziare il debito mi sembra una stupidaggine. Qual'e' il dirigente bancario che vuole fare una svalutazione dei propri loan? La scadenza e' ancora lontana e le banche vogliono arrivare forti al tavolo il prossimo anno. La societa' ha parecchi assets che puo' vendere e dare in garanzia.

Aspettiamo aprile per il conti 2016 e nel frattempo cedoliamo...

F
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assolutamente d'accordo : comunque ribasso eccessivo ed ingiustificato .

Vedremo , intanto si cedola...
 
Naturalmente rimane in titolo ad alto rischio. A meno di improbabili truffe da parte delle proprieta' non ci sono motivi fondamentali per cui il titolio sia cosi' depresso. L'ex CFO e' diventato ministro delle finanze......anche questo in indizio e' a favore di Agrokor.

Per chi investe in titoli high yield ha assistito ad alcuni default negli ultimo paio di anni. Facile commentare a posteriori ma erano tutte situazioni davvero disastrate a livello fondamentale econ business non sostenibili. Infatti nonavevo comperato o ero riuscito a speculare sulla volatilita' e a uscirne in gain.

Mi posso sbagliare ma Agrokor mi sembra in una situazione diversa grazie alla sua tipologia di business, il fatto di essere quotata, per la sua proprieta' in mano principalmente alla famiglia fondatrice, etc...
 
Agrokor vende business a COCA-COLA per 800 mill di Eur (prezzo da confermare) ERRATA CORRIGE 800 non 80 milioni!
 
Ultima modifica:
ZAGREB (Croatia), February 17 (SeeNews) - Croatian privately-held concern Agrokor is considering selling its soft drinks and water bottling company Jamnica [ZSE:JMNC-R-A] to Coca Cola, local media reported on Friday.Agrokor is seeking 800 million euro ($851.6 million) for its controlling stake in Jamnica, but Coca Cola is not willing to pay over 500 million euro, news portal Tportal reported citing unnamed sources from within Agrokor.Talk of Jamnica's possible sale follows news of Agrokor's over indebtedness, which first became apparent in early January when Moody's cut the corporate family rating (CFR) of the retailer to B3."The downgrade reflects our view that Agrokor is not likely to restore credit ratios in line with our previous requirements for a B2 rating in light of the deterioration in operating performance that occurred during the first nine months of 2016," the ratings agency said at the time.Agrokor then announced it was pulling out of a syndicated loan deal it had struck with several international lenders. The news sent the price of its bonds on international markets into a downward spiral as investors lost confidence in the company's ability to pay back its debts.Media have been speculating that Agrokor will need to sell off a number of its affiliates in order to service its obligations.Agrokor, which owns a 76.15% stake in Jamnica, has not commented on its financial stability.The concern has operations in food and beverages, as well as in food retailing. - See more at: Croatia's Agrokor mulls sale of Jamnica to Coca Cola - report - SeeNews - Business intelligence for Southeast Europe
 
Ma tu sei investito?
Con quale banca l'hai comprata?
 
Caspita! È arrivato a 40! E dire che le banche russe ci stanno buttando denaro. Cosa prezza questo bond una ristrutturazione del debito o un fallimento?
 
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