) che affianca MOEX tra gli stock exchange che ho in ptf (mi sono lasciato scappare Deutsche Börse, Euronext e TMX durante il recente crollo) e altro ma OT.
Domani inizio una posizione con Danone, più con l'intento di parcheggiare la liquidità che altro (ho venduto Remy); è un po' una General Mills francese migliorata (yogurt, le pessime acquisizioni recenti, entrambe hanno puntato su prodotti che non tirano molto: i cereali per GIS, il latte vegetale per Danone) attualmente a 17x fwd P/E, div yield 3.5% (10 anni di aumenti costanti del ca. 5%), FCF yield 6.3%, EV/EBITDA 11.2x; avere un ottimo bilancio le consente di finanziarsi a 0.4% (giu 2029) e 0.57% (mar 2027): a Kraft dal bilancio pessimo chiedono dieci volte tanto. Alla fine ho preferito Danone alle superiori ma più care Nestle, Unilever, Hormel, McCormick ecc. che più o meno sono tutte ai massimi.
incollo una valutazione di morningstar
Fair Value and Profit Drivers | by Ioannis Pontikis Updated Apr 21, 2020
After revisiting our estimates and updating our model to account for Danone’s fiscal 2020 first-quarter results, currency movements, and COVID-19 impact, we have reduced our fair value estimate to EUR 68 per share from EUR 71. This reflects COVID-19-induced disruption in the waters segment (food-service channel) among others, which will more than offset pantry loading benefits from the rest of the business. Our valuation implies 2020 multiples of 19 times earnings and about 12 times enterprise value/EBITDA. These multiples are roughly in line with Danone's trading range over the past decade and slightly below our valuation of most large-cap competitors due to Danone’s more leveraged balance sheet, as well as our expectation that its growth will be slower and less diversified than its larger competitors'.
Our average five-year organic growth assumption is about 3% lower than management's midterm aspirations of mid-single-digit growth. Specialised nutrition is likely to remain the strongest growth engine, with about 4% average organic growth driven by price/mix (3% value contribution) but we see elevated headwinds in China, one of its most lucrative markets as local competition intensifies and market saturation kicks in. Waters should see its organic growth rate at around 2% over the next five years, driven by sales declines in fiscal 2020 due to the segment's exposure in food-service and impulse channels, which are severely affected by COVID-19-induced lockdowns. We expect the essential dairy and plant-based segment to undershoot group-level growth, with 2.5% average organic growth, over the next five years.
From a profitability standpoint, we expect Danone to underachieve group operating margin targets (higher than 15% by fiscal 2020), reaching an underlying operating margin of less than 15% in fiscal 2020, partly due to negative mix and higher costs in the supply chain related to COVID-19.
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Altri acquisti recenti solo CBOE (il VIX, The Last Dance...
Domani inizio una posizione con Danone, più con l'intento di parcheggiare la liquidità che altro (ho venduto Remy); è un po' una General Mills francese migliorata (yogurt, le pessime acquisizioni recenti, entrambe hanno puntato su prodotti che non tirano molto: i cereali per GIS, il latte vegetale per Danone) attualmente a 17x fwd P/E, div yield 3.5% (10 anni di aumenti costanti del ca. 5%), FCF yield 6.3%, EV/EBITDA 11.2x; avere un ottimo bilancio le consente di finanziarsi a 0.4% (giu 2029) e 0.57% (mar 2027): a Kraft dal bilancio pessimo chiedono dieci volte tanto. Alla fine ho preferito Danone alle superiori ma più care Nestle, Unilever, Hormel, McCormick ecc. che più o meno sono tutte ai massimi.
incollo una valutazione di morningstar
Fair Value and Profit Drivers | by Ioannis Pontikis Updated Apr 21, 2020
After revisiting our estimates and updating our model to account for Danone’s fiscal 2020 first-quarter results, currency movements, and COVID-19 impact, we have reduced our fair value estimate to EUR 68 per share from EUR 71. This reflects COVID-19-induced disruption in the waters segment (food-service channel) among others, which will more than offset pantry loading benefits from the rest of the business. Our valuation implies 2020 multiples of 19 times earnings and about 12 times enterprise value/EBITDA. These multiples are roughly in line with Danone's trading range over the past decade and slightly below our valuation of most large-cap competitors due to Danone’s more leveraged balance sheet, as well as our expectation that its growth will be slower and less diversified than its larger competitors'.
Our average five-year organic growth assumption is about 3% lower than management's midterm aspirations of mid-single-digit growth. Specialised nutrition is likely to remain the strongest growth engine, with about 4% average organic growth driven by price/mix (3% value contribution) but we see elevated headwinds in China, one of its most lucrative markets as local competition intensifies and market saturation kicks in. Waters should see its organic growth rate at around 2% over the next five years, driven by sales declines in fiscal 2020 due to the segment's exposure in food-service and impulse channels, which are severely affected by COVID-19-induced lockdowns. We expect the essential dairy and plant-based segment to undershoot group-level growth, with 2.5% average organic growth, over the next five years.
From a profitability standpoint, we expect Danone to underachieve group operating margin targets (higher than 15% by fiscal 2020), reaching an underlying operating margin of less than 15% in fiscal 2020, partly due to negative mix and higher costs in the supply chain related to COVID-19.
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Altri acquisti recenti solo CBOE (il VIX, The Last Dance...
il moex è quotato solo sul ... moex
da quel che so l'unico che vi offre accesso è Interactive Brokers
Domani inizio una posizione con Danone, più con l'intento di parcheggiare la liquidità che altro (ho venduto Remy); è un po' una General Mills francese migliorata (yogurt, le pessime acquisizioni recenti, entrambe hanno puntato su prodotti che non tirano molto: i cereali per GIS, il latte vegetale per Danone) attualmente a 17x fwd P/E, div yield 3.5% (10 anni di aumenti costanti del ca. 5%), FCF yield 6.3%, EV/EBITDA 11.2x; avere un ottimo bilancio le consente di finanziarsi a 0.4% (giu 2029) e 0.57% (mar 2027): a Kraft dal bilancio pessimo chiedono dieci volte tanto. Alla fine ho preferito Danone alle superiori ma più care Nestle, Unilever, Hormel, McCormick ecc. che più o meno sono tutte ai massimi.
incollo una valutazione di morningstar
Fair Value and Profit Drivers | by Ioannis Pontikis Updated Apr 21, 2020
After revisiting our estimates and updating our model to account for Danone’s fiscal 2020 first-quarter results, currency movements, and COVID-19 impact, we have reduced our fair value estimate to EUR 68 per share from EUR 71. This reflects COVID-19-induced disruption in the waters segment (food-service channel) among others, which will more than offset pantry loading benefits from the rest of the business. Our valuation implies 2020 multiples of 19 times earnings and about 12 times enterprise value/EBITDA. These multiples are roughly in line with Danone's trading range over the past decade and slightly below our valuation of most large-cap competitors due to Danone’s more leveraged balance sheet, as well as our expectation that its growth will be slower and less diversified than its larger competitors'.
Our average five-year organic growth assumption is about 3% lower than management's midterm aspirations of mid-single-digit growth. Specialised nutrition is likely to remain the strongest growth engine, with about 4% average organic growth driven by price/mix (3% value contribution) but we see elevated headwinds in China, one of its most lucrative markets as local competition intensifies and market saturation kicks in. Waters should see its organic growth rate at around 2% over the next five years, driven by sales declines in fiscal 2020 due to the segment's exposure in food-service and impulse channels, which are severely affected by COVID-19-induced lockdowns. We expect the essential dairy and plant-based segment to undershoot group-level growth, with 2.5% average organic growth, over the next five years.
From a profitability standpoint, we expect Danone to underachieve group operating margin targets (higher than 15% by fiscal 2020), reaching an underlying operating margin of less than 15% in fiscal 2020, partly due to negative mix and higher costs in the supply chain related to COVID-19.
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Altri acquisti recenti solo CBOE (il VIX, The Last Dance...
