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The Cash VIX Term Structure, And How These Volatility Metrics Can Be Used To Time The Market
The VIX index isn't the only forward implied volatility index. There are other indexes of different time frames ranging from 9 days to 1 year. They are called VIX9D, VIX3M, VIX6M, VIX1Y. Because of the forward implied aspect of volatility metrics, they are valuable in the quest of all traders to time the market.
So often people want to focus on the VIX futures, and more specifically the level of contango or backwardation of the front two-month VIX futures (M1 & M2). However, there is a wealth of useful information packed into what is called the cash VIX term structure that I feel traders are missing out on.
As you may know, you can't directly own the VIX index. It's just a statistic, calculated based off a strip of S&P 500 options. This is why it's often referred to as the "cash" VIX. The VIX9D, VIX3M, VIX6M, and VIX1Y are just like the VIX, calculated in a very similar fashion except over different time periods from 9 days to 1 year. They are also just statistical values based off of S&P 500 options and aren't indexes that traders can buy. Just like the VIX, they are also "cash" indexes.
The typical state of affairs in the volatility market is that each cash index of longer duration trades higher than the previous one with shorter duration. Because of the way the risk premium works, traders need to be compensated for taking on more risk further out in time, so the longer-term indexes should be higher than shorter-term indexes. Which is to say, the order of low to high prices in a "normal" market would be as follows:
VIX9D < VIX < VIX3M < VIX6M < VIX1Y
• The VIX9D index can go over the VIX index quite easily, anytime there is a minor volatility bump.
• The VIX is a little less likely to go over the VIX3M, so pay attention when it happens.
• The VIX is even less likely to go over the VIX6M, so pay MORE attention when this happens.
• And if the VIX goes over the VIX1Y, it may mean the volatility spike is significant and may have some staying power.
Remember February 5th, 2018? So the question is, using the cash VIX term structure ratios and crossovers (VIX9D:VIX:VIX3M:VIX6M:VIX1Y) could a trader have perhaps seen the February 5th event materializing before any major damage was done?
The VIX9D went over the VIX on January 29th, and by February 2nd it was already above the VIX1Y. If that's not a warning signal I don't know what is. By Feb 2nd, the VIX was also well above the VIX3M, again flashing danger. The cash VIX term structure was signalling warning signs the week before, and certainly a few days before.