E' il solito gioco delle tre carte...
L'Ecuador può pagare il debito estero, infatti tale debito ammonta solo al 38% del Pil, così dice il Financial Times.
Peccato che bisognerebbe tenere conto di quali siano le entrate effettive del Governo.
Infatti il servizio del debito dirotterebbe all'estero il 38% di tali entrate...
Ecuador in the spotlight as Government seeks to renegotiate debt on its terms
Source: Eurodad
Gail Hurley
Mon May 07 2007
Ecuador has been in the media spotlight over recent months. It has many rich country governments, multilateral institutions and the international capital markets in a state of anxiety about what steps the government will take to honour (or not) regular payments on its external debt burden. In April, at an international seminar on the illegitimacy of the country's external debt, organised by Jubilee 2000 Red Guayaquíl, Ricardo Patiño, Ecuador's Minister for the Economy and Finance announced ambitious new budget plans for the period 2006-2010.
Ecuador has been in the media spotlight over recent months. It has many rich country governments, multilateral institutions and the international capital markets in a state of anxiety about what steps the government will take to honour (or not) regular payments on its external debt burden. This follows the election of Rafael Correa to power in November 2006. Correa's leftist government was elected after promises not to sign a controversial free-trade agreement with the United States and a commitment to reduce the country's external debt burden of US$10.97bn.
Can Ecuador pay?
In some of the world's major mainstream newspapers such as the Financial Times (Ecuador threatens to become the first debtor with the ability to pay: 16 February 2007), journalists and commentators have suggested that Ecuador in fact "has the ability to repay" its external debt. They argue that the country's debt ratios are "low by emerging market standards" with an external debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 38%. Should the Correa Government choose to default it could "set a dangerous precedent". What these articles have in common - and neglect to mention - is that external debt service as a percentage of government revenues is extremely high in the country. This coupled with high and worsening social indicators and serious questions in relation to the legitimacy of many of creditor's claims throw serious doubt as to the robustness of these newspapers' conclusions.
In 2006, payments on Ecuador's external debt reached a massive 38% of government revenues (the UN recommends that developing nations spend not more than 10-13% of revenues of external debt repayments). Ecuador owes US$4.38bn to multilateral institutions such as the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank, US$2bn to bilateral lenders and US$4.15bn in government bonds. Spain is the largest bilateral creditor with a total of US$396.8mn in claims on the country (see table below). Ecuador, despite high (and worsening) poverty indicators has to-date been excluded from all bilateral and multilateral debt cancellation initiatives and has been eligible instead for (repeated) debt restructuring deals. Ecuador has visited the Paris Club a total of eight times between 1983 and 2003.
According to the Debt Management Department in the Ministry of Finance, only one visit was made to refinance the capital on the country's loans with Paris Club creditors. The rest rescheduled interest and interest-on-interest only. Various non-transparent decisions to bail-out the private sector by buying-back its debt via the issuing of government bonds (essentially transforming private debt into public sovereign debt) followed by the restructuring of these same bonds - several times over - at higher interest rates has also been mired in controversy, as is explained in a new report by Ecuador's Special Investigation Commission on External Debt (CEIDEX).
It is little wonder then that the government wants (and has committed) to end this absurd cycle of continuously high debt service payments coupled with repeated debt refinancing deals of various sorts.
Correa's commitments
In April 2007, at an international seminar on the illegitimacy of the country's external debt, organised by Jubilee 2000 Red Guayaquíl and supported by a range of local and international organisations, Ricardo Patiño, Ecuador's Minister for the Economy and Finance announced ambitious new budget plans for the period 2006-2010. These include bold measures to reduce the percentage of national revenues dedicated to external debt repayments. Between 2007 and 2010, the Correa Government intends to reduce external debt service from a high 38% of the central government budget to 11.8%. In parallel, amounts invested in the social sectors and the development of basic infrastructure will be dramatically increased. How the government intends to secure these ambitious reductions in external debt service has been the subject of intense political speculation by the international community. Some creditors fear the government will choose to default, leaving them in a quandary as to how to react. Others have pointed to the fact that to-date Ecuador is still honouring its external debt service obligations. Meanwhile Minister Patiño has moved to secure fresh debt swap agreements with Spain and Italy over the past couple of weeks. What is clear however is that the government has ruled no option in or out at this stage. Indeed at the seminar, the government announced that it would be fleshing-out its external debt policy over the next few months and has established an advisory group composed of academic and civil society experts to advise and recommend various options as they relate to bilateral, multilateral and commercial debt stocks. Eurodad has been invited to contribute to this group. Ricardo Patiño also announced that he would begin a formal audit process of the country's debts.
Norway given public recognition for cancelling illegitimate debt
As a further indication of the government's progressive stance on debt, on 26 April the Ministry of Economy and Finance hosted a public event to thank Norwegian Government for cancelling US$20mn owed by Ecuador. The debt was cancelled by Norway in October 2006 following significant public pressure by campaign groups who argued that debts incurred via the controversial ship export credit campaign in the 1970's and 1980's were illegitimate and should be cancelled immediately. On 6 October, Norway's Development Minister, Eric Solheim announced that he would cancel US$80mn owed by five countries and admitted that the campaign had been a failure. He said his country "shared responsibility" for the debts which resulted from the failed policy. At the press event, which gave the Norwegian Government public recognition of its bold step to acknowledge creditor co-responsibility, Ecuador's Finance Minister Ricardo Patiño said that Ecuador appreciated the steps taken by Norway to cancel this illegitimate debt. Patiño said that out of an original debt of US$35, US$100mn had already been paid and yet over US$20mn still remained on the books. This was not right, he said. He urged Minister Solheim to be bold and to encourage other creditors to take-on the issue of the illegitimacy of debt, in particular in Europe.
World Bank representative expelled from Ecuador
The event was followed by a press conference at which the Finance Minister formally announced that the World Bank's representative in Ecuador, Eduardo Somensatto, had been expelled. This followed the actions taken by the World Bank in 2005 when now-President Rafael Correa was Finance Minister. In 2005, after careful debate in Parliament, a law to reform the FEIREP Fund (Fondo de Estabilización, Inversión y Reducción del Endeudamiento Público) was agreed. Prior to the reform process, the special fund's rules stated that 70% of revenues generated via oil exports would go towards the repayment of external debt obligations. According to Minister for Energy and Mines, Alberto Acosta "this left practically nothing for investments in the social sectors". Changes to the rules stated that 20% of the Fund would now go towards social needs and 10% for national development in science and technology. In response to these reforms, the World Bank stated that it would be freezing a loan - which had already been agreed several months beforehand - for US$100mn. At the press conference, Ricardo Patiño quoted from the letter which his department had received at the time of the decision. In it, the Bank stated that it was "concerned at recent moves to reform the FEIREP Fund" in the country and in particular the potential implications on "macroeconomic stability". It stressed the need to maintain strict controls on fiscal expenditures. Patiño said that his interpretation of the "need to maintain macroeconomic stability" could really be translated as the "need to remain current on external debt service obligations" and "strict expenditure controls" really meant "limit the amounts given to social expenditures". This was not acceptable, he said particularly because the changes to the FEIREP Fund's rules had been agreed through a democratic legislative process. Said Patiño, "we gave the Bank's country representative 72 hours to explain the actions he took in 2005. We received no response. We therefore told him he was no longer welcome in this country".
The action comes at the same time as Ecuador pays-off the International Monetary Fund to the tune of US$9mn. Patiño stressed that Ecuador no longer wanted the multilaterals' conditions for the Ecuadorian people. Instead, Ecuador is participating in negotiations with Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia and Paraguay about the setting-up of an alternative "Banco del Sur". Over the past four months, four high level meetings have taken place between these countries which aim to reach a consensus on how a new alternative regional financial architecture might be formed. Various proposals are on the table e.g. for how a voting structure may be organised and political negotiations are tough, but there is definitely a sense of optimism in the air. Eurodad will keep listserve subscribers informed of developments as they progress.
The road ahead: the challenge for creditors
Ecuador is one more of several other Latin American countries which have veered to the left over the last couple of years. Given the abject failure of the policy prescriptions imposed on the continent by the multilateral institutions, the struggle to reassert national (and regional) sovereignty is understandable.
Whereas in 2006, Ecuador paid-out some 38% of government revenues in external debt service, only 22% were directed towards the whole range of social expenditures. The sense of dissatisfaction and desire for change can therefore be easily understood. It will be interesting to monitor how the government chooses to fulfil its stated policy aims of a sharp decline in debt service and dramatic increase in poverty related expenditures. The Ecuadorian government is setting its priorities straight: the people first and wealthy external creditors second. How the creditors will choose to react - whatever course is steered - will also be telling. How far will European Governments be prepared to "take the hit" and write-off what are relatively small amounts of outstanding loans to Ecuador? Or how far will they create a fuss and insist that Ecuador makes the payments? This will be a real test of creditors' claims that they do indeed support the Millennium Development Goals for all developing countries.
Nell’ultima settimana borsistica, i principali indici globali hanno messo a segno performance positive. In assenza di dati macro di rilievo, gli operatori si sono focalizzati sugli utili societari e sulle banche centrali. La stagione delle trimestrali è infatti entrata nel vivo in Europa e a Piazza Affari con oltre la metà dei 40 titoli che compongono il Ftse Mib ad alzare il velo sui conti. Per quanto riguarda le banche centrali, la Reserve Bank of Australia ha lasciato i tassi di interesse invariati, come previsto. Anche la Bank of England ha lasciato fermi i tassi, con due voti a favore di un taglio immediato sui nove totali. La Riksbank svedese ha invece tagliato i tassi per la prima volta in otto anni, riducendo il costo del denaro di 25 punti base al 3,75%, evidenziando la divergenza dell’Europa dalla linea dura della Fed. Per continuare a leggere visita il 
