Ti posso dire quello che faccio io , non ho la sfera di cristallo di hitman, io aspetto e mi faccio pagare interessi e capitale
Vol. 139 Venezuela e PDVsa : Esperanza d'Escobar
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Ti posso dire quello che faccio io , non ho la sfera di cristallo di hitman, io aspetto e mi faccio pagare interessi e capitale
Musetta2017
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bravo robocop, nessuno di noi sa niente...forse il gianfra. M
rubner
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Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Venezuelan bonds are posting their biggest gains in a year as President Nicolas Maduro’s opponents gain momentum in their efforts to oust him amid nationwide protests. World leaders are now saying they’ll recognize Juan Guaido, the head of the National Assembly, as the interim president.
The thinking is that a new administration will be in a better position to bolster oil production and restart economic growth after years of economic crisis under Maduro’s socialist regime. A new leader could also open up the way for a bond restructuring agreement after the government and state-owned oil company fell behind on $9 billion of payments, sending prices for most securities tumbling below 30 cents on the dollar. Sanctions have prevented investors from pursuing any sort of accord with Maduro’s administration.
Here’s what analysts and investors had to say about the outlook:
Siobhan Morden, head of LatAm fixed-income strategy at Nomura in New York:
“U.S. recognition will come with responsibilities. It’ll be a game of chicken to see if incremental pressure works for an internal rupture. If not, then look for full blown economic sanctions”
PDVSA bonds could jump to 30 cents on the event of a regime change
Sean Newman, a portfolio manager at Invesco Advisers in Atlanta:
“The U.S. recognition is a game changer. It may prompt Maduro to do something radical like try to remove him, which will leave the international community no choice but tighten grip around country, leaving the military to abandon him”
Invesco owns Venezuelan bonds, but is not adding more at this moment given the spike in prices Wednesday
Francisco Rodriguez, chief economist at Torino Capital:
The bond rally will probably fade if the military reiterates its support for Maduro
Market has been betting on regime change, yet it depends on military
Unclear how long Maduro would survive if Venezuela loses capacity to sell oil to U.S.
Consequences could be similar to U.S. decision to freeze Libyan assets in 2011 and Muammar Gaddafi losing power several months later
Ahmed Riesgo, chief investment strategist at Insigneo Securities in Miami:
“The quicker Maduro’s out, the better it will be for bondholders. I think what you’ll have is you’ll have a new government come that will want to enter into a restructuring”
“The market is anticipating that a little bit, especially with the move in the prices over the last few days”
“The new government is probably going to have a bit of a honeymoon period with bondholders, where they may be a little more amenable to terms”
Says credible range for recovery value is between 30-40 cents
Shamaila Khan, director of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein in New York:
Has a long-held view that regime change would happen
“We think regime change is likely in the near term”
It’s possible that debt may overshoot amid the positive news, but not there yet
Patrick Esteruelas, a senior analyst at Emso Asset Management in New York:
It’s potentially “the beginning of the end” for Maduro’s regime amid increasing foreign and domestic pressure
Emso is long Venezuelan bonds
Favors lowest priced PDVSA bonds
Michael Roche, a strategist at Seaport Global Holdings in New York:
“Any and all ‘positive for regime change’ information coming to light will add pressure on participants to accumulate an exposure to the Venezuelan sovereign given the likelihood that prices could close in on recovery values -- in the $40 area -- quickly”
Investors should buy “on a tactical basis -- it’s best to buy any weakness so as not to push prices up too quickly”
“The market will now look to see the reaction of the Maduro government to the protest and diplomatic moves”
Ray Zucaro, chief investment officer at RVX Asset Management in Miami:
Recent actions by the U.S. and other governments to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Guaido as the interim president are a "game changer" for the nation’s bonds
“All the avenues are closing” for Maduro
Sees value in PDVSA 22s, PDVSA 23s and PDVSA 24s
James Gulbrandsen, a Rio de Janeiro-based asset manager at NcH Capital:
“This time feels very different from previous moments when Maduro seemed at risk”
“Bolsonaro’s election in Brazil may be the difference maker as Maduro can be squeezed not only from the north but also now from the largest power in Latin America”
Venezuelan bonds are posting their biggest gains in a year as President Nicolas Maduro’s opponents gain momentum in their efforts to oust him amid nationwide protests. World leaders are now saying they’ll recognize Juan Guaido, the head of the National Assembly, as the interim president.
The thinking is that a new administration will be in a better position to bolster oil production and restart economic growth after years of economic crisis under Maduro’s socialist regime. A new leader could also open up the way for a bond restructuring agreement after the government and state-owned oil company fell behind on $9 billion of payments, sending prices for most securities tumbling below 30 cents on the dollar. Sanctions have prevented investors from pursuing any sort of accord with Maduro’s administration.
Here’s what analysts and investors had to say about the outlook:
Siobhan Morden, head of LatAm fixed-income strategy at Nomura in New York:
“U.S. recognition will come with responsibilities. It’ll be a game of chicken to see if incremental pressure works for an internal rupture. If not, then look for full blown economic sanctions”
PDVSA bonds could jump to 30 cents on the event of a regime change
Sean Newman, a portfolio manager at Invesco Advisers in Atlanta:
“The U.S. recognition is a game changer. It may prompt Maduro to do something radical like try to remove him, which will leave the international community no choice but tighten grip around country, leaving the military to abandon him”
Invesco owns Venezuelan bonds, but is not adding more at this moment given the spike in prices Wednesday
Francisco Rodriguez, chief economist at Torino Capital:
The bond rally will probably fade if the military reiterates its support for Maduro
Market has been betting on regime change, yet it depends on military
Unclear how long Maduro would survive if Venezuela loses capacity to sell oil to U.S.
Consequences could be similar to U.S. decision to freeze Libyan assets in 2011 and Muammar Gaddafi losing power several months later
Ahmed Riesgo, chief investment strategist at Insigneo Securities in Miami:
“The quicker Maduro’s out, the better it will be for bondholders. I think what you’ll have is you’ll have a new government come that will want to enter into a restructuring”
“The market is anticipating that a little bit, especially with the move in the prices over the last few days”
“The new government is probably going to have a bit of a honeymoon period with bondholders, where they may be a little more amenable to terms”
Says credible range for recovery value is between 30-40 cents
Shamaila Khan, director of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein in New York:
Has a long-held view that regime change would happen
“We think regime change is likely in the near term”
It’s possible that debt may overshoot amid the positive news, but not there yet
Patrick Esteruelas, a senior analyst at Emso Asset Management in New York:
It’s potentially “the beginning of the end” for Maduro’s regime amid increasing foreign and domestic pressure
Emso is long Venezuelan bonds
Favors lowest priced PDVSA bonds
Michael Roche, a strategist at Seaport Global Holdings in New York:
“Any and all ‘positive for regime change’ information coming to light will add pressure on participants to accumulate an exposure to the Venezuelan sovereign given the likelihood that prices could close in on recovery values -- in the $40 area -- quickly”
Investors should buy “on a tactical basis -- it’s best to buy any weakness so as not to push prices up too quickly”
“The market will now look to see the reaction of the Maduro government to the protest and diplomatic moves”
Ray Zucaro, chief investment officer at RVX Asset Management in Miami:
Recent actions by the U.S. and other governments to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Guaido as the interim president are a "game changer" for the nation’s bonds
“All the avenues are closing” for Maduro
Sees value in PDVSA 22s, PDVSA 23s and PDVSA 24s
James Gulbrandsen, a Rio de Janeiro-based asset manager at NcH Capital:
“This time feels very different from previous moments when Maduro seemed at risk”
“Bolsonaro’s election in Brazil may be the difference maker as Maduro can be squeezed not only from the north but also now from the largest power in Latin America”
NewOn
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Guaidò è legittimato dalla costituzione e a livello internazionale e se riconosciuto anche nei trinuali US può operare in ambito di politica estera per il Venezuela.
Ci sarà nuova legge sugli idrocarburi che saranno gestiti da AN quindi Maduro non vende niente a nessuno o quel nessuno potrà vedersi rendere nullo il contratto.
Nuove nomine a Citgo, voglio vedere i Russi se Citgo perde di valore come prendono a calci Maduro.
Russia tante belle pacche sulla spalla a Maduro ma nunca pure loro e Messico e Bolivia hanno detto a Maduro di trovare via democratica (poi se da li perdi cavoli tuoi)
rubner
Cunaguara
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sono per metà fascisti e per metà coglio-i,,,,, questo è quello che passa in tv prima serata in Italia,,, nessun giornalista però ha chiesto a Gino strada chi o cosa sono quel 63% di suoi connazionali che li hanno votati!!!!! possibile che nel mondo come in Italia la verità è la giustizia L abbia in mano solo la sinistra??????
Puoi spiegare per chi non guarda la TV?
LordClam
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Secondo me, esiste una concreta possibilita' che Maduro vada a casa nelle prossime 2-3 settimane
Devono solo pagare (in $$) i generali
Il resto come dici tu e' irrilevante
Ieri Pompeo ha messo sul tavolo 20 mil USD per "aiuti umanitari"
La pressione mediatica e politica aiuta ad aprire i canali dollarosi tra gli USA e i generali bolivariani
Opinions are welcome
rubner
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non hai letto l'articolo di Bloomberg? Guaido non sta agendo legittimamente.
Se Citgo perde di valore sarà colpa delle sanzioni, che c'ntra Maduro?
ventodivino
CHIAGNI & FOTTI
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Se tolgono i dollari a Maduro, per quanto tempo i Generaloni sosterranno l'attuale inquilino di Miraflores ?
Sembra una domanda retorica, ma non lo è.
NewOn
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Leggi sentenza del TSJ legittimo pf ANC e TSJ Di Maduro sono nulli quello che ha fatto è un abuso di potere con vizi di forma quindi non è valido!
sai giocare poker?
wake up and have a nice day
NewOn
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Vorrei capire con quale tribunale e quale sentenza hanno verificato prima di dare queste indicazioni. Come l'export del petrolio da venezuela verso US che era crollato comunicando informazioni prima che fossero usciti tutti i dati dell'export. Attenzione che legalmente il TSJ legittimo è l'unica struttura legale riconosciuta a livello internazionale perché eletta democraticamente dal popolo.
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..e se al punto 2 dello straccetto che hai pubblicato ..il popolo e le forze armate non lo fanno...
..autodefinito "legittimo" TSJ....che fa???..Mette le mani a pugnetta..e... ;
StockExchange
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la rosa dei venti
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MI chiedo come fanno certi nich a postare delle lenzuolate più lunghe di quelle di Bersani .
Mi sono impegnata un mondo per scrivere delle considerazioni serie ed articolate ma senza riuscire a postarle .
Per rubner a cui avevo dedicato la mia analisi invio un solo messaggio : zompa chi pò disse 'o ranavuottolo !
Mi sono impegnata un mondo per scrivere delle considerazioni serie ed articolate ma senza riuscire a postarle .
Per rubner a cui avevo dedicato la mia analisi invio un solo messaggio : zompa chi pò disse 'o ranavuottolo !
NewOn
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OT In realtà io mi domando come mai ci sono imprenditori ed impiegati.
sheikyerbouty
Stato Magnaccia
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Si potrebbe offrire a Maduro un dignitoso carnet de la patria e mandarlo in esilio a Cuba;
potrà ballare la salsa a piacimento.
potrà ballare la salsa a piacimento.
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Hai provato a Rotterdam?
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