NEW : - 25 % in preapertura
- Creatore Discussione pippero
- Data di inizio
-
INVESTIMENTO IN LENDING CROWDFUNDING SU WALLIANCE: 21 MESI E CEDOLE TRIMESTRALI
Su Walliance è aperto l’investimento in Lending “Padova, Residence Linea 4.0”. Durata 21 mesi; distribuzione del TAN in cedole trimestrali; restituzione del capitale alla scadenza del finanziamento.
Campagna di raccolta investimenti > 90%.
Ticket minimo € 500.
Per continuare a leggere visita questo LINK
stefanog23
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Un buon livello di entrata è sotto quota 15, direi intorno a quota 13 sarebbe l'ideale alemno un bel rimbalzo lo dovrebbe fare.
In ottica di lungo bisognerà aspettare che dichiarino i dividendi futuri, ma comunque questo settore è tornato indietro ai livelli del 2002 e secondo me comincia ad essere di nuovo appetibile.
New -75% dai massimi
NFI -77%
IMH -72%
HMB -67%
NTR -71%
HCM -70%
Mica falliranno tutte!
In ottica di lungo bisognerà aspettare che dichiarino i dividendi futuri, ma comunque questo settore è tornato indietro ai livelli del 2002 e secondo me comincia ad essere di nuovo appetibile.
New -75% dai massimi
NFI -77%
IMH -72%
HMB -67%
NTR -71%
HCM -70%
Mica falliranno tutte!
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Non per fare l'uccello del malaugurio, ma è bastato davvero poco...
Stocks lower after aggressive Fed talks
Earnings season wraps up, investors ponder health of 2007 profits
MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:04 PM ET Feb 9, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks turned lower Friday afternoon, as crude futures moved higher and as several Federal Reserve officials declined to rule out more rate hikes, overshadowing new upgrades of Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp.
The session was enlivened by heavy demand for debut shares of Fortress Investment Group. The IPO marked the first U.S. listing of a hedge fund.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average last was down 15 points at 12,621, with much of the blue-chip barometer's advance linked to GM's strong performance.
The S&P 500 down 4.48 points at 1,443.70 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 21 points to 2,467.67.
There were 839 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, with losers outnumbering winners by an almost 2-to-1 margin. About 1.28 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq market, with 9 stocks trading lower for every 5 on the rise.
Price action has been restrained this week, as earnings season wrapped up, and remained so on Friday, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
"I would say that we are at a juncture here where we have to get our arms wrapped around valuation," Hogan said. "We have had a great earnings season, but we have had some lackluster guidance. We will probably have some muted stock moves until we get a handle on what earnings are going to look like in 2007."
Earlier, William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, estimated that growth in U.S. gross domestic product this year will run at about a 3% clip. Poole also said he hopes core inflation will settle below 2%. Read more.
Poole's remarks left investors unsettled, sending Treasurys lower and likely placing limits on the stock market's potential gains, according to Charles Campbell, senior trader at Miller Tabak.
"His remarks may put a lid on how high we can go," Campbell said.
Cleveland Fed chief Sandra Pianalto said inflation statistics show improvement, but a firmer policy may be needed. She left open the possibility of further rate increases.
Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher said he was pleased with the current direction of inflation. He also declines to rule out more rate increases.
Stocks in motion
The rate hike worries hit a number of financial stocks, including Citigroup which was 1.7% lower at $53.50 and Bank of America, which dropped 0.9% to $52.87.
.....
Stocks lower after aggressive Fed talks
Earnings season wraps up, investors ponder health of 2007 profits
MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:04 PM ET Feb 9, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks turned lower Friday afternoon, as crude futures moved higher and as several Federal Reserve officials declined to rule out more rate hikes, overshadowing new upgrades of Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp.
The session was enlivened by heavy demand for debut shares of Fortress Investment Group. The IPO marked the first U.S. listing of a hedge fund.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average last was down 15 points at 12,621, with much of the blue-chip barometer's advance linked to GM's strong performance.
The S&P 500 down 4.48 points at 1,443.70 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 21 points to 2,467.67.
There were 839 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, with losers outnumbering winners by an almost 2-to-1 margin. About 1.28 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq market, with 9 stocks trading lower for every 5 on the rise.
Price action has been restrained this week, as earnings season wrapped up, and remained so on Friday, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
"I would say that we are at a juncture here where we have to get our arms wrapped around valuation," Hogan said. "We have had a great earnings season, but we have had some lackluster guidance. We will probably have some muted stock moves until we get a handle on what earnings are going to look like in 2007."
Earlier, William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, estimated that growth in U.S. gross domestic product this year will run at about a 3% clip. Poole also said he hopes core inflation will settle below 2%. Read more.
Poole's remarks left investors unsettled, sending Treasurys lower and likely placing limits on the stock market's potential gains, according to Charles Campbell, senior trader at Miller Tabak.
"His remarks may put a lid on how high we can go," Campbell said.
Cleveland Fed chief Sandra Pianalto said inflation statistics show improvement, but a firmer policy may be needed. She left open the possibility of further rate increases.
Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher said he was pleased with the current direction of inflation. He also declines to rule out more rate increases.
Stocks in motion
The rate hike worries hit a number of financial stocks, including Citigroup which was 1.7% lower at $53.50 and Bank of America, which dropped 0.9% to $52.87.
.....
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stefanog23 ha scritto:
Ieri Mr. Toll ha dichiarato che i mercati immobiliari che non stanno risentendo della fase attuale di "possibile ulteriore stabilizzazione" sono alcune aree di New York e del New Jersey... se vai a vedere dove operano le Reit settoriali che oggi non sono in rosso....
timurlang
Etsi omnes, Ego non
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pippero ha scritto:
riquoto stefanog23
in questo momento il settore è ancora in mano ai venditori e non è facile prevedere a che punto si avrà un nuovo floor
comprare nella speranza di un guadagno veloce è rischioso,
ma in ottica da investitore da qui in giù diventa appetibile, considerando anche che eventuali perdite in conto capitale potrebbero essere facilmente coperte dai dividendi
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pippero ha scritto:
Da un lato oggi avevano francamente ecceduto su NEW... dall'altro, starei molto accorto al news flow su questi titoli...
Secondo me è da comprare in vista di un consistente rimbalzo, per ora, piuttosto che "da cassetto"... nonostante i fondamentali e le considerazioni di buon senso circa il comportamento eccessivamente punitivo del mercato.... opinione personale, as usual...
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Interessante anche l'articolo sul Sole 24 ore di sabato sulla crisi del settore del finanziamento dei mutui "subprime" in USA...
Più in generale sull'immobiliare residenziale e sul fatto che possa o meno avere raggiunto la fase finale della discesa...
Housing still on down slope
Economists say no recovery until midyear; prices face record fall
PrintE-mailEnable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Steve Kerch, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:16 PM ET Feb 8, 2007
This update to a story originally published Feb. 7 adds housing-market statistics.
ORLANDO, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. housing market has not reached bottom and will likely not begin to recover until the middle of this year, three housing economists said this week.
The weakness will extend to existing-home and new-home sales and housing starts as well as to home prices, which are likely to show their first full-year decline nationally since records have been kept, the economists told home builders at their annual convention here.
"I don't think we've seen the bottom," said David Berson, chief economist for Fannie Mae. "We're going to see a much bigger drop in investor demand this year. But by the second half of the year the market will stabilize, if investors pull out quickly."
Berson said he expects the home-price index calculated by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight will show a nationwide decline in values for 2007, the first time that will have happened since the data began being collected in 1975. Unlike other measures, the OFHEO data measure the price changes on the same homes over time, meaning the index is less likely to be skewed by the types and locations of sales.
"It won't be a big decline, maybe 1%. And the declines will be far more centered in areas that have had the most investor activity," he said. "Real home-price gains, adjusted for inflation, will be negative this year, next year and possibly the year after that."
The biggest problem the housing market faces is "a seriously large inventory situation," said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, which is hosting the International Builders Show here this week. Seiders said the housing boom in 2004 and 2005 produced at least 400,000 more housing units than demand could support, and builders are having to push hard to move those homes off the market.
Seiders said, though, that he believes home sales did hit bottom in the fourth quarter and that housing will make a "gradual recovery" over the next two years. He said housing could actually begin to make a positive contribution to economic growth again starting in the second half of this year.
"One of the good things is that the U.S. economy has been able to handle the dramatic correction in housing," he said. "GDP growth, unemployment, the overall inflation situation and interest rates" have all been positive despite housing's woes, he said.
Seiders said he is forecasting housing starts to decline 14% in 2007 to 1.56 million units. Single-family starts will drop 15%, to 1.26 million. Those numbers would compare with a peak of 2.1 million units started in 2005 and represent a return to 2002 levels, he said.
Starts are projected to rebound to 1.7 million in 2008. Home prices will also recover in 2008, gaining 1.3% next year, according to the NAHB forecast.
"There is still a little room for sales and starts to weaken," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac. "We should hit the trough in the first half of the year. But we're a few years away from the robust levels of activity we saw in 2005."
Sales of existing homes are off about 13% from their peak in the summer of 2005, Nothaft said, but in some markets sales have tumbled 30% or more while in others sales remain robust.
Weak markets include California, Florida and New England; in much of the South, with the exception of Florida, sales have remained steady or improved, he said.
Builder discounts build
To cope with the inventory overhang, home builders have been offering incentives to buyers. In its most recent surveys of its membership, the NAHB found that 50% of builders said they cut prices in the fourth quarter and close to 80% said they had either discounted homes or offered some other type of incentive to buyers, including paying loan closing costs, helping with financing charges or buying down mortgage rates for a set number of years, Seiders said.
"They know they have got to get those inventories down," Seiders said.
The biggest publicly traded home-building companies have seen results from their discounting efforts, Seiders said the NAHB surveys show. Big builder sales stabilized in the fourth quarter, Seiders said, as order cancellations -- which are not reported in government figures tracking the new-home market -- appear to have eased.
The flip side, however, is that home-building companies have watched their profit margins erode. "Margins have been taking it on the chin," he said.
Più in generale sull'immobiliare residenziale e sul fatto che possa o meno avere raggiunto la fase finale della discesa...
Housing still on down slope
Economists say no recovery until midyear; prices face record fall
PrintE-mailEnable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Steve Kerch, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:16 PM ET Feb 8, 2007
This update to a story originally published Feb. 7 adds housing-market statistics.
ORLANDO, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. housing market has not reached bottom and will likely not begin to recover until the middle of this year, three housing economists said this week.
The weakness will extend to existing-home and new-home sales and housing starts as well as to home prices, which are likely to show their first full-year decline nationally since records have been kept, the economists told home builders at their annual convention here.
"I don't think we've seen the bottom," said David Berson, chief economist for Fannie Mae. "We're going to see a much bigger drop in investor demand this year. But by the second half of the year the market will stabilize, if investors pull out quickly."
Berson said he expects the home-price index calculated by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight will show a nationwide decline in values for 2007, the first time that will have happened since the data began being collected in 1975. Unlike other measures, the OFHEO data measure the price changes on the same homes over time, meaning the index is less likely to be skewed by the types and locations of sales.
"It won't be a big decline, maybe 1%. And the declines will be far more centered in areas that have had the most investor activity," he said. "Real home-price gains, adjusted for inflation, will be negative this year, next year and possibly the year after that."
The biggest problem the housing market faces is "a seriously large inventory situation," said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, which is hosting the International Builders Show here this week. Seiders said the housing boom in 2004 and 2005 produced at least 400,000 more housing units than demand could support, and builders are having to push hard to move those homes off the market.
Seiders said, though, that he believes home sales did hit bottom in the fourth quarter and that housing will make a "gradual recovery" over the next two years. He said housing could actually begin to make a positive contribution to economic growth again starting in the second half of this year.
"One of the good things is that the U.S. economy has been able to handle the dramatic correction in housing," he said. "GDP growth, unemployment, the overall inflation situation and interest rates" have all been positive despite housing's woes, he said.
Seiders said he is forecasting housing starts to decline 14% in 2007 to 1.56 million units. Single-family starts will drop 15%, to 1.26 million. Those numbers would compare with a peak of 2.1 million units started in 2005 and represent a return to 2002 levels, he said.
Starts are projected to rebound to 1.7 million in 2008. Home prices will also recover in 2008, gaining 1.3% next year, according to the NAHB forecast.
"There is still a little room for sales and starts to weaken," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac. "We should hit the trough in the first half of the year. But we're a few years away from the robust levels of activity we saw in 2005."
Sales of existing homes are off about 13% from their peak in the summer of 2005, Nothaft said, but in some markets sales have tumbled 30% or more while in others sales remain robust.
Weak markets include California, Florida and New England; in much of the South, with the exception of Florida, sales have remained steady or improved, he said.
Builder discounts build
To cope with the inventory overhang, home builders have been offering incentives to buyers. In its most recent surveys of its membership, the NAHB found that 50% of builders said they cut prices in the fourth quarter and close to 80% said they had either discounted homes or offered some other type of incentive to buyers, including paying loan closing costs, helping with financing charges or buying down mortgage rates for a set number of years, Seiders said.
"They know they have got to get those inventories down," Seiders said.
The biggest publicly traded home-building companies have seen results from their discounting efforts, Seiders said the NAHB surveys show. Big builder sales stabilized in the fourth quarter, Seiders said, as order cancellations -- which are not reported in government figures tracking the new-home market -- appear to have eased.
The flip side, however, is that home-building companies have watched their profit margins erode. "Margins have been taking it on the chin," he said.
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Leone70 ha scritto:
Almeno quella .... manco i sassi vanno giù come era andato giù NEW...
Il punto di sostanza resta sempre quello.... a sentire il Bernanke di oggi, pare che i tassi resteranno lì dove sono ... visto che alzarli non serve e abbassarli nemmeno ... ha mirato dritto alla carica onorifica di Ambasciatore del Parakulistan...
Mr Market da un lato ha fatto festa, dall'altro, come sempre, aspetta gli eventi...
Aggiungi anche che il trailing p/e qui conta poco nella situazione attuale ... il forward p/e , si evidenziava, è molto basso... metti tuttavia che vi siano 4 trimestri di loss nel 2007 per le difficoltà crescenti a ripagare i mutui da parte dei clienti "subprime"... quanto è disposto a pagare Mr Market per i loss di NEW ?
Ultima modifica:
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SeekingAlpha
New Century Financial: Risk/Reward More Favorable Following Big Selloff
Tuesday February 13, 7:11 am ET
Notable Calls submits: Stifel is upgrading New Century Financial (NYSE: NEW - News) to Hold from Sell after the co last week preannounced a slew of bad news including a major accounting issue (under-reserving for losses on early-payment defaults or EPDs), a reacceleration in EPDs (after guiding to stabilization last quarter), and sharply lower 2007 origination guidance (from flat to down 20% y/y as underwriting tightens further to stem the EPD issue).
Firm notes that this was even worse than they had anticipated (they had a Sell on NEW since Q3 2006). With persistently high EPDs forcing further underwriting changes, they are even more concerned about the 2007 outlook. Firm's new EPS estimates are -$1.18 in 4Q06 (from +$1.01) and +$0.38 in 2007 (from +$2.95).
However, since the release, NEW shares have traded off sharply (43%) and now trade at 65% of firm's estimate of tangible book value. While it is difficult to predict exactly where book value will be (given the accounting issues and expected 4Q06 operating loss), they believe the continued sell-off indicates rising investor concerns over liquidity risk. NEW ended 4Q06 with $360mm in cash and has 15 credit lines with over $17B in borrowing capacity that were only about 50% utilized at 3Q06-end.
While the obvious risk is that these lines could get pulled (as the restatement and losses breach covenants), firm's analysis of the agreements suggest that NEW should be OK even as EPDs rise further (4%). They also note that FICC, a smaller, more troubled subprime REIT recently was able to renegotiate its lines (and remain operational) despite breaching several key covenants.
Stifel believes the risk/reward at current levels no longer warrants a Sell rating.
Notablecalls: I think this upgrade will get some attention as Stifel had been negative on NEW ahead of the blow-up that happened last week.
NEW (and other subprime lenders) have been targeted by the remaining (and shrinking!) short community and I suspect Stifel's call will cause some of the remaining short positions to be covered. Also, the call makes sense.
Roba tosta...
New Century Financial: Risk/Reward More Favorable Following Big Selloff
Tuesday February 13, 7:11 am ET
Notable Calls submits: Stifel is upgrading New Century Financial (NYSE: NEW - News) to Hold from Sell after the co last week preannounced a slew of bad news including a major accounting issue (under-reserving for losses on early-payment defaults or EPDs), a reacceleration in EPDs (after guiding to stabilization last quarter), and sharply lower 2007 origination guidance (from flat to down 20% y/y as underwriting tightens further to stem the EPD issue).
Firm notes that this was even worse than they had anticipated (they had a Sell on NEW since Q3 2006). With persistently high EPDs forcing further underwriting changes, they are even more concerned about the 2007 outlook. Firm's new EPS estimates are -$1.18 in 4Q06 (from +$1.01) and +$0.38 in 2007 (from +$2.95).
However, since the release, NEW shares have traded off sharply (43%) and now trade at 65% of firm's estimate of tangible book value. While it is difficult to predict exactly where book value will be (given the accounting issues and expected 4Q06 operating loss), they believe the continued sell-off indicates rising investor concerns over liquidity risk. NEW ended 4Q06 with $360mm in cash and has 15 credit lines with over $17B in borrowing capacity that were only about 50% utilized at 3Q06-end.
While the obvious risk is that these lines could get pulled (as the restatement and losses breach covenants), firm's analysis of the agreements suggest that NEW should be OK even as EPDs rise further (4%). They also note that FICC, a smaller, more troubled subprime REIT recently was able to renegotiate its lines (and remain operational) despite breaching several key covenants.
Stifel believes the risk/reward at current levels no longer warrants a Sell rating.
Notablecalls: I think this upgrade will get some attention as Stifel had been negative on NEW ahead of the blow-up that happened last week.
NEW (and other subprime lenders) have been targeted by the remaining (and shrinking!) short community and I suspect Stifel's call will cause some of the remaining short positions to be covered. Also, the call makes sense.
Roba tosta...
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Continua ad andare peggio delle aspettative...
AP
Housing Construction Plunges in January
Friday February 16, 9:02 am ET
Commerce Department Reports Construction of New Homes, Apartments Fall 14.3 Percent in January
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Construction of new homes and apartments plunged by 14.3 percent in January, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
The bigger-than-expected drop left construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.408 million units, the lowest level in nearly 10 years.
On Thursday, a real estate trade group reported that the slump in housing deepened in the final three months of last year. The National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes fell in 40 states and home prices dropped in 49 percent of the metropolitan areas surveyed, the widest price decline in the history of the Realtors' survey.
Many economists are worried that the housing bust, which followed a five-year boom, could be a prolonged one as sellers struggle to reduce record levels of unsold homes.
AP
Housing Construction Plunges in January
Friday February 16, 9:02 am ET
Commerce Department Reports Construction of New Homes, Apartments Fall 14.3 Percent in January
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Construction of new homes and apartments plunged by 14.3 percent in January, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
The bigger-than-expected drop left construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.408 million units, the lowest level in nearly 10 years.
On Thursday, a real estate trade group reported that the slump in housing deepened in the final three months of last year. The National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes fell in 40 states and home prices dropped in 49 percent of the metropolitan areas surveyed, the widest price decline in the history of the Realtors' survey.
Many economists are worried that the housing bust, which followed a five-year boom, could be a prolonged one as sellers struggle to reduce record levels of unsold homes.
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Big banks control fate of subprime lenders
Merrill, J.P. Morgan pull back in credit crunch at low-end of mortgage market
Last Update: 12:00 PM ET Feb 16, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A credit crunch in the market for low-end mortgages has left companies specializing in these subprime loans at the mercy of big banks like Merrill Lynch & Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase.
Several private subprime lenders, such as Ownit Mortgage Solutions, Mortgage Lenders Network USA and ResMAE Mortgage Corp., have already filed for bankruptcy protection after having financial lifelines cut by Merrill and other big banks.
The fate of other publicly traded subprime specialists, such as New Century
and Novastar Financial, may also rest in the hands of big banks that have helped finance their recent rapid expansion, analysts said.
Others, such as Fieldstone Investment, are being acquired by stronger financial-services companies.
Subprime mortgages are offered to home buyers who fail to meet the strictest lending standards. While these loans remain a small part of the home lending industry, they've helped more people buy homes who previously couldn't afford it, helping to fuel a surge in housing prices in 2004 and 2005.
That's why the credit crunch in the subprime market is being so closely watched by investors, economists and policymakers. By cutting off access to credit for these extra buyers, demand for homes may fall further, depressing prices and fueling a broader slowdown in the U.S. housing market.
"This distress in the subprime area is a significant concern," Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday. While noting that the contraction has yet to reach a point where it will affect overall economic expansion, the Federal Reserve chairman said he's monitoring developments.
"There are some loans that have been made that are not turning out well, and to the detriment of both the lenders and the borrowers," he said. "We will certainly be watching that carefully and trying to provide guidance and oversight to minimize that risk going forward."
Lifelines
Most subprime specialists sell the loans they've originated to big banks, which then package them up and sell them on again as mortgage-backed securities to hedge funds and other institutional investors.
It usually takes at least several weeks for subprime specialists to sell their loans. During that time, big banks provide a "warehouse" in which to store them. In return for passing the loan onto these warehouse lenders, the originators get cash equal to the value of the asset, minus a fee, called a "haircut", which provides a cushion against late payments and delinquencies.
The warehouse banks, such as Merrill. J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America, are crucial to this process because they keep subprime lenders supplied with enough cash to help them make more loans immediately.
But as more subprime borrowers struggle to meet their monthly mortgage payments, cracks have begun to form in this system.
Warehouse lenders have started worrying about the quality of subprime loans that have been originated in recent years. Some are now asking subprime specialists for bigger haircuts, putting the originators in financial peril and forcing some into bankruptcy.
"Warehouse lenders are the lifelines for a lot of these subprime originators because they don't have the financial capacity to fund these loans by themselves," Ernie Napier, head of the specialty finance team at rating agency Standard & Poor's, said. "To the extent that these warehouse lenders go away, the whole process starts to unravel."
Pulling the plug
Mortgage Lenders Network USA, the 15th largest subprime company in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy protection this month.
As more borrowers defaulted early on the company's loans at the end of 2006, it tightened lending standards. It also introduced a new product, but mispriced it. After making at least $600 million in new loans with this product, Mortgage Lenders Network had to sell them at a loss in the secondary market.
Some of the company's warehouse lenders, which included Merrill and Goldman Sachs, cut back their financing, forcing Mortgage Lenders Network to post more collateral. When it couldn't come up with the extra cash, some of these lenders refused to advance any more money and the company had to shut down, according to its bankruptcy filing.
"The impression was that the warehouse lenders put them up against the wall and then pulled the plug," S&P's Napier said.
Ownit, one of the fastest growing subprime originators which was partly owned by Merrill, filed for bankruptcy on Dec. 28.
In November, J.P. Morgan Chase, which had provided warehouse financing since late 2003, said it planned to shut down the facility by the middle of December. Merrill then made a margin call, sweeping up about $15 million of the company's cash, leaving it with roughly $7.4 million in liquid funds, according to Ownit's filing.
Later that month, J.P. Morgan Chase decided not to fund loans Ownit had recently made and froze the rest of its money, Ownit said. By Dec. 5, Ownit said it had to lay off most of its employees.
Mystery margin caller
In recent weeks, warnings from banking giant HSBC Holdings and New Century have shaken subprime confidence further, sparking speculation that a major bank is aggressively making margin calls.
Accredited Home Lenders has had to come up with more cash after getting margin calls from some of its warehouse lenders, Stuart Marvin, executive vice president at the subprime specialist told analysts during a conference call on Wednesday.
"We have eight different warehouse lenders; I would say the majority of them are acting very rationally," Marvin said. "There is one that is acting somewhat irrationally, although I won't mention them by name. We have migrated the fundings away from that warehouse lender to one of the other seven until they begin to act more rationally again."
Industry publication National Mortgage News said this week that Merrill Lynch has been making margins calls. A Merrill spokesman declined to comment.
In late January, J.P. Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon noted rising defaults in some of its riskiest home loans and said the bank had largely exited the subprime business.
Repurchase redux
Big banks are clamping down on subprime specialists in other ways too.
When originators sell loans on to big banks, the buyers have the right to send them back in certain circumstances, including when borrowers fail to make payments during the first month or two. In those cases, the originator is forced to repurchase the loans.
Early payment defaults have jumped for subprime loans made in recent years, forcing higher-than-expected repurchases by originators like New Century, Fremont and Accredited.
Big repurchases can threaten the survival of subprime originators because they can struggle to come up with the extra cash needed to buy the loans back.
ResMAE Mortgage Corp., which had quickly become the 20th largest subprime specialist in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy this week and said it plans to sell most of its assets to Credit Suisse for $19 million.
By early 2005, loan originations began to wane, knocking ResMAE's profitability. By cutting costs and lifting the interest rates it charged on loans, the company said it was able to make a small profit last year "despite the industry collapsing around it."
But then Merrill Lynch, which had become the largest buyer of ResMAE's loans, asked the company to repurchase more than $300 million worth of loans. That "enormous" repurchase request, which ResMAE disputes, triggered a liquidity crisis and forced the company to put itself up for sale.
The repurchase demands "crippled ResMAE's operations by requiring the company to post enormous reserves, which dramatically reduced its capital and operating liquidity," the company said in its filing.
Big banks control fate of subprime lenders
New Century, new problems
New Century shares lost more than a third of their value last week after the mortgage services provider slashed its forecast for loan production this year because early-payment defaults and loan repurchases have led to tighter underwriting guidelines.
The company said it has to restate most of its results from 2006 because of mistakes in how it accounted for losses on repurchased loans.
New Century got into trouble because its systems didn't predict the level of repurchases accurately enough, said Zack Gast, a financial sector analyst at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis (CFRA), a research firm.
The company was particularly aggressive in how it accounted for the cost of buying back loans, Gast explained.
The conservative approach is to set aside money based on the assumption that if forced to repurchase problem loans, originators will likely have to resell again them at a lower price, Gast said.
Instead, New Century only provisioned for the cost of repurchasing the loans. Once those assets were back on its balance sheet, the company recorded 100% of their value, Gast noted.
"The pool of loans sitting on their balance sheet has been valued at the wrong price," he concluded.
New Century's problems have sparked concern that the company could be next on warehouse lenders' hit list.
"Investors and warehouse lenders could lose confidence in New Century," Merrill Lynch analyst Kenneth Bruce wrote in a note to clients on Feb. 8. "New Century's business model is highly reliant on liquidity, so if investor confidence deteriorates and credit facilities are constrained, a liquidity event could ensue."
"Finance companies that go out of business usually do so because of a lack of liquidity," Bruce reminded his clients ominously.
New Century has financing agreements with lots of large banks including Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Morgan, UBS AG and Goldman.
The contracts include covenants requiring New Century to maintain minimum levels of liquidity and debt levels. If those are breached, the lenders can terminate the agreements and demand their money back immediately.
New Century is currently required to keep liquidity levels to at least $134.4 million, according to its latest quarterly results filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company said last week that it had cash and liquidity in excess of $350 million at the end of 2006.
S&P cut its credit rating on New Century last week to BB- from BB and warned of further downgrades, partly because the company might breach its main warehouse loan covenants, triggering a liquidity crisis.
Who's next?
After the warnings from New Century and HSBC, warehouse lenders are probably now deciding which subprime originators to continue backing and which ones to drop, CFRA's Gast said.
"If all lenders increase their margin requirements that would probably result in bankruptcy," he said. "If you can't come up with the extra cash, then the warehouse lenders will step in and shut you down."
But which other subprime specialists are in peril?
Gast said that depends partly on companies' liquidity and how aggressive they've been in accounting for repurchased loans.
Accredited Home Lenders has taken the most conservative in its accounting, setting aside money to cover the cost of reselling loans at lower prices, Gast said. That approach knocked its shares last year, but now investors are rewarding the company, he noted.
"Their stock had been punished, but it turns out that they were the ones taking an appropriately conservative approach," Gast said.
Accredited shares are down less than 10% so far this year, while New Century stock has lost 40%. Last year though, Accredited shares tumbled 44% while New Century fell less than 20%.
Gast wouldn't comment specifically on other subprime lenders. But in a Dec. 19 report on the subprime shakeout, the analyst ranked originators based on accounting and liquidity risk.
New Century was the riskiest, followed by Novastar, Fieldstone, Fremont and Accredited.
"In the current liquidity environment, CFRA does not believe any lender is at low risk," he wrote. "All lenders are showing signs of credit quality deterioration."
A way out
Selling to a stronger financial-services company is one way out for subprime specialists.
Fieldstone agreed on Friday to be acquired by an affiliate of mortgage insurers MGIC Investment and Radian Group for $5.53 a share, or roughly $260 million.
The purchase price is almost double where Fieldstone's shares were trading yesterday and the stock surged 96% on Friday. However, the offer is roughly half where Fieldstone's shares were trading a year ago.
In August, Morgan Stanley bought Saxon Capital, a subprime mortgage servicer and lender, for $706 million. A month later Merrill acquired First Franklin for more than $1 billion.
But this type of exit may be more difficult for some subprime originators like New Century.
"The fluidity problems at New Century could undermine or prolong a sale," Merrill's Bruce said. "Only a limited number of buyers may seriously consider a take-out."
Meltdown underway
CFRA's Gast was reluctant to say whether things will get worse for the subprime industry, or estimate when the situation might improve. However, other experts are concerned about the immediate future.
While most of Accredited's warehouse lenders have remained rational, Marvin suggested these big banks could take a tougher approach to rival subprime specialists with less liquidity.
"The long-awaited meltdown in subprime mortgage lending is now underway, and it likely has further to go," Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients this week. "More subprime lenders may fold, and the supply of subprime credit likely will tighten further."
Merrill, J.P. Morgan pull back in credit crunch at low-end of mortgage market
Last Update: 12:00 PM ET Feb 16, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A credit crunch in the market for low-end mortgages has left companies specializing in these subprime loans at the mercy of big banks like Merrill Lynch & Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase.
Several private subprime lenders, such as Ownit Mortgage Solutions, Mortgage Lenders Network USA and ResMAE Mortgage Corp., have already filed for bankruptcy protection after having financial lifelines cut by Merrill and other big banks.
The fate of other publicly traded subprime specialists, such as New Century
and Novastar Financial, may also rest in the hands of big banks that have helped finance their recent rapid expansion, analysts said.
Others, such as Fieldstone Investment, are being acquired by stronger financial-services companies.
Subprime mortgages are offered to home buyers who fail to meet the strictest lending standards. While these loans remain a small part of the home lending industry, they've helped more people buy homes who previously couldn't afford it, helping to fuel a surge in housing prices in 2004 and 2005.
That's why the credit crunch in the subprime market is being so closely watched by investors, economists and policymakers. By cutting off access to credit for these extra buyers, demand for homes may fall further, depressing prices and fueling a broader slowdown in the U.S. housing market.
"This distress in the subprime area is a significant concern," Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday. While noting that the contraction has yet to reach a point where it will affect overall economic expansion, the Federal Reserve chairman said he's monitoring developments.
"There are some loans that have been made that are not turning out well, and to the detriment of both the lenders and the borrowers," he said. "We will certainly be watching that carefully and trying to provide guidance and oversight to minimize that risk going forward."
Lifelines
Most subprime specialists sell the loans they've originated to big banks, which then package them up and sell them on again as mortgage-backed securities to hedge funds and other institutional investors.
It usually takes at least several weeks for subprime specialists to sell their loans. During that time, big banks provide a "warehouse" in which to store them. In return for passing the loan onto these warehouse lenders, the originators get cash equal to the value of the asset, minus a fee, called a "haircut", which provides a cushion against late payments and delinquencies.
The warehouse banks, such as Merrill. J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America, are crucial to this process because they keep subprime lenders supplied with enough cash to help them make more loans immediately.
But as more subprime borrowers struggle to meet their monthly mortgage payments, cracks have begun to form in this system.
Warehouse lenders have started worrying about the quality of subprime loans that have been originated in recent years. Some are now asking subprime specialists for bigger haircuts, putting the originators in financial peril and forcing some into bankruptcy.
"Warehouse lenders are the lifelines for a lot of these subprime originators because they don't have the financial capacity to fund these loans by themselves," Ernie Napier, head of the specialty finance team at rating agency Standard & Poor's, said. "To the extent that these warehouse lenders go away, the whole process starts to unravel."
Pulling the plug
Mortgage Lenders Network USA, the 15th largest subprime company in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy protection this month.
As more borrowers defaulted early on the company's loans at the end of 2006, it tightened lending standards. It also introduced a new product, but mispriced it. After making at least $600 million in new loans with this product, Mortgage Lenders Network had to sell them at a loss in the secondary market.
Some of the company's warehouse lenders, which included Merrill and Goldman Sachs, cut back their financing, forcing Mortgage Lenders Network to post more collateral. When it couldn't come up with the extra cash, some of these lenders refused to advance any more money and the company had to shut down, according to its bankruptcy filing.
"The impression was that the warehouse lenders put them up against the wall and then pulled the plug," S&P's Napier said.
Ownit, one of the fastest growing subprime originators which was partly owned by Merrill, filed for bankruptcy on Dec. 28.
In November, J.P. Morgan Chase, which had provided warehouse financing since late 2003, said it planned to shut down the facility by the middle of December. Merrill then made a margin call, sweeping up about $15 million of the company's cash, leaving it with roughly $7.4 million in liquid funds, according to Ownit's filing.
Later that month, J.P. Morgan Chase decided not to fund loans Ownit had recently made and froze the rest of its money, Ownit said. By Dec. 5, Ownit said it had to lay off most of its employees.
Mystery margin caller
In recent weeks, warnings from banking giant HSBC Holdings and New Century have shaken subprime confidence further, sparking speculation that a major bank is aggressively making margin calls.
Accredited Home Lenders has had to come up with more cash after getting margin calls from some of its warehouse lenders, Stuart Marvin, executive vice president at the subprime specialist told analysts during a conference call on Wednesday.
"We have eight different warehouse lenders; I would say the majority of them are acting very rationally," Marvin said. "There is one that is acting somewhat irrationally, although I won't mention them by name. We have migrated the fundings away from that warehouse lender to one of the other seven until they begin to act more rationally again."
Industry publication National Mortgage News said this week that Merrill Lynch has been making margins calls. A Merrill spokesman declined to comment.
In late January, J.P. Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon noted rising defaults in some of its riskiest home loans and said the bank had largely exited the subprime business.
Repurchase redux
Big banks are clamping down on subprime specialists in other ways too.
When originators sell loans on to big banks, the buyers have the right to send them back in certain circumstances, including when borrowers fail to make payments during the first month or two. In those cases, the originator is forced to repurchase the loans.
Early payment defaults have jumped for subprime loans made in recent years, forcing higher-than-expected repurchases by originators like New Century, Fremont and Accredited.
Big repurchases can threaten the survival of subprime originators because they can struggle to come up with the extra cash needed to buy the loans back.
ResMAE Mortgage Corp., which had quickly become the 20th largest subprime specialist in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy this week and said it plans to sell most of its assets to Credit Suisse for $19 million.
By early 2005, loan originations began to wane, knocking ResMAE's profitability. By cutting costs and lifting the interest rates it charged on loans, the company said it was able to make a small profit last year "despite the industry collapsing around it."
But then Merrill Lynch, which had become the largest buyer of ResMAE's loans, asked the company to repurchase more than $300 million worth of loans. That "enormous" repurchase request, which ResMAE disputes, triggered a liquidity crisis and forced the company to put itself up for sale.
The repurchase demands "crippled ResMAE's operations by requiring the company to post enormous reserves, which dramatically reduced its capital and operating liquidity," the company said in its filing.
Big banks control fate of subprime lenders
New Century, new problems
New Century shares lost more than a third of their value last week after the mortgage services provider slashed its forecast for loan production this year because early-payment defaults and loan repurchases have led to tighter underwriting guidelines.
The company said it has to restate most of its results from 2006 because of mistakes in how it accounted for losses on repurchased loans.
New Century got into trouble because its systems didn't predict the level of repurchases accurately enough, said Zack Gast, a financial sector analyst at the Center for Financial Research and Analysis (CFRA), a research firm.
The company was particularly aggressive in how it accounted for the cost of buying back loans, Gast explained.
The conservative approach is to set aside money based on the assumption that if forced to repurchase problem loans, originators will likely have to resell again them at a lower price, Gast said.
Instead, New Century only provisioned for the cost of repurchasing the loans. Once those assets were back on its balance sheet, the company recorded 100% of their value, Gast noted.
"The pool of loans sitting on their balance sheet has been valued at the wrong price," he concluded.
New Century's problems have sparked concern that the company could be next on warehouse lenders' hit list.
"Investors and warehouse lenders could lose confidence in New Century," Merrill Lynch analyst Kenneth Bruce wrote in a note to clients on Feb. 8. "New Century's business model is highly reliant on liquidity, so if investor confidence deteriorates and credit facilities are constrained, a liquidity event could ensue."
"Finance companies that go out of business usually do so because of a lack of liquidity," Bruce reminded his clients ominously.
New Century has financing agreements with lots of large banks including Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Morgan, UBS AG and Goldman.
The contracts include covenants requiring New Century to maintain minimum levels of liquidity and debt levels. If those are breached, the lenders can terminate the agreements and demand their money back immediately.
New Century is currently required to keep liquidity levels to at least $134.4 million, according to its latest quarterly results filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company said last week that it had cash and liquidity in excess of $350 million at the end of 2006.
S&P cut its credit rating on New Century last week to BB- from BB and warned of further downgrades, partly because the company might breach its main warehouse loan covenants, triggering a liquidity crisis.
Who's next?
After the warnings from New Century and HSBC, warehouse lenders are probably now deciding which subprime originators to continue backing and which ones to drop, CFRA's Gast said.
"If all lenders increase their margin requirements that would probably result in bankruptcy," he said. "If you can't come up with the extra cash, then the warehouse lenders will step in and shut you down."
But which other subprime specialists are in peril?
Gast said that depends partly on companies' liquidity and how aggressive they've been in accounting for repurchased loans.
Accredited Home Lenders has taken the most conservative in its accounting, setting aside money to cover the cost of reselling loans at lower prices, Gast said. That approach knocked its shares last year, but now investors are rewarding the company, he noted.
"Their stock had been punished, but it turns out that they were the ones taking an appropriately conservative approach," Gast said.
Accredited shares are down less than 10% so far this year, while New Century stock has lost 40%. Last year though, Accredited shares tumbled 44% while New Century fell less than 20%.
Gast wouldn't comment specifically on other subprime lenders. But in a Dec. 19 report on the subprime shakeout, the analyst ranked originators based on accounting and liquidity risk.
New Century was the riskiest, followed by Novastar, Fieldstone, Fremont and Accredited.
"In the current liquidity environment, CFRA does not believe any lender is at low risk," he wrote. "All lenders are showing signs of credit quality deterioration."
A way out
Selling to a stronger financial-services company is one way out for subprime specialists.
Fieldstone agreed on Friday to be acquired by an affiliate of mortgage insurers MGIC Investment and Radian Group for $5.53 a share, or roughly $260 million.
The purchase price is almost double where Fieldstone's shares were trading yesterday and the stock surged 96% on Friday. However, the offer is roughly half where Fieldstone's shares were trading a year ago.
In August, Morgan Stanley bought Saxon Capital, a subprime mortgage servicer and lender, for $706 million. A month later Merrill acquired First Franklin for more than $1 billion.
But this type of exit may be more difficult for some subprime originators like New Century.
"The fluidity problems at New Century could undermine or prolong a sale," Merrill's Bruce said. "Only a limited number of buyers may seriously consider a take-out."
Meltdown underway
CFRA's Gast was reluctant to say whether things will get worse for the subprime industry, or estimate when the situation might improve. However, other experts are concerned about the immediate future.
While most of Accredited's warehouse lenders have remained rational, Marvin suggested these big banks could take a tougher approach to rival subprime specialists with less liquidity.
"The long-awaited meltdown in subprime mortgage lending is now underway, and it likely has further to go," Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients this week. "More subprime lenders may fold, and the supply of subprime credit likely will tighten further."
Pierlu1
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Salve ragazzi...
Intervengo sul 3d cosi', per gioco, certo non metterei mai i miei soldi in questo settore oggi.
La situazione e' ben peggiore di quanto la dipinga la stampa mainstream, eccicredo
Vi do' un po' di dati:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/25/real_estate/bc.usa.economy.housing.foreclosures.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007012508
Lee espropriazioni immobiliari negli USA hanno raggiunto livelli record: in media 1 famiglia su 92 ha avuto la casa espropriata, quest'anno.
Ma Colorado, California!!!!, Ohio, Texas!!!! raggiungono un tasso di una famiglia su 35 o 40.
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/living/16433927.htm
Si ritiene ci saranno altri 2/3 milioni di espropri, quest'anno.
http://sev.prnewswire.com/real-estate/20070212/LAM05112022007-1.html
Se volete leggere qualche blog non-mainstream:
http://www.myrealestatemoney.com/renews/Default.aspx
http://www.foreclosurepulse.com/
Da Novembre 2006 stanno fallendo in media una societa' di prestiti immobiliari a settimana, il 12 13 e 14 Febbraio ne e' fallita una al giorno.
http://ml-implode.com/
Ocio che qui pottrebbe scoppiare un casino che la meta' della meta' della meta' basta e avanza.
Secondo alcuni analisti il grosso del casino scoppiera' ad Aprile.
Comunque i soldi sono vostri
Intervengo sul 3d cosi', per gioco, certo non metterei mai i miei soldi in questo settore oggi.
La situazione e' ben peggiore di quanto la dipinga la stampa mainstream, eccicredo
Vi do' un po' di dati:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/25/real_estate/bc.usa.economy.housing.foreclosures.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007012508
Lee espropriazioni immobiliari negli USA hanno raggiunto livelli record: in media 1 famiglia su 92 ha avuto la casa espropriata, quest'anno.
Ma Colorado, California!!!!, Ohio, Texas!!!! raggiungono un tasso di una famiglia su 35 o 40.
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/living/16433927.htm
Si ritiene ci saranno altri 2/3 milioni di espropri, quest'anno.
http://sev.prnewswire.com/real-estate/20070212/LAM05112022007-1.html
Se volete leggere qualche blog non-mainstream:
http://www.myrealestatemoney.com/renews/Default.aspx
http://www.foreclosurepulse.com/
Da Novembre 2006 stanno fallendo in media una societa' di prestiti immobiliari a settimana, il 12 13 e 14 Febbraio ne e' fallita una al giorno.
http://ml-implode.com/
Ocio che qui pottrebbe scoppiare un casino che la meta' della meta' della meta' basta e avanza.
Secondo alcuni analisti il grosso del casino scoppiera' ad Aprile.
Comunque i soldi sono vostri
Non c'entrerà molto col tema ma non posso non ricordare le parole di "Thomas Jefferson : se il popolo americano permetterà mai alle banche private di gestire l'emissione della sua moneta , allora alternando inflazione e deflazione , le banche e le società finanziarie che cresceranno intorno spoglieranno il popolo di ogni propietà, sinchè i suoi figli si sveglieranno senza un tetto nel continente che i loro padri conquistarono ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,credo che le società finanziarie siano più pericolose che eserciti in armi ........il potere di emissione monetaria dovrebbe essere tolto alle banche e restituitoallo stato, a cui esso propiamente appartiene". La fortuna vuole che si stiano preparando nuove truppe di invasione e quindi attraverso la guerra queste persone potranno ricostruirsi una casa e una nuova vita.Pierlu1 ha scritto:Salve ragazzi...
Intervengo sul 3d cosi', per gioco, certo non metterei mai i miei soldi in questo settore oggi.
La situazione e' ben peggiore di quanto la dipinga la stampa mainstream, eccicredo
Vi do' un po' di dati:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/25/real_estate/bc.usa.economy.housing.foreclosures.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007012508
Lee espropriazioni immobiliari negli USA hanno raggiunto livelli record: in media 1 famiglia su 92 ha avuto la casa espropriata, quest'anno.
Ma Colorado, California!!!!, Ohio, Texas!!!! raggiungono un tasso di una famiglia su 35 o 40.
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/living/16433927.htm
Si ritiene ci saranno altri 2/3 milioni di espropri, quest'anno.
http://sev.prnewswire.com/real-estate/20070212/LAM05112022007-1.html
Se volete leggere qualche blog non-mainstream:
http://www.myrealestatemoney.com/renews/Default.aspx
http://www.foreclosurepulse.com/
Da Novembre 2006 stanno fallendo in media una societa' di prestiti immobiliari a settimana, il 12 13 e 14 Febbraio ne e' fallita una al giorno.
http://ml-implode.com/
Ocio che qui pottrebbe scoppiare un casino che la meta' della meta' della meta' basta e avanza.
Secondo alcuni analisti il grosso del casino scoppiera' ad Aprile.
Comunque i soldi sono vostri