Rassegna stampa serale: ci sarà qualche buona notizia?
Iniziamo con il botto: DB ha uscito una delle più terrificanti analisi in circolazione. Ripeto, quello che leggerete l'ha scritto Saravelos e non il Capitano
More broadly, we worry that the currency and Japanese financial markets are in the process of losing any sort of fundamental-based valuation anchor. The more global inflation picks up, the more the BoJ prints. But the more easing accelerates, the higher the need to press hard on the brake when the (inflation) cliff approaches and
the more dangerous it becomes. We are worried we may enter a phase where dramatic and unpredictable non-linearities in Japanese financial markets would kick in. If it becomes obvious to the market that the clearing level of JGB yields is above the BoJ's 25 basis point target, what is the incentive to hold bonds any more? Is the BoJ willing to absorb the entirety of the Japanese government bond stock? Where is the fair value of the yen on this scenario and what happens if the BoJ changes its mind? The BoJ may want to generate inflation, but it needs to be careful how it gets there.
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Da oggi è iniziato il periodo di blackout dei buyback merigani che terminerà il 22/06. Le aziende US sono state i principali compratori di azioni YTD.
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Previsione per domani. La cosa più importante è che se alzano di 75bp possiamo dire addio al soft landing e sarà recessione probabile negli USA nel giro di qualche mese / 1 anno con taglio tassi già in 1H23. Ciò non significa un -30% di SP perchè ci potrebbero essere interventi a sostegno mirati per i mercati finanziari con soldi che non arriveranno all'economia reale così da non aumentare l'inflazione. Un po' come è successo per tutto il periodo tra la GFC e il Covid.
The FOMC had been expected to hike rates by 50bps to 1.25-1.50% until the hot May CPI figures and rising consumer inflation expectations ignited a wave of 75bps calls to 1.50-1.75%. The Fed guidance initially called for 50bps (both in June and July) had the data evolved as they expected, but after the hot May data, some calls for larger hikes, a 'Volcker moment', fuelled speculative market activity leading into the meeting, and given a slew of publications with high-placed sources (WSJ, CNBC, Bloomberg) have come out suggesting a 75bps hike is indeed possible on the eve of the confab, it is now seen as a base case for many and a near-certainty as per market pricing. Given the evolution of the data, the Fed will be expected to make hawkish adjustments to its guidance via the statement, and in Powell's presser, some suggest another 75bps hike in July even. Furthermore, the accompanying 'Dot Plot' is expected to see ramped implied Fed hikes through 2023 - whispers suggest the median '23 dot could be towards the 4% region vs March's 2.8% forecast - Newsquawk
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CDS Turchi a livelli di allerta:
The cost to insure against a debt default by Turkey’s government in the next five years surged, heading for the highest closing level in almost two decades. Credit default swaps rose as high as 870 basis points on Monday, reflecting investor concerns over a deepening rout in the lira and the government’s reliance on unorthodox monetary policies to support it. The advance took the CDS contracts above the level reached during the 2008 global financial crisis and all the way back to 2003, the year Recep Tayyip Erdogan became Turkey’s prime minister. Under rising CDS pressure, the yield on the country’s 10-year dollar bonds rose to an all-time high of 10.6% on Monday.
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Analisti dicono 75bp:
Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Nomura Holdings Inc. Monday joined their peers at Barclays and Jefferies to call for the central bank to announce a 75-basis-point hike on Wednesday, which would be the biggest increase since 1994.
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Abbiamo iniziato con il possibile crollo del Giappone, ma chissà chi salterà prima...
Why M&G's Eric Lonergan Believes We’re at the Start of Euro Crisis Part II - Bloomberg
